CD 2 Race : The Breakdown
We are only a month away from a critical election here in Los Angeles that few people are paying attention to. The special election to replace new City Controller Wendy Gruel in her former position on the Los Angeles City Council has attracted carpetbagging politicians like flies. Council District 2 voters...perhaps a very small number of them... will decide who will hold this seat for the next two...and maybe even 10 or more years...what with the way incumbents here in Los Angeles are rarely ever challenged or threatened by electoral defeat.
There are 10 candidates for CD 2 voters to choose from.
The candidates, as listed in ballot order, with ballot designations....
(Interesting how Tamar doesn't list the LAUSD position she was elected to - and is subsequently abandoning - for her attempt at the City Council position.)
Tamar seems to be doing reasonably well in this campaign, assuming she can withstand the heat from her latest mailing controversy. She has raised the third highest amount of money and has received some endorsements from some important political figures. Tamar is repeatedly referred to as one of the "Big 3" by forum and debate moderators. Once viewed as a Villaraigosa puppet, who relied on his fundraising and support to be elected to her LAUSD position, it is now believed by many that she has had a falling out with the Mayor and that the Mayor is actually working against her in this election by running Chris Essel as his preferred candidate.
Tamar appears to be attracting supporters who are turned off by Paul Krekorian and Chris Essel. This has drawn the attention of some of the other candidates in the crowded field, and as such, Tamar has been been very harshly criticized by other candidates. To her credit, she seems to be quite tough...standing up to these blistering attacks without backing down.
THE LINE: Tamar is likely to finish in the top three, but it is unclear if she has enough support to defeat Krekorian or some of the other candidates -- who have closer ties to the community, and are seen in a far more favorable light than Galatzan, who is trying to leave a job she was elected by the voters to complete. She is also somewhat tainted by her former relationship with Villaraigosa, who is wildly unpopular right now.
I have to admit to being a little biased towards Joe Essavi, who I consider a friend. He is a good Republican...and as far as I am concerned, he is the only Conservative in this election. As such, he is one of the few who could really make a difference. The voters in CD 2 could really use a good guy like Joe Essavi. He is the only candidate who has promised to protect Proposition 13.
THE LINE : Joe has a certain amount of name recognition from having run for office in other election cycles. He has a certain crowd of supporters from the Neighborhood Council community and I have no doubt he will collect thousands of votes. However, I'm not sure if it will be enough to get him into the runoff election. He needs to raise and spend more money to break out of the pack of candidates in the middle.
Christine Essel is the former Paramount Pictures movie executive who has probably been the subject of the most scathing and incendiary attacks of all the candidates. There are several reasons for this. The most important one is that Chris Essel does not live in CD 2 and everyone knows that. It is not even the slightest of secrets ....especially not to Mayor Sam readers. However, we live in a free country, and there are no laws against Chris Essel claiming to live in some ratty little apartment in the Valley rather than her multi-million dollar mansion in Sunset/Doheny Estates. (Who, in their right mind, wouldn't trade those digs?)
One of the other odd curiosities about Essels campaign remains a puzzling enigma. As a multi-millionaire movie executive --doesn't she have anything better to do with her time than blow a quarter million dollars running for City Council?
Essel has offended many community activists with her aggressive move into CD 2 -- along with the fact that her obvious financial clout is coming from donors who are uninvolved parties to CD 2. Essel has a big lead financially and may be the only candidate who can afford to run TV commercials. But money can't buy love and Esssel may find this out the hard way with an election defeat in September.
THE LINE: Essel seems to have offended too many people with her campaign and public opinion seems to be turning against her. She will not win this election. If she somehow earns a runoff with Krekorian, then Paul will win it going away.
McCue is supported by the Green Party of Los Angeles County. Not sure how much that will help, as most people do not identify themselves as "Greens". However, McCue appears to be well-connected through the Studio City Neighborhood Council. If he can get those members out supporting him, he could be a factor.
THE LINE: McCue is not well known enough in other parts of CD 2 to have a realistic chance of winning this election. The fact that he won't accept corporate donations certainly won't help him, either.
I'm not sure if the phrase "Community Organizer" is such a good idea in the political world anymore, but that's just my opinion. Pete Sanchez surprised some of the other candidates at the Valley Village event when he asked the crowd how many people had heard of Pete Sanchez. Nearly everyone raised their hands. There is no doubt that Pete Sanchez has a number of friends and followers in Valley Village. He will get a lot of votes in that area.
THE LINE: Pete Sanchez is not well known enough in other areas of CD 2 to be able to defeat a career politician like Paul Krekorian.
Again, I have to admit to being a little biased towards David. I struck up an unlikely friendship with David as we were both running for Mayor of Los Angeles in March of 2009. Saltsburg has become an unlikely figure in Los Angeles politics, having finished in fourth place in the Mayoral Election in March of 2009. Saltsburg is by far the most colorful and charismatic of all the candidates. Who else could get away with calling themselves "Zuma Dogg" in public forums and not have anyone consider the concept anything out of the ordinary?
He is a tireless Community Advocate who has shed the light on a lot of corruption and "shadiness" (as he likes to put it) at City Hall. Don't underestimate the appeal of "Zuma Dogg". I didn't think he would get over 500 votes for Mayor....he got over 9,000! He has high name recognition from frequently appearing on talk radio stations and being featured in stories in the LA Weekly. And he has been the toughest and most vocal critic, by far, of Essel and Galatzan.
THE LINE : Zuma Dogg will receive thousands of votes in CD 2 , but it will be difficult for him to make a runoff without any campaign budget for mailers and phone calls. Zuma Dogg needs some of his supporters to help him get a 4/4 voter list and a cell phone with unlimited minutes. If he called 100 voters a day...who knows? Councilman Zuma Dogg could be seated next to his buddy, Councilman Zine.
Frank Sheftel is a businessman with long-term ties to CD 2. His website says that he went to elementary school, High School and College all in CD 2. Sheftel owns the Candy Factory on Magnolia Boulevard. I know Frank because he is being managed by David Hernandez, and I consider both of them to be friends of mine.
There are many things to like about Frank as a candidate. He has deep roots in the community. As a businessman, he understands the damage that bad government can do to businesses and to an economy.
Frank is very personable and has been well prepared out on the campaign trail. At one of the forums, he really slammed Paul Krekorian and Tamar Galatzan for walking away from their elected jobs just to seek another elected position. Frank has yard signs and has been actively campaigning at multiple events. Frank also has a team of organized supporters that could possibly get him up near the top in vote totals in September.
THE LINE : Frank Sheftel could be a factor in this race. His team is quite loyal to him and have faith in his campaign. He is a down-to-earth good guy. You don't get many people like him in politics.
(Photo caption: Krekorian announcement ignites crowds in L.A.)
I want to be clear about one thing. I think Paul Krekorian is the worst possible candidate for the City Council seat. Why? Because he's just like all the others downtown. He is a carpetbagging, rubber-stamping, budget-destroying , State-bankrupting, freedom-hating liberal. Paul Krekorian is not the answer for CD 2. However, many voters in Los Angeles are Democrats, and they prefer leadership of this nature.
His list of endorsers reads somewhat like a list of "The Usual Suspects". Paul Koretz, Brad Sherman, Loretta Sanchez, Karen Bass, Kevin De Leon, and the SEIU all feel that Los Angeles is not being destroyed quickly enough, and that the help of Paul Krekorian is needed. Krekorian is also detestable because he started shopping for low-rent apartments in CD 2 minutes after Wendy Gruel won her election as City Controller. The Higby-endorsed Burbank Democrat was thinking three moves ahead of everyone else. Chris Essel still doesn't know her new address, and on her best day, could never even dream of outfoxing a professional politician like Krekorian.
Krekorian will teach L.A. residents his Sacramento motto... "No tax is too high, No fee is too high.."
THE LINE : Because Krekorian is a career politician who understands how to win elections, he is best positioned to win this race. Because of his name recognition, he should get 35-50% of the vote in the primary. This is horrible news for Los Angeles, but hey...this City re-elected Antonio Villaraigosa. Competence in an elected official is clearly not a job requirement here.
Mary Benson is the one true wild card in this race. Her results will be difficult to predict. She is not only well known, but practically beloved by people who have worked with her in different groups and organizations.
The "Big 3" probably worry about her quite a bit because she is honest, open, and has a lot of integrity. She is seen as "the friendly neighbor" by many in CD 2.
THE LINE: Mary Benson could be a factor in this race if she makes a real effort. But the City Ethics website shows she has raised and spent less than $1,000 in her campaign so far. Tough to beat professional politicians with that little. However, she could be the David-vs.-Goliath type of story that people like.
Augusto Bisani is originally from Italy and still has a little bit of an accent when speaking in English. He is a long-term business owner in the Valley. He seems like a nice guy and has been refreshingly honest and unguarded at the debates and forums. However, I think maybe Mr. Bisani hasn't fully thought out his run for office. Sometimes he admits to not knowing anything about some of the important subjects discussed at the forums.
THE LINE: Augusto Bisani has little chance in this election. He is not well known. His performances at the forums have not tended to increase his support.
Posted by Phil Jennerjahn @ 8/24/2009 01:36:00 AM
43 Comments:
Tamar
Boo. Hiss. Yuk. Bad news for CD 2.
Essavi
Good thing this guy running for city council believes they have something to do with Prop 13, a statewide prop.
Essel
People spend millions to win council seats. This woman has no job. What else do multi-millionaire former movie execs do when they get bored? Become the mouthpiece for the developers and the Chamber of Commerce people she has befriended over the years who have probably convinced her to run so they could tell her how to vote on planning issues. Everything comes down to planning, her biggest downfall.
McCue
I think more people are Green than you would care to believe because you're a raging Republican. Oh well, it's a non-partisan race anyway and being green is pretty hip. Neighborhood Council support is great, just not enough to win a city seat. Not just yet. In due time...
Zuma Dogg
He is a tireless community advocate and that is the exact kind of person these city council seats were set up to be won by. It was the point of having community representatives in the first place. He should be the winner.
Sanchez
Of course you don't like community organizers or even the term. Too Obama for you?
Again, one needs more than a few followers to win a seat that affects city wide votes, preferably ones with money.
Benson
She is beloved. Even by me. I would love for her to win however, not only is she not charismatic enough, she just hasn't raised any money. If she doesn't win, she should definitely be hired by the person who does.
Krekorian
He's a good guy. If any of the big 3 have to win, it should be him.
Bisani
Who? What possessed him to try this? He doesn't know the issues at all. I would bet he gets between 70 and 100 votes if there were a marginally large turnout.
In the less than three years I have been on the board, we're starting to see the Valley schools turn the corner. There is much, much more to do, but we're making progress." - Tamar Galatzan (from LAUSD flier sent out this week.)
What a leader! She says "there is much, much more to do." Like quit!
And good luck trying to convince people that Valley schools have turned the corner just because you say so in your own mailer.
"Just one example: I led the effort to ensure that every Valley school now has up to date computers." (I would settle for finding the $400 million worth of computers the school board lost.)
And remember, if there is still much, much more to do, the first thing you should do is walk away from your promise to voters.
Krekorian sleazian what is the difference? Just another failed Sacramento political who wants a job at the public trough to help LA go further down the drain. I am suprised he is not actively endorsed by our beloved mayor.
Thankfully you do not try and analyze elections for a living.
If you're wondering why Essel would give up her well paying executive job to run for City Council, what about wanting the opportunity to serve the city? Why did Richard Riordan run for mayor? It wasn't for money.
Referring to which parties people belong to is not relevant. They run on the ballot without party affiliation. If the lone Republican thought it was important, he'd list his party in his 3-word identification.
The facts are that the issues that are important are not Republican, Democratic, of Green Party issues. Besides these candidates don't have the money to tell the voters which party they belong to even if the voters cared.
And Benson can't be part of a David and Goliath story because she doesn't have the people or the money with which to tell the story.
At this point, what are the number of different CD2 voters who have attended even one forum?
So who is the best person to throw our weight behind as 'spoiler'? Is it Zuma or Frank? Mary? Seriously, who should be all be supporting?
I would prefer a business owner. How lucky CD2 is to have most of their candidates a business owners.
How come you haven't mentioned that Zuma Dogg lost his home again this weekend?
I am not sure but I think it's due to the fact that he promised to endorse the first candidate who would give him a place to live.
He got that place to live, didn't endorse anyone, and in fact became more obnoxious, and lost the place to live.
It's curious that you haven't mentioned this. You've spent plenty of time on Essel's suspect new residence in CD2, but not the suspicious gain and loss of an apartment for Zuma Dogg.
Also, I think you are NUTS if you think Zuma Dogg isn't looked at as an oddball, "Who else could get away with calling themselves "Zuma Dogg" in public forums and not have anyone consider the concept anything out of the ordinary?"
You're crazy. But that's the one thing that isn't a surprise to anyone. And he doesn't consider himself a friend of yours any time you've written something critical of him. I recall him writing on one of your own posts a comment to the effect of "Shut up Phil, you don't speak for me."
Phil, Zooma wrote on his blog a week ago that the offices of Local 300 wss raided by the feds, but it turned out not to be true.
If any of the other candidates did this, you'd have written about it. Why didn't you mention this in your write up of zooma dogg?
You should also have mentioned that he is the primary cause of the new rules of decorum at city hall. Fair as they may be or not, they were created because he and Mike Hunt pushed and pushed and pushed for all of the wrong reasons. This is not what we need in a council man.
Phil's math is hysterical.
That "Zuma just needs to call 100 voters a day" is almost as funny as Phil saying "I need 100 people to gather 2400 signatures each to recall Villaraigosa."
Classic!
Well morons - if you don't vote for Mary because you think she can't win, then she won't get enough votes to win!
Geniuses. There isn't a club for those who vote for the winner. This is exactly the insane attitude that keeps the same morons in power forever.
VOTE FOR THE BEST PERSON!!!!
VOTE FOR MARY!
If you vote Zuma in then you get what you deserve.
Paul Krekorian: Brought to you by the same people who have bankrupted the State. If you liked what he did in Sacramento, wait till you see what he does in L.A.
Krekorian and Tamar - just like Sarah Palin. "Quitters who Twitter"
Chris E$$el. The only thing in this state that's been bought and paid for. She has more IOU's than Calif.
The usual hatred aside, not a bad read of the race.
Brown beating Newsom even in San Francisco:
SF Gate reports two guv polls while you clowns are futzing over who NOT to vote for in CD2
Paul will win because so far he is running the best campaign.
Don't know what Essel is doing with her money because talking to voters is not one of them.
NoHo Mom:
"To throw our weight behind?"
What weight is that? If the grassroots or NCs had weight they would settle on one candidate and mobilize themselves behind that person. They would solicit contributions from outside the district because there is no money inside the district to be had.
But not only is none of that happening, nobody has even tried to make it happen.
The few number of people who are active on this site don't affect elections.
So who's the "our" and what's the "weight"?
I guess "our" is undecided voters. I really am undecided at this point. I went to a candidate forum and liked Frank, Mary, Mike McCue and Zuma. But I'd like to really rally behind someone whom I not only like, but already has momentum and can really make the runoff. Am I the only one?
Mary in the first round and Paul in the second round, that is the scuttle butt up here in ST.
To the "Little 7" candidates: ( and I say that with sarcasm )
A friend of mine who got elected to Congress once told me that elections are always about "Dollars and Doors". If you don't have enough dollars, you better start hitting the doors.
There are 28 days left, or so... until the election.
Go to www.politicaldata.com
Pay for a list of the 4/4 voters in CD 2...that is the people who have voted in 4 out of the last 4 elections. They are who you need to concentrate on. The list will cost money...but maybe some of you can agree to cooperate and pool your money and share the data.
Have a group of your supporters start calling people and asking them to vote for you.
Starting hitting the doors and making personal visits to hand out fliers and shake hands. You might only need to get 3,000 votes or so to make it into a runoff. That is about 110 people a day. 8 hours a day...13 voters an hour. It is not impossible.
A personal visit from a candidate is a very powerful weapon.
One candidate already told me he won't go door to door. Well, guess what...Tamar will! She desperately wants to win and she's already spending time doing it.
Tamar is out there trying to win.
Why aren't you?
Zooma is reposting anonymous comments from MS on his blog, and bills it as though the blog is supporting him, as opposed to the anonymous comments, which are obviously from him.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Bloggers Come Out In Support Spinning PRO-ZUMA DOGG FOR LA CITY COUNCIL in CD 2 (As Tamar Tanks!)
I know what Essel is doing with her money.Lining up Shallman`s pockets.It`s his MO. I started to think that Paul may win this thing outright on Sep 22nd.
The Essel vessel has sunk and Tamara while she was catching up ,she now has to play defense as the result of her LAUSD mailer.
not bad advise, maybe Essel will pick up on your idea.
Its Krekorian in a walk. Over the last week i have been called, mailed and walked by his office.
Nothing but an ugly mailer from Essel.
Chris is a "Hottie"; Tamar is a "Nottie".
Rumor around town is some Sunland-Tujunga "leaders" are attempting to broker an endorsement deal with Tamar which would include a planning post in CD2 for Mary Benson, Tamar's support for "their" candidate for her school board seat and other assorted perks primarily centered around use of North Valley City Hall.
There is huge fear of Essel winning and resignation that Krekorian is in the catbird seat. If Tamar gets in the runoff she can use the carpetbagger and Sacto angle against him. However if its Krekorian and Essel downtown will force the Mayor to go with Chris and that's too scary.
However recent revelations about Tamar kind of screw things up for her.
4:01AM, thanks so much for your comments. I got dignity no matter what the results with comments like that! 8:18am, you're kinda nutty. And I'm in a place now. And whatever reason I was in or out of that place had ABSOLUTELY NOTHING with my sarcastic parody comment that I would trade my endorsement for a room. I THINK EVERYONE WHO SPEAKS WITH ME PERSONALLY AND KNOWS ME KNOWS THAT I WON'T BE ENDORSING ANYONE ELSE IN THIS RACE NO MATTER WHAT IS OFFERED. You are just nutty...I don't even think you are spinning as a political operative, but as an emotionally disturbed or really dumb individual.
And yes, I posted for Phil not to speak for me, or whatever, but Phil isn't a thin-skinned crybaby and we carry on. And I didn't say anything offensive, anyway. I just said don't speak for me. And if he did that again, I would probably post the cranky retort again. But again, it probably won't come up anymore, crybaby.
And NO, I DID NOT SAY that it was raided. I said, "Zuma Dogg heard a rumoAnr that you may be reading that..."
Sorry if you didn't want to read the first sentence of the story.
And I was told the new rules of decorum were because a guy was wearing a KKK hood in chambers. WOW, do you know something different than what the councilmembers told me themselves?
But of course they would want to dump the dogg if they could. But it ain't cause of my voice, but because of the words, loser.
ANYWAY, ENFORCE AWAY! There was already a Grand Jury having a little looksey-loo.
To the person who said, "If you vote Zuma in then you get what you deserve." YES, THAT IS ABSOLUTELY CORRECT! Very good analysis! Hope I can live up to that. Because the people deserve a lot. MUCH MORE!
And finally regarding, Zuma posting anono-comments from this blog and "bills it as though the blog is supporting him.": Don't you see the first sentence that you posted that says, "BLOGGERS come out in support..." I didn't say, "Mayor Sam's blog." Maybe you feel I used the wrong word calling people posting comments here, "Bloggers." That's what I though you called it. I'll go change it to "Blog Readers" or if you have a better choice of term, please email it to: ZumaDogg@Gmail.com and be sure you put, "From crybaby-loser" in the message field so I will know it's from you. Thanks for you insightful comedy on such critical city issues affecting the voter. YOU'RE A CHAMPION! I think your campaign is doing WONDERS out there. I'm feeling a complete deflation in my momentum on the streets each day as a result. PLEASE STOP...PEOPLE ARE STOPPING ME ON THE STREETS MENTIONING THIS STUFF YOU BRING UP TO ME.
Although I would like to see Benson snag a city council planning position, do you really think she can endorse Tamar after the LAUSD piece? I don't think she can go along with that at this point. Maybe one of the other candidates can go on record stating whether they would offer Mary the same spot if elected.
No Ho Mom,
I am supporting Sheftel. Ive followed him as well and think he has the momentum to get in the run off. He was one of 5 candidates at the VICA forum and really did a good job, they reported on it in the Business journal today. And I have a friend who recieved a phone call from him and said he was very responsive to the problems of our district. So Sheftel gets my vote. Encourage others to follow.
THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG STORY TOMMOROW
But Higby you got it all wrong.
The word from Essel's camp is that the story is going to be about how Tamar mailers have been produced by none other than, Paul's consultant Eric Hacopian.
The LAT story is going to be an expose of how Tamar's campaign is being run and orchestrated by Eric from behind the scenes.
Hacopian has figured out long ago that he cant beat Essel one on one, so that is where Tamar's candidacy comes into play.
Tamar's campaign is expendable, she is running for show not to win.
Every one who knows Hacopian, knows that that he is the black opps guy in Los Angeles politics.
But this time, he has outsmarted himself.
Oh shut up Shallman. You're better off explaining how the hell you're going to explain to Chris how you've fucked her and squandered her money. Three weeks to go and she's the joke of the campaign. Even more than Zuma Dogg. Nuch can't save you now!
The bigger story is how Higby is working with insiders on all three campaigns and has done dirtywork for each of them in the past. He's no advocate like Ron Kaye or Zuma Dogg.
That last tidbit at 4:13 sounds like a Shallman trick.
Sounds like a Shallman trick to make it look like the other two candidates are ganging up on Essel
4:13
I believe you are a bit paranoid.
4:13
That is the dumbest thing ever posted on this blog.
If Essel's people are spinning that, then they have been smoking way too much crack.
If 4:13 is right, then Eric Hacopian convinced Tamar to give herself a 25k loan. Impressive. Perhaps we should be supporting Hacopian for CD 2.
I think the real story in this post is that Phil got less votes in the mayoral election then a homeless guy. What a loser.
Essel has the most experience giving her time to the city of LA. Hey job at Paramiunt was all about giving back and making LA and the biz function and then she also gave back through her commission work. The woman has been busy giving back to LA!! For over 30 years! That's more than a boy from Burbank or a failed laUsd
can say, She is going to win!
Chris is the woman for the job. She's got the time and the passion and has pledged to go after
a higher position, like other politians in the race plan do. Candidates like Chris don't come along often!
Chris has a fundraising lead because she has worked in the city for years! People want her to win! Simple, logic.
10:06-09-10
I am impressed, Essel staff are still up and working.
Let's do a fact check on McCue's voracity and integrity in his comments about a rule to backcharge job-hoppers for the cost of special elections.
McCue is speaking out of both ends of his mouth, opting to participate in the very same self-interested, opportunist special election that he takes issue with, castigating his fellow opportunist candidates - excepting himself.
What about the beam in McCue's eye?
The backstory here is that McCue takes all the credit for his causes without giving due credit to the many on many efforts. That's a bad trait to have as a potential representative Of The People.
Do as I say - not as I do?
Pot: Kettle: Black?
So McCue is another job-hopping opportunist. Not content to continue as a volunteer on a non-decision making neighborhood council, McCue is after an upgrade to a 200,000 per annum job with perks, an overblown level of income for a job in a bureaucracy run on, and rife with, corruption and payoff.
A rule that McCue claims he can live with does harm to the democratic process to hold elections and fill vacancies.
What are the rules that McCue can live without?
To all CD 2 Candidates and their supporters:
Each candidate in this article has a hypertext link under their name. Click on their name to go directly to their website.
Mayor Sam can be tough and critical, but always plays fair.
Candidates, if you want your profile up on Mayor Sam.... we need a three paragraph statement, written in the first person by the candidate themselves...telling people who you are and why you want CD 2 to vote for you.
Add a nice color photo with at least 200K of data.
28 days left to post 10 profiles.
Get to work.
Side note here....
Election turned out just the way I handicapped it.
Candidates only needed about 4,500 votes to make the runoff election.
It was an achievable goal.
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