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Thursday, December 03, 2009

2009 Predictions Recap

At the end of every year I play Nostra-dum-dum and offer up predictions for the coming year.  But first we have to review how well we did.  Though in 2008 my batting average was abysmal, 2009 worked out a little better.  Let's review, shall we?
  1. Dianne Feinstein will announce her campaign for California Governor in early 2010; Antonio Villaraigosa will announce prior to the March primary he has chosen not to run for Governor. Some will suspect a Villaraigosa-Feinstein deal; if he gets out and she wins, Feinstein will appoint Villaraigosa to her Senate seat.

    Still some time left for this to happen but we were dead on about the Mayor not running.

  2. The LAUSD will teeter seriously close to bankruptcy; the number of charter school starts will increase. Both the LAUSD and the UTLA will play even harder ball to block as many charters as possible

    I nailed this one.  Even the Socialists agree.

  3. California's budget and credit crisis will ultimately lead to the loan foreclosure of some major LA Community Redevelopment Agency projects. This will seriously strain agency receipts of tax increment financing leading to a near financial meltdown for the CRA.

    The meltdown hasn't happened just yet but could be coming soon.

  4. The California Supreme Court will declare Proposition 8 unconstitutional; it will eventually get to the US Supreme Court but not until 2010 or 2011.

    Wrong on this one, the Court didn't have the guts to do the right thing.

  5. Racial gang violence in South LA will increase in the new year causing several nights of rioting and warfare, leading President Obama himself to come to LA to negotiate the peace. During the visit he will offer what many perceive as a major snub to Mayor Villaraigosa.

    The violence didn't ramp up enough for riots or an Obama intervention but a snub of sorts was offered to Mayor Villaraigosa when a Clowncil committee said that gang programs run out of the Mayor's office should be handed off to an independent agency.

  6. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will announce he is running for the US Senate Seat occupied by Barbara Boxer.


  7. Zuma Dogg will receive more votes than Walter Moore in the March primary.

    Not even close.

  8. Obama's Attorney General Eric Holder will announce his office is seeking major indictments against SEIU, starting with Local 721 as the result of a serious investigation into labor union corruption.

    Nope.  In fact some people think Holder is going the other direction.

  9. Nick Patsaouras will defeat Wendy Greuel for City Controller.

    Oh well.

  10. Home Depot facing significant revenue losses will install new corporate management who will freeze store expansion plans ultimately putting an end to the retailer's effort to build a store in Sunland-Tujunga by the end of the year.

    I think even Joe B was shocked how fast this one came true!

  11. Former KABC talkshow host Larry Elder will be selected to take over the radio program of the retiring Bill O'Reilly, ironically eventually returning him to the station as his Los Angeles affiliate.

    Nope. Nothing as good and in fact it got really bad!

  12. Patrick Range McDonald of the LA Weekly will win a Pulitzer Prize for his investigative reporting of Mayor Villaraigosa.

    Not yet.  But the Weekly under the awesome Jill Stewart and with the participation of scribes like McDonald and Daniel Hempiel is pissing off all the right people and has created a job for old chola Marc Cooper funded by the good donors of the University of Southern California.

  13. Alaska Governor Sarah Palin will announce she will challenge incumbent US Senator Lisa Murkowski in the 2010 Republican Primary.

    The equally controversial and popular 2008 GOP Vice Presidential candidate made a different and more lucrative career decision.

  14. District Attorney Steve Cooley will announce a felony indictment of a major Los Angeles elected official on criminal but not corruption charges.

    No he's too busy chasing pot smokers with Nuch.

  15. Educator Louis Pugliese will narrowly defeat San Fernando Mayor Nury Perez for Board of Education.


  16. Former Presidential candidate John McCain and his wife Cindy will be selected to host a daytime talk show.

    This one was a joke.

  17. The Los Angeles Dodgers will defeat the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the World Series, game 6.

    Except for some lousy post-season play, this would have happened!

  18. The US Department of Transportation will place Metrolink into receivership and take over day to day operations following a major investigation that shows serious mismanagement and corruption at the agency.

    There's still time!

  19. Ron Kaye and the SLAP movement will announce the formation of another effort to lead the San Fernando Valley to secede from the San Fernando Valley, however this time it will be a highly coordinated effort with similar communities in the Harbor, Westside and CD14.

    Nope.  They're too busy chasing pot smokers too.

  20. The race for the 5th Council District will culminate in a runoff between candidates Paul Koretz and David T. Vahedi and will be so close the election won't be certified for as much as two months after the polling is complete.

    Nailed this one except the City Clerk got done faster than I predicted.



Anonymous Anonymous said:

Kudos to you Mike, for posting the good, the bad, and the ugly of your predictions. Many prognosticators just feature the ones that came true.

Here is a prediction for the next year:

An ambitious candidate will emerge to run against Tom LaBonge.

Oh sure, he thinks he's popular because of his meaningless one-liners and backslapping. But the reality is, he is known among the CD4 (and citywide) intelligentsia as an embarrassing buffoon who doesn't get it.

Homeowners groups across CD4 are actively trying to convince / recruit candidates. Several are being mentioned, including those with serious fundraising capability and the ability to bring in the small personal checks (matchable by the city) and ground troops necessary to win a city council election.

LaBonge needs to be very very careful in the next year. Who he gets close to. What decisions he makes. Who he helps. Who he screws. What he says. Who he says it to. Et cetera.

Prediction: Candidate announces in April - July 2010 and LaBonge loses in 2011.

December 03, 2009 9:55 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

So you're clearly wrong far more often than you are right.


December 03, 2009 11:04 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Hey Phil,

If you do run against Tom Le Bonge, how will you feel if Chris Essel doesn't endorse you to beat him?

December 03, 2009 11:07 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I didn't see your prediction that you would fire and ban two of the most popular writers on the site. (That leaves out Joe B and Red Snot).

December 03, 2009 11:07 PM  

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