Newsom Fail: You Heard it Here First!

Whether you like it or not!

 
When we tell you that you've heard it here first, we mean you've heard it here first.  It didn't take long for California political scribes to jump on our analysis that the campaign of Gubernatorial candidate Gavin "I'm running whether you like it or not" Newsom is dangerously close to imploding. 

The thrust of our piece Monday was that Newsom has had such major trouble collecting any real campaign jack the San Francisco Mayor had to throw a hail mary pass and roll out a way earlier than usual endorsement of a former POTUS - Bill "BJ" Clinton in an LA photo opp at a green college building earlier this week.

According to the Fishwrap by the Bay, the San Francisco Chronicle the nod from the husband of the head yenta of the Sisterjhood of the Traveling Pantsuit netted G-New the endorsement of mega-bucks Democratic donor Susie Tompkins-Buell, Hilz BFF and multi-millionaire founder of Esprit who also dropped about 30Gs on Newsom.  We won't know for a few days how much dough a Gavin fundraiser held here in town with BJC scored, and then we can only glean that from required financial filings.

Though the Chronicle couldn't choke down attributing our story to uh, well, mainly us they did include a quote from Newsom svengali Garry South who said our story was "bullshit."  That, along with Betty "Pay to Play" Pleasant telling the old, dead Republican Mayor to "kiss her ass" really made our week.

In the meantime Newsweek also picked up the story of Gavin's potential implosion with a piece that makes pretty much the same point we did.

And then to add to the fun Calbuzz, pulling a Kevin Roderickesque no-comments move, gives South the chance to rant further with the boys there buying his well-crafted spin.  To South, who in his quote made a Freudian like prediction of a Jerry Brown primary victory, we say "uh-huh."  South fantasizes Jerry tweeted Gavin's troubles directly to the Sister City, which is laughable, he'd probably be surprised at our actual source.  Memo to the Buzzards, our headline was NOT a typo; it was intentional, G-New has indeed released "The Clinton."

Its nice to know that such major fishwraps are reading Mayor Sam! Maybe Betty Pleasant will want to take lessons.

The real reason why Team Newsom unleashed the Clinton so early in it's campaign.

Background: San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and President Bill Clinton are in Los Angeles today.

As we just witnessed in the Valley with the campaign of Krekorian and Essel – money does matter. And because it was a special election after Greuel won her Controller’s race money mattered very quickly.

And it is with that thought in my mind that I venture to delve into the Governor’s race:

Team Newsom unleashed Clinton because they might just have to fold up their tent in December.

You heard it here first on Mayor Sam – according to various accounts across California, Garry South has scolded Prince Gavin into a corner and is forcing him to finally fundraise if he wants to be viable. In fact, South has made his pronouncement to many outside of Team Newsom to the point that this old dead Mayor would now hear it. Either raise $5 million by December or drop out!

Some of you dum dums might demand that I back this up with some facts, so here you go.

Fact #1:

Garry South forced Eric Jaye Newsom’s longtime friend and strategist to quit http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/matierandross/detail?entry_id=44362

Fact #2 :

Typically a major endorsement by a former President would wait until voters pay attention to ensure massive media coverage, and that media strategists would be used to get this big endorsement out.

Yet we see that it was Newsom’s fundraisers who pushed Bill Clinton and forced the campaign to use him extremely early to meet Garry South’s demand.

http://www.calbuzz.com/2009/09/newsom-clinton-how-the-endorse-deal-got-done/

Fact # 3:

Newsom is either broke, in debt or getting ready to have a fire-sale.

Since July Newsom has only raised a paltry $152,541.00 in donations over $5,000.00. In fact, since the announcement of the Clinton endorsement only one person from Los Angeles has even donated $5,000 (Jeffrey Kwatinetz) or more. That is going to make for a sad VIP area unless they open it up to smaller donors.

Now you might be claiming that perhaps Newsom gets most of his donations under the $5,000 limit and thus would not have to report those donations within the 24 hour period that these large donations require once received.

Want to see the proof? Look here.

Since the beginning of Newsom opening his account he has raised approximately $3.7 million dollars with approximately $1.3 million coming from donations larger than $5,000 but smaller than $25,900.00.

Which means Newsom on average gets nearly 36% of his money from large donors – something no political reporter has ever published. Which means if we follow the standard trend of 36% coming from large donations – since July 1st the Newsom campaign has raised…$423,725.00. Which is just a few thousand dollars short of the money pro-Essel committees spent to get her less than 5,000 votes in the Valley.

Yet from Jan 1 – June 30th of 2009 Newsom spent $1.5 million. Which is an average monthly expenditure of $215,000.00. The months of July, August and now September are done which would mean they have spent $645,000.00 a net lost of $222,000.00.

Not exactly close to the $5 million Garry South is demanding.

It appears the Newsom campaign is going to be folding up its tent really soon, whether they like it or not.

P.S. What is most depressing about all of this is that not a single fish wrap reporter has even delved into this, they just accept whatever the campaign says and call it news.

Jill Stewart: "Villaraigosa abandon by Ace Smith??"

A shock early in the morning to read that the "Moe, Larry, and Curly" of "Team Villar" may be breaking up, that being Ace, Parke and Mike.

Jill stewart had this post yesterday at the LA Weekly's "LA Daily Blog".

Has Antonio Villaraigosa fallen so far back in the 2010 race for California governor that his former consultant and negative research hound Ace Smith, who dug dirt on Villaraigosa's mayoral rivals, is migrating over to help Attorney General Jerry Brown become governor?

The San Francisco Chronicle is reporting today that Ace Smith joined a "Jerry Brown for Governor" Facebook page, and that Smith responded to the Chron that his joining doesn't mean anything -- he signs up for lots of stuff.

But what a slap it was at Villaraigosa, as was the furtive Malibu meeting last week between top California Democratic hatchet man Garry South and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom. Relentlessly persistent and increasingly noticed blogger Zuma Dogg got that scoop -- and the video to prove it.

And what would this post be without an "Act of Spin"??

Well, for one thing, Jerry Brown's declared for Gov and Antonio hasn't and is insisting he likes his current job -- so maybe Ace is doing what any other indie contractor always does, hedging his bets to be sure of some sort of job. But did you HAVE to pat that obnocious dogg on the head like that? A pimple that turns into a giant boil is increasingly noticed, too. Too bad it's on our taxpayer dime on public television intended to give viewers access to City Council, not free PR for gadgnats and "Candidates for Mayor" like he claims to be. (In which case, he needs to comply with Ethics rules and those which apply for candidates for office since free PR is a pro bono public gift to his "campaign.") Even a persistent nuisance eventually stumbles on a "story" if he's looking to stick his nose everywhere -- in this case, he had no idea it was Newsom when he went upto him to tell him to move his giant SUV out of a firelane. Now, THAT tells me a lot about Newsom -- coming to this city for an allegedly "secret" meeting with a well-known operative, and parking in the firelane in a high-fire danger area! What an arrogant creepozoid! Hope he ends up in jail for actively aiding and abetting murderers, drug dealers and other illegal felons by flying them to their home countries with escort, with the expressed intent to avoiding ICE, and/or giving them housing in OTHER SoCal cities without bothering to tell local officials!
Posted on August 12, 2008 11:37 AM by zoloft 2010

This, in only the eighth month of 2008!!!

So You Want to Be a Pundit?

The American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) held their annual Pollie Awards and Conference this past week in Santa Monica. Look for segment on The Daily Show the week after next with the very funny John Oliver. There are a few more AAPC conference clips to follow (Mark Mellman, Bill Carrick, etc.) but I thought you might enjoy these punditry pieces in the meantime. They're from the highly entertaining/informative "So You Want to Be a Pundit?" session and local pundits Bob Stern, Susan Estrich and Garry South are featured.

• Bob Stern - "The 10 Commandments of Punditry"
• Susan Estrich - "Hair Extensions, Breast Implants & 3 p.m. Availability"
• Garry South - "The Real Meaning of Punditry" Part 1
• Garry South - "The Real Meaning of Punditry" Part 2

(Full Disclosure: I did outreach for the event and serve on the AAPC Communications Committee.)

Enjoy future pundits ...