Poll Shows Hahn In Trouble, Race Up For Grabs
The LA Times has conducted a poll that shows that while Jim Hahn is not yet mortally wounded, he could be in serious trouble. Central to the entire campaign, is that a significant number of voters are still undecided and many others are not solid in their choice. As well, Hahn's ethically challenged administration is facing near lethal, low public approval numbers.
The Times Poll shows that as expected Bernard Parks has peeled away significant African American votes from the Hahn coalition. As well, Hahn's 2001 Valley base - stung by his ferverent campaign against Valley independence - is also turning against him.
Driven by name recongition from the 2001 race, Antonio Villaraigosa is a strong second to the Mayor. As expected, Bob Hertzberg is doing well with Valley voters - his base - but is stuggling to find name recognition. Hertzberg has also not yet caught on with Jewish or Westside voters - also thought to be part of his base. However, Hertzberg can find some room for victory in the large percentage of undecideds and swing voters who could easily be influenced by the "air war" and his early entry into it with some very unique television commericals.
Antonio Villaraigosa though in striking distance of the Mayor, must be disappointed that his support among Latinos has been cut more than half from 2001. However, despite big labor's formal endorsements of the Mayor, Antonio is holding onto the rank and file as he did in 2001.
The biggest disappointment comes for Richard Alarcon, who is polling in low single digits even in his native San Fernando Valley and finds himself lacking the cash necessary to increase his visibility.
Posted by Mayor Sam @ 2/05/2005 01:25:00 PM
57 Comments:
Anybody who thinks it's all about voters being tough on incumbents should take a look at 1997. When Riordan ran for re-election, he got 61 percent of the vote. Now Hahn is running for re-election, and he's barely breaking 20.
Bye, bye Jimmy boy.
The voters have figured out you're no Kenny, Jimmy.
Not to mention that Hahn got 25 percent in the last primary. So he's dropping. And Parks put out a release saying he was at 22, now he's at 13. So he's dropping. And Villaraigosa put out a release saying he was at 25, now he's at 20. So he's dropping, too.
At least Hertzberg and Alarcon had the sense to keep their polls to themselves.
You'd think by now people would know how to play the expectations game.
"And Villaraigosa put out a release saying he was at 25, now he's at 20. So he's dropping, too."
Truthless Tony got 30 percent in the last primary 4 years ago, in a 50 percent larger field of candidates and coming off a reign as a state bigwig. Hahns's in trouble but Villaraigosa's not the one benefitting.
Can you believe that the Hahn people are so obsessed with their hatred of Chick that they spent a week forcing her to release her report on Hahn - only to have it spashed on the from page of the Daily News.
This is a case of anger getting the better of judgement.
Can you believe that the Hahn people are so obsessed with their hatred of Chick that they spent a week forcing her to release her report on Hahn - only to have it spashed on the from page of the Daily News.
This is a case of anger getting the better of judgement.
Read down the stats, Villaraigosa also has the highest "not aware" ranking of any of the three city employees in the race. Considering he's facing a recall at home, however, some of his spin doctors may see that as an advantage.
31 percent "don't know" at this stage has to be an advantage to the incumbent, especially as also-rans start jumping out.
At this point in the election, polls don't mean that much. The vote in the LA Times poll is still all about name recognition.
Alarcon's name recognition is at 47, so he's got room to grow. But he's starting low and he's got no money.
Hahn's at 92, yet he's only at 21. His only hope will be to smack the crap out of Hertzberg, which is what his consultants have been saying all along.
Hertzberg is at 41, which means he has room to grow and the money to do it. But how does he hold up when Hahn does to him what Hahn did to Villaraigosa last time?
Parks is at 84. Most everybody knows who he is but they're not voting for him. Well, except for the African-Americans that Hahn needs.
Villaraigosa is at 76 and has tons of cash. Hahn could go after him, too, but Villaraigosa could hit back and you've got to think that Latinos are going to come home. Still, it's not too promising for him that he's only at 20.
It's going to be brutal...
31 percent "don't know" doesn't help the incumbent. Undecideds traditionally break against the incumbent.
"This is a case of anger getting the better of judgement."
Two-thirds of the viables in this race as pissed off at somebody and looking to settle a grudge. Judgement is sitting out the 2005 mayoral race; it's MIA all around, and L.A. is SOL.
It is what happens when you have utter morons like Kuwata as your spokesperson. Did you see his quote today - "Ms. Chick claims to be the city's watchdog. I don't know what dog she was watching." Answer - Mr. Hahn.
Poster said: "Undecideds traditionally break against the incumbent."
Not when the one's on his heels have this much baggage.
Stated "... you've got to think that Latinos are going to come home..."
Latinos in L.A. want to see a Latino mayor in City Hall badly, but not bad enough to put someone in office that appears to fit so many negative stereotypes already unjustly passed around. They can wait for someone the whole community can look up to, not someone who fosters the kind of angry vitriol at home that we've seen here.
Most of Alarcon's people, though single digits, are NOT going to jump to Villaraigosa if/when he bails they will go just about anywhere else. ADV got 30 in the primary in '01 and added about 15 points more in the general; if he pulls off a runoff against either of the other top 2-3 with a 25 or so, he won't get past 42-43 in the general against anyone. The myth of there being a single Latino voter block in L.A. was shattered years ago, so there's no "home" for them to go to; not just because one candidate has a Hispanic surname. Give us more credit.
If that's the case, then Latinos should be dropping towards Alarcon. He's clean cut, scandal free (only real taint was the campaign against Katz), articulate and friendly. But they ain't going his way.
Truth may be that Latinos want a good mayor regardless of race. And they're yet to settle on someone.
The one-third republicans in the city would heavily favor Hahn in a runoff against Villaraigosa and split if Hahn should face Hertzberg. Av can't pull more than 1 in 5 GOP voters, even in a race with neutered ballots like this and even in a race with someone painted as dirty. Hahn could be exposed as Nixon's bastard love child next week and still get 80 percent of that block. In any such runoff, the John & Kens of the Southland will beat Tony V's ACLU/immigration record to a pulp. The best he can hope for is for Republicans to stay home, which they won't do with that pairing. Someone schedule a major Nascar event that day if you want to help AV.
Have to factor in that 3-5 majors have been hammering one guy -- Hahn, for six months, and he's in no position yet to fire back against any one, and waste ammo, until he knows who the real challenger will be. That may bump him from a runoff, but unlikely. After that, it's a one-to-one. Who has less (real, not contrived) baggage and fewer warts, who can appear nearer to middle to pull Reps and indies (that doesn't favor Villaraigosa), and who can keep the money train going. AV and Parks have both been in city government for 2 years, so they can't paint themselves as outside reformers coming in to clean up - or they would started the process before now from their high levels posts (budget and transport, 2 of the most critical committees down there). Actually, Villaraigosa's folks may need to pull in their claws a bit at this point. If they fell Hahn too early, and he (AV) is up against someone newer and cleaner -- then he falls.
Poster: "When Riordan ran for re-election, he got 61 percent of the vote. Now Hahn is running for re-election, and he's barely breaking 20."
Apples and oranges, Riordan wasn't up against this large and varied a field (something for everyone), and facing a guy who nearly tied him in the race 4 years earlier. Comparisons from that far back are useless. L.A. is nothing like it was 8-12 years ago, politically. Even a fuzzball RINO like Riordan couldn't come close to winning in L.A. today.
VERY, very strange and almost disenfranchising, that the Times doesn't appear to break out the Eastside in a race with two prominent Latinos, including one Eastside councilment. Apparently it's been lumped into Central L.A. Granted there are Latino's throughout other regions, but its telling on several fronts of how biased and incomplete is their view the city.
Also interesting that the only "which candidate would be best at" that ADV outpolls the other contenders in is improving public schools. Ironic, especially, if it's true what another poster put here last week -- that his kids go to private schools in another town.
The poll is wrong. According to the Los Angeles Times Antonio has some problems with people of color.
"Among Villaraigosa's weak spots: Barely any black voters back him. More worrisome for him, his support among likely Latino voters has dropped to 30%. In the April 2001 election, 62% of Latino voters backed him."
This poll must be wrong, everyone knows that he cares about minorities more than any of the other candidates and how could his own community not support him.
The LA Times wants a close race to sell more newspapers. Their just wrong about how well Antonio is doing. He's in first among some of the other polls.
FROM MEAT:
Shooting from the hip on this one -- this poll illustrates what the Hahn campaign was hoping would never come -- they are teetering on the edge of being forced out of the run-off. Every chance they get Kam or Carrick go out of their way to tell any reporter who will listen that they will give as good as they get, they will hit harder than people expect, blah blah blah. Simple reason they are doing this - they are the most vulnerable of the candidates -- Hahn and his campaign is a paper tiger. What this poll shows that a slight majority have heard of the controversy surrounding Hahn's administration, the cross-tabs show that those that have not heard of the controversies are Hahn's biggest supporters. So if any candidate were to go on TV and tell a compelling story in 30 seconds about this administration's troubles Hahn's last bastion of support would tumble -- and for those that have heard of it - the commercials would put the Hahn administration in a nice tightly wrapped bow for people to understand and be digusted about.
I think Bernard Parks said it best this morning at the FAME debate, "asking Jim Hahn about ethics is like asking Fat Albert about a diet".
First hits Hahn takes on the air, he topples over. Even if he attacks -- he underscores the worst perceptions of his administration.
blog away
"asking Jim Hahn about ethics is like asking Fat Albert about a diet".
How insensitive coming from a tall, thin man who's obviously never had a weight problem. As an obese hack, I'm deeply offended. What's next, making fun of the handicapped. Will Hahn's people say Laura Chick's memo on him was just "hiking her skirts" for political gain? Let's have some political correctness here from the old boys network of liberal Democrat candidates!!
The LA Times poll says the Mayor is in trouble. I dont think we needed a poll to figure that one out. He does not look to happy these days.
Lets see what happens when he goes before the people (Neighborhood Councils) on Monday. So far all he has done for the NC's is give them lip service. Maybe we will get lucky and he will not show up. He missed the debate today. Things are getting a little to hot for slim Jim.
Go Laura Go. I think Laura Chick is great! She has more balls than all of the Mayoral canidates put together. I think she should be our next Mayor.
J. Harriman said: "Republicans, despite misinformation in a previous posting, are only about 21% of the electorate."
But closer to the high 20s of likely voters; even more if SacrmentoNighties, others are correct and another Villaraigosa v. anyone 2-way race appears (plus a growing number of Latinos are becoming ambivalent towards him). If Tony headlines a runoff, the sleepy L.A. GOP will mobilize, cast up to one-third of the general election vote, with 80+ percent of that going anti-AV for law-and-order Parks, or Valley-boy Hertzberg. Sorry, J., previous poster nailed it - in that instance, anyway. GOP and African Americans pushed Hahn up over AV last time from a #2 in primary, they'll boost anyone exactly the same way if Hahn collapses by the end of this month and pulls a third place. PARKS is counting on it/staying in the race. PARKE miscalculated that/just lost AV the race, again.
Maybe Hahn and Villaraigosa can shake hands and split the fare for the limo ride to the state capital come summer.
Halogirl: "...resourced a lot of work to PR firms and wasted big bucks in overhead. City employees can do the same work for less. It's rediculous to pay a PR firm to mail fliers, make copies, lick envelopes..."
True, but what good does it do the city to mail empty envelopes to Guam?
JH: "Polls are a snapshot, not a prediction. But in this snapshot only one person should be smiling."
Exactly, Parks. If he makes a runoff against Tony V., his base is the most solid and he has the most middle-of-the-road appeal citywide with room to grow. Villaraigosa peaks at 40 in the general against anyone but a even bloodier Hahn than now exists, and would look like a hyprocrite having to bash his "good buddy" Parks -- who's only appreciable crime at that point would be that a (by then) defrocked mayor busted him. He looks vindicated and among the growing number of Latino's who oppose AV, urban crime is top-of-mind and Parks is ex-cop. Match made in heaven.
"Parks falls back to his core African-American base. And with very little money, he has no way to stanch the erosion."
Anyone who ends up facing Tony V. in a general this time, be it Parks, Hertzberg, of even Hahn, won't have to worry about money. The tally for this race will break all previous city records and the $$ signs, like the end polling, won't favor Villaraigosa. He's cemented in as at 35-40 percent, tops, as a "scary," far-left dinosaur lib in a city that votes barely left of center - especially in local elections - even on the Eastside.
I can't believe that some of you actually spent a Saturday night posting comments on a trash-filled gossip blog. Since I hadn't seen the blog in a day or two, I decided to come check it out.
I just got home from partying at a club in Santa Monica with my friends, having a few drinks, and meeting great people. I hope someday, SacramentoNighties will know what that feels like.
Harriman: "A Villaraigosa v Hertzberg run-off would be interesting. But favors Antonio. He would clean up with African-Americans. . ."
Very doubtful, and again, underestimating that consituency's intelligence/over-estimating some (bad) textbook case study of "all minorities stick together against 'whites'." While A-A's do tend to vote more as a block than others, among their major concerns every time out are crime (AV scores low), border issues -- especially as they are perceived to affect jobs (scores very low), and trustworthiness (ditto, all over again). A candidate facing a recall at home for lying to his own community is in trouble with that base more so than in most others.
Woof, Harriman's getting snippy, SacNights. That crack about Parke losing another mayor's race for Tony V. must have gotten on his alter ego's last nerve (or maybe that wasn't your post).
When ADV is losing Latinos 30% thats a major problem with Hahn gaining Latinos. Parks honesty percentage is a joke. His percentage how holding down crime is laughable. When he was chief crime especially homicides were way up. Hahn at 50% looks good me and goes to show that all the attacks are not working as well as the candidates thought they would. When the attack ads start coming out people will realize once again why ADV shouldn't even be in office. BYW CHICK'S plan to burn Hahn with that memo backfired on her sleazy butt. She showed her true colors.
When ADV is losing Latinos 30% thats a major problem with Hahn gaining Latinos. Parks honesty percentage is a joke. His percentage how holding down crime is laughable. When he was chief crime especially homicides were way up. Hahn at 50% looks good me and goes to show that all the attacks are not working as well as the candidates thought they would. When the attack ads start coming out people will realize once again why ADV shouldn't even be in office. BTW CHICK'S plan to burn Hahn with that memo backfired on her sleazy butt. She showed her true colors.
The LAT poll suggests that Antonio will not be the next mayor of Los Angeles. He peaks at 45-46%. J. Harriman is totally off base about no negatives among the Latino population and that African-Americans will go to Antonio in large numbers. They won't. The question for Antonio is: Where does he go after losing once again? I doubt if he will go back to CD14.
Tony Villar's numbers for "who's your second choice" if your No. 1 doesn't make the cut, are no better than any of the other challengers across the board, and lower than Hahn's. Not exactly good news for the 2001 runner- up who ran for city council to stay on the city radar.
In 2001 black radio hosts hammered away at Villaraigosa not being smart enough to pass the bar after trying 5 times.
Being percieved as dumb may hurt him in the black community more than anything else.
you just proved your own stupidity.
Antonio will lose more than 30% Latino vote. I hear that because he's opposing the sales tax initiative and in fact being a hypocrite cause he supported Measure A, Latinos are really pissed at him. There's been 5 homicides in his district in Jan. alone and he hasn't said one word about them. Latinos are angry because in the beginning public safety was his big issue. Now its traffic. Go figure!!! CD14 will come out in force to teach him a lesson. When you have more gang bangers in your district and not helping to get officers that's a major problem
Your bitterness is influencing your reason.
If Hahn was a Latino gang banger, Antonio would be the first to say that we should respect "innocent until proven guilty." But since he is not Latino or a gang banger, then its okay to deny him his due process rights. Way to go, Antonio.
We have to remember that Antonio was a gang banger and protects them. He's against Rocky's gang injunctions. What does it say about Antonio when you have 5 homicides in your district in one month, he's against the sales tax initiative aligning himself with losers like Parks and not one word anymore on public safety issues? IT SAYS HE'S A HYPOCRITE. You can't trust his word and he's proven his word is worth 00000000
Oh my, next thing you know people are going to claim that "American Me" was a fictional movie based on the life of Villaraigosa. To say that Villaraigosa (or ANY other elected official) is pro-gangs is just plain nonsense. To make any claim that because he had a wild lifestyle when he was a youth is any sign that he supports gangs members is just pulling scare tactics to justify any anti-Villaraigosa hatred that you have for him. It's obvious that many of you have a hatred for the man deeper than just politics, but lets use our criticisms for something that will ultimately help us push for a better city for all of us. If you can't even do that, you need to look at yourself before you look and criticize others.
ADV's actions obviously don't touch a nerve with you like they do many of us who had a ray of hope for CD14. When you live in a community flourishing with gangs and ADV just wants you to pick up a broom and sweep when we've had 5 homicides in one month what the hell do you think the message is to all of us? You're right previous poster about the way ADV starts his sentences at debates. Never, ever does he say as councilman I did xyz because he hasn't. He's lost 30% of Latino voters and steadily going down. LAT poll doesn't state anthing about EASTSIDE Latinos cause that would definitely be a 90% drop.
Good point. In fact, since the personal life stuff harmed his opponet more than it harmed Villaraigosa last time - made people feel sorry for him - it's a good bet that if it does resurface it's coming up from his campaign this time, to add a sympathy factor. New direction of flow, but, again, not an "original idea." Slime you're opponent, and slime your self too (but about personal stuff), so you get people feeling sorry. That's not conspiracy, that's win at all costs.
In an interview with the Wave, Antonio claimed credit for setting up 80 neighborhood watches in CD14. Anybody who lives in CD14 knows that is a lie. Also, he criticizes Hahn for breaking campaign promises. But, when the Eliseo Villanueva cites that as a reason for recalling him, Antonio dismisses the recall as a "political ploy."
FROM ARMANDO TO JUNE:
Now, I've been around Sister City and the 4th Floor when it was around, and your recent entry into this blog just makes me wonder: for somebody who has such a firm desire to see Villaraigosa brought down, seeing that you have stories from back, back, BACK in the days about him, I really want to know what happened that has made you feel that way about him. I'm just really interested in knowing. If you want to reply, you can do so on the blog or e-mail me at wyldarmando@yahoo.com. Whichever you prefer is fine by me. Take care.
FROM MEAT:
LA Times: "Graft Inquiries"
Definition of the word "graft" Pronunciation Key (grft)
n.
Unscrupulous use of one's position to derive profit or advantages; extortion.
Money or an advantage gained or yielded by unscrupulous means.
Surprised the Hahn team didn't storm the LA Times building demanding they not use this word. Front page story with this word as the lead-in is not a fun way for the campaign to begin its Sunday. But i suppose the Hahn campaign has bigger issues than one word in the LA Times. Its just this words lends credence to my Gotti-Hahn comparison.
In fact the word "graft" was made famous during the Gotti investigation (just thought this would be a useful morsal of information).
Thanks LA Times for keeping your end of the bargain on our deal -- thank you recall supporters for making the enemies of Antonio look insane, thank you bloggers for being crazy dum-dums. Thank you LA.
blog away
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
June,
Your charges are serious and require serious attention. I have removed it for now, however, if you produce the documentation (police reports, etc.) then we'll be glad to have you post again. If this is true, it needs to be out there.
June should put up her real first and last name. She went into great detail as to what happened and who she claims was involved. With all the lengths that people come onto this blog to point fingers at one another and make accusations about the candidates (particularly Villaraigosa), it's hard for somebody to come on here and accuse them of almost being raped by one without coming forward all the way and providing the firm documentation to prove it. Like Mayor Sam said, I hope that you can provide the forms as to give you some credibility in your claim, but the problem is that all claims, big or small, should be supported by proof and evidence.
But at the end of it all, your accusation is something that shouldn't be brought out like it did in a blog. You need to get your stuff together and go to the legal authorities (maybe a lawyer). Because unless this is something that you can support 100% and prove to all that it did happen and that it was Villaraigosa who did it, you just opened yourself to one hell of a case of slander. And that too can only be tied in if you provide your information to somebody - not necessarily here on the blog, but maybe e-mail Mayor Sam with it to hold you accountable to your words.
June if you have proof of this, then you should bring it forward. You owe it to Mayor Sam as well as the voters. You already brought it up so you can't put the toothpaste back into the tube.
If this is bullshit, Mayor Sam should trace your IP, give it to the cops and have you turned in.
Put up or shut up June.
Did I miss something? What is all this?
I have heard a lot of the old back in the day stories June posted earlier that were taken off. Its common knowledge in certain circles on the Eastside. And Yes, Mayor Sam I believe there are records. June do everyone a favor and give the info to Mayor Sam. to previous poster no one felt sorry for Antonio after we found out he wrote that letter for drug kingpin. Then when we found out that he took campaign money from the family Antonio looked even worse. Now we hear he took money from ENRON. Meat you can spin all you want on this blog but people are beginning to ignore your hollow words
MEAT posted the following and tried tying it to Hahn:
Definition of the word "graft" Pronunciation Key (grft)
n.
Unscrupulous use of one's position to derive profit or advantages; extortion. Money or an advantage gained or yielded by unscrupulous means.
What is "the unscrupulous use of one's position" in Hahn's case? MEAT, what exactly did Hahn do? (Is it like writing a letter for a drug pin (Villaraigosa)?)
What is the "derived profit or advantage; extortion"? What is Hahn's derived profit or advantage? (Is it like getting a free roof on your home from a contractor(Alatorre))
Let's here your argument to the jury understanding the two questions that have to be answered to prove guilt.
Here is your chance to show us ALL, you got the goods on Hahn, and not just a bunch of smoke.
I'm coughing already. . .
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