Senate Race Out of Reach for GOP in Cali?
Five-Thirty-Eight forecasts that the GOP may be SOL in the California U.S. Senate race. The new Field Research Poll gives Boxer an 8 point lead with just 3 days and a few hours left before election day.
"While Ms. Fiorina’s chances had already been on the decline — California has been very widely polled, and most of the surveys have shown Ms. Boxer holding a lead in the mid-single digits — the new poll harms her odds somewhat further. Given the robustness of the polling (and how close we now are to Election Day), our model gives Ms. Fiorina just a 4 percent chance of making a comeback, down from 7 percent yesterday.
The reason this relatively small change is in fact quite important is because the California race was providing the Republicans with at least some redundancy in how they might win enough seats to take over the Senate. Along with Washington and West Virginia, it was one of three tipping point states that were most important to their overall probability of getting to 51 seats".