Los Angeles Politics Hotsheet for Monday

Senator Barbara Boxer has sought to hit hard in defining a negative image for her opponent Carly Fiorina.  However those who attend her rallies and hear Fiorina speak in person find a different person than what Boxer, one who is warm and has ideas for California.  The GOP challenger will have to overcome Boxer's commercials; however I predict a stunning repudiation of Boxer buoyed by Meg Whitman's multi-million dollar ground war will lead Fiorina to a three point victory over Boxer.  So long Babs.

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Senate Race Out of Reach for GOP in Cali?

Drats!

Five-Thirty-Eight forecasts that the GOP may be SOL in the California U.S. Senate race. The new Field Research Poll gives Boxer an 8 point lead with just 3 days and a few hours left before election day.

"While Ms. Fiorina’s chances had already been on the decline — California has been very widely polled, and most of the surveys have shown Ms. Boxer holding a lead in the mid-single digits — the new poll harms her odds somewhat further. Given the robustness of the polling (and how close we now are to Election Day),  our model gives Ms. Fiorina just a 4 percent chance of making a comeback, down from 7 percent yesterday.

The reason this relatively small change is in fact quite important is because the California race was providing the Republicans with at least some redundancy in how they might win enough seats to take over the Senate. Along with Washington and West Virginia, it was one of three tipping point states that were most important to their overall probability of getting to 51 seats".

Shark Chum

Boxer keeps it real.

Brown and Boxer Pull Ahead in New Poll

Meg Whitman's ongoing effort to buy the governorship of California finds her $119 million out of pocket and 5 points down in the latest poll by LA Times/USC. The Times/USC poll has Brown at 49% over Whitman at 44%.

Meanwhile, Carly Fiorina finds herself even further behind at 43% to Sen. Boxer's 51% according to this poll.

The first debate between the two gubernatorial candidates will be held Tuesday night at UC Davis. More details here.

RCP: Whitman Surges; Boxer-Fiorina Now Neck and Neck

Latest reports from the neutral website Real Clear Politics show some not good news for the two Democrats at the top of the ticket.

RCP has listed for some time both the California Governor and Senate races as toss-ups and continue to do so. However recent polls show both the Republican ladies moving up in recent days.

At the end of August Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman were dead even at 43 and some change points in the RCP poll of polls. However, as of the end of last week Whitman has gained several points on Brown as apparently independents are starting to decide.  As of today, Whitman is up four points over Brown though Brown has been ahead most of the campaign.

Over on the Senate side the race between incumbent Barbara Boxer and businesswoman Carly Fiorina is a squeaker as the former Hewlett-Packard CEO is catching up.  Still a toss-up in RCP's view, even though Boxer has been ahead most of the summer, less than 3/10ths of one percent separate the two in the poll of polls even though individual polls put Fiorina slightly ahead.  Like Whitman, Fiorina has made up considerable ground so far this September.

Stay tuned!

Boxer and Fiorina Set for Debate

From Politics Now
By Ben Demers on August 27, 2010 12:59 PM

Just days after a poll showed that the California U.S. Senate race is practically a dead heat, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina on Sept. 1 will have what could be their only debate before Election Day on Nov. 2.

The debate will be from 7 to 8 p.m. at St. Mary's College in Moraga. The moderator will be Randy Shandobil, political editor at KTVU Channel 2 News in Oakland.

Locally, the debate will air on Channell 11 KTTV.

Results of a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey released Wednesday showed Boxer garnered 44 percent support, while Fiorina had 43 percent.

Los Angeles Politics Hotsheet for Tuesday

Well, well, well.  Guess who spent $50 million to save $13 million? Nope not the DWP.  Nope, not Tom LaBonge. You're incorrect if you said Kim Kardashian. Give up? Your Los Angeles MTA spent that amount to install turnstiles at it's subway and light rail stations - except it currently can not issue the fare media the gates require and can not be locked.




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