ZUMA DOGG PUBLIC HEARING: IS THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL FOR A RECESSION STARTING IN SIX MONTHS TO A YEAR?
Oh no...Sen. Chuck Shumer/NY just told Zuma Dogg (indirectly) that we are gonna have a housing bubble-burst and recession starting in about a year. (With the effects starting as soon as six months.) SELL NOW!
They got these things called “sub-prime lending” (high risk, low interest loans). When you have a good economy, you can give some “riskier investments/clients” these low interest loans to jumpstart their American dream of home ownership.
They only pay 1% or 2% the first three years, or so. Then, the rate jumps to the Federal rate (what is it, 5.5%, or something.) Well ZD feels it might go to of 6%, 7% -- is 8% out of the question?)
When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, more people with subprime loans default. Why? Because these people, coming off 3 year low interst loans, have to jump into a 6% or 7% or even 8 % rate all of the sudden, and they can’t keep up with the new, higher payments each month and then they default.
Well these days, with higer paying jobs being replaced with lower paying jobs; while housing costs, property taxes, and everything else -- people are gonna be defaulting on the loans, more and more. And the banks know that this is going to to become more of a problem, so they are going to stop approving these “low prime lending” rates.
Sen. Chuck Shumer/NY has a bill in congress in about six months to a year they are going to put the clamp down on “sub-prime loans”. This is a major sign that the housing bubble is gonna pop. Then, all these condos will be staying on the market, vacant -- getting cheaper and cheaper by the quarter.
L.A. is leading the nation in this housing bubble burst, as vacany rates in Los Angeles continue to increase, due to people moving out of the CIty for all the reasons stated daily by the pueblos.
Come summmetime fuel prices will go hire and the interest rates will go higher....that means good bye sub prime lending, because the default rate will rise along with it.
Did ZD smoke too much very excellent chronic this morning, or just the right amount? What say you?
Posted by Zuma Dogg @ 5/05/2007 10:32:00 AM
15 Comments:
Another post on a subject you know nothing about. New York and Los Angeles are 3,000 miles away, but the distance is even longer.
Our housing market is constantly under pressure to house more and more people, thus, if there is a bubble burst, it will be more like little dribs and drabs, no big depression.
Prices will stabilize, maybe drop 5% to 10% and then rise again even higher.
There are more buyers than houses; ever hear of supply and demand? Nah.
Stick to the tee shirts and clowning at public meetings. Something you know a little bit about. And, lay off the Sally D.
ZD: Stick to the local politics scene and stay away from economics. And dont believe anything the vapid Chuckie Schumer says. Unemployment, inflation are still at historical low levels. Stock market continues to set all time records. Corporate balance sheets are flush with cash and looking to spend. There will be some adjustment to the real estate market but most economists dont think the sky will fall. Get back to your real mission in life, annoying the LA City Clowcil.
See, glad I aksed....beware these tea leaves though. it caught my attention and interest, and I know nothing about this stuff, so i wanted to present it to you, the way it was presented to me...BUT DO NOT BE BAMBOOZELD...RELATING IT BACK TO L.A. -- all these luxury condos being consturcted are gonna sit there empty -- and they are gonna end up being expensive rentals.
I said this City's housing policy is a house of cards waiting to fold, the politicans causing it, know it, they don't care, cause they'll be gone by then...
PEOPLE ARE LEAVING THE CITY, NOT MOVING TO IT -- ZD IS DOING THE RESEARCH AND WILL PROVE STATISTICALLY HOW CITY COUNCIL IS USING BULLSHIT NUMBERS --- and all this prediction of 4 million people moving here is BS...more like 400,000. if I feel like it, i'll show the numbers...otherwise do the reserach ZD does and get them yourselves. HATERS --- YOU KNOW I'M RIGHT...House of cards, y'all...again the city is planning all backwards...they're building the supply, just as the demand has left. And those SCAG numbers are bullshit. OTR, D.
The people YOU know are leaving the city because they've only stayed because the rent control laws ripped off the landowners and gave it to the folks who couldn't otherwise afford these locations.
The backlash caused the conversions, and now those people who CAN afford it are moving in and the freeloaders are moving to places where they can afford the rents.
You hear the whiners because you are one of them.
There's plenty of money in LA becuase of the movie biz and the yuppies will enter as the old farts and freeloaders leave.
It's called "supply and demand". Ever hear of it? Go read Deming.
ZD....You don't need a Harvard MBA to know we are heading for a huge recess5ion in LA County! It's even worse than you stated because Chuckie Schumer wants the Feds to bail out the sub-prime market...i.e. illegals and hispanics who can't pay their mortgages and claim they were bamboozled into buying homes.
Check out the affordabiliy index in CA....those who can actually afford a median (500K house)! It's under 12%!
The middle class in LA has dwindled to 7%! It's only the haves and the have-nots now!!!
CA is the highest taxed state in the Union and soon it will be stratospheric if they pass universal health care.
The schools are costing taxpayers 11B/yr. and we are now have the distinction of being third from the bottom out of every state in the Union.
Hospitals are going bankrupt.
The only real estate investors are from out of the country because the dollar is sinking rapidly.
Outsourcing is taking away all the skilled jobs and insourcing is bringing millions of unskilled illegals who are taking American jobs and driving wages into the cellar.
Zuma...you say "recession"...I say "depression".
And, oh, yes...if the Dems get elected in '08....the rest of the country will be on welfare!
LA will be the first to go down in flames and IT IS HAPPENING!!!!!
The US economy is now the SLOWEST growing at 1 1/2% than ANY OTHER INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRY ON THE PLANET!!!
Even Mexico is growing at 3-4%/year!!!!
ZumaDogg...anyone who disagrees with us just doesn't have ANY common sense and doesn't understand Economics 101...Supply and Demand! There are too many foreigners competing for too few jobs. Hell, we're even bringing in 1M H1B visa holders a year and 86% of them are level ONE!!!! Which means they are completely unskilled and only have a basic knowledge of the occupation they have applied for!!!! Only 2 - 3 percent of the H1B visas are SKILLED workers!!!! And Bill Gates can shove them up his ass!
One more thing, ZD....
The loan requirements for refinancing are also TIGHTENING! Used to be you could do a re-fi with a fico of 620...but now it's 740 or higher. This means millions of people who did 100% financing and are trying to get into a 30 year fixed probably cannot qualify! They will surely face foreclosure as their APR's kick in!!! But, of course, the illegals just walk away. What do they have to lose??? Their reputation????
THANK YOU LAPD FOR HELPING GET RID OF THE ILLEGALS. Not much Cinco De Mayo celebration going on at Olvera Street. Maybe now the illegals will leave LA and go break the law in another city. When will the politicians start enforcing the LAW???
THE TRUTH ABOUT MACARTHUR PARK
http://michellemalkin.com/archives/007440.htm
Ed Muzika recently announced on his blog LA Animal Watch that Ed Boks is revising the City’s euthanasia protocol and is thinking of naming the rooms used for killing animals (called the “bump” rooms) in Michael Bell’s honor.
Thus the City’s new policy and media release will read somewhat as follows:
TO ALL LA ANIMAL SERVICES EMPLOYEES/ VOLUNTEERS/ RESCUERS:
Effective with the new euthanasia policy initiated by Michael Bell, the following terminologies will be immediately adopted.
Instead of referring to the “bump" room, this room will be called the "Bell room." RVT’s will use the new code word -- replacing “we have some animals to bump" with “we need to ‘Bell’ these guys”. New stats will indicate we had to "Bell" ten unadoptables today. This will be easy to integrate into staff’s internal slang terminology and probably will be therapeutic at the same time, in light of Michael Bell’s history with this Dept.
Our regular “bump” numbers sent annually to the State from LA City will report the "Bell" statistics. Pretty soon all of the agencies will be comparing their "Bell" (kill) rates. Whenever anyone thinks about killing - they will equate it with “Bell”, rather than “bump”.
Los Angeles can now compete with Avazino and San Francisco for a "No-Bell" (play on words, Nobel) prize!! "Let's make LA a No-Bell city!!
Channel 5 news tonight at 10:00 p.m. showed the results of the poll they had last night which asked the question "Do you think the LAPD was right in the way they handled the situation at MacArthur Park" (or wording to that effect) and the results were 80% said "YES" -- the police were correct.
LAzy Times said..."A Superior Court Judge found today that the Mayor and City Council acted in bad faith in passing the so-called "living wage" law, which was unconstitutional and violated the City Charter."
Yep, just another ordinary, typical day at LA City Hall.
12:28pm,
Fred Sandford is sitting here, next to me at Starbucks and wants to say something:
Fred Sandford said...YOU BIG DUMMY!
HOW MANY TIMES AM I GONNA HAVE TO TELL YO AZZ...You cannot have a succesful metropolis when all the rich people are living in one area, and all the low and middle income workers are living in the outskirts and commuting.
Any IDIOT can take the obvious, "tough luck charley" philosophy. WOW! You're so smart...Build expensive housing to get rid of all the cheap ass freeloaders and let all the rich people move in and everything will be perfect.
I would tell YOU to go read Deming, but Deming is a statistician, you want an economist.
I know, I know YOUR housekeeper, drycleaner, gas station clerk, receptionist, teachers, police, your attorney's office workers, the coffee barista at Starbucks, and waiter at your favorite restaurant commuting 90 minutes each way for $10/hour isn't the problem, it's everyone else's. And if they don't like it, work harder and move up in the world. Bro, it doesn't do any good to be a bunch of rich people on an island with no servants.
And besides, what the City is doing isn't actual supply and demand, as you are about to find out. OF COURSE EVERY DEVELOPER WANTS TO BUILD THE MOST EXPENSIVE BUILDING POSSIBLE. But that's not ACTUAL supply and demand.
Of course, what Econ. 101 dropout Shmucky Schumer doesn't realize is, we don't need him to save us. If sub-prime loans don't make economic sense, guess what, the companies that make them will go belly up or stop making these loans, or charge more for them. All of these have already happened, so Schumer is late to the party with his "solution". If I was to go over his voting record, I could probably find some bill he supported encouraging or practically requiring banks to make loans to the poor, the oppressed, the minorities (i.e., often subprime loans).
- Anon SFV Walter Moore supporter
Wrren Buffet, who is not nearly as smart as Chuck Shumer said yesterday that the sub-prime industry and some of the companies may suffer, but he did not expect it to run over to the general economy.
But of course, neither is as smart as ZD Deming, the super galactic expert on all things politic, legal and economic.
He is telling us how to live, and aren't we lucky to have a self appointed advocate to speak for us?
That's as lucky as having illegal immigrants tell us how lucky we are to have them clean our toilets, even if we didn't ask them to come here and do it.
How much longer can our great luck last?
7:40am,
First of all, I admire Warren Buffett for his performance record. Thanks for passing along his comment, because maybe he's right...and I'm gonna check into it further. But here's my only concern over Mr. Buffett in the "prediction" department...Of course he wants to keep an "everything is fine folks, nothing but good times ahead." Because that is in his financial best interest. BUT, hopefully, he is right, that the "sub-prime" market won't affect things from a more general widespread ecomonic effect...
BUT-- my point was in the first place, is the policy of "cutting back on risky sub primes" a SIGNAL that we are about to head into recession -- NOT BE THE CAUSE OF IT....(I know, you are so angry and hostile, you can't concentrate, and your reading comprehension suffers.
AND REGARDING THIS...ZD NEEDS A CLARIFICATION: "He (ZD) is telling us how to live." EXCUSE ME...where have I ever told anyone how to live. I would like to read my comments on that topic...I haven't seen them yet.
ZUMA DOGG
election press
electionpress.blogspot.com
If people were stupid and selfish enough to get mortagages and buy homes they couldn't afford, then tough s*!t. There is no way in hell that the govt should bail out these irresponsible people.
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