Predictions for Tuesday's Vote
Some of you won't like these numbers and I could be totally wrong but since I've been asked here are my predictions for Tuesday's elections.
Total Votes Cast
15,777
Krekorian
42.50% 6,705
Tamar
22.75% 3,589
Essel
17.00% 2,682
Benson
4.79% 756
Zuma
4.44% 700
Sanchez
3.55% 560
McCue
2.66% 420
Sheftel
1.78% 280
Essavi
0.36% 56
Bisani
0.18% 28
Total Votes Cast
15,777
Krekorian
42.50% 6,705
Tamar
22.75% 3,589
Essel
17.00% 2,682
Benson
4.79% 756
Zuma
4.44% 700
Sanchez
3.55% 560
McCue
2.66% 420
Sheftel
1.78% 280
Essavi
0.36% 56
Bisani
0.18% 28
Labels: cd2 special election, predictions
Posted by Michael Higby @ 9/20/2009 09:33:00 PM
48 Comments:
You must be smoking something good to come up with those #s.
With the Los Angeles County Republican Party and the San Fernando Republican Party getting out the vote for Mary and Joe, your numbers are quite lacking.
The RPLAC folks see this as an opportunity to get a real Republican on the city council, not the RINOS who take up space there now.
"I could really be wrong."
Yes, we all know that. We remember that you chose Zuma Dogg for Mayor, for one.
Right on!
You could be right, you could be wrong. I don't believe that Paul will come so close to outright victory, neither do I think Mary Benson will only see the benefit of only 10% of Walter Moore's voters.
My prediction is somewhere in between, with Mary and Paul in first and second places, and Tamar and the rest scrabbling around to form alliances.
The reason I believe Mary Benson is such a strong candidate is based on the knee-jerk reaction of the Tamar people, who must be desperate to be resorting to homophobic and race-based slurs. If Mary were such a minor player, why all the fuss?
You forget that Walter went up against one candidate, with plenty of animus against him. Plus he didn't campaign.
In this case you have three candidates who even with their detractors don't rise to Villar's negatives and have tons of committed volunteers.
If you review the numbers I give Mary nearly the same percentage of the leftover vote that Walter got, with some slippage because Walter had far more name ID and far more lead time. Also a few of the grassroots candidates have a base that the Mayoral grassroots candidates didn't have.
And when I talk about grassroots candidates I don't mean Craig X Rubin or Frank Sheftel.
I'm going to print this out and follow along on Tuesday.
Current polling says Tamar is very close to winning the election outright.
Alright Michael, If I don't come in TOP 4...please tell me the ban or punishment that I must follow.
EX: Stay out of City Hall for a year. Or run your ads on my blog for a year. All you have to do is buy me a Subway foot long if you are wrong. Cause I could alway use one of those. Sorry kiddies. I know it feels fun and momentous for some of the other grass root candidates, but it's a big district out there. And I think most people who read this blog already know who they are voting for. You should be HAPPY for me. I paid the dues to sing the blues.
OH MY GOODNESS TAMAR FAN: Please. You're going to make Tamar fans look crazy. KREKORIAN IS GOING TO WIN BUT A RUN-OFF WILL BE NEEDED.
TAMAR FLAT OUT? Common. You gotta spin better than that. Try, "Latest research shows Tamar making the run-off, under Krekorian. THEN, people might believe you.
Oh that's funny "Tamar Fan!" Way to just put something out there.....don't think so.
Clearly you want people to read your numbers and go for Paul, we get it. You want Paul, but 42% really?? There aren't that many Armenians in that district and no one else wants him as the city council person. Send him back to the Assembly!
Not off by much, but with two caveats.
Paul will come closer than your prediction om winning it outright on Tuesday.
Essel will finish second.
9:57pm, NO, he didn't PICK Zuma as winner. He ENDORSED Zuma. There IS a difference.
10:30. In your dreams Tamar fan! Tamar will be lucky to place. She'll not come close to winning outright and may not even be in the running if there is a run-off. Show us the current polling you're talking about. As I started out by saying, is it in your dreams?
10:03 PM. You out yourself with your well know language patterns. Isn't your own show enough?
10:41 - there are more Armenians than you think.
10:42 # 1 - Maybe but I doubt it.
10:43 # 2 - You are correct.
Zuma Dogg - if you crack top 4 I'll buy you 10 Subway sammiches.
Don't count Tamar out too soon. The endorsement from Joe B and others will earn a lot of votes.
A pretty good read of the likely results.
Krekorian will win at the end because he has the best campaign and the best campaign team in this election.
Michael at 10:46: Why 10 subways?
a) as an extra celebration cause you are happy for me.
b) or because you think it's not going to happen so you are making the bet ten times more because you know you won't have to buy them.
BETTER BE a), Y'ALL OR I WON'T CLICK ON ADS FOR YOU ANYMORE. (Just kidding. I still will.)
Michael Higby,
I agree with your projections on two candidates. Krekorian will finish in first place and Bisani will finish in last place.
I disagree with everything else.
Krekorian and Essel are carpetbaggers. They may have only carpetbagged a few miles, but people are aware of that. They have created some real animosity towards them.
Krekorian won't crack 40%. Somewhere in the 28-39 range.
Sheftel with only 280? Please. He actually has a campaign office/headquarters and has contacted over 6,000 voters already. He will finish in the top 4.
I think it is foolish to underestimate Walter Moore's ability to swing a few thousand votes to Mary. Also...the Zuma Dogg factor is a bit mystical..it is something that can never really be known until election day.
I predict that WHOEVER makes in into the runoff will receive combined support from all their rivals and will defeat your favorite budget-destroying Socialist.
The Greuel-Essel commercial ran last night at like 2 a.m. on E! when none of the older people most likely to vote would ever be watching. And Chelsea Lately, really? Just because it was a cheap time? Plus Wendy talked really, really fast like a used car salesman to get it in under 15 seconds. I guess it gets Essel's name out there to someone?
Other than that negative mailer about Krekorian that backfired because Krack didn't vote FOR the Verdugo development before he voted against it - frankly, anything she's done well is despite him. He works best with slimy candidates who are good liars.
10:41 - so you have to play the Armenian card, shame on you. Look at the roster of community leaders from Studio City to North Hollywood to Valley Glen to Sunland-Tujunga, etc. and pick out the Armenians. Maybe one or two. If you think this is about how many Armenians are in CD2 and that that will effect the outcome, you are dumber than dumb. It's not about the Armenian vote but about voting for the most qualified person. That's Paul Krekorian, citizen and patriot.
Krekorian will get slaughtered in a runoff with Galatzan. You heard it here first.
The only suspense on Election night will be if Krekorian will be winning outright or not.
It really does not matter who finishes second.
"I think it is foolish to underestimate Walter Moore's ability to swing a few thousand votes to Mary."
And what ability is that? No one ever voted for Walter Moore, they voted against AV. Not more than 10 people in off of CD2 know who the hell Walter Moore is.
10:56 - Not remotely possilbe and what makes you think Galatzan will even be in a runoff?
As a CD2 voter i think you could be pretty much right on the money.
Heard more from Krekorian on every front compared to all the candidates out there.
Krekorian's using his Assembly staff to campaign and go door to door? That's another issue to raise.
11:07 CD2 will come together to support Galatzan in a run-off against Krekorian. She is a hometown girl and is better prepared to step into office. You just watch!
That's not a guess from Higby but one of the dem der edu-macated polling thangs. I red dat one 2.
Winner will get less than 7,000 votes. No one cares THAT much in Special Elections these days.
If the vote were dependent on the number of slick campaign flyers, Essel and Krekorian would win, but voters in CD2 are a lot more engaged than other districts.
Based on the overall awareness and disgust among CD2 voters with the Mayor, the carpetbaggers, quitters, and career politicians, the weak approval of Wendy Greuel whose endorsement is not all that helpful, the known animosity toward certain ethnicities, and the vicious attacks by Tamar's supporters on Mary Benson, anything can happen.
The Times just reaffirmed its endorsement of Essel, saying she's the most independent of City Hall and "not beholden to it" among the major candidates. Also flat-out says they wouldn't endorse an incumbent, while the "grassroots" people are too adversarial.
They've definitely lost their minds again, or still - still Shallman's lackeys at least until Newton leaves end of the month and then we'll see. With a couple others beholden to certain downtown interests staying on and a Republican (who'd never go for a Krakorian type from the Assembly, hence they didn't like Koretz either).
What they're NOT doing as they never do, is vote for the most qualified candidate.
I worked with Tamar's campaign today and we had 500 people walking precincts in Sunlamd-Tujunga, Sylmar and Pacoima. Lots of Latinos will vote for her.
Zuma 10:36
Back peddling already??
Earlier you said "Do you really think these...people that no one knows can catch up to ...Zuma Dogg?"
Good luck to Zuma, Mary and Paul. I don't give a hoot about any of the rest of you!
I surely wish we had instant runoff voting in this election.
I hope your numbers are way off on Galatzan. Did everybody forget how her husband has voted on every issue that non-chambers clubs, non-profits, groups, neighborhood councils, etc. opposed? He supported them all. Every stinking one of them!
Tamar has two jobs. She doesn't need this one. Finish it up before you try to move on. Your home financial issues are not any of our concern or problem.
The mayor loves, loves, loves Tamar and Essel both. That's why he hasn't endorsed.
Here's my take: If Krekorian is to win this seat, he damn well better do so in the primary, because the rest will band together behind whoever is in second place to knock him out in the general.
All smart money says it is Chris Essel; money talks and bullshit walks. But, if it is Tamar or Mary, same rules apply.
This is a pattern that has prevailed throughout LA City Council elections; if the favorite or the incumbent doesn't win in the primary, they become the target in the runoff and all others in the race endorse the second place finisher.
One other observation: Zooma is backpedaling; anyone catch it?
Now he is asking "Stay away for one year?". That is crawfishing on his promise to retire and go back to Malibu to live and stay away from City Hall FOREVER.
Do you get it Saltzburg? Your 15 minutes are up. Go home and get a job and try to salvage what is left of a lost life.
Actually, 7,644 people in CD 2 voted for me in March.
And those were votes for me, not counting votes for other non-Villaraigosa candidates.
To have beaten Greuel in the last election, all a candidate would have needed was 5,289 votes.
We'll see Tuesday, huh? I sure hope Mary Benson wins. The City needs someone level-headed.
Anyone supporting any other grassroots candidate should vote for Mary Benson. Otherwise, you're just fracturing the vote and helping the three special-interest candidates.
Your numbers are right on, Mayor Sam.
In fact, I am giving Michael Higby a bonus for his work on Paul's campaign and doubling his salary as well.
Eric Hacopian
You told me to "stay tuned" (always patronizing, that phrase) as though you had some real info. But Michael, you're numbers aren't nearly high enough. There will be at least 18,000 votes. And you will need a minimum of 5,000 to finish second. And your number for Essel is way too low, even though there's no enthusiasm for her outside of Studio City.
There are 20,000 more registered voters in the district than there were for the last special, when Wendy ran against Tony Cardenas. That special was in December, and it fetched almost 20% of the registered. This election will likely do that as well and reach about 18,000 voters. All three top candidates have GOTV machines.
Joseph I don't see stay tuned as patronizing; it means "hang tight - more is coming."
What is patronizing for Walter Moore to tell people who are supporting other candidates to not vote for their choice but his because they have no chance and its a wasted vote.
That's pretty much what a lot of people who wanted to vote for Walter were told that it was a wasted vote (and based on Walter's performance as a candidate it was). He was equally arrogant in telling people that anyone not voting for him was voting for Villaraigosa. In the end the overwhelming majority of the city rejected him.
If you feel committed to Michael McCue, Zuma Dogg, Pete Sanchez, Sheftel or even Bisani vote for them. Don't worry about Tamar, Essel or Paul. Your candidate probably won't win but the better they perform now the better off they will be two years from now when Essel, Tamar or Paul have pissed everyone off and come up for re-election.
Anyway Mary Benson will get few votes outside Sunland-Tujunga. Its not the same as the Mayoral election because there are more choices and fewer voters.
But then again I could totally be wrong. However living closer to CD2 than Chris Essel, Walter Moore or Joseph Mailander I've been out there and I don't see much turnout.
I don't think the turnout will be high at all. Far from it. That's why, in my opinion, this election could come down to a dozen or couple of dozen votes.
Impact: if you care, don't sit this one out.
Is there any bigger waste of time than all of this speculation? How about this, just wait until tomorrow night for results. Even if they aren't finanlized, we'll have an idea. Does someone think they are going to end up on NBC News as political color commentator based on any of this?
Confirmed once again that Essel is dumb. Watching the commercial you think Wendy is the candidate and Chris is a prop ( Don`t forget images matter not what it is said) Wendy is using Chris for her Mayoral race.
Mailander is drinking again. Essel has no enthusiasm period outside decrepit old rich weirdos Dick Riordan and Eli Broad and a handful of developers.
12:43 - You were walking the wrong precinct, slick. CD2 is not located in Sylmar.
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