Is Mayor Villaraigosa boasting false crime stats?
Walter Moore wrote yesterday that LAPD — and by extension, Mayor Villaraigosa — are understating the city’s crime rate by using an inflated population estimate. When I saw the number — 4,220,260 — it looked suspicious so I decided to do some digging.
I pulled population estimates for 2000 through 2007 from both the US Census Bureau and the California Department of Finance, and compared them to the figures LAPD uses in its crime statistics reports. Here’s what I found:
Not once between 2000–07 were LAPD’s population estimates anywhere near the Census Bureau estimates — not even within 100,000 people. In fact, LAPD’s estimate was consistently 3% greater than the Census Bureau’s until 2005, when it more than doubled to 7%. Then, the following year, it shot up again, to 9% — nearly 400,000 more LA city residents, according to LAPD, than estimated by the Census Bureau. In other words, more than the combined populations of Burbank, Glendale, and Santa Monica.
LAPD vs. US Census Bureau
The California Department of Finance’s numbers were closer to LAPD’s, but still failed to explain the threefold spike between 2004 and 2006. What’s more, it appears LAPD actually used the DOF estimate in 2000, before increasing it significantly for subsequent years’ reports. Perhaps strangest of all, LAPD’s estimates remain unchanged from 2003–04, and again from 2006–08.
LAPD vs. California Department of Finance
None of the population estimates in LAPD’s COMSTAT reports are sourced.
I’m not charging crookery here, but at face value, this is all very odd. Considering that these statistics have been published by our local press, and will undoubtedly feature prominently in the mayor’s reelection campaign, voters deserve to know LAPD’s source and/or methodology.
I pulled population estimates for 2000 through 2007 from both the US Census Bureau and the California Department of Finance, and compared them to the figures LAPD uses in its crime statistics reports. Here’s what I found:
Not once between 2000–07 were LAPD’s population estimates anywhere near the Census Bureau estimates — not even within 100,000 people. In fact, LAPD’s estimate was consistently 3% greater than the Census Bureau’s until 2005, when it more than doubled to 7%. Then, the following year, it shot up again, to 9% — nearly 400,000 more LA city residents, according to LAPD, than estimated by the Census Bureau. In other words, more than the combined populations of Burbank, Glendale, and Santa Monica.
LAPD vs. US Census Bureau
The California Department of Finance’s numbers were closer to LAPD’s, but still failed to explain the threefold spike between 2004 and 2006. What’s more, it appears LAPD actually used the DOF estimate in 2000, before increasing it significantly for subsequent years’ reports. Perhaps strangest of all, LAPD’s estimates remain unchanged from 2003–04, and again from 2006–08.
LAPD vs. California Department of Finance
None of the population estimates in LAPD’s COMSTAT reports are sourced.
I’m not charging crookery here, but at face value, this is all very odd. Considering that these statistics have been published by our local press, and will undoubtedly feature prominently in the mayor’s reelection campaign, voters deserve to know LAPD’s source and/or methodology.
Labels: chief william bratton, mayor antonio villaraigosa, walter moore
Posted by solomon @ 9/11/2008 09:30:00 AM
24 Comments:
First of all,
DO YOU BELIVE A DAMM THING THIS LITTLE PIECE OF SHIT SAYS.
hE IS LIKE THE BILL CLINTON OF LA
HE LIES,LIES AND LIES
JUST GO AWAY MIDGET NO ONE WANTS YOU WETBACK!!
look on every street corner for the added figures...illegals
L.A. WEEKLY has a fantastic hatchet job on Villar today:
http://www.laweekly.com/2008-09-11/news/the-all-about-me-mayor/3
---------------------------------
Villar and Bratton have NO credibility whatsover!!! THEY ARE PATHOLOGICAL LIARS!!! Does anyone believe one word of the crap they are shoving down our throats???
Villar said the homicide rate was the lowest since 1967!!! WHAT CRAP!!! My first child was born in 1967, and I can tell you first hand that:
a.) We had NO gangbangers.
b.) Whites were the majority.
c.) The schools were second highest in the nation.
d.) Everyone spoke English.
e.) The city was clean.
AND THE MURDER RATE WAS NEGLIGIBLE!!!
These liars are forgetting that there are people like myself who actually KNOW what's going on in this city! Bratton is a transplant and Villar is a low-life Mexican anchor baby. Neither one of them has a clue as to the history of this city! They are interlopers and traitors! They are anti-American agents of Mexico!
And, more importantly...VILLAR AND BRATTON DON'T GIVE A SHIT WHAT YOU AND I THINK...IT'S ALL ABOUT THEMSELVES!
GET READY TO VOTE THEIR ASSES OUT OF OFFICE!!!
So did anyone correct the LAPD stats for the difference in population numbers?
If so, please post them here...
10:21 hit the nail on the head. A brilliant scheme too.
Bratton/Villar can claim that because illegals are "in the shadows", the out-of-touch whiteboys at the U.S. Census can't come up with a reliable count.
So being the local, Proud Progressive amigos of the illegal community that they are, Bratton/Villar come up with their own "informed" population estimate.
And gosh darn wouldn't you know, it also makes the crime rate look lower than it really is!
Los Angeles was one of several U.S. cities that sued the Dpartment of Commerce for chronically undercounting population in major metropolitan areas census after census.(And lost the case because the Reagan-Bush Supreme Court worried about the potential impact on reapportioning the House of Representatives taking away Republiican seats). The National Academy of Sciences and statistic experts agree that the way the census is conducted results in a huge undercount in cities with large minority and immigrant populations. Have you ever seen how many illegals crowd into an apartment? Do you think they fill out a census questionnaire or answer the door when a U.S. government official tries to follow up when questionnaires are not returned? Mayor Sam and Walter Moore can't have it both ways: complaining about all the illegal aliens( and the crime they cause) and then saying that they don't exist and should not be counted. LAPD's numbers look about right.
10:34- the best way to do it would be to use the CA Finance Department numbers since LAPD saw fit to use them in 2000.
It would not be an insignificant undertaking. I hope someone does it though.
A Special Agenda Item for the City Council Fri 9/12/08... The Dept of Planning is trying to ramrod a zoning ordinance for Sunland Tujunga, regarding a proposed Sunland/Tujunga Residential Floor Area District. Most residents oppose it. The STNC and Councilmember Greuel are in favor. It forces all remodels and new houses to be smaller, 30% of the lot size. Special case instances can make the house a bit larger. Dept of Planning wants Sunland/Tujunga to be LOW INCOME, small houses.
GO TO THE CITY COUNCIL MEETING MEETING tomorrow 9/12 AND OPPOSE THIS.
Case # 08-2348
http://musastan.sitesled.com for more info.
HOW'S THIS FOR RAMRODDING SOMETHING THE COMMUNITY DOESN'T WANT
09/10/2008 Planning and Land Use Management Committee scheduled item for Council on September 12, 2008.
09/10/2008 Planning and Land Use Management Committee waived consideration of item.
09/10/2008 Los Angeles City Planning Commission report(s) referred to Planning and Land Use Management Committee. Click to view online docs
09/09/2008 Document(s) submitted by Los Angeles City Planning Commission, as follows:
Los Angeles City Planning Commission report, dated September 9, 2008, relative to an ordinance and zone change for Case No. CPC-2008-2861-RFA, located in Sunland-Tujunga; Applicant: City of Los Angeles. Click to view online docs
09/08/2008 Los Angeles City Planning Commission report(s) referred to Planning and Land Use Management Committee. Click to view online docs
09/05/2008 Document(s) submitted by Los Angeles City Planning Commission, as follows:
Los Angeles City Planning Commission report, dated September 4, 2008, relative to an ordinance to establish a Residential Floor Area Supplemental Use District; Case No. CPC-2008-2861-RFA; Location: Sunland-Tujunga-Lake Terrace-Shadow Hills-East La Tuna Canyon; Applicant: City of Los Angeles.
Wait... This is the Mansionization ordinance again, yes? This isn't new news. It's just being pushed through quickly before Wendy gets out of office.
Have you seen the two new "houses" on Foothill clinging to the precipice above the Angeles National Golf Course? The entire lot side to side, end to end is taken up by them. I feel really sorry for the third house in- the one that used to be on the end. No more sunlight or views for those people!
I'm FOR the change.
As for the office pool on when the cliff falls out from under those two new houses, you can still get in on it. I'm taking less than five years.
How can it be a hatchet job if it's the truth?
What a joke - Mayor VillaBaboso and Chief Bratton bragging about the low murder rate and comparing it to 1967 murder rate. First of all these clowns are bragging about 5 few murders this summer. If you look at the L.A. Homicide report the city has daily murders and even more shootings. If the cholos were better marksman or not high on cocaine the murder rate would be 2x -3x higher right now.
And more gunshot victims survive today than just a years ago, with the constant advancement in the medical field. I know someone who survived a gun shot to the head which just a few ago would have been a sure death.
There have been more officer involved shootings in the L.A than ever before and two police officers who were recently killed in L.A. come to mind, Sheriff Deputy Juan Escalante and SWAT officer Randall Simmons.
The Mayor and Police Chief can try and tell me Los Angeles is a safe city but that is like someone putting lipstick on a pig and telling me she is beauty contestant with nice red lips.
I'll spare you the arithmetic, but if the actual population is 3.8 million, and the inflated population is 4.2 million, then the crime rate winds up looking 10% better, i.e., 10% lower, than it really is.
However, if they are willing to lie about the population, why assume they're telling the truth about the other statistics (e.g., numbers of various crimes)?
WHINY, COMPLAINING CRYBABIES. WHY DON'T YOU TAKE IT TO THE STREETS INSTEAD ON THIS BLOG. DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. GO TO CITY COUNCIL, SPEAK AT PUBLIC COMMENT WHEN ALL THE MEDIA IS THERE IN THE BACK. STOP ACTING LIKE GIRLS AND IF YOU DISAGREE HAVE A PRESS CONF. BUT STOP CRYING ON THIS BLOG WHERE IT DOESN'T MATTER.
4:42, council staffers do pay attention to this blog. You should see the spinning by some of them here - some of them should be dizzy from spinning so much!
I agree with poster who says you can't have it both ways: always complaining about the illegals who're uncounted, then complaining when the LAPD's estimate figures them in. No doubt the official census is too low, illegals try to hide as much as possible.
Even Delgadillo (in his OpEd for the Times) supports what the Rand Corp. just reported: illegal gangmembers commit the most repeat crimes, especially those deported who return. Which they all do, to protect their "business interests."
10:28 am- the recollection and context is slightly different for 1967 than mine- since that's when I graduated from LAUSD.
There were gangs then. They had existed for decades, but they were not functioning then as the drug-dealing and protection-peddling businesses, quick to resort to deadly violence at the slightest provocation as they do now. Back then they usually kept things within their internal scheme of things, not involving outsiders, and they were not the urban terrorists they are today.
The public schools were relatively effective and funding access was related to pre-prop. 13 tax dollars. (And it was LA CITY Schools, not the huge "Unified" district of today.)
The city population was probably about 1/2 of what it is now- density was the exception. it was before city official made high-density housing a goal on their way to infrastructure overload as some obligatory mission to accommodate each body wishing to live within the city limits.
I believed that the statement that the mayor made a few months back was that "L.A.'s the safest it's been since the 1950's," which is even more absurd than comparing it to 1967, when the main threat of a violent death for American males was that posed by the NVA, Vietcong and the Communist Chinese.
I agree with the idea of placing the blame for the descent of the city to its current state of disaster on Villaraigosa, but all the hypberbole on "Mexicans" to blame is counter-productive to the cause and besides that, it shows ignorance in the simplistic description of the problems.
I am a Latino and see that El Salvadorans in large numbers came to the U.S. as refugees from their civil war, some here legally and some not. Other Latin American countries are represented in large numbers.
In the 70's, Latinos of non-Mexican ethnicity was a bit unique here. Not anymore. So remember that many people ARE legally here. But they may be criminals in other ways, but lumping everyone together is a continuing shortcut to making weak arguments and becoming one of many showing racism as a substitute for reason.
And this doesn't mean that many Latino politicians are themselves NOT racists. If they think they aren't, they maybe they should see a few replays of those council meetings like the car washers day, the fast food business ban in South L.A., and on and on. They can say they are whatever they want to say about who is racist, but THEY are the ones making the statements and pitching the "we are victimized" view of everything that others call "the law", and using that as a guidepost to their actions.
All the council people are complicit in this and keeping their jobs and winning the next election is ALL that matters to them- ALL THE TIME AND WITH EVERY BREATH THEY TAKE.
In CD-14
Just another opinion in L.A.
.
Hey remember that unknown police agency that this website bashes time and time again? General Services Police is tasked with reducing crime in the parks. Last week Villaconquista said in the LA Times that crime in our parks is at a all time low.
Coincidence? I think not. . .
7:54 p.m.
Thank you for the excellent comments and for refreshing my memory.
You are a wonderful asset to this city and to CD 14. Have you thought of running for office? I would vote for you in a heartbeat!
The obvious change came when Villaraigosa became Mayor. Look at what happened in 2005, 2006, and 2007. Instead of 1-3% the discrepancy jumped up to 6-7%.
In fact, in 2004, the year before Tony gets elected, according to your chart, there was no population increase from the year before. That makes no sense .
if you want to reduce illegal population and crime sign the petition to put Jamiels Law on the ballot and if you want to eliminate land planning problems look into City of Sierra Madre's Measure V(5) also checkout the LA BREA COALIATION site and lookup SB1818 passed by the state assembly without voter approval. join the change the law movement and also get ready to recall our council.
THERE'S ONE PERSON WHO COULD CLEAN UP CITY HALL! LET'S HERE IT. "LAURA CHICK FOR MAYOR"!!! SHE KNOWS WHERE THE BODIES ARE BURIED AND WILL SHARE IT WITH US.
Somebody needs!!! to look into how crimes are being classified @ the divisional level inside LAPD. the LAPD watch commanders have a funny way of looking @ things these days. Allegedly officers are having to change their report titles to lower level crimes before their supervisor will sign off. or they'll suggest you change it, have you look @ it another way I.E. do it or you'll be on the up and coming shit list. hope this helps
Walter Moore is the only intelligent, qualified and in-tune candidate for Mayor of Los Angeles. From grass roots beginnigs, his campaign against "Photo-OP Villaraigossa," has raised enough money to qualify him for matching funds, and although he doesn't have the Million$ Villaraigossa has accepted from unions and City Hall Cronies, he is able and ready to take him on. But he needs you to sign the petition to get him on the ballot before Dec 4th.
MEET HIM TOMORROW, Sat, November 22 at his Campaign Headquarters between 10:00 am and 4:00 pm to sign the petition to get him on the ballot. Location: 6535 Wilshire Bl, #204, LA, 90048 (red brick building east of Wilshire and La Cienega). Park on the street so you won't get towed. Save our City!
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