When It's Over ... I'm Missing You

It is hard to believe that the 2008 presidential race is finally nearing its end. It has been like political manna for the past 20 months and consumed a larger part of the national conversation and pop culture than past elections. But like most good things, there is an expiration date and that day looms near. Below are some thoughts by Eugene Robinson that struck a responsive chord.

In a week and a half, it'll be over. What will we do to fill the void in our lives?

Opinion surveys, voter registration totals and cable television ratings indicate that Americans have been engrossed by the marathon presidential campaign. That's no surprise, given the first-in-history nature of the candidacies, the host of crucial problems we face and the sense that the outcome may determine the course -- and the prospects -- of our nation for many years to come.

But there's a fine line between being engrossed and being obsessed, and many of us have crossed it. ...

We're now at a bittersweet point that's analogous to reaching the middle of the final chapter. We want to race ahead and find out what happens. We want to know if our hero -- Obama or McCain -- is victorious. But we also know that when we finally get the answer, we'll have to exit the alternative reality of narrative, atmosphere and emotion that we've inhabited for months. We'll be bereft.

We'll have something to savor, though. After Election Day has come and gone, we -- at least those of us who bother to vote -- will know that the time we spent obsessing about the campaign was worth it. That's because we'll be the ones who decided how the story ended.

Source: Robinson, Eugene. "Last Chapter of a Storybook Campaign," Washington Post, 10/24/08.

R.I.P. "Straight Talk Express"

The press had a field day with the McCain campaign yesterday, calling out the continued lies and distortions of facts advertised by McCain in his election ads. Having turned his campaign into one of Gutter Politics, the irony here is not lost, given Gutter Politics was the voodoo George W. Bush used to demolish John McCain in the 2000 Republican presidential nomination.

The ladies on "The View" were the most hard-hitting (imagine that!) and probing interviewers of McCain all week... nay, all election season thus far.

"MAVERICK" TO MUDSLINGER, cries the Huffington Post:

From the HuffPo:

In arguably his toughest interview yet, co-host Joy Behar asked McCain, "There are ads running from your campaign... Now we know that those two ads are untrue, they are lies. And yet, you at the end of it say you approve these messages. Do you really approve these?"

Barbara Walters then threw in her condemnation, telling McCain: "You, yourself, said the same thing about putting lipstick on a pig..." (Apparently, Meghan McCain wasn't offended by the porcine lipstick remark. Daddy uses that phrase all the time, she says)

McCain was also pushed on his stance on abortion, that Roe v. Wade should be overturned. Noting his pledge to nominate justices who "strictly interpret the constitution," Whoopi asked if that meant she'd be returned to slavery. (oh snap!) [click here to see McCain spin the lies]

From the NYT:

In recent days, Mr. McCain has been increasingly called out by news organizations, editorial boards and independent analysts like FactCheck.org. The group, which does not judge whether one candidate is more misleading than another, has cried foul on Mr. McCain more than twice as often since the start of the political conventions as it has on Mr. Obama.[...]

Mr. McCain came into the race promoting himself as a truth teller and has long publicly deplored the kinds of negative tactics that helped sink his candidacy in the Republican primaries in 2000. But his strategy now reflects a calculation advisers made this summer -- over the strenuous objections of some longtime hands who helped him build his "Straight Talk" image -- to shift the campaign more toward disqualifying Mr. Obama in the eyes of voters.

Your Rovian overlords have trained you well Darth McCain: Smear. Lie. Repeat. Smear. Lie. Repeat.

Unfortunately, Senator McCain finds himself squarely faced with an internet rife with truthful reporting and organizations like FactCheck.org to help sift through his shameful attempts at distorting the truth.

AP Reports that Obama Clinches the Nomination

This may qualify for a Captain Obvious Award among those following the race and still trying to get through a certain Vanity Fair article, but the Associated Press is reporting that Obama has the delegates to claim victory in the Democratic presidential nomination race.

Barack Obama effectively clinched the Democratic presidential nomination Tuesday after a grueling marathon, based on an Associated Press tally . . . based on public declarations from delegates as well as from another 15 who have confirmed their intentions to the AP. It also included 11 delegates Obama was guaranteed as long as he gained 30 percent of the vote in South Dakota and Montana later in the day. It takes 2,118 delegates to clinch the nomination. - David Espo and Stephen Ohlemacher, Associated Press Writers

Political Life Imitating Political Art?

Perhaps there is something to be said about that famous Ecclesiastes maxim: "What has been is what will be, and what has been done is what will be done, and there is nothing new under the sun." I read Peter Funt op-ed this week--yes, THAT Peter Funt of Candid Camera fame--and wondered if life was imitating art or simply that politics is more predictable than we think. Decide for yourself.

A Race Straight Out of a 'West Wing' Rerun

Peter Funt
Op-Ed - Washington Post
May 26, 2008; A17

How's this for a political plot: Good-looking congressman in his mid-40s, married with two young children, known for his inspirational speeches, comes from far behind to clinch the Democratic nomination and face an older, more experienced centrist Republican. If he wins, he's America's first non-Caucasian president.

It's a drama that plays out each day in the papers and through nonstop cable-TV coverage. But some are beginning to notice that it's a rerun. The whole thing was broadcast a few years back on NBC's "The West Wing."

As one who believes Aaron Sorkin's program belongs on a short list of television's finest dramas, I've been fascinated by similarities between the show's Democratic candidate, Matthew Santos, and the party's apparent real-life counterpart, Barack Obama. With Obama's nomination becoming more certain, "West Wing" references have intensified among bloggers and in the British press.

Apparently even Obama's staff is taking note of the degree to which life is imitating art. (They especially like the ending in which Santos, played by Jimmy Smits, narrowly defeats Alan Alda's character, Arnold Vinick, who bears more than a little resemblance to John McCain.)

Here's Santos on the campaign trail: "In a time of global chaos and instability, where our faiths collide as often as our weapons, hope is real . . . I am sure I will have my share of false starts. But there is no such thing as false hope. There is only hope."

How is this happening? Is politics so predictable, even in what some call the most unpredictable campaign ever? Or were the writers of "The West Wing" just that insightful? Turns out, it's a little of both.

Read the full op-ed.

And the Democratic Nominee Will Be?

Kentucky and Oregon have their primaries today and many believe the former first lady will take the Bluegrass State while the Illinois Senator wins the Beaver State. At stake are 51 convention delegates in the former and 52 in the latter. Going into it, Senator Obama has 1,917 delegates to Senator Clinton's 1,722 of the 2,026 needed to become the Democratic nominee. The only remaining primaries are Puerto Rico on June 1st and South Dakota and Montana on June 3rd.

Even with a split victory for either candidate--although both contests today are proportional and thus like soccer for little kids where everyone gets a trophy, it is a mathematical victory of sorts for Obama. Since his Iowa caucus win back on January 3rd, he will have won a majority of the delegates at stake in the 56 contests and will celebrate the moment at a rally in the Hawkeye State tonight.

By day's end, Obama expects to have locked up a majority of the pledged delegates to the party's national convention. Though not assuring Obama of the nomination in August, the achievement would signal that victory is near in his hard-fought battle with Hillary Rodham Clinton. - Nicholas Riccardi and Stuart Silverstein, LA Times, 5/20/08.

Senator Clinton Takes West Virginia

Cue the John Denver song and allow me a shout-out to Coro alumna Dr. Shelley Savage of the Mountaineer state, Senator Clinton has won today's West Virginia primary. Although pundits and political observers say the nomination race is all but over, Clinton picks up at least 15 of the 28 delegates at stake and now has 1,712 out of 2,025 needed (or 2,209 if you're drinking the Terry McAuliffe kool-aid) to "clinch" the nomination.

Despite the turnout among her "broader base" of a certain kind of "hard-working Americans," many in the Democratic Party feel she has already jumped the shark and increasing the chances of a Republican third presidential term. I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens on May 20th--the date of the Kentucky and Oregon primaries--or May 31st--the day of the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee Meeting--or June 3rd--the last two primaries in South Dakota and Montana.

Obama Wins North Carolina; Clinton Ahead in Indiana

Today's primaries have been referred to as "Game-Changers" and "Tiebreakers." As predicted, Obama won the Tar Heel state and Clinton is ahead in Indiana. Barring a Corleone political move, I don't see how she catches up in delegates, the popular vote and in states won. And please spare me the Florida and Michigan tripe--you don't change the rules halfway through the contest. But here's an interesting tidbit I heard from Willie Brown and Dan Schnur on NOW: if Democrats had a winner-take-all system (like the Republicans) instead of the current proportional primary vote rules, Senator Clinton would've clinched the nomination a while ago.

The Dark Side of Politics

Vice President Cheney recently joked that his wife embraced the idea of his being called "Darth Vader" because it "humanized him." But Sith Lords notwithstanding, there is a "dark side" of politics (sometimes called "Hardball") and Colbert King talks about it today in his Washington Post piece on the presidential campaign.

King suggests that there have been three key lessions taught to the young Padawan of Chicago by Senator Clinton and the Republican right-wing.

Lesson One: The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Lesson Two: Resort to McCarthyism.

Lesson Three: Getting too big for your britches is costly.

Clinton Compares Herself to "Rocky"

Swallow down those raw eggs, throw on the grey jogging suit, and hit "Gonna Fly Now" on your playlist--all you Clintonites out there. According to Beth Fouhy from the Associated Press, Senator Clinton has compared herself to the famed Philadelphia fighter, Rocky Balboa. (So who is the Mickey Goldmill character? Howard Wolfson or Mark Penn?)

"Let me tell you something, when it comes to finishing a fight, Rocky and I have a lot in common. I never quit. I never give up. And neither do the American people."

Indeed, Rocky put up a valiant fight only to lose that first big match with Apollo Creed. But I'm going to go with the other guy (ahead with delegates, ahead with the popular vote, ahead in most states won, albeit a bad bowler) because he has the "eye of the tiger."

Read the full story.

Raphael Sonenshein Talks Politics at SPJ-LA "Political Party"

The Greater Los Angeles Chapter of the Society of Professional Journalists (SPJ-LA) held a "Political Party" this past Wednesday night at the Redwood Bar & Grill with political guru and Cal State Fullerton professor, Raphael Sonenshein. Advance apologies for the quality of the lighting--it wasn't the best lit room--but the sound is good (Beastie Boys and Neil Diamond samplings notwithstanding).

There was a contingent from Cal State Fullerton as well as a number of SPJ-LA members like SPJ-LA Vice President Alice Walton of City News Service, SPJ-LA Membership Director Claudia Peschiutta of KNX 1070, SPJ-LA President David Dow (former CBS News correspondent), SPJ-LA Board Member Joel Bellman of Supervisor Yaroslavsky's Office, and several others.

Some interesting tidbits:

• Yes, several of us did try to elicit an answer from Joel regarding the mayoral race but he stayed on message (Yaroslavsky is not running).
• Sonenshein blogs at the Jewish Journal; it's called Jews Choose 2008.
• Sonenshein talked about issues facing African-American candidates, the National Campaign Press, the Age Factor with McCain, the dysfunctional Clinton campaign, how Obama needs to go on the offensive, rebellious voters and much more (including some interesting thoughts/advice on Ferraro, Spitzer and Patterson).

Slideshow

Video 1
Video 2
Video 3
Video 4
Video 5
Video 6

Enjoy ...

Political Commentariat on the '08 Presidential Election

I wonder if Guitar Center has reported a spike in drumstick purchases? Carla Marinucci is reporting that some of California's top political operatives--Ace Smith, Dan Newman, Craig Schirmer--have headed out to North Carolina to "go mano a mano in a contest for 115 crucial delegates."

Over the last weekned, the American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) concluded their their annual Pollie Awards and Conference in Santa Monica. Below are a couple of videos on "The Presidential Election" closing session with local members of the Political Commentariat (a term of endearment). I'll see about posting some Republican musings as well.

• Election Commentary by Bill Carrick
• Election Commentary by Mark Mellman

Enjoy ...

More Democratic Drama from the Sunshine State

What is it about Florida that loves to give the rest of us such heartburn when it comes to elections? I guess Dems won't have a decider like Katherine Harris to blame for this one. The AP is reporting that a June 3rd political mulligan likely won't happen now.

Obama Takes Mississippi

The Associated Press is reporting that Senator Obama has won handily in Mississippi--the final tune-up before the big Pennsylvania prize next month. Click here for the full story; there's also a response to Geraldine Ferraro's recent remark in the Daily Breeze:

"If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position. And if he was a woman (of any color) he would not be in this position. He happens to be very lucky to be who he is. And the country is caught up in the concept."

Obama Wins Wyoming Caucuses

Obama has generally done better in the caucuses; the scorecard between the two is 13:3. With 22 of 23 counties reporting in Wyoming, it is Obama with 59% and Clinton with 40%. For those noting strength in the Mountain West, he has now won Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, and Colorado.

Read the full AP story.

Is the "Caged" Strategy Working?

The "kitchen sink" strategy appears to be working--or at least it did this past Tuesday, but only when the former President is not the one doing the verbal tossing and done in tandem with a "caged" strategy? Can the most gifted politician of his era truly stay behind the scenes, off the national radar and subdued for long?



Bill Clinton adopts new campaign role

Beth Fouhy and Mead Gruver
Writers - Associated Press
March 7, 2008

This small Western hamlet, best known for a bloody race riot involving white and Chinese coal miners in 1885, might not be the first place one would expect to find the former leader of the free world.

But here was Bill Clinton in southwest Wyoming, two days before Saturday's Democratic caucuses, telling about 1,000 people how his wife, Hillary Rodham Clinton, would establish 10 clean-coal technology projects if elected president in November.

"Some environmentalists don't think we ought to be doing anything with coal, but they're wrong," he said. "Think about it, you could become, maybe, the first totally energy-independent state in the United States."

For a former two-term president, such chatter may sound like fairly mundane stuff. But months into the Democratic nominating contest, he still stumps vigorously for his wife across the country, still finding the right role for himself in an unprecedented and high-profile experiment in how best to help her.

Her advisers credit him with boosting her support among rural voters, especially men. He also phones through a list of party "superdelegates" almost daily, urging them to back the former first lady. And he has raised considerable cash for her campaign, both at events with the well-heeled and in online appeals to smaller donors.

Anticipating the next major primary April 22 in Pennsylvania, the former president was headed to Philadelphia for a meeting with city ward bosses Friday. It was then on to Mississippi, whose primary is Tuesday.

What he doesn't do — anymore — is criticize Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton's rival for the Democratic presidential nomination. And he has not appeared onstage with his wife since Super Tuesday, Feb. 5.

Full Story

McCain Clinches GOP Nomination

Liz Sidoti and Stephen Ohlemacher
Writers - Associated Press
March 4, 2008

John McCain clinched the Republican presidential nomination Tuesday, an extraordinary comeback for a candidate whose White House hopes were dashed eight years ago and whose second bid was left for dead eight months ago.

According to The Associated Press count, the four-term Arizona senator surpassed the requisite 1,191 GOP delegates as voters in Ohio, Vermont, Rhode Island and Texas put him over the threshold. The triumph came one month after his Super Tuesday coast-to-coast victories gave him an insurmountable lead in the delegate hunt and forced his chief rival, Mitt Romney, to drop out of the race.

"It's a very humbling experience," he said of finally clinching the nomination in an AP interview.

Full Story

Lingering questions: (1) Who will he pick for VP? (2) Where does Huckabee go from here?

Obama the New Reagan?

E.J. Dionne Jr. is another favorite of mine and he draws some interesting parallels and analogies between the Reagan and Obama, and their respective juggernauts. Like a raspberry seed you can't just seem to get out of your teeth, the following point stayed with me.

"The Reagan metaphor explains why Hillary Clinton was in trouble from the moment she failed to knock Obama out of the race in Iowa. During the past two months, Democrats in large numbers have reached the same conclusion that so many Republicans did in 1980: Now is the time to go for broke, to challenge not only the ruling party but also the governing ideas of the previous political era and the political coalition that allowed them to dominate public life." (emphasis added).

Source: Dionne Jr., E.J. "The Last 'Yes, We Can' Candidate," Washington Post, 2/29/08.

Read the full story.

3rd and Long for the Clintons But It Ain't Over Yet

One of my favorite political pundits and practitioners here in California is Dan Schnur. Below is a piece of his that ran in the New York Times this week. I'll overlook his jab of America's Team but his insight and analysis is usually right-on--regardless of the GOP uniform he wears.

I'm interested to see (if you'll indulge me yet another football metaphor) how 0-11 keeps the Clinton team to the playoffs, let alone within reach of another brass ring . The Ohio and Texas contests have to be large margin victories. But if that happens, it will be a greater upset than what happened in Glendale, Arizona last month and Dan's worst fears will be realized.



Why I’m Afraid of the Clintons

Dan Schnur
Op-Ed - New York Times (Campaign Stop)
February 28, 2008

If it’s not the first rule of Republican politics, it should be: never, ever, ever underestimate anybody whose last name is Clinton. Not Bill, not Hillary. Not Chelsea, not even George. They’re very good at what they do, and when they’re about to be written off for dead, that’s when they’re at their very best.

We’ve counted out the Clintons before: during the New Hampshire primary in 1992, after the death of health care reform and the Republican takeover of Congress, and at the height of the impeachment brawl a few years after that. On each of those occasions, we had convinced ourselves that this was going to be the end of this unique family’s political journey. Each time, we were wrong.

When Hillary Clinton decided to run for president, I promised myself I would not be fooled again. As an equally loyal fan of the Republican Party and of the Green Bay Packers football team, I had come to regard the Clintons the same way I’ve always thought about the Dallas Cowboys. I don’t like them. I root against them. I want them to lose and occasionally find myself wanting bad things to happen to them. But they are very good at what they do. And if someone can knock them out in the playoffs — whether it’s the New York Giants or a senator from Illinois — I’m just as happy not to have to go up against them when the stakes are at their highest.

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The Final Clinton-Obama Debate

Tonight marks the 20th time that Clinton and Obama will have engaged in a debate or forum, ranging from the moderately civilized to no-you-didn't confrontational. With slumping poll numbers and an 0-11 showing for the last several contests, it's make-or-break time for Senator Clinton. A decision victory will not be enough for the New York Senator to stop her opponent in this exhibition and she will need to throw stiff jabs and combinations for a knockout. There is also the hope by some that she will finish on her stool with a simple "No mas" so the political prizefighter out of Chicago can focus on the heavyweight bout in November. Truth be told, however, that matchup may be more MMA than the Sweet Science.

Democratic Debate

Live from Cleveland State University on MSNBC

Moderated by Brian Williams & Tim Russert
6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. PST

Clinton chances to slow Obama at debate

David Espo
Special Correspondent - Associated Press
February 26, 2008 (2:58 p.m.)

Hillary Rodham Clinton will get her last, best chance Tuesday night to slow Barack Obama before the March 4 primaries in the latest debate of an increasingly contentious Democratic presidential race.

Obama has won 11 straight primaries and caucuses, and even some of Clinton's supporters concede she must win in both Ohio and Texas next week to keep her candidacy alive.
"I think things have gotten a little hotter in the last couple of days," Obama said at a news conference where he collected an endorsement from a former campaign rival, Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut.

There was unlikely to be any debate about that, after a four-day span in which Clinton accused Obama of distorting her record on trade and health care in mass mailings, then criticized him as ill-prepared to take charge of the nation's foreign policy.

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The Nader Effect ...

Below is an editorial piece by Eleanor Randolph running in tomorrow's New York Times. I wonder what effect Ralph Nader might have on the presidential race. Tim Russert chided him on his perceived adverse role for Democrats in the 2000 presidential contest but Nader came back stridently that the outcome would not have been in question if Gore had carried his home state of Tennessee. Any thoughts on '08?



Ralph Nader: Going, Going, Not Gone

The real question about Ralph Nader’s political nadir is this: are we there yet? Once he was the hero of Americans who wanted safer automobiles, drugs, toys and food. Since then, Mr. Nader has been known for running and running and running — and now running again for president.

On NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday, when the 73-year-old announced his candidacy for the fourth time, Mr. Nader tossed himself into the historical oddities bin with Harold Stassen (nine tries for the Republican nomination), Eugene Debs (five attempts with the Socialist Party) and Lyndon LaRouche (several tries with several parties).

Also-runners can make noise for a political cause or have a spoiling effect on one of the major party candidates that is greater than their impact on national policy. When Ross Perot ran in 1992, he spent a lot of his own money and ate into the Republican vote, helping President Bill Clinton get elected. His signature issues: curbing the national deficit and stopping jobs from leaving America. Seems almost quaint.

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