Zuma Dogg "Economic Update" For Serious Investors Since ZD Is Better Than Greenspan At Predicting Economic Trends

If you are a serious investor in the stock market, or your future is tied to local or global economic factors...you should be paying much, much more attention to Big ZD, these days:

On May 05, 2007, Zuma Dogg predicted the sub-prime lending crisis would burst the housing bubble (three months before it happened); adding that it would trigger a recession within a year -- with the effects starting as soon as six months. Well if this week (November 5, 2007) signals the start of a recession to you...then ZD predicition of "starting in six months" was quite accurate. (To the day/week!)

AND NOW...FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THIS HISTORIC PREDICTIVE ARTICLE SIX MONTHS AGO...CHAIRMAN ZUMA DOGG COMMENTS ON THE ECONOMIC FUTURE FOR THE NEXT 18 MONTHS.

INVESTORS: CLICK READ MORE FOR THE INSIGHTFUL ANALYSIS.

Does Anyone Dispute A Recession, Followed By Inflation, Followed by A Depression Is On The Way?

Did you see that new Fed Chairman? What a bad PR turkey. He's worse than Wendy Greuel and Janice Hahn when it comes to putting a foot in the mouth during a speech.
When you say things like, "Not Alarming" and "Decline to comment as to whether a recession is on the way", that means it's time to be alarmed because a recession is on the way!!!

(You gotta admit...Zuma Dogg predicted that the sub-prime bubble burst would triggering the start of a recession, basically, to the day!)

EXCERPT:

May 05, 2007
ZUMA DOGG PUBLIC HEARING: IS THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL FOR A RECESSION STARTING IN SIX MONTHS TO A YEAR?

Oh no...Sen. Chuck Shumer/NY just told Zuma Dogg (indirectly) that we are gonna have a housing bubble-burst and recession starting in about a year. (With the effects starting as soon as six months.) SELL NOW!

They got these things called “sub-prime lending” (high risk, low interest loans). When you have a good economy, you can give some “riskier investments/clients” these low interest loans to jump-start their American dream of home ownership.

They only pay 1% or 2% the first three years, or so. Then, the rate jumps to the higher Federal rate.

When these people, coming off 3 year low interst loans, have to jump into a 6% or 7% or even 8 % rate all of the sudden, and they can’t keep up with the new, higher payments each month and then they default.

Well these days, with higher paying jobs being replaced with lower paying jobs; while housing costs, property taxes, and everything else -- people are gonna be defaulting on the loans, more and more. And the banks know that this is going to to become more of a problem, so they are going to stop approving these “low prime lending” rates.

Posted by Zuma Dogg @ 5/05/2007 10:32:00 AM

HERE'S WHAT MY BATCOMPUTER SAYS IS COMING NEXT:

First of all, keep in mind the U.S. is no longer the number one importer of goods from Japan. China is now the number one importer of Japanese goods.

ZD's Batcomputer says the weak dollar is the real reason gas prices are rising. The oil sheiks in the middle east don't like the fact they are stuck with a weak U.S. dollar, so they are raising prices to help make up the difference.

So it's no secret to predict low consumer confidence will trigger a recession based on sinking property values (owners feeling they are now worth much less); rising gas prices at the pump (with no end to the rise in sight); higher oil prices meaning it will cost more to heat your home (right as winter is hitting); and retailers are already hinting to an extremely "down" holiday spending season. (And it's probably gonna be worse than they realize/can actually admit.)

Personally, I feel the Fed would like to RAISE interest rates, to help make the rest of the world feel better about all those dollars they are holding and being paid with. (Like the oil producers in the middle east.) However, with the stock market concerns and low consumer confidence/financial problems with the U.S. economy...the Fed would not be able to be that much of a Grinch in the December holiday month.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Is U.S. About To Lose It's Foothold As #1 World Economic Power Over Sub-Prime Lending Crisis? (Will US Banks Be Forced To Merge With "World Bank"?)

To those of you checking in for the first time...my name is Zuma Dogg. And if you wonder why you should care about my opinion on the following story -- I posted a warning that the sub-prime lending bubble was about to burst, triggering a recession -- THREE MONTHS BEFORE IT HIT THE NEWS HEADLINES. Original Story (see date)

HERE'S AN UPDATE TO THE STORY POSTED SIX MONTHS AGO (FURTHER PREDICTION)

The US banks are going to have to surrender/merge to the International Monetary Fund (World Bank) next year, right after the elections.

Next year, one by one, the US banks are going to start to fall like dominoes. First Citibank, then Bank of America, and so on -- because of the sub-prime lending crisis.

Why? These banks' liabilities will have to be written-off and absorbed by a bigger bank. The World Bank is the only one big enough that I can think of.

First, there will he a big stock sell-off; then a merger as stockholders are forced to "give it up" to the I.M.F. (International Monetary Fund).

SUB PRIME DEFAULTS ARE NOT OVER, YET!

When property values "devaluate", more and more people will default (simply walk away) from their sub-prime loans. If you are paying back a loan for what was originally a $400,000 piece of property -- now only worth $200,000 -- some people will simply walk away from the loan and default.

THEN, the banks are stick with the properties people walk away from. And the bank's equity (property value) doesn't cover the liability of defaulted loan (See "negative amortization".)

In February/March of 2008, the Federal Bank will have to RAISE interest rates -- to help raise the value of the US dollar -- but it will be too late. (And if they CUT rates, it will only make it worse/devalue US dollar even further).

And here's why the Fed will have to RAISE rates, when consumer confindence and spending will be so low: THE OVERSEA BILLIONAIRES, LIKE THE OIL MOGULS IN THE MIDEAST DON'T LIKE SITTING ON THE US DOLLAR AS IT BECOMES LESS AND LESS VALUABLE. That will cause them to switch to Euros and other currencies.

So with low consumer confidence (due to subprime concerns); a terrible holiday retail season on the way, then raising the interest rate to help bring up the value of the dollar -- will cause consumers to cut-back even more (out of fear), causing a recession...followed by hyper-inflation, that will cause further consumer spending cut-backs, which will trigger a depression.

Then Greenspan will have to step in as Chairman of the I.M.F. (Oh, didn't you hear?)

If you project it all out...it appears as though for the first time ever, the US may lose it's number one ranking as the number one economic force in the world and may become beholden to the new global economic leaders.

Might not be very comfortable, economically, the next sixty to a hundred years on this side of the pond.

TIME FRAME: 18 months

BOTTOM LINE: The global marketplace is strong and there will continue to be big money to be made in the markets. You just have to make sure you accurately access the U.S. economy and it's position in the global marketplace. And make sure you are investing in things they need in China, India and Vietnam.

TO READ MORE ABOUT THE CURRENT STATE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE U.S. POSITION, GO TO WWW.ZUMATIMES.COM AND READ SOME OF THE RELATED ARTICLES POSTED ON THE SIDE COLUMNS.

zumadogg@gmail.com

Zuma Dogg Predicts "Sub Prime Lending" May Cause Housing Bubble Burst, Triggering Start of A Recession

ZD PREDICTS THAT THE SUBPRIME LENDING MARKET MAY BURST THE BUBBLE AND START A RECESSION: But, the prediction was three months ago. (And I was scoffed?!?!)

FROM 5/5/07: Oh no...Sen. Chuck Shumer/NY just told Zuma Dogg (indirectly) that we are gonna have a housing bubble-burst and recession starting in about a year. (With the effects starting as soon as six months.) SELL NOW!

* Sen. Chuck Shumer/NY has a bill in congress in about six months to a year they are going to put the clamp down on “sub-prime loans”. This is a major sign that the housing bubble is gonna pop. Then, all these condos will be staying on the market, vacant -- getting cheaper and cheaper by the quarter.

* “Sub-prime lending” are high risk, low interest loans. When you have a good economy, you can give some “riskier investments/clients” these low interest loans to jumpstart their American dream of home ownership.

* They only pay 1% or 2% the first three years, or so. Then, the rate jumps to the Federal rate (what is it, 5.5%, or something.)

People coming off 3 year low interst loans, have to jump into (a higher) Federal rate all of the sudden, and they can’t keep up with the new, higher payments each month and then they default.

Well these days, with higer paying jobs being replaced with lower paying jobs; while housing costs, property taxes, and everything else -- people are gonna be defaulting on the loans, more and more. And the banks know that this is going to to become more of a problem, so they are going to stop approving these “low prime lending” rates.

What else has ZD been predicting that he spent MORE than fifteen minutes researching to make such predictions? LIKE THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF (Dumb) "Smart Growth", LAUSD Charter Bamboozle, and Non-Profit racketeering that is bankrupting our City (along with the CRA and their Downtown development plans).

ALSO...ZD STORY ON L.A.'s ILLEGAL STREET VENDING MAKES IT ON LUKEFORD.COM: Click here: Sorry Mayor Antonio and illegal vendor, third world economy lovers.

ZUMA DOGG PUBLIC HEARING: IS THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL FOR A RECESSION STARTING IN SIX MONTHS TO A YEAR?

Oh no...Sen. Chuck Shumer/NY just told Zuma Dogg (indirectly) that we are gonna have a housing bubble-burst and recession starting in about a year. (With the effects starting as soon as six months.) SELL NOW!

They got these things called “sub-prime lending” (high risk, low interest loans). When you have a good economy, you can give some “riskier investments/clients” these low interest loans to jumpstart their American dream of home ownership.

They only pay 1% or 2% the first three years, or so. Then, the rate jumps to the Federal rate (what is it, 5.5%, or something.) Well ZD feels it might go to of 6%, 7% -- is 8% out of the question?)

When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, more people with subprime loans default. Why? Because these people, coming off 3 year low interst loans, have to jump into a 6% or 7% or even 8 % rate all of the sudden, and they can’t keep up with the new, higher payments each month and then they default.

Well these days, with higer paying jobs being replaced with lower paying jobs; while housing costs, property taxes, and everything else -- people are gonna be defaulting on the loans, more and more. And the banks know that this is going to to become more of a problem, so they are going to stop approving these “low prime lending” rates.

Sen. Chuck Shumer/NY has a bill in congress in about six months to a year they are going to put the clamp down on “sub-prime loans”. This is a major sign that the housing bubble is gonna pop. Then, all these condos will be staying on the market, vacant -- getting cheaper and cheaper by the quarter.

L.A. is leading the nation in this housing bubble burst, as vacany rates in Los Angeles continue to increase, due to people moving out of the CIty for all the reasons stated daily by the pueblos.

Come summmetime fuel prices will go hire and the interest rates will go higher....that means good bye sub prime lending, because the default rate will rise along with it.

Did ZD smoke too much very excellent chronic this morning, or just the right amount? What say you?

Regarding $1 Million Wasted in Child Services: Is this an example of fraud and abuse, or just waste?

OTHER STORIES FROM THIS WEEK:

Illegal Vending Allowed To Spread Throughout Los Angeles Under Villaraigosa: A threat to safety and economy other U.S. Mayors wouldn't allow (Good comments on both sides.)

LA Times covering the long term negative impact of LA's "Dumb Growth" Housing Plan. (Not posted on Mayor Sam yet.)

Non-profit public money abuse?: Is the City always short on cash to complete projects and get the job done because the mayor and City Council are handing too much money over to shady non-profits?

LA Live & Grand Avenue Everything you wish you didn't know about LA City's "Hail Mary" Downtown projects: (And you should know about them, you decided we need this and agreed to finance it with public money, right? (Project Reviews)

AND NOW...ON WITH THE COUNTDOWN!

Child services audit finds $1 million wasted
From LATimes.com:

The question I would like to ask mi amigo Mark “Mr. K” Germain on KTALK 1150-AM, is this: Mark, do you think this is just waste as in “incompetence and nincompoopism”; or is this the way people “hook each other up” in the fraud and abuse departments?

For example, who was responsible for doing the ordering of all these toner and office supplies and I wonder what the relationship is to the supplier? Is this just a way to pass off/sell a bunch of merchandise you acquired, stocked already, or maybe even was too close to expiration, so it was time to pawn off on the County.

I don’t know. This article just reported on the aftermath of the result. I have no information other than what was presented in this article to even think to ask the question, but this kind of fits the profile of how the system “front end loads” the spending and the cronies get the hook up. I’m not saying that happened here. Perhaps it was plain, old fashioned bureaucracy/waste. But if ZD was IG this would trigger a flag for the type of “cahootsism” racket that ZD feels drains enough money out of the system to keep it in a constant state of financial crisis (broken.

So perhaps they were ordering excessive amounts of supplies, and that’s why they had to hide the leftovers. But this stuff looks really bad:

* The department also failed to improve oversight of its gift cards in the wake of a theft of about $15,000 in gift cards in 2003, the audit said. The cards, which can be used at stores such as Target and Wal-Mart, are typically distributed to children and foster parents to buy food, clothing and other household necessities.

* The department could not show documentation to support about $115,000 of the $700,000 gift card purchases that auditors reviewed. Auditors said that without the documents they could not be sure the cards were used appropriately.

ALSO FROM THE REPORT:

[CLICK "READ MORE" for more report]

ZD CAN SUM IT UP IN THREE WORDS: “SHADY-AS-F*CK!”



Los Angeles County's child welfare agency wasted more than $1 million on unnecessary or overpriced equipment and failed to adequately keep track of hundreds of thousands of dollars more in supplies, a county audit has found.

* Procurement staff misled auditors to conceal storage locations that housed unneeded or obsolete supplies.

* "I think it's probably the most significant departure from purchasing practices that I've ever seen," said Auditor-Controller J. Tyler McCauley, who has worked for the county for 37 years. "We're surprised at the extent of it, but we're taking care of it."

* Auditors singled out for particular criticism a purchase by the department last year of more than 3,000 printer cartridges for $800,000. The supplies were enough to last the agency three years, even though the cartridges have a shelf life of two years.

* During the same month, the department paid $450,000 to buy more of the same cartridges at a 15% higher price. Additional toner cartridge purchases over the next nine months cost the county $150,000. The agency has been left with an estimated 4,500 cartridges due to expire before they can be used, the audit said.

Will Zuma Dogg have to be giving this speech a whole lot sooner? ZD's Mayoral Campaign Promises

SUBPRIME SURPRISE?: ZD PREDICTS SUBPRIME LENDING CRISIS AND RECESSION EFFECTS 3 MONTHS AGO (O.K. so the feds held the interest rate to not make things worse, but the rest was a good guess out of nowhere.)

ZumaDogg@gmail.com
ZumaTimes.com

SUB-PRIME CITIZEN'S ALERT: George Bush Sets Up Help Line For People Who Didn't Read Before They Signed or Fell Victim to "Predatory Lending"

For those of you who signed one of those fun, little sub-prime mortgage loans -- and ended up getting burnt, George Bush has set up a toll free line for those who either couldn't read the contract, didn't read the contract, didn't care about the contract, or were simply victims of "predatory lending" by the banks that held guns to their heads to take these loans, please call:

1-(888) 995-HOPE! (That's H-O-P-E)

And to everyone who locked in with 10 year bonds based on current interest rates, and the current state of the sub-prime effect on the banks -- they are more than happy to pay for all of this!

HOWEVER, ZD WOULD BE A SIDE-TALKER IF HE DIDN'T ALSO ADD: At this point, I DO think this is what needs to be done to prevent everyone who is complaining from REALLY taking a hit -- because this problem is much wider and deeper has been realized yet. And if everyone's stock portfolio drops 30% as a result -- and the entire economy "recesses" while we let the problem move through the system -- well, that's what hardcore economists say we SHOULD let happen -- but that ain't no fun.

"There is no perfect solution to mortgage market problems. Plan is not a 'silver bullet', problems remain. Investors back plan. Legal liability limited. 1.2 million subprime borrowers may be fastracked. This effort involves only the private sector. No public money." - Secretary Paulson

Something Senator Clinton reminded Zuma Dogg during here cnbc appearance: If all these people are kicked out of their homes, many of them are in cluster areas where you would have enitre communities shutting down and turning to blight -- and then the crime starts replacing the community and it's roots. So looks like we're gonna step in and do the wrong thing to prevent it from becoming a lot worse as we stand by on principal and logic.

cnbc viewer: "Let's call it what it is, a 'bail-out' for the banks." (affecting 1.2 million.)
(Rock and a hard place, y'all!!!)

zumadogg@gmail.com
strategyupdate.com

LAUSD Scales Back On School Construction Plans, But Spent All The Money, Anyway

Falling enrollment projections mean fewer and smaller schools are needed, district says.

By Evelyn Larrubia, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
8:24 PM PST, January 22, 2008

[ZD's subliminal thoughts in brackets.]

EXCERPT:

Declining enrollment has prompted the Los Angeles Unified School District to scale back its $20-billion school construction and remodeling program sought to relieve overcrowding and end involuntary busing.

[Oh no, The Mayor's office (Villarosa AND Riordan), Broad/Kramer, and "The Charter school Takeover Cronies"(see Clinton Library donors) have been trying to spend their way through the $20 billion plus in construction and repair budget!!! NOW WHAT??? Did they just drill for oil and come up with dust after all that spending to take over the school board. Now only to be left with the mess of trying to show some kind of improvement? LOL!]

The building program, which is paid for by four bond issues approved by local voters and state funds, is believed to be the largest public works projects in the nation. But since the fall, the school system has canceled plans for 19 new schools and additions to existing campuses in South Gate, Bell, Van Nuys, San Fernando, Sun Valley and central Los Angeles, among other areas, citing new enrollment projections. On Tuesday, the Board of Education downsized five new schools, eliminating more than 1,000 seats, and last year, the district decided against building seven others, also largely because of decreased enrollment.

[ZD says (On the Charter takeover posses' behalf), "Let's just give the money to Antonio and his Charter reformers! Even though Charters are non-profits, meaning no transparency of spending, no accountability of spending...and HEY GREIG SMITH...NO FORM 700 REQUIRED!!! Holla!"]

Overall, the nation's second-largest school system now serves 694,288 students, down 7% from its peak in 2003 of 747,009 students. The drop stems from years of declining birth rates and increasing housing prices that have pushed poor and working-class families out of many gentrified urban Los Angeles neighborhoods.

[What a crock of 3rd floor spin bullsh*t. Shame on you LAzy Times. No wonder you are going out of business because of blogs, typo errors, bad punctuation, and all. How about because half the enrollment dropped out, and the other half were pulled out by parents and put into Charters or private schools. AND YOU CAN MARK THE DATE OF THIS PREDICTION DOWN: This PR spin piece for the mayor is to set up a call to reduce LAUSD budget and transfer it over to Charters. (Wouldn't be surprised if it already happened and I missed it. If not...it's coming. ON THE MOST F-ING REALEST OF EVER, DOUGHS.]

In Los Angeles, reducing the number of new classrooms will not, however, mean that the district will have a surplus of bond money, officials said. Construction costs have nearly tripled to $500 per square foot or higher since 2001, causing a shortfall. The district has cut more than $1 billion from school repair, technology and early education programs to make up the difference.

[Ooops, looks like they still managed to spend all the money and blame everything else but their own inefficiency. Although, of course construction costs have risen to. I'm just saying, you're not gonna hear 'em say, "Because of rising costs, massive inefficiency (remember credit card scandal and the payroll mess), plus Larry, Curly and Moe like execution. Not to mention whatever flat out purposeful shadiness may be corrupting/skimming off the system.]

Guy Mehula, the district's chief facilities executive, has assured the board that the 80,000 seats left to be built still appear necessary. He has repeatedly pointed out that 200,000 children will be learning in portable classrooms even after the construction program is completed. The district expects enrollment numbers to begin to rise again in about five years.

[Off to a good start in providing a winning environment. How about setting up some classrooms in all the vacant foreclosed homes due to subprime (predatory) lending?]

Perhaps the costliest fight over declining enrollment is being waged over what the district calls Central Region Elementary School No. 14, in Echo Park, which has been tied up in court for more than two years. The proposed school was promised to voters in 2005, principally to remove chronically jammed Rosemont Elementary School from a four-track year-round schedule.

[Promise first, yank later.]

It gets better from here, LAzy Times, take it away!

zumadogg@gmail.com

(DISCLAIMER: I typed my subliminal thoughts as I read through the article for the first time. I'm sleep deprived, and I'll probably wake up tomorrow and realize I read something completely backwards or something. So have fun bringing any of that to my attention. Consider a rough draft of my of my thoughts before I actually think it through. Oh wait, that's what I always do...my bad!)

WEDNESDAY 1/23/08 12 pm STOCK UPDATE: This is creepy. Last night, ZD's Batcomputer said "Apple would be at $129 today." (Check the 6am pre-market comment on this thread.) It's at $129 as I am typing this update.

And, to the three people I personally called, myself on Friday and Monday telling you to make sure you sell (in the 170's and even 160's) -- YOU CAN'T SAY I DIDN'T TRY AND DO EVERYTHING I COULD, my sistas and brothas.) Love, Zuma Dogg

zumatimes.com