The looming Civil War in The Republican Party

I was talking with a friend the other day who is a high-level figure in the Republican Party here in California. I discussed with him my theory that there is a Civil War brewing inside the Party. Two election cycles of defeats have made the party meetings and discussions very rancorous. Moderates and Conservatives have been wrestling for control of the party, and in the end, only one side can win.

"It's too late" he said, "the war is already here."

He went on to explain in great detail about some of the battles that have been fought in the party on multiple levels. There are battles at the local, state and national levels right now, and almost all of them are occurring at the same time. He explained the situation in the Republican Party of Los Angeles County, where there was a sudden coup last year involving a chaotic meeting where voters removed longtime head Linda Boyd from power. I didn't know Linda Boyd personally, but she and her husband had been important figures in the party for a number of years. However, other individuals in the party felt she was being destructive because she and her husband Doug opted to support Democrat James Hahn for Mayor in 2005 instead of Republican Walter Moore. It appears to be true that Doug Boyd was actually paid $30,000 to support James Hahn.

If these accusations are true, then I fully approve of their ouster. It makes no sense to have party leaders who do not support members of their own party. I have heard that there was some complaining and poor behavior by Walter Moore over this issue of non-support of his candidacy in 2005 . Even though I disagree with Walter on many issues, this is one where he would have received my full support. As a party, the Republicans have to support their own. On this issue, there is no room for compromise. Walter may have been a moderate, but you don't throw him under the bus for a liberal Democrat just because the Democrat wrote you a big check.

This is what is happening to Republicans at every level right now. We are suffering in elections because the candidates are abdicating their principles. The Boyds are only one example. Look at Arlen Specter. He is a contemptible and desperate man who only cares about holding onto power. He needs to go, and so do many other career politicians just like him. The Civil War that is brewing is happening because we need to get rid of people like Specter. If we don't, we run the risk of becoming a Party that radio show host Mark Levin says "stands for nothing, appeals to nobody, and is only supported because the alternatives are worse."

I am a Conservative. I believe that Conservatives should be in charge of the Party, and that when we regain control, the Party will start winning again. We have to stop letting Moderates into power. They have shown a tendency to abandon core principles and core value systems. For too long, we Conservatives have been told that we are the ones who need to change. That we need to be more flexible and follow the mood of the electorate. No! I reject this thinking. Leaders who operate in this manner are showing that they have no coherent value system. Conservatism is all about freedom and opportunity for the individual. It was the guiding faith of our Founding Fathers. Abandoning our principles and core values is the antithesis of what we are all about. Moderates have shown us that they can do this easily. That is why Moderates lose elections.

The party is so fractured right now, that the media can't even identify who the leader of the Party is right now. New RNC Chairman Michael Steele stepped up to the plate and told everyone that he is now the boss. That is nice, but he is so new that people aren't comfortable with him yet, and he has already had a few slip-ups while speaking publicly for the party. The Mainstream Media decided to label radio show host Rush Limbaugh the new leader of the party. He is a respected and trusted voice among Conservatives, but he is an entertainer and not the party leader. So...who will lead us into the next election cycle? We have many good options.

Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee are favorites among the Conservatives.

Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani are popular with Moderates. Bobby Jindal and Newt Gingrich haven't openly declared their intentions, but they seem to have some support also. Some people have mentioned Eric Cantor or General Petraeus. But it is also possible a new figure will rise to the challenge. Our next leader could be toiling in obscurity right now. The future is always full of surprises.

In 2004 , heavy favorite and lock-certain-nominee Senator Hillary Clinton was making plans for moving back into the White House in 2008. Barack Obama, on the other hand, was only hoping he would be fortunate enough to win his election in Illinois to become a United States Senator.

New Hampshire Prediction: Barack and Mitt

"I am so honored to have had this opportunity. Though this campaign is ending, I will continue to fight for change for working families and to elect a Democrat in November."

Okay its doesn't take much in the way of genius to predict that Barack Obama will win the Democratic Primary. Obama's margin of victory will be big, somewhere between 11-13 points. This will add further fuel to the Hillary is dropping out stories that began floating today. Hillary didn't help matters any by crying.

On the other hand John McCain will not - as conventional wisdom might say - win the primary. This is due to the same factor that boosts Obama's margin - maverick, moderate Republicans who will - as is allowed under New Hampshire law - cross over to vote for Barack. Partly, due to the rock star appeal of Obama, partly as a way to stick it to the Clinton's. The loss of moderate voters in the Republican primary boosts Romney's chances; as well as the fact that Romney is quite popular with Republicans in this state that neighbors his home of Massachusetts.

Within the next seven days - maybe as early as Wednesday we'll see Fred Thompson and Bill Richardson drop out. There will be no need yet for also rans such as Dennis Kucinich, Mike Gravel or Ron Paul to drop out - that's one of the advantages of being a lower tier candidate - you can stay in longer.

The upcoming Michigan GOP primary will go to Romney (his father was Governor there and his brother, a former candidate for Attorney General servers on the Board of Trustees for Michigan State University). Hillary once had a commanding lead there but with African Americans making up a significant portion of the Democratic electorate, Barack will repeat his winning formula.

Following that, wins in South Carolina should go to Huckabee and Obama and Nevada shows promise for Clinton (unless a major contingent of California Democrats led by Valley Doll manage to travel to the Silver State to stage a major effort for Obama) and will be an easy win for McCain. All that leads up to Florida where Giuliani will appeal to former New Yorkers and Cubans and likely win. Hillary should have won Florida big - and could still best Obama - but the three weeks between now and then will be very tough on her and she will have a hard time restraining Obama-mania from infecting the Sunshine State.

I predict that Hillary will drop out just after Super Tuesday when Obama will likely kick ass in just about every state but perhaps New York and New Jersey.

Mayor Sam's Hotsheet for Monday

Is Eric Garcetti on Barack Obama's short list for Vice Presidential candidates? Not likely but he joined City Controller Laura Chick at a rally to support the popular Presidential candidate.

The LA Downtown News has come out with their "80 in 08" list of people, projects and events that "will power Downtown this year." This blog was honored to be on that list under the category of "five blogs downtowners will visit frequently in 2008."

latinopoliticsblog.com questions the strategic wisdom of the Hillary Clinton campaign having Mayor Villaraigosa tag along in New Hampshire. More importantly - the blog drives home - why isn't the Mayor at home solving problems instead of playing Presidential politics out of state?

So much for "We Report You Decide" at Fox News. Maverick Republican Presidential Candidate Ron Paul has been bounced from their on-air debates as well as third party candidates. An activist group, rockthedebates.org is pressing to get pledges from the Democratic and Republican candidates to debate Libertarians, Greens and other third party candidates. So far Paul and Mike Huckabee have signed on; Barack Obama, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney are opposed. What are they afraid of?

The one candidate who could take down the incumbent in the 35th Congressional District here in California. Ted Hayes has announced his candidacy for the seat currently held by Maxine Waters.

There's a slew of propositions on the ballot next month that deal with Indian Gaming with some tribes and their money on one side and some on the others and some of them lined up with horse tracks, all in the name of stopping competition. This all points to the fact that Indian Gaming has become a big scam and if we're going to have gambling in California, lets open up casino ownership to anyone.

Like many LA denizens, bloger Los Angelista finds lot of reasons to hate LA - including gangs, traffic and Mayor Villaraigosa - but every reason to love her own neighborhood.

We covered the story of the Disney Company turning NIMBY when someone wanted to build condos near Disneyland. Looks like Disney may have run the developer off with the threat of a ballot measure to shut them down.

Mayor Sam Calls It; Winners Barack, Huckabee; Losers Villaraigosa, Trujillo and McCain

Big winners tonight in Iowa is Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee as this blog predicted (though did not expect Huckabee to do as well as he did).

Major blow to Team Hilary. No more campaign trips for Tony Villar!

Next prediction: McCain drops out soon. He has nowhere to go, he's washed up, someone of his stature should not finish so low. Thompson can hang in a bit but will go soon. Romney and Giuliani go big guns on negatives against Huckabee.

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) - Sen. Barack Obama, bidding to become the nation's
first black president, captured the Iowa caucuses Thursday night, opening test
in the race for the 2008 Democratic nomination. Mike Huckabee rode a wave of
support from evangelical Christians to victory in the Republican caucuses.

Obama, 46 and a first-term senator from Illinois, eased past a
high-powered field that included Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, the
former first lady, and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, the party's
2004 vice presidential nominee.

Among Republicans, Huckabee, a preacher
turned politician, handily defeated Mitt Romney despite being outspent by tens
of millions of dollars, and deciding in the campaign's final days to scrap
television commercials that would have assailed the former Massachusetts
governor.

Obama, who campaigned as an apostle of change in Washington,
was gaining 36 percent support among Democrats., Edwards, who ran promising to
battle the special interests in the capital, and Clinton, who stressed her
experience, both were drawing about 30 percent.

Huckabee's triumph was
more robust. He was winning 34 percent support, compared to 25 percent for
Romney. Former Sen. Fred Thompson and Sen. John McCain battled for third place.

Prediction: Barack Obama Will Win Iowa Caucus

Everyone knows I have a ton of relatives in Iowa and spent some time there in September. Hillary Clinton may think she's poised to win but I predict an upset by the Illinois Senator for several reasons. One, he's from a neighboring state (and when there is a significant candidate from a mid-western state they usually win Iowa), two Oprah is boosting Barack big time and she's huge in middle class places like Iowa, three, Antonio Villaraigosa is doing no favors for the New York Senator in his appearances there and four, a last minute slime campaign on Barack's religious affiliation - the United Church of Christ - is going to backfire. The theologically liberal but stylistically conservative mainline protestant denomination has a deep history and lots of members in Iowa.

On the Republican side its neck and neck between Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, with an edge to Huckabee.