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Monday, January 07, 2008

New Hampshire Prediction: Barack and Mitt

"I am so honored to have had this opportunity. Though this campaign is ending, I will continue to fight for change for working families and to elect a Democrat in November."

Okay its doesn't take much in the way of genius to predict that Barack Obama will win the Democratic Primary. Obama's margin of victory will be big, somewhere between 11-13 points. This will add further fuel to the Hillary is dropping out stories that began floating today. Hillary didn't help matters any by crying.

On the other hand John McCain will not - as conventional wisdom might say - win the primary. This is due to the same factor that boosts Obama's margin - maverick, moderate Republicans who will - as is allowed under New Hampshire law - cross over to vote for Barack. Partly, due to the rock star appeal of Obama, partly as a way to stick it to the Clinton's. The loss of moderate voters in the Republican primary boosts Romney's chances; as well as the fact that Romney is quite popular with Republicans in this state that neighbors his home of Massachusetts.

Within the next seven days - maybe as early as Wednesday we'll see Fred Thompson and Bill Richardson drop out. There will be no need yet for also rans such as Dennis Kucinich, Mike Gravel or Ron Paul to drop out - that's one of the advantages of being a lower tier candidate - you can stay in longer.

The upcoming Michigan GOP primary will go to Romney (his father was Governor there and his brother, a former candidate for Attorney General servers on the Board of Trustees for Michigan State University). Hillary once had a commanding lead there but with African Americans making up a significant portion of the Democratic electorate, Barack will repeat his winning formula.

Following that, wins in South Carolina should go to Huckabee and Obama and Nevada shows promise for Clinton (unless a major contingent of California Democrats led by Valley Doll manage to travel to the Silver State to stage a major effort for Obama) and will be an easy win for McCain. All that leads up to Florida where Giuliani will appeal to former New Yorkers and Cubans and likely win. Hillary should have won Florida big - and could still best Obama - but the three weeks between now and then will be very tough on her and she will have a hard time restraining Obama-mania from infecting the Sunshine State.

I predict that Hillary will drop out just after Super Tuesday when Obama will likely kick ass in just about every state but perhaps New York and New Jersey.

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16 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said:

'
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Okay its doesn't take much in the way of genius to predict that Barack Obama will win the Democratic Primary.

********************

And apparently it doesn’t take much in the way of genius to write for this blog.

January 08, 2008 12:09 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

So who gets the republican nomination?

January 08, 2008 12:10 AM  

Blogger Michael "Mayor Sam" Higby said:

12:09 - nor to cut and paste and comment on it.

January 08, 2008 12:12 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Nice pic Mayor! You sorta look like Tom Cruise in "Risky Business".

January 08, 2008 12:20 AM  

Blogger Michael "Mayor Sam" Higby said:

Thanks (I think) for the compliment but I wouldn't go that far.

January 08, 2008 12:25 AM  

Blogger Michael "Mayor Sam" Higby said:

By the way the new "byline" is being gradually phased in as I merge my blogging "empires" and make some big changes to the blog.

January 08, 2008 12:26 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I predict that Hillary will win the Primary that is going to take place one month from now. It won't be Obama. Iowa and New Hampshire mean nothing except to the midwesterners and people from other states who will be out in full force for Hillary.

January 08, 2008 12:51 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Higby looks like Tom Cruise after Tom puts on 175 lbs and has some bad plastic surgery.

January 08, 2008 2:35 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

2:35am Get a life! Thanks to Mayor Sam we have a blog to post our opinions not mean, spirited hateful posts. No wonder you're a Hillary and Antonio fan.

January 08, 2008 6:56 AM  

Blogger Jack Hoff said:

My prediction is that, after New Hampshire, there will be 48 more states likely to vote for the Democrat and Republican presidential nominee.

Easy media call between today and Feb. 5, "The 'O' Factor." As candidate messages get more and more repetitive, bored media will start manufacturing stories on Oprah's influence and other celeb endorsements. Watch the fun and enjoy the spin from all sides.

January 08, 2008 7:14 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

The fat Mayor Sam writes ....
"nor to cut and paste and comment on it"

****************************

I think he many be talking about himself or the other old fat white guy Joe M. These two fools mostly copy and paste stories from other "fishwraps" and blogs.

Anybody can read other news sources and just post links to other stories. Any fat guy with a computer can copy and paste links. Savvy???

January 08, 2008 8:18 AM  

Blogger Michael "Mayor Sam" Higby said:

8:18 has discovered our secret! Joe and I are bigger cutters and pasters than anyone in CD14!

Despite that we still manage (most weeks) to be in BNN's Top 20 blogs, was listed as the top five blogs Downtown reads by the Downtown LA News (imagine that when we're not even a downtown blog!) and get the occasional kudos like being the LA Magazine Website of the Month.

Unlike 8:18, lets hope these folks don't find out our secret!

January 08, 2008 9:18 AM  

Blogger Michael "Mayor Sam" Higby said:

I predict that before the year is over Jack Hoff will engage in a slow speed boat chase around Lake Balboa.

Savvy?

Are you coming Sunday Jack?

January 08, 2008 9:21 AM  

Blogger Jack Hoff said:

lol, slow ain't the word for it!

The paddle boats in Lake Balboa don't have motors, so I've been paddlin' around in circles here since New Year's Eve...

Mayor Sam, you know I'm a sucker for community activism. If I do crash that party, I'll bring the tall boys...

January 08, 2008 10:19 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Stupid Captain Jack. He said Jack Hoff was Uli. What a clown. Bet he won't show up to Mayor Sam's party.

January 08, 2008 10:41 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Looks like the fat boy prediction was wrong. Hillary Clinton with the help of Mayor V. won in New Hampshire.

The fat boy thinks his blog ranking is related to quality, I am sure the Jerry Springer show and the National Enquirer are in the top 20on some list.

Fat Boy try predicting how much weight you can keep from gaining.

January 08, 2008 11:09 PM  

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