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Thursday, January 03, 2008

Mayor Sam Calls It; Winners Barack, Huckabee; Losers Villaraigosa, Trujillo and McCain

Big winners tonight in Iowa is Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee as this blog predicted (though did not expect Huckabee to do as well as he did).

Major blow to Team Hilary. No more campaign trips for Tony Villar!

Next prediction: McCain drops out soon. He has nowhere to go, he's washed up, someone of his stature should not finish so low. Thompson can hang in a bit but will go soon. Romney and Giuliani go big guns on negatives against Huckabee.
DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) - Sen. Barack Obama, bidding to become the nation's
first black president, captured the Iowa caucuses Thursday night, opening test
in the race for the 2008 Democratic nomination. Mike Huckabee rode a wave of
support from evangelical Christians to victory in the Republican caucuses.

Obama, 46 and a first-term senator from Illinois, eased past a
high-powered field that included Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, the
former first lady, and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, the party's
2004 vice presidential nominee.

Among Republicans, Huckabee, a preacher
turned politician, handily defeated Mitt Romney despite being outspent by tens
of millions of dollars, and deciding in the campaign's final days to scrap
television commercials that would have assailed the former Massachusetts
governor.

Obama, who campaigned as an apostle of change in Washington,
was gaining 36 percent support among Democrats., Edwards, who ran promising to
battle the special interests in the capital, and Clinton, who stressed her
experience, both were drawing about 30 percent.

Huckabee's triumph was
more robust. He was winning 34 percent support, compared to 25 percent for
Romney. Former Sen. Fred Thompson and Sen. John McCain battled for third place.

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39 Comments:

Blogger Debbie said:

Being an Obama Girl, I was soooooo bummed out when Mayor Villar gave his support to Hillary (this was back when I wasn't sorry I voted for him and thought his endorsement was worth something ... blech). Since then, Mirthala (who?) happened and life for Tonio has never been the same.

THANK GAWD HE BACKED HILLARY!! L.A.'s gift to the Obama Campaign.

Happy New Year David Plouffe! :)

xoxo

January 03, 2008 8:20 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

...and just think, only 49 states to go!

January 03, 2008 8:44 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I love this blog, but tens of millions of people predicted the same results, Mayor Sam.

When you toot your horn for doing nothing special, it makes you seem like.....Tony Villar.

January 03, 2008 8:50 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Or Zuma Dogg!

January 03, 2008 9:11 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Finally, Mayor Sam called something right! So did everyone else, but hey,
give the mayor his props!

January 03, 2008 9:17 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Way off about McCain.

McCain will win New Hampshire.

Dumbass.

January 03, 2008 9:38 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

No Dumbass Rudy will win NH.

January 03, 2008 10:46 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

It doesn't matter which konservative kiss-ass Republican wins in New Hampshire, but Mayor Sam can rest assured that he's wrong in counting McCain out after just the Iowa results.

McCain will do better in New Hampshire and then it's on to the next three weeks of slugfests.

January 03, 2008 10:52 PM  

Blogger Edward Headington said:

I agree with 9:38 Anon. McCain will likely win New Hampshire and pick up some of that Big Mo. At least that's the conventional wisdom. At this point, I also don't see how Edwards and Clinton stop Obama from back-to-back wins.

If any of you are interested, Bill Boyarsky is going to do a talk at the LA Press Club this Thursday night, January 10th. Bill's out on the campaign trail and will have some first-hand insight for the talk. He'll also be talking about and signing his new book on the Big Daddy, Jess Unruh.

I'm curious if any local folks are heading to Las Vegas to help out on the Silver State's primary on the 19th.

January 03, 2008 11:24 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Bill Boyarsky what an old, feeble joke he's become. Reduced to writing for LA Times hater Kevin Rodedick.

January 03, 2008 11:32 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Did you see Antonio getting pushed way off camera at the Hillary concession speech? So much for his appeal - he didn't deliver and now he will be relegated to sweeping up the leaves in New Hampshire.

I wonder what Parke makes out of all this. Will Trujillo the driver go the way of Giuliani's former driver. Stay tuned.....

January 04, 2008 12:24 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Both my wife and I are Republicans and will doubtless support the Republican nominee.

But when Obama was speaking last night, she turned to me and said "There is the next President of the United States."

That's scary, but very, very possible.

However, one must not underestimate the raw potential of the Clintonian smear machine. They have smeared and literally killed so many I have lost count.

Right now, Barack Obama has a huge target on his back; not from an outside assasin, but from the Clinton surrogates. Watch them turn out in droves to smear his ass all the way from New Hampshire to South Carolina to Florida. Chief among them are James Carville, Lanny Davis and Paul Begala, but three are lots of others, including the chief smearer, Hillary herself, who has a reputation for cold attack on anyone who gets in her way. ("A vast right wing conspiracy...")

I love it when thieves fall out...

January 04, 2008 1:54 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

1:54 a.m. ONE WHO KNOWS:

My reaction to Obama was the same as that of your wife, too! Obama's speech was reminiscent of the Kennedy era of hope and change. He was wonderful!

That said, I once thought the Kennedy attack machine was invincible; however, I am convinced it will not work the second time around. Bill Clinton has shown himself to be, in addition to all the scandals and lies we witnessed for 8 years, a MEAN SPIRITED, ANGRY, VENGEFUL former President who wants a second chance to redeem himself.

He has lost his luster and appears to be diminished and tattered. It is ever so apparent that he can now be classified as a 'has been'.

Obama still looks like a boy in knee pants to me; but he is the only one left standing for the Dems.

As a fellow Republican, I think we're faced with the preacher v. the new Martin Luther King. May the best man win!

January 04, 2008 3:04 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

1:54 a.m. ONE WHO KNOWS:

My reaction to Obama was the same as that of your wife, too! Obama's speech was reminiscent of the Kennedy era of hope and change. He was wonderful!

That said, I once thought the Kennedy attack machine was invincible; however, I am convinced it will not work the second time around. Bill Clinton has shown himself to be, in addition to all the scandals and lies we witnessed for 8 years, a MEAN SPIRITED, ANGRY, VENGEFUL former President who wants a second chance to redeem himself.

He has lost his luster and appears to be diminished and tattered. It is ever so apparent that he can now be classified as a 'has been'.

Obama still looks like a boy in knee pants to me; but he is the only one left standing for the Dems.

As a fellow Republican, I think we're faced with the preacher v. the new Martin Luther King. May the best man win!

January 04, 2008 3:04 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Oh go get some sleep. It's 3 AM. You Republicans are dreaming. You all hate the Clintons so bad, you'll settle for anything.

But you're all Republicans. Nice.

Blogging for Jesus!

While Hillary kicks Obama's butt.

Truillo is without a job? Why is that? Has Clinton fired her CA people? Nope, I don't think so.

January 04, 2008 3:36 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

3:36 a.m.

Mind your own business, creepo! What the heall are you doing up all nite...nothing better to do????

Fuck off!

January 04, 2008 4:38 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

OMG, I am SOOO in agreement with the above posters about Barack Obama!!! He is like the next JFK, ...err, I mean MLK. Or Abraham Lincoln!!! Whatever! It is so cool!! I got chills down my spine. But I'm a Republican, so, you know, I'll support the Republican candidate -- not our savior Barack Obama (cause I'm a Republican, I should point out).

January 04, 2008 5:03 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Barack inspired me to clean my room and eat all of my veggies.

January 04, 2008 6:53 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Huckabee will NOT be the nominee; he cannot beat Obama.

It will be McCain or Thompson, or perhaps Guiliani.

Romney is done; put a fork in him, and Huckabee will just plain run out of steam and money. Remember, 60% of Iowa Republicans identify themselves as Evangelical Christians. Of course he rang a bell with them.

I keep seeing Thompson as the answer; he is extremely knowledgable and has not changed his positions on anything, ever.

And, he has the star power and composure of Ronald Reagan.

January 04, 2008 7:53 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

3:36

There's Parke not getting any sleep again.

Clinton will clean house before California. Parke both you and Trujillo will be out. Maybe you can hire Trujillo to be your driver.

What a shame. With all the people Antonio knew coming up through the political muck he is stuck with the only person who still sticks by him - his driver!

If Hillary wins maybe she can nominate him for head of Homeland Security.

January 04, 2008 8:27 AM  

Blogger Mayor Sam said:

One Who Knows is right.

Obamamania is about to start. Many of the conditions that existed in 1960 to propel JFK are so again. And like JFK, Barack is going against a mean spirited entrenched Democratic establishment machine (the Clintons just as JFK had to go aginst LBJ in the primaries).

Indeed the Clinton machine has been ruthless and formidable. Bill Clinton is a political genius.

The difference this time is that Bill's not at the head of the ticket. And Hillary is no Bill. People that hated Bill hated him passionately but more people really can not stand Hillary. Bill on the other hand was LOVED by his supporters and he charmed them like few other Presidents such as Reagan at least. Hillary has her supporters but they are nowhere near as passionate as Bill's. I know people who are supporting her - but they are not excited about her. Even some of the Hillary supporters I know really like Barack but are choosing Hillary because they feel she has more experience and/or they want to vote for a woman.

It's that passion that extends to support. Does Hillary make people passionate? Hardly. She should have the Oprah support; that would have made her win Iowa - all those housewives jumping up to vote for her. However they are not. She is not their person.

Barack is going to quickly gain steam among minorities, young people and even some senior citizens. Younger, yuppie Democrats are going to go for him as well as an army of 40somethings who are just coming into their own politically as well as the realization they're about to be handed control of the world. They will see Barack and his wife Michelle - both born AFTER JFK was elected (Michelle after he was assassinated) - as THEIR generation. On the other hand Hillary, Edwards, Richardson, etc. - especially Hillary - are the last gasp of the oh so annoying and time to go away baby boom generation.

I do agree with the poster who says Huckabee will have a tough time beating Obama. I think he'd have a difficult time beating Hillary as well. Therefore the Republicans will have to nominate Rudy, Thompson or McCain. I don't think the Bushies want McCain so that could hurt his chances. Romney doesn't know if he's a social conservative or a fiscal libertarian which is why he lost Iowa and why he will lose New Hampshire.

The problem for Rudy and Thompson and even McCain is that Huckabee will likely take most of the south. So between the three of them they're going to have to cream most of the East, Midwest and West - and if they split it, it becomes problematic.

We'll have a clearer picture of the GOP race after NH. But its possible to could be a race with no real frontrunner for a while.

On the other hand, I think Barack is going to sail to the nomination. And he will win California.

January 04, 2008 8:37 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

All the cable reporters were saying Bill Clinton hurt Hillary by going out and speaking about himself. Also, when Hillary's people went negative on Obama it backfired. Obama had more young people voting for him. That's what this country needs, fresh blood. Watch Clinton team go negative and start smearing and coming up with lies against Obama. They're despersate right now. Trijillo, Parke, Antonio are all corrupt slimy people who love to throw dirt cause they have nothing else to show people about their candidate. I see Obama kicking butt in CA.

January 04, 2008 8:53 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen (removes hat and bows low with flourish):

From this day forward, you bloody sots will no longer be able to say that (uses cry-baby loser voice) “Captain Jack can’t make winning predictions” for yesterday I PREDICTED that Barack Obama would win the Democratic Iowa Caucasus, savvy? (Smiles) Actually, I merely predicted the obvious. But let’s not talk about that. Let’s talk about something else, shall we? Yes, lets.

We’ve heard from an extremely reliable source that the storm poised to hit us will hit us hard. As of 7:00am this morning, the sustained winds on the Pacific side of the San Francisco Peninsula were holding steady at 45 mph….and this is BEFORE the storm makes landfall. One can only wonder what awaits us later on in the day. (Checks compass and looks worried) Yes sots, this one will be a rather bad one. IF His Nibbs were wise, he would have stayed home to oversee the preparations for this storm, for what preparations that have already been made are, if you will, not enough based upon our colleagues to the North, savvy?

(Smiles) On a lighter note, we’ve managed to round up the Mother Superior and several of her sisters from a quiet little abbey here in the City. Naturally, they were quite excited to share their thoughts about His Nibbs, so we thought we’d let them take center stage. The Bard will direct them while the original Grinderman and several of the musically inclined members of Bonnet’s crew will provide the background orchestra.

And now Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the Little Sisters of the Poor. (Crew claps and nuns step up to sing)

(one nun at a time)
He climbs a tree
To be on T.V.

He’s got breath just like a bear.

He waltzs in and out of town
And has a sordid affair.

And covering up his ears
Is his expensively cut hair!

I've even seen him practicing before speaking on the air.

He's always late for meetings,

But his charm is very real.

He's always late for everything

Except for every meal

I hate to have to say it but I very firmly feel

(all together)
The Mayor’s not an asset to the City!

(one nun)
I'd like to say a word in his behalf:
The Mayor makes me laugh

(all nuns surprised)

(Mother Abbess)
How do you solve a problem like the Mayor?
What can you say when he is not in town??

(one nun)
How do you find a word that means the Mayor?

(one nun at a time)
A philanderer?

Liability?

A clown!

(Mother Abbess)
Many a thing you’d really like to tell him.
Few are the things he actually understands.
But what’s a nun to say?
With him its “Pay to Play”

How can he keep his pecker in his pants?

Oh how do you solve a problem like the Mayor?

Smile when you say “Obama is our man!!”

When your with him
You’re confused
Disgusted
And feel used
And you never know exactly where he stands

(one nun at a time)
Predictable as weather

He's as flighty as a feather

He's no darling

He's a demon

He’s a man!

He'd out pester any pest
To get money from its nest

He can throw a temper tantrum like no other!

He’s immoral

He is wild

He's a riddle

He's a child!

He’s a headache

He’s no angel

HE’S A MOTHER #&$*%!!!

(Bard turns around and looks shocked. Nuns make sign of the cross and look contrite)

(all at once)
How do you solve a problem like the Mayor?
What can you say when he is not in town??
How do you find a word that means the Mayor?

A philanderer?
Liability?
A clown!


Many a thing you’d really like to tell him.
Few are the things he actually understands.
But what’s a nun to say?
With him its “Pay to Play”
How can he keep his pecker in his pants?
Oh how do you solve a problem like the Mayor?
Smile when you say “Obama is our man!!”


(Crew applauds wildly and nuns step down. Captain Jack steps back up to speak)

Oh, and by the way for all of you, including my own crew, who were planning to meet tonight at the Redwood for “Drinks On Me”, we’ll be cancelling that particular event on account of the approaching storm. Any and all pirates would be well advised to stay home this evening, savvy?

January 04, 2008 9:41 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

One needs to be careful and not mistake hopeful and flowing rhetoric for ability and skill. It is easy to get caught up and think that because Obama says these great things that he can actually carry them out.

I don't think he can.

January 04, 2008 10:02 AM  

Blogger Debbie said:

Captain Jack, Bard, Nuns, et al

Once again ... a homerun. Someone on the crew should really be saving these pearls and creating some sort of leather-bound edition. Hey ... put it up on eBay and donate the the winnings to Obama'08!

I like it.

You guys rock so hard. Take care. Keep dry.

xoxo

January 04, 2008 12:20 PM  

Blogger Debbie said:

I'm curious if any local folks are heading to Las Vegas to help out on the Silver State's primary on the 19th.


Mr. Headington,

I do believe that there is a Valley coalition traveling to NV on behalf of Obama. They've been planning this trip for months and have actively been recruiting volunteers to go. In addition, there have been a few "Camp Obama"'s held in Burbank and at CSUN that were more or less training and instruction for NV and beyond. Now, supporters are being heavily courted into becoming precinct captains. The organizational skills of this campaign are so on top of the ball right now, it's a wonder to see in action.

Mr. Obama is an amazing grass-roots organizer, and that experience has led him to surround himself with other amazing grassroots organizers, and those are the people who know ... really know, how to get the word out, and how to get the people out to vote.

It's going to be interesting (as well as exciting) to see how it all plays out, and if the momentum can hold.

xoxo

January 04, 2008 12:32 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Pirates afraid of a little rain?!

Landlubbers!

Best to stay in your nun outfits singing showtunes!

January 04, 2008 6:27 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

1:54 is right.

Obama has got a big bulls-eye on his back now. The Clintons are gonna go after him hard.

The Clintons haven't lost an election since 1980. Bill was trailing his democratic gubernatorial primary opponent in 1990, but then the slime machine started up & Bill was re-elected.

Say what you will about Bill & Hillary--they won't go down (no pun intended) without a fight.

Let the bloodbath begin!!!!!

January 04, 2008 7:02 PM  

Blogger Mayor Sam said:

Honestly lots of parallels here between now and 1968.

Interestingly 1968 also had Republican candidates named Romney (Mitt's dad), and a Mayor of New York City.

unpopular war
unpopular, weak president
no incumbent in the race
disastifaction brewing on both ends of the political spectrum

Hillary is the new Humphrey and Obama is the new RFK. Huckabee is the new Nixon. McCain is the new Rockefeller.

January 04, 2008 7:19 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I think some of you are too young to remember history as it was happening. This wouldn't be the first time that someone was all fired up and enthusiastic, but fizzled in the end.

We have a long way to go.

Madame President will kick ass. She's a Clinton, after all.

January 04, 2008 7:27 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Mayor Sam, as much as I hate disagreeing with you (*coughs*) Hubert Humphrey wasn't a woman and RFK wasn't of African-American descent. Huckabee would probably kick your ass for calling him the "new" Nixon (that's Bush) and calling the guy with the campaign most in debt "Rockefeller" almost boggles the mind.

Seriously, if you want to use the most general of generalities to make this stretch to '68, be my guest -- but college campuses are not in an uproar over the draft, music and culture have very little influence (different from 40 years ago) and the baby boomers are hitting 60.

2008 is 2008. Unless Edwards makes a major move (and that would mean he would have to carry his own county this time) THIS is history.

Now let's sit back and enjoy, shall we?! Where's that Clamato beer in a can?!

January 04, 2008 8:52 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Something strange is going on in the Mayor's office. People are leaving...rumor has it that Kevin Acebo has left the office. Either people are jumping ship or the mayor is looking for salary savings. Is it possible the Pirates are attacking???? What's really going on in the Mayor's office???

January 04, 2008 10:01 PM  

Blogger Sara De la Guerra said:

Edwards is the candidate that can take the country -- what are y'all thinking?

January 04, 2008 11:37 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Lots of people have left the Mayor's office in the last 18 months. If Acebo or anyone else is leaving now, it's nothing new. Happens all the time.

January 05, 2008 12:25 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

someone posted this under the name "mayor villaraigosa". that's a no-no unless you are mayor villaraigosa.

but there is nothing about the content that merits deletion, so here is the original post:

anonymous said...

Mayor Sam and Zuma Dogg are both the smartest people I have ever met. They should be president and vice-president. With these two running the country we would once again be a world power with jobs and prosperity for all.

Let's start a grass root campaign to elect Mayor Sam and Zuma into the white house. This could be a moment in history which we will all remember forever.

I will "write-in" Mayor Sam and Zuma for the President and Vice-President on my ballot, will you join me and do the same?

Mayor Sam and Zuma you are my heros!!!!

January 05, 2008 6:09 AM  

Blogger Edward Headington said:

Thanks Valley Doll. I'm probably going to be out there in Vegas the last few days to help out with the Obama campaign.

The rest of you:

Any predictions on who Biden and Dodd will endorse?

Does Gore stay neutral or make his endorsement count the most by doing it sooner rather than later?

Any thoughts on what Ron Paul's next move is? Bloomberg?

What's next for Hunter and Gravel? Does it matter?

January 05, 2008 12:04 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Biden praised Bill in the Times blog and to a Concord NH paper as being most knowledgeable on foreign affairs and Hillary as most experienced, but already in Iowa he'd told supporters at the caucus to jump to obama's side because he's jealous of the Clintons.

Dodd is going to try again, but word is that 'another white New England senator" in another New England state is TOO familiar and over-qualified.

Obama's policy statements have been totally unsubstantive, all talk no detail, a nice-sounding shell, and way too liberal on law enforcement, border enforcement and naive about foreign affairs.

I lived abroad as a kid with my diplomat dad and I know a lot more than he -- I'm a boring white guy, though. Racism shouldn't be the issue in this race, as it has been for Biden, Dodd, Hillary, even half-Hispanic too common Ricardson.

January 05, 2008 12:22 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Clinton Operation Runs Aground Against Obama Movement in Milford
by FOXNews.com
Friday, January 4, 2008

By Major Garrett

MILFORD, N.H. — In politics there are operations and movements. There is an operation in every campaign and the best one always wins. Unless it comes up against a movement.

Operations understand the fundamentals of a campaign and execute them with awe-inspiring precision — everything from the candidate’s message and TV ads, to voter identification and mobilization, to interest group wooing and massaging, to on-site bunting and balloons.

In a national campaign this is a massive undertaking. Getting all these fundamentals right signals important attributes about a future president: discipline, organization, vision and diligence — they always have and always will.

Movements, however, are different and they can sometimes rise up and challenge superior political operations. Movements possess passionate supporters, one or two over-arching causes and a leader with genuine charisma who can attract people even without the well-financed voter identification efforts possessed by a rival’s “operation.”

Movements can be powerful and movements can win. But in my experience, most movements die because they can’t sustain themselves against the overwhelming pressure applied by a superior national “operation.”

I’ve witnessed the following movements come and go: Dean in 2004, Pat Buchanan in 1996 and Ross Perot in 1992. They all lost. In fact, they didn’t come close. They touched a chord, drew big crowds, attracted massive press coverage and even drove important issues into the debate (Dean the Iraq war, Buchanan trade, Perot the deficit). But they all lost to the superior operations because one or many things broke down, chief among them the leader’s inability to broaden the audience beyond the original “movement” believers.

What we are seeing in the Democratic race for the presidency, I am now convinced, is a movement that may in fact succeed.

It is the Obama movement.

The results in Iowa expanded the known universe of what was possible in Democratic Party politics. Some of the party’s most brilliant and successful leaders have competed in Iowa (save for Bill Clinton, but I’ll be back to him in a minute), and not one of them came close to doing what Barack Obama achieved on Thursday with his win over Hillary Clinton. What everyone thought they knew about Iowa and the caucuses is now irrelevant. Obama changed the game and changed it forever. That is a massive, movement-like accomplishment and what’s even more amazing is this: Obama said it was possible and it happened.

The distance between theory and reality is often what crushes movement because what is dreamed for rarely comes to pass. It did in Iowa and that matters not only at a political level, it matters enormously at a psychological level because movements thrive on the intangible emotional synergy of hope, aspirations and dewy-eyed dreaming — yes, all those things wise observers of politics have long scorned because they flame out and die so frequently.

What’s different about Obama and this moment is the movement has operational tendencies, which is to say it doesn’t live off of its good intentions and good vibrations. This movement gets in the trenches and fights it out — but on its terms, with its gusto and with its inventive tactical precision.

Never was that on display more clearly than at the 100 Club Dinner here Friday night. This is the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s big celebration. It was held in a big dome covering a football field surrounded by a synthetic running track — the biggest venue ever for the event.

What you need to understand about the dinner and the venue is this: it was supposed to be a Clinton room.

The Clinton brand name among Democrats is golden. The party love affair goes back to before 1992 when the Clintons first began campaigning for the White House in 1991. The legend of “The Comeback Kid” and Bill and Hill’s regular and celebratory visits back to the state throughout their presidency and thereafter have made them something akin the party royalty here.

So last night was the perfect night for the Clinton operation to demonstrate that Iowa was a fluke, New Hampshire is home and things will be different on primary Tuesday.

It didn’t happen. The operation tried but just like in Iowa it lost to the Obama movement.

Hillary Clinton’s tables were well within camera range of the TV riser and far closer to the stage than the Obama tables (this is what you can do when your operation seeks to own the room). The Obama tables were on the far end of the domed facility, near the trailers holding the portable toilets.

When Clinton hit the stage, her well-positioned supporters rose up en masse and waved her signs carrying her new one word slogan: “Ready.” It was an impressive crowd and full of energy. By standard operational measurement, it all worked really well. The crowd was bunched right before the TV riser and the “Ready” placards waved happily before the cameras and Clinton beamed at what must have felt like a warm and nerve-soothing homecoming of sorts.

But the first indication of trouble came when she warned that Democrats must not be beguiled by “false hopes” (an obvious shot at Obama) and a ripple of boos arose from the Obama tables.

Clinton’s stump speech was warmly received — of that there can be no doubt — and she certainly appeared to have charmed if not won the room (after all, it was supposed to be hers).

Then Bill Richardson spoke and the Obama movement swung into action.

As Richardson boomed about ending the war in Iraq, team Obama pre-positioned men, women and young adults with Obama signs smack-dab in front of the stage. Hundreds upon hundreds marched silently and cheerfully (some were literally dancing barely suppressed jigs) from their distant tables and into the center of the “football” field, clogging all available space and encircling the tables of the amazed and slightly disconcerted Clinton supporters.

As soon as Richardson finished and Obama was waiting to be announced, Obama supporters hefted placards in bouncing waves and began chanting “Fired Up, Ready to Go” as the fire marshals frantically raced around to keep lanes open for people to walk around the TV riser. Rhythmic chants of “Obama” also arose in the arena as the round O-shaped Obama placards appeared to float by the hundreds in mid-air creating a mesmerizing sea of Obama signs that rocked and rolled before an empty stage.

So intense was the crowd up front, that an announcement was made that Obama wouldn’t be brought out until the crowd returned to their distant seats in Siberia. The Obama legions booed, made a token move away from the stage, but largely held their ground.

When Obama took the stage the response was thunderous and jubilant, three times as loud as that for Clinton. Obama said “Thank you” as a means to quiet the crowd, one woman yelled out “Thank YOU” and the crowd burst out in a roar and cheer.

“In four days you can do what Iowa did last night,” Obama said.

Obama, his voice hoarse, moved through an abbreviated stump speech and called for “one nation, one people.”

“We started last night, attracting not only the tried and true Democrat, but the independent and the Republican.”

On this night, the speeches mattered less than the moment. And at an event filled with party die-hards supposedly devoted body and soul to Hillary and the Clinton cause, the Obama demonstration generated more body and more soul and rolled over the Clinton operation like a tractor tire over an anthill.

And that is why I believe we are witnessing the birth of a movement that may be on the verge of defeating an operation. That would be rare enough on its own. But this particular contest is of generational importance because the Clinton operation is the most formidable modern American politics has ever seen and it would take quite a movement to knock it down.

And in Milford, on Clinton’s best turf, it did.

January 05, 2008 1:20 PM  

Blogger Edward Headington said:

Thanks for the Garrett story. Interesting. This just came out on the AP:

McCain overtakes Romney in NH poll

Liz Sidoto
Associated Press
January 5, 2007

John McCain overtook Mitt Romney for the New Hampshire lead in a new poll released Saturday, three days before the nation's first primary.

Taken in the two days following the Iowa caucuses, the poll shows Romney losing ground after the former Massachusetts governor's disappointing second-place showing in the leadoff state; McCain continued his steady climb since the Arizona senator's campaign hit a low point last summer.

Mike Huckabee, the Iowa victor, didn't get a bounce in the survey from his Iowa triumph, meaning the race in New Hampshire has become a two-man fight.

McCain, who won New Hampshire's primary in his first bid eight years ago and wants a repeat, had 33 percent to Romney's 27 percent in the poll. All others trailed by double-digits; Rudy Giuliani had 14percent while Mike Huckabee had 11 and Ron Paul had 9 in the CNN-WMUR poll.

Read more at http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080105/ap_po/republicans_rdp&printer=1;_ylt=AgScHCduvfUH8ozcqSAeWSdB5494.

January 05, 2008 4:04 PM  

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