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Wednesday, March 09, 2005

Why There is No Recall

recallSince the inception of this website we here at Sister City haven't commented much on Tony Villar's recall. While we have on occasion posted updates, and have watched spirited debates occur on this blog. Mostly MEAT versus the world. We've now seen some hard evidence on Tony Villar's district and their true feelings about their Councilman.

Here are CD 14 results:

Tony Villar - 14,166 = 61.5%
Mayor Poopy - 4,582 = 19.8%
Bob "Peter Griffin" Hertzberg - 1,906 = 8.2%
Ritchi Alarcon - 1,205 = 5.2
Bitter Bernie - 1,167 = 5.0%

Couple of things to note - Tony Villar's vote actual vote total is higher than when he ran for Council 2 years ago, and his actual % is higher than when he ran against Nick La Colectiva Pacheco.

So as the Chief I encourage an energized debate, but as for the points being handed down.

POINT MEAT.

blog away!

36 Comments:

Anonymous GIRTH said:

Lookin' good for Villaraigosa. Via the LA Times exit polling data:

"A city councilman and former Assembly speaker, Villaraigosa gained support among whites, Jews, blacks and Valley voters, while carrying the Latino vote by an overwhelming margin, as he did four years ago. His support grew across the length and breadth of the city. He carried the Westside and Central City neighborhoods by large margins and ran nearly even with Hertzberg in the Valley — and with Parks in South L.A."

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/elections/la-030905mayor_lat,0,3259893.story?coll=la-home-headlines

Gotta love it!

March 09, 2005 1:51 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

How many folks voted for Tony Villar city wide?

March 09, 2005 1:55 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

So after two years as a councilmember representing CD 14, Villaraigosa could only increase his number of votes by 400? Tony polled 13689 against Pacheco and 14166 yesterday. For all the advertising and press, Tony couldn't increase his base as the Eastside "favorite"? Come on, Mayor Sam, the Recall has a great chance to succeed.

March 09, 2005 2:08 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Sacramento said it the best. 50,000 REGISTERED VOTERS IN CD14 DID NOT VOTE. With those kind of numbers the RECALL people could easily get those signatures. He also stated at ADV was bragging via MEAT that he had 81% approval but only got 64% votes. Let's see if ADV touts being the 1st Latino mayor cause then he'll piss off the valley and westsiders.

March 09, 2005 2:12 PM  

Anonymous GIRTH said:

In response to the moron Anon post of 2:12pm that stated:

"Let's see if ADV touts being the 1st Latino mayor cause then he'll piss off the valley and westsiders."

Why would (or should) anyone be pissed off at that??
I'd rephrase that to say:
"Let's see if ADV touts being the 1st Latino mayor cause then he'll piss off BIGOTS AND RACIST CUNTS."

March 09, 2005 2:48 PM  

Blogger SacramentoNighties said:

Mayor, the test of whether a candidate has "support" within his district is not just in the percentage of numbers posted in a poor turnout, but also in the HUGE numbers that would NOT turn out, not even respecting him enough after Hahn's latest last-minute hit to show up and stand up for him at the polls (on a sunny day, no less). If Tony V had growing support in his district, or even the SAME level of support as 2 or 4 years ago, his numbers would have increased much more. He lacks support of nearly all district activist groups (posted here repeatedly) and most local media in the district (also posted), just for starters.

Heck, a few hundred more votes now barely keeps up with population growth since 2001. (As pointed out elsewhere on today's blog, "dirty" HAHN also upped his 2001 numbers in CD14 in the primary this time, by 50 percent more actual votes - Hahn +1200 vs. ADV® +800).

March 09, 2005 3:09 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

So Girth's response and clarification means:

Valley = BIGOTS
Westsiders = RACIST CUNTS

Just wanted to make sure everyone saw the equations being played out ther. Everyone out there that ADV is rushing to court know which you are? Or, should we have Girth order some name tags?

Signed,
Another Geographically-Branded Racist C-word

March 09, 2005 3:13 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"His (ADV's) support grew across the length and breadth of the city." according to the Times.

Is it really "gaining support" if your based becomes much broader, while the turnout keeps getting lighter? Contrary to the Time's equally superficial misunderstanding of this situation, ADV is exchanging breadth for depth... getting a broader cross-section of voter support, while his bases arode (and avoid the polls) -- pulling 20,000 - 30,000 less voters to his side than four years ago. Not a win-win, by any definition.

March 09, 2005 3:18 PM  

Blogger Anon-in-the-know said:

I think you meant "erode," but agree with your point. A broader base that getting thinner by the minute means he's skating on a bigger lake with thinner ice, and the closer he tries to get to the "middle" of that ice, the higher probability of falling in.

March 09, 2005 3:25 PM  

Anonymous meat said:

All of this pontificating done on behalf of Antonio is much much worse for mayor Hahn.

Just remember Hahn % is much lower than 4 years ago and his vote total much worse than Antonio's. So potificate away!

You are all still dum-dums.

P.S. Chief Parker, Mayor Sam -thanks for the props.

March 09, 2005 3:31 PM  

Anonymous GIRTH said:

To Anon - 3:13. You REALLY can't be that much of a simpleton... can you?!?! Ok, step back, scroll up and re-read what i wrote. It's really NOT that hard to comprehend, but i guess i'll have to give my OWN clarification for you. My previous post said that people who had a problem voting for a candidate based on his RACE were BIGOTS/RACIST. So i'm sorry to say that your idiotic interpretation was totally off mark. Your pathetic attempt at Bill O'Reillying/spinning my post has got to be a JOKE! Idiot.
Valley does NOT = Bs
Westsiders does NOT = RCs

Signed,
Your daddy

March 09, 2005 3:44 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

MEAT, make fair comparisons, if you can. Hahn's vote % was not "much lower." Only 1-2 points. Not good news for an incumbent, but not bad performance for an incumbent who had four fairly well-known opponents from the sam political party (AND the Times) throw several million dollars in campaign funds solely AGAINST him. (How many millions were thrown again ADV in that same period... answer, a fraction of $1 million, very late in the game, by only one opponent).

March 09, 2005 4:00 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Girth, the "simpleton" is the one who posted such an unclear, inflammatory message in the first place. No way anyone (but you) could understand that meaning from your first post. You drew the parallels in your own writing - plain as jane.

Signed,
Yo' unmarried mama!

March 09, 2005 4:03 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Anon at 2:12pm What I meant was ADV was campaigning in his district that he was going to be 1st Latino mayor and hire a Latino Chief. Then when he was on the westside or valley he never ever mentioned those words. I agree that this should not be about race but knowing ADV he will use it when it suits his own agenda. Mark my words

March 09, 2005 4:11 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

To the above poster. You forgot to mention the $500,000 ad blitz. For all the advantages of an incumbent, lots of advertizing, Tony didn't add to his numbers of 2 years ago. I think he may be in trouble if the recall people have the money to publicize their case.

March 09, 2005 4:11 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

You would think with the 4 bullies going after Hahn for the past couple of months they would have done a lot better and Hahn a lot worse. Just goes to show that the people aren't stupid. Did everyone else notice like many of us how sad Corina looked after they realize ADV was leading? She surely didn't look like a happy wife. Maybe she's afraid ADV has sacrificed his family once again for his own political gain.

March 09, 2005 4:17 PM  

Anonymous GIRTH said:

To Simpleton,

You say my post was:
"such an unclear, inflammatory message" - But i think its inflammatory to suggest that Los Angeles voters would only vote for a white man.

An i just LOVE this line:
"No way anyone (but you) could understand that meaning from your first post." Just goes to prove my point. Just because YOU didnt pick up what i meant, doesnt mean other people with reasonable intelligence wont!

March 09, 2005 4:40 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Dear Anti-Villaraigosa Rationalization Squad:

If you seriously think that the slumbering giant of voters that choose not to participate on Tuesday is the key to recalling Antonio - then I say Go for it, idiots. At least it will keep you out of our way as we steamroll Hahn in the runoff.

Give it up kids. The evidence is there: CD 14 loves Villaraigosa. You can cling to your little recall teddy bears under the sheets and make believe you still have a shot, but pretty soon you'll be hanging around the smoldering ruins of la colectiva trying vainly to warm yourselves.

Do us all a favor and fade away.

You're finished. Spit your bile somewhere else, losers.

Love,

Reality Check

March 09, 2005 4:58 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

There's no recall going on. What it really is is a somewhat formal attack team created with the simple task of keeping Villaraigosa away from the 3rd Floor. While the only talk of the recall is on this blog (and not on local media who can promote it as being real), I have yet to see anybody getting signatures. You should publicize where you're collecting signatures at, so that we can see you all first-hand.

The only thing that I have seen in the area is Jose "Trenchcoat Mafia" Aguilar walking around Boyle Heights handing out a flyer promoting the recall and a flyer for Richard Alarcon (oh yeah, you can see how effective that was with his 5.23% in CD14).

Shouldn't people like Jose have had petitions to sign? Shouldn't he have had something more important to do, like fix the foundation of the apartment building he owns where his tenants are at risk of death in case of an earthquake?

If this is your example of a recall in action, then I know that you're nothing more than the 2005 version of La Colectiva.

March 09, 2005 4:59 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Not to beat a dead horse's ass, girth but here's your original post:

[(quoting another) "Let's see if ADV touts being the 1st Latino mayor cause then he'll piss off the valley and westsiders."

I'd rephrase that to say:
"Let's see if ADV touts being the 1st Latino mayor cause then he'll piss off BIGOTS AND RACIST CUNTS."]

The word you selected "rephrase" (check your dictionary, means)... "to say or write something using different words in order to make its original meaning clearer."

If you meant something other than "rephrase," i.e., you were directly replacing one word with another ("valley" for "racist," etc.) you should have used some other word. Words are our friends, little angry one, unless you use the wrong ones, then you look like an idiot.

Signed,
Your unmarried mama's 5th sleepover "uncle" (this week)

March 09, 2005 5:01 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Not to beat a dead horse's ass, girth but here's your original post:

[(quoting another) "Let's see if ADV touts being the 1st Latino mayor cause then he'll piss off the valley and westsiders."

I'd rephrase that to say:
"Let's see if ADV touts being the 1st Latino mayor cause then he'll piss off BIGOTS AND RACIST CUNTS."]

The word you selected "rephrase" (check your dictionary, means)... "to say or write something using different words in order to make its original meaning clearer."

If you meant something other than "rephrase," i.e., you were directly replacing one word with another ("valley" for "racist," etc.) you should have used some other word. Words are our friends, little angry one, unless you use the wrong ones, then you look like an idiot.

Signed,
Your unmarried mama's 5th sleepover "uncle" (this week)

March 09, 2005 5:01 PM  

Blogger SacramentoNighties said:

I love it. Keep it up, and we can party like it's 2001 all over again in 10 weeks. Denial ain't just a river in Egypt, it's the main moving force running through ADV®'s campaign effort.

"No one really opposes me but a weak corrupt incumbent.... there's no recall.... my CD14 constituents all love me (even though they turned out in weak record low numbers)... I can build a broad enough base across political ideologies and parties to win (this time, anyway).... African Americans will support me if I list a few ministers on my Website.... this time 'Hahn has a record' (and I don't).... I can be just as (reverse)racist and dirty as Hahn, and no one will notice.... and on and on.

Deny away, dim-bulbs.

March 09, 2005 5:16 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

The RECALL people were out last weekend getting signatures in CD14. I hear people are signing. I'm sure ADV and his people are shitting in their pants hoping that those flyers or any mention of a RECALL doesn't get on TV. I said it before and I'll say it again. IT'S ALL IN TIMING. I was right the last time and I'm right again.

March 09, 2005 5:20 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Is everybody high, Antonio got less votes in CD 14 this time than against Pacheco in 2003.

Here is the City link for 2003:

http://161.149.221.240/clk/elections/ND9735.pdf

Villaraigosa 14,621

Here is the City link for 2005:

http://www.lacity.org/clk/election/svc0305.txt

Villaraigosa 14,166

March 09, 2005 5:21 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I think ADV is counting on endorsements from people like Alarcon and Parks, maybe even Hertzberg to bring more and different minorities under his tent, but the reality of the situation is that's like Hahn counting on the endorsements of the leaders of big unions to deliver most of their voters (didn't work all that well, did it). The rank and file will split just as far and wide with any group ADV hopes to have hand-delivered by the endorsement of an also-ran. Some of these camps (Alarcon and Hertzberg, especially), people ran to in the FIRST place, because they were first and foremost anti-Villaraigosa, and thought (Hertzberg, especially) would have a better chance to keep him from being mayor than a heavily beat-up Hahn. Now that those threee are out of the picture, they'll (grudgingly) move to Hahn. ADV starts today at a finite point in the mid-thirties; Hahn starts at 40-45.

March 09, 2005 5:25 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Richard Alarcon proved you can get a lower vote total and percentage than kathleen connell did 4 years ago.

What happened to all that eastside buzz? Ohyean, it was hype put out there by bloggers.

What about the strategically placed signs along major routes in CD 14? Oh yeah, those were lies.

Richard is a good guy, but the bloggers on here and his supporters set him up to be real embaressed. Why didn't he just step aside instead of being embaressed like he was.

For all the read meat he threw at the neighborhood councils. looks like it had the net effect of nothing.

March 09, 2005 5:28 PM  

Blogger Anon-in-the-know said:

Nasty family comments aside, GIRTH, I used to teach English. You did use the wrong words, if you meant something other than that. Your original post stated you were effectively "translating" one sentence with another parallel one, in order to reveal its meaning. It's a common misuse of the term "rephrase" when people actually intend to say something like, "give it some other meaning," not the same one.

March 09, 2005 5:37 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

The strategically placed Alarcon signs are still there - still more numerous than the signs for ADV. I saw them, too. All over CD14 and CD1. Hey, who knows, if Tony V. had followed suit he might have done even better (...too late now). If you want to taunt Alarcon for not doing as well as he thought he might have (and "stealing" ADV's votes, you seem to be saying), then you better ask why his relatively poor showing (several percentage points less than Becerra 4 years ago), didn't equate to a MUCH better showing for ADV than four years ago. Especially if you take into account ADV's (alleged) MUCH "broader base." Eastside didn't really support ADV any more than the last primary in raw votes, and cast many more votes for Hahn than 4 years ago, etc.

Must be that (more?) Latinos are voting for someone other than "any Hispanic name on the ballot will do." Must be that ADV's perceived Latino base IS eroding like his supporters here won't admit. Must be he's swimming upstream, in deep doo doo.

March 09, 2005 5:50 PM  

Blogger Chief Parker said:

I suppose you can try to squirm all you want.

2 years ago Antonio got in the high 50 percentile against Nick Pacheco, now the very next time those same voters are able to make their voices heard, he gets 61%.

Everyones vote numbers were down, thats not an issue, its the percentages that matter, thats why you only need 50% plus one to win. Not X amount of raw votes.

This election proved the Eastside is solidy behind Antonio -- end the debate.

Debate over - MEAT won.

March 09, 2005 6:44 PM  

Blogger Halogirlfromcity said:

The issue is recall and we'll have to see whether the Hahnistas can fly with it, but then they'll have to prove it exists. Before the Hahnistas start with their smear campaign they better make sure their closets are empty but I know for sure that not everything is out about the Mayor. I don't even know if the AV campaign is aware of it.

It will also be interesting to see how Chick plays into this and who the remaining candidates will endorse. And, of course Hahn will strike first because he is desperate and that's the way he plays the game. He even said in the paper that the attack ads against Hertzberg weren't personal. Pleeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaase!

When he starts these attacks it will infuriate people more. People all over the City, not just the valley or eastside are looking forward to removing a desperate, ineffective leader. He's the one who should have been recalled back in early 2004.

So, Sacs Night, you need to get over it. Regardless of whether there was a high percentage of voters in CD14. It is obvious that Hahn will have to come up with a miracle to win this race because my prediction is that before these two months are up, more stuff about Hahn will be revealed and the people will see that he really isn't his daddy's son. And it will hurt.

March 09, 2005 8:18 PM  

Blogger Halogirlfromcity said:

The issue is recall and we'll have to see whether the Hahnistas can fly with it, but then they'll have to prove it exists. Before the Hahnistas start with their smear campaign they better make sure their closets are empty but I know for sure that not everything is out about the Mayor. I don't even know if the AV campaign is aware of it.

It will also be interesting to see how Chick plays into this and who the remaining candidates will endorse. And, of course Hahn will strike first because he is desperate and that's the way he plays the game. He even said in the paper that the attack ads against Hertzberg weren't personal. Pleeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaase!

When he starts these attacks it will infuriate people more. People all over the City, not just the valley or eastside are looking forward to removing a desperate, ineffective leader. He's the one who should have been recalled back in early 2004.

So, Sacs Night, you need to get over it. Regardless of whether there was a high percentage of voters in CD14. It is obvious that Hahn will have to come up with a miracle to win this race because my prediction is that before these two months are up, more stuff about Hahn will be revealed and the people will see that he really isn't his daddy's son. And it will hurt.

March 09, 2005 8:19 PM  

Blogger Halogirlfromcity said:

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

March 09, 2005 8:21 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

SacramentoNightThong must be really nervous with all that ranting he or she is doing. Whats the matter NightThong? Didn't get a pothole filled on your street?

Less voting percentage than 2003? Yet more votes than 2003? Hmmm....sounds good for ADV. Conventional wisdom always said that high voter turnout is to ADV's advantage. Yet this time 'round, only 26% of the electorate voted city-wide. And a large proportion voted for this ADV guy. Across the board.

NightThong, you've got to give credit where credit is due. The hardcores came out and voted higher across the board for ADV even in his own district. You're the one trying to spin more than any one else. Note that the infamous MEAT is not spinning now. His silence speaks volumes, and your ranting and spinning only now (before I thought you had some good points) shows your desperation. Hello all, NightThong is flailing.

March 09, 2005 10:19 PM  

Blogger Anon-in-the-know said:

Debate over?

I think you're the one squirming, CHIEF, trying to compare percentages from when two homegrown candidates (3 actually) ran for CM in CD14 two years ago with those from that same district's stats in a citywide race -- when only one guy from that district ran against two guys from the Valley and two from South L.A. Does not compute in any matchup. You might as well be comparing horses to aardvarks. (Check back when your stats are from the same general family).

Here's the only comparable analogy logic allows using the mismatched circumstances you've just tried to line up as equals: In 2003, 100 percent of the votes in CD14 went to someone from that district. In 2005, only 61 percent went to a candidate from that district. Loss of 39 percent. You can't REALLY compare the two, like you tried to, but if you insist on lining them up somehow, that's as close as it gets (and that one DOESN'T look good for ADV).

March 09, 2005 11:22 PM  

Blogger SacramentoNighties said:

Mea culpa - I tried to throw too many different points into the same thread all in a row, and overloaded people's thought processes, so let me simplify. In the one point that "ended debate" per the CHIEF (how unblog-like), I was trying to debunk some Anonymous's incongruent point here or on a similar thread - that 61 percent for ADV® in his district in a low turnout race meant he had a high level of support in CD14 (and NO, this wasn't comparing the support for ANY other candidate there, now, then, or anytime... it AIN'T about bashing Hahn in this comparison - get a grip).

Obviously you folks haven't been involved in civic activism much -- too busy blogging words from a desk to try and rally a crowd. People show "support" by showing up and voting FOR something or someone. They can show "lack of support" in two ways, voting AGAINST or NOT SHOWING UP AT ALL. (Low turnout Tuesday for every candidate -- but NOT the point, stay on track... this is just about ADV® and CD14 and the claim the Anon tried to make). His campaigners BEGGED and pleaded with supporters to show up and defend their boy's honor, but they STILL stayed home in record numbers... that ain't SUPPORT).

- HIGH percentage for one candidate in a HIGH turnout race can equal HIGH level of support; but, a HIGH percentage vote in a LOW turnout race CAN'T equal the same conclusion.

March 10, 2005 6:14 AM  

Blogger SacramentoNighties said:

OH, and not to confuse indirectly related points again, but the previous poster's point about Parker making VERY bad comparisons here is a good one. In 2003, BOTH council candidates' showed they had high levels of support and the district was energized and empowered. Turnout was VERY high for a CD race run when there was no coinciding mayor's race. NOT this past Tuesday... ADV®'s glass of "support" was way LESS than half full.

March 10, 2005 6:45 AM  

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