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Tuesday, April 12, 2005

Survey USA poll

Survey USA just unleashed their newest poll:

Antonio Villaraigosa - 64%
Jim Hahn - 32%
Undecided - 3%


Now I do recall the heated debate on the blog over the validity of this poll, but in light of the fact that no one believes polls from either camp, no one believes the LA Times poll, my question to the bloggers is -- which poll do you respect?

And anyone that says the poll on election day is barred from this blogsite.


Anonymous Anonymous said:

there's no joy in mudville today.

April 12, 2005 4:51 PM  

Blogger Athena said:

In the primary the final Survey USA poll had Villaraigosa at 41%. The final LA Times poll had him at 24%. He finished at 33.1%, right in the middle. I figure that's a pretty good guess this time too.

Gee, knocking 8 points off the Survey USA poll would put Antonio at...56%.

April 12, 2005 4:54 PM  

Blogger Anon-in-the-know said:

Much, much closer to the actual primary date, SurveyUSA pegged ADV's share of the primary vote at 41 percent, nearly 25 percent (of his final share) HIGHER than he actually received (in a very, very low turnout).

Assuming they are at least as far off percentage-wise that places him somewhere in the 45-48 percent range now. Not good news for the mayor -- but consider that this final period of 4-5 weeks is when ADV lost all his edge four years ago.

There are still many weeks, and most of the ads and mailers still be be viewed and shipped. At their current rate, however, we can expect SurveyUSA to have Hahn in negative points within a few weeks.

If anyone still considers this poll in any way valid, then ask this question of any non-partisan politician. Is there anyone out there, however, who has ever viewed a political contest 5-weeks out that really believes that only 3 percent are undecided today? (Bush/Kerry was considered an anomally at this point because only about 10 percent remained undecided)

Have there ever been only 3 percent undecided more than a month before the vote, anywhere, in any major race? Very doubtful. Especially considering the fact that 70+ percent stayed home 5 weeks ago.

April 12, 2005 5:09 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

The poll numbers aren't significant at this point. What's important is that these numbers further suppress Hahn's already feeble effort to establish any momentum. It will keep getting harder and harder for Hahn to raise money or motivate volunteers.

April 12, 2005 5:17 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

If the poll numbers aren't significant, why post them. If they're not significant, why do Hahn-haters crow like the race is already over. If they're not signicant, then there only purpose is to be used as a partisan tool, and the credibility of whatever organization that paid for them remains suspect for the rest of the race.

April 12, 2005 5:20 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Whoever does this poll should be indicted... 25 percent over for ADV before the election, and they still show their face and take the clients money to do another one. Every other poll taken during the primary (even the "Republican" poll) was many, many points closer to the primary results that this poll.

There's a malpractice suit for you.

April 12, 2005 5:27 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

The effect of this poll is that it will even further cutail Jimmy's already anemic fundraising.

They are sucking wind right now, as most of the unions have ponied up to an I.E. run by Miguel which one might anticipate to be less aggressive than Jimmy might wish for, but Miguel is no fool; he knows how to read polls and he knows that he'll have to work with Antonio for the next four years.

No one else that reads these polls will feel compelled to pony up big bucks for Jimmy, and he will have a hard time getting people to events.

These numbers are borne out by his already poor posting of $407,000 vs. $653,000 on April 7, and the wave of defections and endorsements going Antonio's way.

I predicted some time ago that the team of Carrick and Wardlaw were the same guys that advised Ira Reiner to just pull out of the run-off against Garcetti. Do not be surprised if they advise Jim to just put his followers out of their misery and do the same.

Finally, I can say that I was with Antonio this weekend; he is confident, but not overconfident. he is working harder than ever to earn endorsements and raise the money to combat the slime everyone expects to come his way from a guy who has done it twice already.

This time, he won't be sitting back and taking it.

I predict that at the end of the day, it will still be 56+% to 44-%.

The term "Dead Man Walking" seems more fitting now than ever before.

I love Alice Borden and feel for her, but, as my daddy used to say "You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear."

April 12, 2005 5:28 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

SURVEY USA also had Parks coming in third in the primary, ahead of Hertzberg -- couldn't even get the ORDER right, let alone the spread. They had Huggy Bob back of Bitter Bernie by a point or two, when in reality, Hertzberg gets something like 50 percent more total votes than Parks did.

When you only miss the spead between major players by 25-50 percent a week before the vote, you're a REAL good poll (that was sarcasm).

What are they using to count this poll, rusty abacuses (abaci?)?

April 12, 2005 5:32 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

If you look at all of the postings for this poll going back to the beginning of the current campaign, if has posted ADV in double-digits higher than reality at the time (based on every other poll and the final primary results), and also posted Hahn with 20-25 percent less final votes than he received. Using their own ACTUAL error rates, we are today somewhere around 43 percent ADV, 36 percent Hahn, and 20+ per cent undecided. The next "real" poll will be in this range, if it appears within the next week or so. Mark these words...

April 12, 2005 5:43 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I appreciate the informaiton given to us by the moderator showing Survey USA. This issue is irrelevant to those of us who dislike both candidates. These two candidates are a disgrace to our communities.

April 12, 2005 5:45 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Pick your poison -- this is all we've got. Apathy means someone else makes your mistakes for you.

Considering the bloodbath that the L.A. mayor's races have become, it's no wonder our options are limited, but there's a great deal to lose by placing a councilmember who's been ineffective in a very small area in charge of a much bigger one.

I've got some moving violations, but I can still drive better than that student driver in the next car, who should still be in the simulator.

April 12, 2005 5:52 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I doubt even the MOST adoring ADV groupies want ot chime in an support this poll... hell, it broke theirs hearts last month. Some of them thought ADV was going to avoid a runoff entirely based on SUrvey USA's bloated robo-numbers.

April 12, 2005 5:53 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Clever, 4:51 Anonymous...

Once upon a midnight dreary...!

Listen my children and you shall hear...

Mary had a little lamb...


April 12, 2005 5:55 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Good. Drive yourself back to CD 14 and have a nice day. I doubt it, however in light of the numbers.

This poll may not be right on, but it does show that Jim is in big, big trouble and time's a wastin'.

April 12, 2005 5:57 PM  

Blogger Athena said:

Survey USA has posted their crosstabs.


It is truly awful news for Hahn - particularly since they have re-weighted their numbers to make it more reflective of the LA voter universe than their polling in the primary.

This sample is only 24% Latino -- maybe a couple points high, but within reason.

All of the internals are horrible for Hahn.

Antonio leads among whites: 58/39; among African Americans 58/37; among Latinos 85/14.

Among Dems: 70/28. Hahn leads among Reps: 56/40.

Villaraigosa leads among those who voted for Parks 61/30; and among those who voted for Hertzberg 53/40.

No matter how you weight the poll, if Villaraigosa is leading among every demographic, and leading by a huge margin among people who voted for Hertzberg or Parks, Villaraigosa wins.

April 12, 2005 6:29 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Do you really think voters want a mayor with this type of record.
•Antonio Villaraigosa is the former Chairman of the UCLA Chapter of MEChA, an anti-American and anti-Israel separatist group vowing to liberate Aztlan (the U.S. Southwest), who refer to themselves as La Raza (The Race).
•Antonio Villaraigosa refuses to repudiate MEChA
•Antonio Villaraigosa never passed the bar exam despite four tries.
•Antonio Villaraigosa refuses to cooperate with the federal government to deport illegal alien gang members
Antonio Villaraigosa wants amnesty for 11 million illegal aliens.
•Antonio Villaraigosa cares little about the children's welfare as long as he can keep his constituents happy by allowing school children to buy un-inspected food from unlicensed vendors who sell food prepared in filthy conditions

April 12, 2005 6:43 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

In answer to your question:

"Do you really think voters want a mayor with this type of record."

Apparently, yes.

April 12, 2005 6:45 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

All I can say is if the blacks don't vote for Hahn like some are saying because he got rid of Parks what does that say about their intelligence? It says they are still living back in their slave days still wanting payback just like O.J.

April 12, 2005 6:53 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Oh well, seems like Hal Netkin or Glenn Spencer decided to post their anti-latino comments. Say what you want, but you know that when they say "ilegal aliens", they are not talking about any other people who just came here ilegally.

April 12, 2005 6:59 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

To poster who said "Antonio is working hard and confident." Well I hope he enjoys it. He was sitting at this very point in 2001. However, when the truth about him came out voters switched and decided against voting for him. 5 weeks is a long time in elections. Enough time for voters to find out the truth about ADV ZERO record as CM. Even Daily News listed the poor accomplishments of the past 2 yrs. Word is finally getting out.

April 12, 2005 7:00 PM  

Anonymous meat said:


Do you loonies even read each other's posts?

" magic johnson is a loser because he has aids"

"blacks that vote because of Parks are still acting like slaves"

"richard alarcon is a traitor for endorsing Villaraigosa"

"parks has lost respect for endorsing villaraigosa"

Are you guys seriously insane? Where's that guy that keeps on harping Antonio doesn't get a single republican vote? Survey USA has Antonio getting 40%. Survey USA has Antonio getting 46% of self identifies Conservative voters.

Was Survey USA right last time - yes they showed Antonio in first place, and he was. Very simple math for me.

I think Hahn would've been better off if the folks who ran his campaign were some of the bloggers here, because Kam isn't doing you rabid anti-antonio haters any justice.

blog away

April 12, 2005 7:09 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Yeah, this isn't good news for Mayor Jimmy at all. You can spin it in any Ari Fleischer/Scott McClellan way you want, but this isn't good. The only thing you can hope for is that this poll make Villaraigosa voters assume their man has this thing in the bag and hope they don't show up at the polls and Hahn sneaks in with reelection.

Few polls are perfect and I would be surprised to see Villaraisoa win with over 60% of the vote. I'd be happy but I'd be surprised. However you can't explain away 32% leads with techinal jargon. This is also bad for Hahn as he is doing much better with Hertzberg voters than to be expected.

April 12, 2005 7:19 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Pulling apart the cross-tabulations of the most errant poll in the entire election (or ANY recent election) is an exercise in simple-mindedness. This poll has proved itself so useless as a whole -- using hundreds of calls -- that trying to examine the tiny sub-pieces (which amount to a few dozen people each) as if they might mean anything MORE is like finding out you've just turned down the wrong way on a crowded one-way street, so you floor the accelerator.

Back out, give up. When SurveyUSA got the major players out of order and off by up to 50 percent of their totals just one week before the primary, the became a fool's plaything.

April 12, 2005 7:20 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

WE have 2 choices.
Hahn who gave us a great police chief, gave us after schools programs, gave us money for gang reduction programs, expanded LAX, brought back community policing, brought back the Senior Lead program, support 85 neighborhood councils citywide and gave them power on numerous commissions and meetings etc.
Villaraigosa: organized his field staffers, made a district directory, had community clean ups

Now who would you vote for?

April 12, 2005 7:23 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

So, MEAT, SurveyUSA has ADV getting 40 percent of the GOP vote (and was off by 50 percent on Hertzberg's share of the whole pie just a few weeks ago).

50 percent is a PRETTY big "MARGIN OF ERROR" for one candidates share -- they OVER-estimated ADV's botes by 25 PERCENT MUCH closer to the primary.

That means, the poll means nothing, nada, zilch.

EVERY poll had ADV in first -- this one was the FARTHEST off. (Remember... a bout a week after YOU said it would be the CLOSEST!!!)


(Wait until the robo-calling scare phoners start telling the GOP voters about ADV's voting record at assembly, date and night 2-3 times a day, for two weeks straight, like they did to Hertzberg's GOP base... )


April 12, 2005 7:25 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

DO your ever read your own posts, MEAT...

"Latinos who don't vote for ADV are stupid and lazy"

Who are YOU calling racist, half-breed?

April 12, 2005 7:26 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

MEAT even you would agree that the blacks are saying that the only reason they're voting for Villaraigosa is because he got rid of Parks. That is a really lame ass reason. They're not saying he has a vision for LA, not saying he's the best qualified, more experienced. They're just saying because he got rid of Parks. C'mon MEAT pretty lame.

April 12, 2005 7:29 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Very astute analysis by several Hahn-haters here -- "Jimmy's in trouble...this is bad news... etc."

How is this drivel any different than before the primary, when the same batch of your were saying the same thing, and EVEN saying Hertzberg would make the runoff instead? Other than picking Antonio to come in first, you've been wrong on pretty much everything else.

April 12, 2005 7:30 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Go ahead and crow about a 32 point difference shown in the sappiest, most worthless poll the city has seen in decades -- in a two way race -- 5 weeks out. ADV practically DOUBLES his votes, in five weeks? Jesus Christ couldn't do that in a Roman Catholic district, halo and all, if the VIRGIN MARY endorsed him.

Just remember, the same poll showed a whopping 22-point difference between these same two people (in a 5-way race), just one week out from the primary.

And like that other guy said, COME ON -- only 3% undecided 35 days before the vote? How stupid do you have to be to believe THAT? Not only are a hell of a lot more people than THREE percent undecided, I'd bet a month's pay THIRTY PERCENT don't even know there's an election next month yet.

Have mercy. How do these pollsters have the nerve to bill somebody for this unbelievable shit!

ADV's ahead -- sure, WHEN hasn't he been... included this point 4 years ago. Utter rubbish polling.

April 12, 2005 7:40 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

haters need to medicate immediately

April 12, 2005 8:01 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

LA TIMES POLL IS UP -- Here are the first two paragraphs.

Antonio Villaraigosa has opened an 18-point lead over incumbent James K. Hahn in the Los Angeles mayoral race, with nearly every large voting bloc supporting his effort to bounce Hahn from City Hall, according to a new Los Angeles Times Poll.

The survey shows that Hahn has yet to rebuild the historic coalition of south L.A. blacks and San Fernando Valley whites that thrust him into office four years ago. Both groups favor Villaraigosa by wide margins in the May 17 runoff.

April 12, 2005 8:14 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Crosstabs for Times poll.

Devastating. Av leads among Blacks 52 to 32, in the Valley 54 to 34.


April 12, 2005 8:24 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Now that you CD 14 guys have had your fun and listed, for the umpteenth time all of Antonio's sins, don't you get it?

Every single thing you have listed is old, old news. Jimmy slimed with it last time, and the media is not going to carry the ball for him this time. He's going to have to buy the time to do it himself.

There are two things wrong with doing just that:

1) When the candidate has to get out and slime him or herself, the propensity for backfire is much, much greater.

Jim has performed this act on Antonio, then on Hertzberg. People are attuned to this, and Jimmy's odds are bad if he goes to the slime himself; and

2) Doing it himself takes money, you know, G-R-E-E-N money, in front, before they give you the time on TV.

3) Four hundred and seven thousand barely pays his payroll for the campaign.

The USA poll, whether accurate or not, is the only present indicator, other than the posted collections on April 7 ($653,000 to $407,00) and the rash of endorsements, the bulk of which went to Antonio.

Thus, I submit, Jimmy is going to be hard pressed to raise any substantial dollars, and Antonio is going to be raking it in.

How's Jimmy going to buy the time to finance a slime campaign, then respond to the counterpunch that will launch nearly simultaneously?

Frankly, I see his campaign imploding from its own hubris and arrogance. Wardlaw's reputation is to make himself scarce when things start to go South like this, and others will distance themselves as well.

No, this poll spells much more trouble for Hahn than just looking bad; it will deflate the entire enterprise.

Things must be quiet in the bunker tonight. This poll, Adam Kamenstein's statement that more indictments are coming soon, and Magic's endorsement must have seemed like a constant barrage of incomings.

Live by the sword, die by the sword.

April 12, 2005 8:37 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

The KABC poll is a joke. I received the automated call from Marc Brown on Sunday. Good thing my kid didn't pick up the phone and start pressing numbers. Wonder how it might have turned out then.

I think the poll is right in showing AV in first by a wide margin, but probably not that far out.

LAT is closer, but too high an estimated turnout.

April 12, 2005 10:31 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"Do you really think voters want a mayor with this type of record?"

Hey, about all the Mecha stuff, the answer is yes if the choice is AV or an idiot.

April 12, 2005 10:47 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I just have a few concerns regarding poll numbers that are being made to the public. How accurate are they? For example, my close friend is a volunteer for the Villaraigosa Campaign for months. He and I differ in politics, but we are still friends and exchange our views about what we are doing for the candidate that we support. He has told me numerous times that many of the people on the calling lists he contacts cannot vote. They might support Villaraigosa, but they cannot vote for many reasons, one which is a common comment to him is "I cannot vote, but if I could I would vote for him." This is not a racist comment on my behalf of mentioning this, I want to clarify that first. Because many ADV supporters will jump on this lame excuse right away. I am just wondering how accurate these polls are if the other end of the phone line you get someone who is underage, unable to vote, or just someone that wants to get you off the phone because you are calling during dinner time...

April 12, 2005 11:00 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

All I can say to Los Angeles is: You should have listened to CD14. No more to be said.

April 13, 2005 12:35 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"Hey, about all the Mecha stuff, the answer is yes if the choice is AV or an idiot."

HEY, vote for ADV you gte both, because I'm sure he's bringing Jimmy Blackman along with him (and NO, that won't count as a "minority" hire for diversity purposes).

April 13, 2005 10:06 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

extra extra read all about it!
Antonio villaraigosa returns $47,000 dollars.
Why return clean money?

Antonio internal poll have him 8%pts ahead of Hahn.

8% Ace and Parke must be worry.

Do i smell pay to play.

April 29, 2005 12:27 AM  

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