2014 Predictions

After a two-year hiatus, I'm back with your annual predictions post. You should be warned, I have a horrible track record here, so take each prognostication with a grain of salt. Here we go...

Mayor Eric Garcetti's Chief of Staff, Ana Guerrero, will continue to earn electability chops in Jose Huizar's Council District, much to the chagrin of the incumbent and his supporters. Following her appearance in the Boyle Heights Christmas Parade - which included distributions from an 18 wheeler filled with toys and goodies - Guerrero will stage a special production of Ana Lloyd Weber's "Evita" where she will give a stunning performance of "Don't Cry for Me CD Catorce," at the bandstand at Olvera Street, followed up by Target gift cards raining from the sky.

Much to the chagrin of Blogger Scott Johnson and the community around the Arroyo Seco, the former site of the Southwest Musuem will be rededicated as "Villaraigosa University," with a special degree program in broadcast journalism taught by the ex-Mayor.

Following a special election in the summer of 2014, LA Fire Commissioner and former teacher Jimmie Woods-Gray will pull out a surprise win in the race to replace the late Marguerite LaMotte. Woods-Gray's victory, will deal a severe blow to LA's charter school movement.

Blogger/Writer Joseph Mailander will sign a deal for the movie version of his non-fiction book "Days Change at Night: LA's Decade of Decline." Esai Morales will be signed to play Mayor Villaraigosa and the film will feature a cameo by Randy Quaid as blogger Scott "Red Spot" Johnson.

The storied Sunland-Tujunga Neighborhood Council, which spent it's salad days with wins such as blocking a controversial Home Depot store, but in recent years has found itself the subject of questions on finances and it's policies on the homeless issue, will find it's incumbent members facing an electoral challenge in the spring from a coalition assembled by controversial local newspaper publisher David "Doc" DeMulle. The uprising will fail when all realize that Joseph Mailander was right when he said that the community is "18 people arguing with 17 people over 14 microphones and 60,000 that don't care." (Turns out the finals of Dancing With the Stars featuring Chaz Bono and Kim Kardashian is on TV the same night as the elections.)

Former City Controller and failed Mayoral candidate Wendy Greuel will jump into the race to succeed termed out LA County Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky. Once again Greuel will use "Political Consultant/Private Citizen" John Shallman to helm her campaign and once again will lose, this time to former State Senator Sheila James Kuehl, "The Child Start Formerly Referred to as Zelda."

California Republican candidates for the State Assembly will pick up some unexpected wins in various races around the state, it won't be enough to assume control of the lower chamber, but it will take away the Democrats current veto-proof majority, leading to several deals between Republican legislators and Governor Jerry Brown, who will be by the way, re-elected handily.

Former radio talk show host and Mayoral candidate and current President of the Board of Public Works, Kevin James, will announce he is leaving the Republican party and register as "Decline to State." James will then announce his candidacy for the Council District 4 seat being vacated by Tom LaBonge.

County Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas will announce that he has brokered a deal for an existing NFL football team to move to the LA Coliseum with the 2017-18 season, but the deal will fall apart at the last minute. An expansion team for Los Angeles will eventually be located in a yet to be built stadium outside the city limits.

And finally, on the steps of the State Capitol, just after Thanksgiving, Governor Jerry Brown will announce his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for President in 2016.

Governor James?

Let the post-election armchair quarterbacking begin...

In the aftermath of the LA Mayor's election where former Federal prosecutor and radio broadcaster Kevin James presented a very respectable third place showing, the talk of what next has already begun.

The California GOP party is in shambles. Just last weekend the state party elected Republican stalwart and former legislator Jim Brulte as it's chairman. The party has fewer members than needed to block Democratic supermarjority votes in the Legislature, no statewide elected officials and it's highest ranking elected officials is Board of Equalization member Michelle Steele and, perhaps, LA City Council member Dennis Zine (is he still a Republican?)

At present, the only announced candidate for Governor is Hesperia Assemblyman Tim Donnelly (who?). There is talk of former Lieutenant Governor Abel Maldonado running as well as talk radio fans pushing Michael Reagan, the son of the former Governor and President, to run.

This morning on his talkradio program on AM 870 The Answer, Ben Shapiro tossed out the idea of James seeking the Republican nomination for California Governor.

That's not a bad idea for a Republican party struggling to maintain relevance. Shapiro noted the dearth of prominent candidates for the party to challenge Governor Jerry Brown and Kevin's pragmatic, moderate version of Republicanism might just be the ticket. It may not hurt, too, that James is openly gay and for marriage equity which removes at least one attack point for the Democrat.

Now, Kevin's sexuality, may very well be a liability for him in a GOP primary where a significant chunk of Evangelical Christians still play. Yet, many of us as Evangelical Christians might need to remember we're picking a Governor not a pastor So sexuality may not be a factor here.

Hard core Republicans like my buddy Phil Jennerjahn, who had a significant issue with James' homosexuality, might find yet another moderate Republican candidate an anathema. Remember Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina, Mitt Romney? That's a good point and much can be said that perhaps the Republicans need to nominate a firebrand conservative in order to motivate the base and draw non-voting conservatives to the polls. However, James is no Whitman, Fiorina or Romney. Full of charm and articulate, James is a policy wonk on steroids combined with a Southern "aw-shucks" charm reminiscent of another politician who struggled initially with getting elected - but later landed the White House - Bill Clinton.

In addition to all this, there are a few hurdles for James to overcome. While he quickly went from being considered a gadfly by the mainstream press to a serious candidate, many have privately questioned the James campaign braintrust, in particular it's "get out the vote" capability. Though registered Republicans are a minority in Los Angeles, in a race against three well-known Democrats splitting the vote, James could have sailed into the runoff if Republicans and conservatives showed up in sufficient numbers. They did not. In a general election with equally daunting demographics, James will have to have an incredibly fired up base and peel off conservative Democrats to ensure victory. Murmurs around town that the local GOP leadership did little more than provide lip service to James and did not put their apparatus into place to turn out the vote will need to be addressed. While some speculate that perhaps there was a "pink-Bradley" effect at play with regard to GOP uneasiness about James' homosexuality, I believe it's larger than that, that a current moribund GOP has perhaps learned to live with being a minority party and is comfortable with things as they are. Plus, even though James ran a respectable campaign for Mayor, the fact remains he lost. That will be a question as to why he deserves a shot at a higher office.

If James can assembly a technically proficient campaign team and fire up his base, he has an excellent shot. If anything, watching him debate Jerry Brown will be a treat. To be sure, Brown, even at 74, is a far more adroit debater than Wendy Greuel, Eric Garcetti and Jan Perry could ever hope to be. James will have to work hard to equal his performance in the Mayor debates with the more spry Brown. Still, it will be a lot of fun if this race develops.  Stay tuned.

Perez Re-Elected Speaker; Greece by the Pacific Here We Come

Give me money!

Ultra-leftist California State Assembly Speaker, John Perez, has been re-elected to his post. Following the gaining of super-majorities (due to shady re-districting and the top two primary) in the Assembly and Senate, Perez and his Democrats are free to tax and spend and take California to a Mediterranean style cliff.

With a veto-proof majority by tax dollar hungry, union controlled Democrats in charge of the Legislature, not even Governor Jerry Brown can save the state.

Jerry Brown Stumps Hard for Carmen the Clown

Old Buddies

Why anyone would vote for Carmen Trutanich boggles the mind but why any Republican would vote for this shady former tuna packer completely erases the sane mind.

Republicans need to support Allan Jackson - rational minded independents, Democrats, Libertarians, etc. should also back Allan. He's received support ranging from moi to Joseph Mailander to Walter Moore to Ron Kaye (who gave a two-way nod to both Jackson and fellow Deputy DA, Jackie Lacey). Not often do those guys agree.

"Los Angeles County voters need only remember three letters when they cast their ballot for district attorney on June 5: ABC. Anybody But Carmen." - LA Daily News 

Carmen's biggest supporters are Jerry Brown, Antonio Villaraigosa and Phil Jennerjahn.

Hollywood activist John Walsh reports today that he has received robocalls from Jerry Brown on behalf of Trutanich.

Why even Democrats would vote for Carmen when there are perfectly capable progressive choices such as Jackie Lacey or Bobby Grace confuses me as well.

Remember - like the Daily News says "Anybody But Carmen."

Friday Free for All: That's SO Jerry Edition

Antonio Villaraigosa came to Sacramento this week to call for the nuking of Proposition 13. Wednesday, the Mayor was dissed by Governor Brown who says he's not interested in making any changes to the holy grail of California politics.  "I will focus my attention on ensuring financial stability and making the state more efficient,"  Brown told the Associated Press.

Last year the City Clowncil voted to boycott doing business with any company based in Arizona in protest of the Grand Canyon state's successful immigration reform law. Since then, the City has failed to avoid to do business with Arizona companies.  The latest opportunity to give an economic whammy to our neighboring state exists in the form of a pending $90 million contract with Arizona based Honeywell, to upgrade computer systems at LA's sewage treatment plants. The computers are needed to replace out of date monitoring systems and help alleviate the odds of an ecological disaster. Councilman Ed Reyes plans to vote no on the contract and a losing bidder is trying to peg a second chance to the boycott being complied with.

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Los Angeles Politics Hotsheet for Monday

Businesses are leaving the state in droves.  So are people. Yet California's politicians are spending more than ever and encouraging builders to keep building for people who aren't here.  Tom LaBonge played with a shovel  and kicked off construction of yet another housing project.  The question remains not who is going to pay for this but why aren't you people saying anything about what these pols are doing to our state?

Want another way to boot more commerce out of the state? Enact a tax on online purchases.  It's even easier for a virtual business to leave the state than brick and mortar.


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Los Angeles Politics Hotsheet for Tuesday

The Democrats' Worst Nightmare

A beautiful thing is happening in Los Angeles, that is, every weekend tens of thousands of unpaid volunteers give of their time (and sometimes their money) to work to support and assist many City departments such as the library, parks, Police, etc.  Still, the union hacks have an issue with it.

The battle continues between the Hollywood Farmers' Market and a nearby film school which, even though it is closed on Sundays when the market operates, says it needs access to it's parking lot and the market blocks it. Sounds more like the neighborhood has gone upscale since the days of the market first opening in the early 90s and the yups aren't so thrilled with the pilgrimage of hippy dips seeking organic Belgian endive.

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Los Angeles Politics Hotsheet for Tuesday

Y

Round 8 of Ali-Foreman, the legendary "Rumble in the Jungle" in Zaire 1974. The younger and more powerful George Foreman was the aggressor throughout the first seven rounds while the older yet highly conditioned Muhammad Ali played rope-a-dope. Then, with Foreman punched out, Ali struck in the 8th round.


William Bradley , in an engaging piece at Huffpo, equates the Jerry Brown victory over Meg Whitman to the Ali-Foreman 1974 "Rumble in the Jungle" match in Zaire;

"...the dust is still settling on Brown's resounding landslide victory -- 54% to 41%, a margin of more than 1.2 million votes over billionaire Meg Whitman -- absolutely shattering the biggest spending non-presidential campaign in American history. In the process, Brown broke the record for the most votes ever received by a gubernatorial candidate, leading a Democratic sweep for the statewide ticket.
...Which is not surprising, since virtually all the state and national press early on anointed Whitman as an unstoppable high-tech juggernaut of a campaign run by the best consultants in the business. Up against poor old Jerry Brown and his ragtag little band. When in reality, it (Brown vs Whitman) was Ali-Foreman '74 all along, with what I called Brown's Zen rope-a-dope approach unfolding as anticipated."  

Well played Jerry, well played.

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Notes on the November, 2010 Elections Scorecard

"Governor Moonbeam, Part Two"

** We start our Notes on the November, 2010 Elections Scorecard, with a moment of reflection in tribute to the late Los Angeles Times and Herald Examiner Sports Writer Allan "Mud" Malamud. His "Notes on the Scorecard" was a must read for sports fans for years in Los Angeles. Maybe Mud can comment from the "Great Redwood Bar in the Sky" on yesterdays proceedings.

Winners and losers in yesterday' elections.

Winners:

Congress in Washington.

Part Two of Governor Moonbeam in Sacramento.

Doonesbury Cartoons.

Union Pension Funds.

The bottom line of those who profited off Meg Whitman's $150,000,000+ campaign expenditure.

California's Labor Unions

California Democratic Party.

Kamala Harris.

Criminal Rights.

Trial Lawyers.

The late State Senator Jenny Orapeza.

U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer.

Twenty-year old Republican Assembly Candidate Alvaro Day in the 44rd Assembly District, who gain by losing against Anthony Portatino.

43rd Assembly District Police State.

The junk science of Global Warming in California.

California's Conservatives who watch the moderates crash and burn yesterday.

All the Nickys in California.

The "Female Antonio" in Orange County, Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez.

** BIG WINNER, Prop 20 that kills off Gerrymandering. Note to Congressman Howard Berman the Latinos are coming!! The Latinos are coming back to your district!!

Veteran Political Consultant Michael Trujillo's chances of working for Hillary again in 2012.

Losers:

Female Billionaires who change their political stances to suit the electorate.

Not Governor in 2010 or U.S. Senator in 2013 Mayor Antonio Villar.

Californian's Pocket Books in the near future..

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

District Attorney Steve Cooley.

Anyone under or soon to be under investigation by the District Attorney.

Fiscal sanity in Sacramento.

Public employees in California when the fiscal well runs dry.

Pot Heads and their Cartel allies.

The Death Penalty in California.

Victims Rights in the California Attorney General Office.

California State Parks.

Freedom of the Press in a certain Assembly District.

District Attorney Carmen Trutanich, not that would be a bad thing in the future.

Carly.

California's Fiscal Future.

Obama.

** BIG LOSER, Berman-Waxman Machine's Prop. 27 that would protected the practice of Gerrymandering.

From the LA Weekly: "The Soft Revolution Ends Gerrymandering"

Your thoughts...............

Scott Johnson in CD 14

Jerry Brown: Still Socialist After All These Years

Some Democrats get unfairly tagged with the Socialist label; though Barack Obama has put the gas on heading the once grand Democrat Party towards state sponsored capitalism.  That being said there is no doubt where Jerry stands on his Democratic Socialists of America inspired economic plan for California.  Brown said the following in 1995:

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Los Angeles Politics Hotsheet for Monday

Senator Barbara Boxer has sought to hit hard in defining a negative image for her opponent Carly Fiorina.  However those who attend her rallies and hear Fiorina speak in person find a different person than what Boxer, one who is warm and has ideas for California.  The GOP challenger will have to overcome Boxer's commercials; however I predict a stunning repudiation of Boxer buoyed by Meg Whitman's multi-million dollar ground war will lead Fiorina to a three point victory over Boxer.  So long Babs.

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Los Angeles Politics Hotsheet for Friday

The LA Weeky's Patrick Range McDonald hits it AGAIN with a cool Jack-O-Lantern full of the Mayor's hype over the Subway to the Sea. The MTA board passed what Stupidvisor Don Knabe called a "historic" vote to bring the Purple (FKA Metro Red Line Wilshire Extension) Line somewhere near Santa Monica.  McDonald enumerates the Mayor's fantasies about the line unlike all the rest of the press release journos out there noting everything from the canard that the Subway will end traffic as we know it, even though studies say less than one percent of suburban Westside motorists will get out of their four wheeled monsters and board the choo choo.

Will Jerry Brown, if elected Governor, raise taxes? Yes if what his former Chief of Staff and former Governor Gray Davis says is true.

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Governor Lowbeam: Brown Will Have to Raise Taxes Next Year

Shut up Gray!

Jerry Brown mentioned the other day his campaign staff has put a muzzle on him to prevent the former Governor from gaffing or saying anything else stupid in the final days of the campaign.

The Brown campaign may want to consider the same thing when it comes to Brown's former roommate and Chief of Staff, more commonly known as ex-Governor Lowbeam, Gray Davis, the guy we booted for some reason I can't remember so we could have an inaction hero as Governor.

Though Brown has claimed there would be no tax increases during his term Davis is saying that sometime next year California's new Governor may be forced to put several tax increases on the ballot during a special election.



"The next governor will have to have a special election given the additional revenue shortfall we'll face because of the temporary tax increases expiring,"  Davis told The Fresno Bee.



Brown's Republican opponent Meg Whitman responded "I saw today that former Governor Gray Davis says that if Jerry Brown is elected, we will have a special election in the spring to ask voters for even higher taxes. Talk about March Madness! More taxes in a recession. And Gray Davis ought to know; he was Jerry Brown's right hand man for years. Voters, you are warned. Jerry Brown will bring more spending, more taxes and more lost jobs to California."

Despite the fact that Davis says he is on-board supporting his former boss he says that he and Brown have not discussed the matter.

Jerry Brown: 'I'm on Message Discipline, They Told Me Not to Say Anything...

Whitman Endorses Brown's Record

-And, in a new Fox News Poll, Brown extends his lead over Whitman, Boxer holds steady.

Brown Pulling Away in Latest Poll

A new SurveyUSA poll has it Brown 47% to Whitman's 40%.  An Oct 15th Rasmussen poll had Brown with a 6 point advantage. The SurveyUSA poll also shows Sen Boxer with a slight lead over Carly Fiorina but essentially a dead heat.

Sunday Re-Education Camp

 Did the Koch Brothers create the astroturf Tea Party?

-Film director James Cameron of "Titanic" and "Avatar" fame pledges $1 million to fight the Koch Bros/Valero Oil backed Prop 23.  Support for Prop 23 is in a freefall with a recent Field Poll showing 45% opposition to the ill conceived measure with only 34% support. Last week, the "Yes On 23" campaign went dark, with no television ads statewide as financial resources continue to dry up.

-Jerry Brown picks up yet another endorsement. This one from The Daily News;

"The next governor of California will inherit a state mired in debt, with a budget already billions of dollars in the red, public infrastructure literally crumbling, a poisonous business climate, schools the shame of the nation and a populace tired of the finger-pointing and lack of leadership from Sacramento. 

That's why Californians must use cold calculation and not gut feeling when they vote for the state's top leader in the Nov. 2 election. The foremost criteria must be which of the top two candidates can work within the dysfunction of Sacramento to set the state back on the path of solvency and growth - and do so quickly. Under that criteria, the only choice is Jerry Brown."-Daily News

-With just a bit over two weeks until election day, the pace of the name-calling gets fast and furious; Senator John McCain describes Barbara Boxer as "bitterly partisan and anti-defense". Meanwhile, Megan McCain calls Christine O'Donnell "A Nutjob".

-Senate hopeful Carly Fiorina shows off her empty suit on Fox News Sunday.

-Gov Jan Brewer of Arizona just can't get a break. Last week, she lost an effort to halt lawsuits filed by civil rights groups challenging the constitutionality of SB1070.

Senior Citizen Hippies for Meg

From my formerly liberal, 1960s, Black Panther, Brown Beret, Peace and Freedom Mom who got her head stomped by LAPD in 1967 protesting LBJ and the war in Century City:

"Just can't believe it took me so long to see thru the Democratic deceit and fraud!!! Oh my."

She marked her absentee ballot today for Meg Whitman.

Brown Lead Widens after Whoregate

In the first major poll after the much publicized incident of a Brown staffer referring to Meg Whitman as a whore, Jerry Brown  gains a point from a pollster that normally skews Republican! Rasmussen now has Brown easing away with a 50-44 lead over Meg Whitman.

California NOW Endorses Jerry Brown

For Immediate Release:
OAKLAND - In recognition of his consistent support for women's equality and reproductive freedom, the PAC for the National Organization for Women's California chapter today announced its strong support for Jerry Brown for Governor and condemned Republican candidate Meg Whitman's treatment of women in the workplace and her failure to support a woman's right to choose.
"As Governor, Mayor, and Attorney General, Jerry Brown has promoted and defended women's rights," said California NOW President Patty Bellasalma. "Jerry stands for fairness and equality and never ever backs down. We have every confidence that he will do the same as California's next Governor."
"While much of Meg Whitman's record is still unknown, what we do know is cause for alarm," added President Bellasalma. "According to numerous news accounts, Meg Whitman committed an act of workplace violence against one of her female employees at eBay; and the allegations that she failed to pay Nicandra Diaz Santillan, a member of her household staff, for some of the time she worked and threatened to replace her when she became pregnant are deeply concerning. The abuse of employees, whether in the workplace or in the home, is not acceptable."
"Meg Whitman spent millions of dollars attacking a woman's right to choose during this campaign. Jerry Brown is the only candidate for Governor who we trust to protect a woman's right to choose," added Bellasalma.
"For California women, actions speak louder than words. We know Jerry Brown's record, and we know Meg Whitman's record. The choice is clear. We strongly urge California women to vote for Jerry Brown for Governor," she continued.
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