Survey USA poll
Here are the crosstabs of the poll.
Tony Villar has significant leads in virtually every demographic --
Hahn is holding the line with Republicans, self described conservatives and he has a 2 point lead among seniors.
Also, we here at Sister City broke the news first about Hahn going negative.
The Hahn campaign decided to shoot from the hip - knowing that nothing they've tested works in bringing voters "back home" (as nate holden would say) to the hahn column. They are hoping the florida scandal (without any polling data to support this thesis) will bring Tony Villar's numbers back to earth.
Unfortunately for Hahn, his buy is small, miniscule at best. Looks like Hahn purchased 150-250 points, all media buyers know you need at least 1,000 points to get any real traction behind any advertisement.
But perhaps the Hahn campaign, without any polling data or enough money for a significant buy can turn this campaign around. Maybe this ad will do the trick, because I am sure the Hahn campaign is saving their box cutter ad for later this week. Friday sounds like a good day to release the boxcutter ad -- how about you Kam?
The Hahnistas have a major leak in their boat and it's not the captain leaking for a change.
Tony Villar has significant leads in virtually every demographic --
Hahn is holding the line with Republicans, self described conservatives and he has a 2 point lead among seniors.
Also, we here at Sister City broke the news first about Hahn going negative.
The Hahn campaign decided to shoot from the hip - knowing that nothing they've tested works in bringing voters "back home" (as nate holden would say) to the hahn column. They are hoping the florida scandal (without any polling data to support this thesis) will bring Tony Villar's numbers back to earth.
Unfortunately for Hahn, his buy is small, miniscule at best. Looks like Hahn purchased 150-250 points, all media buyers know you need at least 1,000 points to get any real traction behind any advertisement.
But perhaps the Hahn campaign, without any polling data or enough money for a significant buy can turn this campaign around. Maybe this ad will do the trick, because I am sure the Hahn campaign is saving their box cutter ad for later this week. Friday sounds like a good day to release the boxcutter ad -- how about you Kam?
The Hahnistas have a major leak in their boat and it's not the captain leaking for a change.
Posted by Anonymous @ 5/03/2005 08:09:00 PM
47 Comments:
Leak - that boat hit the rocks and is now breaking up. Most of the rats have already jumped - only a few left.
Only 29 points ahead? Boy, those CD 14ers have really done a job on Antonio.
He's down 3 whole points and only less than two weeks to go.
It is clear that he is sinking like a lead balloon.
Looks like the Florida stuff, plus Merulo really hit the mark. NOT.
Cuidado! Stay away from the doors in Room 300 of the City Hall the next two weeks to avoid being hit by resumes flying out the door at hyperspeed.
Another notch in the guns of the Wardlaw/Carrick duo. Hey guys,it may be time to hang it up.
There is no joy in Mudville, for Mighty Hahn has struck out....
Mayor Hahn steps up to the plate...
Swing Mayor Mayor Mayor Swing!!!...
Doh!!!
wow, just say one of the union ads for Hahn. What a LAMER. That's probably worse than the Alarcon ads! horrible
And that fact of the matter is the Hahnistas are going to lose the ground game big time - so if that is their last hope - well, keep hoping.
"We think they're in free fall and desperate to stop any drop," Kam Kuwata said.
(From 5/3/05 Daily News)
Who was he talking about?
You guys crack me up. Hahn was behind 24% in 2001 and pulled it off. Yes,it was those ads showing that ADV helped released a convicted druggie. People I'm talking to say that still bothers them. ADV is Chair of Transportation and hasn't done anything about traffic, sits on Education and Neighborhood Committee and hasn't done anything about education and let his best friend buy land that was meant for a school. ADV no matter will not pull it off this time. Voters don't want an ACLU guy as mayor.
Brilliant!
You claim on that Hahn isn't polling, but then say that they've "tested" messages.
Ace, Parke, MEAT, Chief Parker you guys should coach ADV how to respond to media. He always makes an ass out of himself. Today's
LA Times....Villaraigosa said he is from the Jesse Unruh school of politics. "If you can't tell your friends 'No,' then you shouldn't be in public service," he said. "I've got to be able to tell my friends 'No.' I've got to be able to look you in the eye and tell you 'No.' "
Unruh, who ruled the Assembly as speaker during the 1960s, also coined the phrase: "Money is the mother's milk of politics."
Today's papers ALL NEGTIVE ON ADV. Hahn doesn't have to spend a dime.
Daily News letter from an ADV constituent.
Not my candidate
Re "Villaraigosa for mayor" (Editorial, May 1):
I am not certain you are writing about same mayoral candidate when you endorsed Antonio Villaraigosa for mayor. He has been my assemblyman and my councilman and I cannot recall anything he has done in all his years. As assemblyman, he could have improved the north 110 Freeway, but he didn't.
As councilman, he could have cleaned up Eagle Rock, Highland Park and Boyle Heights, but he hasn't. He did lie to the voters and said he would serve a full term as councilman. He should have resigned as councilman when he ran for mayor. That's the only good thing that may happen: he might get to be mayor and we in Northeast L.A. would not have to deal with him.
Michael P. Rives
Eagle Rock
Letters columns always try to run balanced responses from readers... where are all the adamant ADV supporters defending their boy?
Only Anti-Hahn people who think ADV is their "only choice."
Didn't work for Kerry -- won't work for his demagogue Twin, ADV.
Survey USA's crosstabs are less relevant than the rants and postings of anonymous people here. There are more anti-ADV and anti-Hahn people posting on this blog than that survey counts in each subgroup (by ROBOT).
Stick a fork in SurveyUSA, they're done in L.A.
If KABC didn't already have a run-of-show contract with these people they'd have been axed after the primary (says inside TV exec).
They're embarrassed by it -- you should be embarrassed to quote it here.
FROM MEAT:
Reall Hahn was down 24% 4 years ago?
Not true, at best there was a Survey Usa poll that had Antonio up 3 points 44-41 3 weeks before election day.
I am sure it makes you feel better to think that Hahn has comeback from a 24 point lead to make your days of working on the campaign worthwhile. Unfortantely it's not true.
So keep on lying to yourself -- bloggers here seem to like to do it to themselves everyday.
MEAT & Chief Parker where is the investigation of the made up 80 neighborhood watches? Heard a reporter who reads this blog is doing an investigation of their own. TIMING TIMING TIMING.
It will show ADV has one big liar. Everyone knows he's been lying but then again will be great to add to all the negative stories the newspapers are doing on him now.
laobserved.com....I wonder if the Times is kicking itself. The paper had a reporter with Villaraigosa on last month's Florida fundraising tour, but he didn't pick up on the newsworthy figures involved or the ties to airport contracts. The reporter, John-Thor Dahlburg, is based there, so may simply have missed the L.A. context for the events.
Danny Bakewell just endorsed ADV. This is an idiot who was telling the blacks to burn down the city when the Stanley Miller case came out. This is the guy who got arrested at a police commission meeting for disorderly conduct and trying to incite a riot. This is a guy who is the most racist activist in the city. This is a guy who thinks violence is the way to resolve problems.
This is the guy ADV chooses to hang with. Guilt by association
What, is there a Hahn event today?
Seems like they just got the staff commenter working today.
MEAT, it appears soon none of the bloggers will need to "lie to themselves" anymore. It appears we are all doomed to have a mayor, in ADV to lies to us, everyday, all day.
Until we learn better, we will be fated to become no only the nation's second largest city but also it's largest 3rd world metropolis.
Hahn will look VERY good in retrospect, within as little as six months -- just as activists in CD14 have been saying for months now, "remember how easy it was to get things done when Pacheco was CM?"
LOU, you're one to talk about "staff commentators" -- when the dirty Fla. money story came down EVERY single ADV-lover that ID's by screen name (except Chief P.) made tracks and didn't post for a full 24.
There's really not a lot to say about this poll. It's been the worst number-crunching of the campaign, and everyone wants to spin it somehow -- it's just easier to spin if you're enamored with the myth of Villaraigosa.
The final two weeks are the game -- 4th quarter and all that crap. Citywide, ADV is a poor finisher historically, and Hahn has a better final kick - but he's never been behind this far before (not 29 points, PLEASE, it's SludgewayUSA, not an ACTUAL professional poll!).
The smear appears to have worked . So if ADV wins we should all hoop and hollar, why?
That we've got a mayor who the better at smearing an opponent for life without proof?
That we finally have a "Latino" mayor -- even though he's the "runt" of the litter ethically and in terms of accomplishments in city office?
That the Hahn-haters have traded down for spite?
That you CAN fool most of the people for long enough to get elected?
That the same city that pronounced O.J. and Bobby Blake "not guilty" under a mountain of proof, booted out a "guilty" Hahn without an ounce of proof?
The only thing worst than ADV's campaign "finish" in the past has been his encore -- after the election.
Less and less people will be celebrating this as time goes on.
If he wins, we're not served, we're screwed.
Textbooks will be writing about this in the future -- but not because of the campaign... it'll be because of the decline of L.A. as a 21st century city under a 20th century dinosaur pol.
Lev, except in ADV's case this time it was "take their money, VOTE the way they want, then give the money back (once caught), and say 'see no harm, no foul?"
A STUPID, arrogant corrupt pol... what a prize. AT least history shows that when ADV's kind goes down, it's not via recall or being denied a second term... they REALLY go down (but often take the city/state, whatever, with them).
Hahn's contributors may eventually do time, but within 3-4 years, ADV will be bumming smokes from them in the cellblock.
Guaranteed.
IE radio ads for ADV are on - engineers and architects? HORRIBLE to listen to - voiceovers sound like someone work them up from a nap to burn the disks, and they contradict the TV ads ADV is running himself. Sounds like they're not "sound" engineers, anyway.
I note that this blog isn't linking or commenting on any of the local newspaper coverage anymore...
Why is that?
(Ace & Parke told you not to -- right? They've lost control of the Times and DN in the final weeks).
Looks like the Hahn folks are giving up.
You think? Looks to me like the Anti-ADV people know the weakest link in Tony's little chain of delusion -- overconfidence and arrogance.
Luring you in, and so far, you're nibbling?
MAYBE all those Hahnistas you imagine here have FINALLY taken your advice and are out digging up more dirt on ADV. It's like gold in El Dorado -- just lying (pun) there, everywhere, for anyone to take.
I LOVE Anon 12:38
I mean, the gall to blame Antonio for "smearing" Hahn... when we all saw what Hahn did to Antonio 4 years ago... and when we all saw what Hahn did to Hertzberg and Antonio 4 months ago.
I say good for you Antonio for sticking it to Hahn, like he sticks it to everybody else.
If Hahn weren't such a dirty campaigner, maybe we could spend more time on the issues.
Well, maybe Hahn wouldn't want that either...
BECAUSE!!!
Antonio Villaraigosa is a pathological liar who can't be trusted to do what he says.
Someone prove me wrong (day 46). And just because of lot of people believe his lies, don't mean he AIN'T!
End of story!
OH, 1:14 p.m., AND WHAT, pray tell (and please let Steve Lopez at the Times know, too... cuz he missed it) WERE ADV's "issues" other than Hahn's alleged, unproven "corruption." What WOULD he have offered viable solution for -- if not for the opportunity to publically smear someone who dissed him 4 years ago?
ADV never HAS any "issues" to run on other than payback, EVER. And your little rant, JUST proved it.
Remember his "issues" in 2003 -- other than Pacheco's "corruption?"
Anyone, anyone???
(Now, if you REALLY love ADV, you better not say, because what little there was, HASN'T BEEN TOUCHED YET!!!) And IF he wins, and IF he runs for re-election in 4 years (from Sacramento?)... what promises will he be able to say he delivered on? "I did what I said I would do -- I booted out Hahn." All through, amen. Can I got run for something else now???
"Need a fresh start, need a fresh start, need a fresh start!"
DAMN, this guy isn't a mayoral candidate -- he's a fucking feminine hygiene product.
TONY the douche bag! Give's you that FRESH feeling day-after-day for half his term, then leaves you stinking worse than before... just ask the people who've tried to work him for two abesntee years in his district (most of whom have ENDORSED HAHN!)
Eliseo - Three more days to go with your recall that will change this election!
Where are the signatures? How many do we have? How many do we need?
End of story!
I rest my case!
Ha!
Hal Netkin has been endorsing Jim Hahn for 4 years now.
Hal netking a known member of American patrol a group listed by the southern law povtery center as a group that associates themselves with known neo-nazis and KKK members.
FROM MEAT:
Happpy to see Hahn can trick latinos like the ones we saw on saturday to campaign side by side with Hal Netkin. Hopefully those kids know what side of the fence they really are on.
how rolando or art pulido can sleep (together or not) on the same side has neo nazis and KKK members is beyond me.
Bottom line, ranter, the recall has TONS more signatures than Tony's little starry eyed lovers would EVER be willing to admit he deserves.
Says something... says he isn't "Mr. Consenus" - he doesn't "bring people together" - he's NOT "hands on" and he doesn't listen to his constituents - never has, never will.
He's wrong, he lies big, he has made more enemies in CD14 in two years than any recent CM who served 1-2 full terms, including one's who were almost indicted.
He never had "constituent support" to run for mayor -- another huge lie. He was just always expected to, because his massive, selfish ego couldn't contain itself in such a lowly, public service-oriented job. Even people who supported him all along know he's a non-stop liar. They just hope he isn't lying THIS time, to THEM, about anything REALLY important.
But he is... he ALWAYS is.
Silly, silly supporters... the RUNAWAY CANDIDATE leaves you holding the bag next.
But you can't get your "deposits" back on this one.
How ADV can crawl in bed with racists like MAD Maxine and "burn-baby-burn" Bakewell should be beyond anyone with a rational mind.
Eliseo, talk is cheap.
Show us the signatures.
Signatures talk, B.S. walks.
Here's the headline:
"VILLARAIGOSA RECALL EFFORT FAILS"
Not, we a got a lot of signatures and people really think he is a pathological liar, a fraud and a cheap. Just simple:
"VILLARAIGOSA RECALL EFFORT FAILS".
Thanks for all your help...
ADV lovers you don't think today's headlines are going to hurt ADV? Think again!!!!!!!
LA TIMES
Donations by Family Prompt Questions
Developer's spending to aid Villaraigosa, and purchase of land sought for school, spur critics.
Richard Meruelo, a developer with major real estate holdings in downtown Los Angeles, and members of his extended family have spent more than $103,000 trying to elect Antonio Villaraigosa as mayor…….Meruelo has also stirred anger from some residents of neighborhoods affected by his real estate dealings, particularly in Glassell Park, where he recently bought property on which the Los Angeles Unified School District wanted to build a high school for 2,300 students.
DAILY NEWS.....Mayor questions Villaraigosa donations from Florida firms.....At the same time, the challenger found himself responding to questions about developer Richard Meruelo, who has contributed more than $82,000 in an independent expenditure on Villaraigosa's behalf and worked to generate $54,000 more in contributions, according to a Daily Breeze report.Meruelo, who lives in Whittier and Miami, has become a controversial figure locally because of a dispute he has had with the Los Angeles Unified School District over his purchase of property that had been designated for a new school.
DAILY BREEZE.......Miami businessmen aided Villaraigosa campaign ......Two who helped raise funds for L.A. mayor's race have airport ties. One drew fire over Florida contract.....Two businessmen with contracts to operate airport gift shops -- including one who was the subject of a scathing report on gift shops at Miami International Airport -- held fund-raisers last month in Miami for mayoral candidate Antonio Villaraigosa, according to records obtained by Copley News Service. Sergio Pino, a major home builder in Florida, hosted one fund-raising event for Villaraigosa on April 13. Hours later, Villaraigosa attended a fund-raising dinner hosted by Bernard Klepach, president of DTR Travel Retail, which operates one store and three kiosks at Los Angeles International Airport.
Meruelo
http://www.dailybreeze.com/news/articles/1536922.html
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/state/la-me-meruelo4may04,1,7710512.story?coll=la-news-state&ctrack=2&cset=true
http://www.dailybreeze.com/news/articles/1541697.html
http://www.labusinessjournal.com/article.asp?aID=02020118.639307.1138670.85421502.8949748.600&aID2=87581
The elections complaint focuses on several campaign contributions made by Bernard Klepach, a Miami businessman who has formed several corporations. The complaint said that Klepach essentially bribed Wells in 2002 or 2003 for about $5,000 for law enforcement credentials.
WHOA, now let me get THIS straight, because the IRONY sure missed the L.A. Times team of hunt-and-pecker-heads.
This Cubano, GOP developer that stole the much-needed school land in Northeast L.A. (because Huizar and LAUSD were "taking too long" to buy it), has ponied up BIG bucks to send out mailers showing Big Arnold's STATE "education chief" talking up Mr. Parochial, Tony V. "I support public schools" as the best mayoral choice we have.
And when ADV is asked about this he says. Yeah, land-thief Murelo is a good buddy, and I REALLY wish he hadn't done that (but I know NOTHING, NOTHING about it).
I know someone here said ADV had some key Republican support, but I had NO idea they meant the educational "support" team of Murelo and Riordan!
This will do WONDERS for the home-schooling movement in L.A.
Northeast high schools will be able to hold open air graduations in that teeny, tiny dog parke before long, when they're only graduation 1 out of 10.
As anon 7:33 posted earlier the following:
"...LA Times....Villaraigosa said he is from the Jesse Unruh school of politics. "If you can't tell your friends 'No,' then you shouldn't be in public service," he said. "I've got to be able to tell my friends 'No.' I've got to be able to look you in the eye and tell you 'No.' "
Unruh, who ruled the Assembly as speaker during the 1960s, also coined the phrase: "Money is the mother's milk of politics."
__________________________________
This phrase and mentality of ADV followers must be common in FLORIDA. Following article has been taken FYI. (Sun Sentinel)__
__________________________________
Fund-raisers draw Hispanic politicians to Miami
By Sandra Hernandez, Staff Writer
If money is the milk of politics, then Miami has become the cash cow for Latino office seekers.
"...The latest example is Los Angeles mayoral hopeful Antonio Villaraigosa, who will swing through South Florida today, raising big bucks from contributors who will never cast a vote in that city's election.
"This isn't a fund-raising circuit organized around party, it's organized around ethnicity," said Dario Moreno, head of Florida International University's Metropolitan Center, a research facility focused on South Florida politics. "What you are seeing is the emergence of a transnational network."
This informal network began nearly five years ago, as prominent Latino elected officials developed business relationships in cities such as Los Angeles, New York and Miami.
"Miami is the fulcrum," said Fernando Guerra, a political scientist at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. "It's the No. 1 location in the circuit. It's No. 1 in terms of wealthy Latinos and No. 1 in terms of fund-raising."
South Florida Latinos with deep pockets have attracted their ethnic brethren, including Democrats such as U.S. Rep. Bob Menendez of New Jersey, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, and California Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante.
Here, candidates can raise thousands of dollars from other Latinos in a few hours.
Villaraigosa is said to have collected about $100,000 in 2000 when he made an unsuccessful bid for mayor and came to Miami. He is expected to draw a similar amount today at four events, including soirees hosted by former Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas and his fund-raiser Fred Menachem, media consultant Jose Cancela and developer Sergio Pino, and at a private dinner given by businessman Bernard Klepach.
While Florida remains one of the biggest fund-raising states and similar networks exist in the black and Jewish communities, analysts say this circuit is unique because it gets high-profile Hispanic Republican and Democratic donors in the same room.
"You see a lot of bipartisanship at these events," said Cancela, a Democrat and former Univision executive who now runs HispanicUSA, a Coral Gables consulting firm. "You don't get a bigger Republican than Sergio [Pino], but he understands the value of a quality candidate who could be the first Hispanic mayor of Los Angeles in a hundred years."
Donors like Pino agree, saying he is co-hosting the event with Cancela because of Villaraigosa's Latino roots. His stepfather is Cuban-American. "He's a prominent Hispanic and it's kind of exciting because he is an up-and-coming Hispanic," said Pino, who has raised thousands for Jeb and George W. Bush.
For some observers, this informal network reflects the financial and political success Latinos are achieving around the country. With their buying power estimated to hit $700 billion this year, and an increased presence in the boardroom and in public office, Latinos finally are poised to become major donors who can back candidates.
"What you are seeing is really a new thing," said Sergio Bendixen, a veteran pollster and Democratic strategist. "In the past, Hispanics didn't tend to get involved in the financial segment of political campaigns, with the exception of Cuban-Americans, but now you are seeing Mexican-Americans, Puerto Ricans and Cubans getting involved in other cities."
The goal is made easier as Latinos in cities across the country realize they face many of the same issues regardless of party affiliation.
"This shows a developing national agenda where Latinos across the country understand this is symbolic politics over substantial politics," Guerra said. "If a Latino does well in other cities it benefits Latinos in Miami because their profile is also raised."
Sandra Hernandez can be reached at shernandez@sun-sentinel.com or 954-356-4514.
Hey ANON, 2:22. Try this. . .
CHIEF PARKER, talk is cheap.
Show us the 80 INVISIBLE NEIGHBORHOOD WATCHES.
WATCHES talk, B.S. walks.
Here's the headline:
"VILLARAIGOSA LIES ABOUT ONLY 'ACCOMPLISHMENT' IN DISTRICT"
Not, we a got a lot of people who don't want anyone to KNOW they joined a watch organization, so we can't even ID the GROUP or its general LOCATION, or, we're just not SURE how many of the 576 watches we've now identified by placing crank calls to the UNDERstaffed LAPD are ADV's creation, but people really THINK ADV has done something about crime -- he just can't PROVE it (because he IS a pathological liar, a fraud and a CONMAN). Just simple:
"VILLARAIGOSA LIES ABOUT ONLY 'ACCOMPLISHMENT' IN DISTRICT"
(Oh, and the second head is...)
What the HELL was he doing to earn his pay for 24 months?
Thanks for all your help...
ADV staff will not answer the 80 Neighborhood Watch question...this will tarnish the mirage or prepackaged candidate that has been fed to the public. There are not 80 Neighborhood watches, why does a journalist just ask ADV at a public meeting? I wonder why he has not been asked this question?
How's that recall going?
I'm waiting for that BIG ANNOUNCEMENT just ANY DAY now.
I'm sure you guys have got all the strategy figured out to SPRING THE BIG NEWS right before Election Day.
What a crock.
Anon 12:14 :
Please!! Lets see what was it that NIck did for CD 14? oh right he alloweed us to be able to walk around dead people! I live in the district and that is all I can remember him doing! hmm maybe that is why he fell on his ass when AV came to town!!! he had so many supporters what happened? He thinks he has a chance getting back into office PLEASE!!!!
Villaraigosa won CD 14 because he boasted about his humble beginnings and how he overcame, but the residents did not know the true Villaraigosa involved with protecting street gangs, drug dealers, abuse, moral inept capabilities, unproductive, neglects his voters, and lies.
Well, looks like the Hahn commentor must have just had a Doctor's appointment to excise the Survey USA poll that was recently rammed up his ass.
What's that I hear you mumbling?
That's what I thought. Keep spewing, laughing boy. All debts will be paid on election day.
Oh? And Eliseo? You ain't got shit for signatures and no circle-jerk on this blog is going to make any difference.
Anon 3:39
Come on Antonio won CD 14 because we were all tired of Nick not doing anything!! All of you Nick flukies are just upset because he lost! Didn't he try to run for District Attorney? Silly Nick! Keep your day job...
No waiting and springing on the recall; the deadline is May 7.
Do or die.
Any bets?
Nick not DOING anything, you are a moron.
Pacheco left dozens of projects started and at least partially funded, after completing dozens of others in 4 years.
His term in office looks like a whirlwind of progress compared to the "progressive" ADV. ADV has YET to complete one item on the transition list from Pacheco -- and they were ALL things the communities had begged to have organized.
ADV is a thief, who stole the districts time and energy, and only used it for self-promotion. He will be remembered as worse than Art Snyder, or Alatorre, almost a non-event.
Mayor or not, in a few years people will say ADV was on CITY COUNCIL?? No, prove it!
And NO ONE WILL BE ABLE to prove it.
So again when we think of Nick Pacheco and what he did for CD14 what do we say? I see dead people? Yeah, thanks for the walk around the cementary! Which by the way you had completed in a hurry so that you could say you did something!!! Mean while the trees in fron of your mom's house had all of it's Ficus roots coming out of the ground!! I'm sure you will read this Nick and put your spin to tell the people what you did after all you want back in!!! Keep a knocking.
Totally incomprehensible... no need to guess who the last poster is supporting!
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