Open Thread for The Weekend
Rather than some obscure bit of trivia or history, today we start our open thread with a simple question: Is it likely that Mayor Villaraigosa could run for Governor of California? In 2006?There's a lot of reasons why he should and a lot of reasons why he shouldn't. Putting that aside, there still remains a strong likelihood even though the Mayor has said he will not pursue the Democratic nomination (never believe when a politician says never).
Though Governor Schwarzenegger was weakened by his losses in the November special election, the Terminator still remains strong. And he has plenty of time to repair the damage.
In the Democratic primary, the declared candidates are Treasurer Phil Angelides and Controller Steve Westly. Both are basically unknown, plain vanilla, weasly looking middle aged, rich white guys from Northern California. Hardly enough to motivate the troops. Dianne Feinstein says she isn't running; Rob "Meathead" Reiner says the same. Rapidly aging 1970s pin-up boy Warren Beatty hasn't decided, but please.
The Democrats need some firepower. Villaraigosa is the biggest Democratic, let alone political name in the state. He fires up Latinos and unions. Old people like him. All the folks you have to turn out for Democrats to win. Plus, he's from the south which helps.
Antonio says he isn't running, but some are already hinting at it. With Democratic officials concerned about a nasty primary battle between two unknows who have to make a name first, they may just turn to Antonio.
Posted by Mayor Sam @ 1/07/2006 02:08:00 PM
24 Comments:
Arnold is looking pretty good after his State of the State. hard to argue with the need for infrastructure improvements.
why would antonio jump into this race and run against arnold when he can wait 4 years and run for an empty seat?
Antonio is an old man . HE would need to run this year.
I suspect he may run and I will probably most likely vote for him and support his run.
Then we can vote huizy in as MAyor.
.
wishful thinking for Tony Villar to run next year. We could get rid of him once and for all. Guaranteed there would be no voter apathy next time!!! Everyone was asleep at the switch for the mayoral race, but they are wide awake now.
We know what Tony Villar is...a scumbag traitor to the United States of America. We will saturate the State with all of AV's racist, Mechista, pro Mexico background. He will not get away with it any longer.
We need to clean out our State and send 'em all back to Mexico. They love Mexico so much...why are they here? Reconquista time?? No way, Jose.
Hey, Tony, PLEASE run for governor!!! PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE!!
If Tony runs and loses, no sweat off his ass. He comes back in four years as the front runner.
If one of the two nimrods running now beat Arnie, its a good eight years for Tony to wait cause doubtful he'd run against a sitting Democratic governor and doubtful in four years the Republicans would have anyone who could take a Dem governor out either.
Of course Tony is going to run. How long was he Speaker - 1 1/2 years. How long was he councilman - 2 years. Parke gets him elected to these positions and pulls him out just before people see the real Tony or just before he gets caught with some staffer in a compromising position. And it will happen. Sooner or later the world will see that this emperor really has no clothes - but Parke will get him into the governor's mansion before reality sets in. He's running - even if he loses parke makes at least $3 million!
I doubt Antonio is going to run this year. The only historical precedent for it is Mayor Bradley Running for Governor shortly after winning a third term in 1981. Bradley was much more 'battle-tested' as Mayor than Antonio has been, it was his third term not his first, and his popularity the result of two great terms and not an electoral honeymoon.
Second, both Democratic gubernatorial candidates endorsed Antonio for Mayor. Angelides and Westely are ambitious dudes, I doubt they would endorse someone they viewed as a threat in the near-term. The dual endorsement may also be a way to keep the Mayor from endorsing in the primary fight.
Expect the Mayor to campaign heavily for the Democratic Nominee but don't expect him to run for governor just yet. If he ran and lost the governership he would be hugely weakened in his attempts at reform and likely jeopardize another term as Mayor.
Antonio will definitely run for a higher office, but it all depends on how this year's gubernatorial race ends up and when either Feinstein or Boxer step down from their Senate seats. He'll need to make a move towards the mid-point of his second term (like most politicians do), and seeing what seat is available will be key to his eventual run for the White House as a Vice Presidential candidate.
If Arnold wins, Antonio will have the opportunity to clear the Democratic table of the current frontrunners (Shelley and Angelides) and come out as the clear choice for democrats in the next election. Phil Angelides has the clear push in this run, so don't expect Antonio to get into this run.
If a dem wins against Ahhhnulhd, that will potentially put Antonio out of the timeline necessary for him to make a clear jump without having a 2-year gap in elected status.
With that scenario, his best option is that Dianne Feinstein (who is the worst Republican under Democratic clothing in recent history) decides to retire in 6 years, clearing up a powerful seat in the US Senate. That can serve as a perfect platform for Antonio to get on for the White House run. His relationships throughout California and Capitol Hill will make him an immediate bearer of the Democratic torch on national issues and on committee positions if the Dems are able to win back the majority in the next run.
I hope that some of this makes sense. What do the rest of you think?
He's not firing up a lot of unions now, except for his hypcoritical stances toward his favored ones.
Every newspaper has hinted that Antonio will run. Only problem is what will he say are his accomplishments as CM and Mayor? Arnold got hit hard in November but that Stae of State address got him points. If Antonio is thinking about it he has to come out NOW.
Nope. Definitely not. Got it confirmed by Ace. Though Gavin Newsom is very seriously looking at it. Ahnold re-elected, then AV in 2010. Then LaBonge, Greuel, Delgadillo, Garcetti, and Parks run for mayor. Just my prediction.
Antonio will run and say his party needs him. Especially is Arnold is looking better and Shelly/Angelides are looking weak. Expect an announcement in a few weeks.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
t looks like the downtown los angeles neighborhood council is getting ready to gerrymander the boundaries this month for before the elections take place this year.
The agenda for Tuesday's DLANC meeting is up at http://dlancwatch.blogspot.com/
You can also go to www.dlanc.com to see the boundaries.
CD 6 has lost a staffer. Does anyone know why sergio ibarra is no longer at the office? just curious.
You guys are really simpletons.
Kevin Shelley is out of politics. The guy who is in the race is Westly, the Controller, Steve Westly. He is worth over $100 Million due to being counsel for EBay. Phil Angelides is a successful developer who have over $12 Million in the bank. Those are serious numbers, and Antonio is not going to start from scratch and catch them at this point.
Antonio loves being Mayor (can't you tell?). He doesn't need to run yet, as Arnold is still favored to win, and Dianne is getting too old, and Barbara Boxer is no spring chicken, herself.
Antonio knows he needs to make a record as Mayor before he goes anywhere, so cool your heels, guys.
Besides, the idiot that said he's too old ought to know that he is still well under 55, and he has 20 more years of viability. That ought to make the Pachecoistas really sleep well at night.
Sorry guys, Antonio is here for the duration; he won, you lost.
Did Sergio leave for school or was he just pushed out by Tony?
not everybody who is anti-villar is pro-pacheco
Didn't Magic Johnson endorse Angelides? He'll help get the black vote.
BTW Antonio's people also said he wouldn't run for mayor.
Daily News...Great story. Names names....
'Stealth' power rampant
'Stealth' lobbyists elude public scrutiny
Dozens of influential people who represent special interests - including union, business and nonprofit leaders -regularly schmooze city officials with little public scrutiny or accountability, according to a Daily News review of records.
Under city ethics laws, they are exempt from the stringent reporting requirements imposed on registered lobbyists - a group defined narrowly as those who earn at least $4,000 a quarter for meeting with city officials to influence legislation. A new law enacted this summer bars any commissioner from lobbying for any compensation, even as little as $1.
Yet calendars for Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and City Council members for the past six months show numerous meetings with individuals representing a variety of city interests who aren't required to register as lobbyists and, in many cases, serve on city commissions.
CD 6 lost a staffer. I heard Tony pushed him out. Too bad. Sergio was one of the only guys that I liked from the Padilla/Cardenas crew.
mayors:
did you read Part I of the LA Times expose on UFW in today's paper? pretty ugly, and three more installments to come.
anyone besides me wondering if this has anything to do with Christine Chavez's run for AD 45 against the Fabian machine? Fabian/Kevin/et al have been trying to get Christine to drop out of the race and this expose seems suspiciously well-timed...
I think the arguments put forth in this post show how politically moronic all you people really are. AV will NOT run. That'll be political suicide. He got away with it from Councilmember to Mayor...but the stakes are much higher for the top post in California. No way people would let him slide as much.
"I will not run for mayor; I will serve my full term as councilmember for the 14th district."
"My staff and I organized 80 (FAKE) NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH ORGANIZATIONS last year alone. That was more than all the other council districts combined."
"I'm like a kid in a candy store, serving as mayor of the city my grandfather emigrated to..."
With all the stammering and stuttering, you could be right. Neither one of them can complete a sentence or a thought not written on cue cards in front of them.
Ask the dirty girls and the press trolls.
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home