Parsing the Vote
The folks at the Foothills Forum site have done an excellent job, using data from the City Clerk's office integrated with Google Maps to show how the candidates performed across CD2 yesterday.
Get ready to rumble!
Judging from the per precinct performance Essel captured most of Studio City and Sherman Oaks and split Sunland-Tujunga with Krekorian. Krekorian, as expected, captured the heart of the district in North Hollywood, Valley Glen, Valley Village, etc.
Most remarkable to this old, dead Republican Mayor is how well Essel performed in Sunland-Tujunga.
Galatzan took three precincts in Sherman Oaks, and one in her own Studio City but couldn't expand north of Magnolia Boulevard. Similiarly Krekorian did not do well in Studio City, something his team will need to address for the run-off.
Mary Benson was able to take two precincts in Sunland-Tujunga and one (preumably her own) in Sun Valley. Pete Sanchez as expected performed well in his native Valley Village capturing two precints there.
Labels: cd2 special election, cd2 special election runoff, Chris Essel, Mary Benson, paul krekorian, pete sanchez, tamar galatzan
Posted by Michael Higby @ 9/23/2009 12:26:00 PM
64 Comments:
The colors show who won the precinct but the underlaying data adds to the story. A number of them were close even though Essel won.
A lot of folks that work in the entertainment industry live up here also because it's easy access to the studios and the rent is cheap. Plus there is a lot of residual good will for Wendy.
Nice map and great work.
The precinct that Essel won in Sunland Tujunga are places that Mary Benson did very well in.
Essel won very small pluralities up here. She is not winning this area in December, most people will either hold their noses and vote Krekorian or just stay home.
Proud Benson Supporter
Well the people who know Krekorian best seem to support him pretty strongly.
Hard to miss that sea of Blue in the middle of the district.
Krekorian wins in December.
Interesting Map
These are my numbers.
Two and half times the Money + The endorsement of the popular incumbent + the support of the Mayors political Machine + running against a state legislator=
A distant second place finish.
I think Hacopian gave Shallman a swirlie.
As a Tamar supporter I am bummed that the best candidate lost last night.
I need at least a week to become a Paul supporter.
Essel is not an option.
Essel won very small pluralities up here. She is not winning this area in December, most people will either hold their noses and vote Krekorian or just stay home.
Proud Benson Supporter
September 23, 2009 12:41 PM
Mary might get some concessions if she can provide a solid block of voters to Essel. Politics make strange bedfellows.
P.S. You aren't really a Benson supporter are you? LOL
Paul is in deep trouble. Based on his own poll, Chris has all the momentum having come from 3% all the way to 29%. This is Greuel - Cardenas II only Paul will have less money and more to overcome in terms of people hating on Suckramento.
December 8th, Hold your nose and Vote against Essel.
Joe Essavi. Please come remove your campaign signs that are plastered all over Sunland-Tujunga. Thank-you.
Joe M - thank you but please give all props to Mike at Foothills Forum. He did all the coding and data integration with Google Maps.
Joe B - No shit. Also Frank Sheftel.
Last night when I was driving home from Krekorian's at about 12:30 I was on the phone with Phil.
At the corner of Lankershim and Victory there were two thugs being handuffed by cops.
All with six Sheftel signs crammed into the side of a construction fence as backdrop.
Krekorian didn't do that well in other areas of the district.
He needs to find out if it was an anti Krekorian vote.
He didn't win as big a plurality as he had hoped. In fact it was significantly less than predicted.
Both sides are firm in their support so the big pile of voters in the middle are up for grabs.
Of those remaining, whose supporters are the most loyal?(rhetorical question)
I'm seeing the anti-Essel posters coming out early (and often).
It ain't over til it's over. We have a horse race here.
I'd bet $$ that Mary will receive a few calls. Her endorsement would centainly help a candidate.
No this is Obama-Hillary.
Mary should tell them both to piss off.
Ron Kaye has a good post up on the vote today.
It seems that the grassroots MIGHT get what I've been saying since the Walter Moore debacle.
You have to get out the vote using whatever resources you have.
Its awful nice to see your name on a hat a bumper sticker or a yard sign but those things are meaningless.
Get out the vote baby!
As a Tamar supporter I am bummed that the best candidate lost last night.
I need at least a week to become a Paul supporter.
Essel is not an option.
September 23, 2009 1:00 PM
I feel your pain. If there maybe 1 or 2 fewer minority candidates, Mary would have sent Tamar to the showers early in fourth place. I guess Tamar needs to have a ten to one advantage in campaign funds to do well.
Considering the amount of money she spent (~$39/vote), her showing was pathetic compared to Mary (~$3/vote)
Not a single Zuma Dogg precinct in the bunch.
To paraphrase our election lingo:
ANYTHING BUT POST-ELECTION DISSECTION!
Please, just for one day. I can't take three more months of this.
Of course there weren't any zuma dogg precincts.
The man is a terrific entertainer and probably very well intentioned. But to the credit of the residents of CD2 (I am not in cd2), they were able to see the big picture. As much fun as it is to have Zuma Dogg around, and I repeated it a hundred times, he was his campaign's own worst enemy. But I do recognize that he has popularity, but a very weak hand to play.
410 votes, most of them from people within our sphere. I think Zuma would be great in some sort of policy analysis position, and I think he has earned it. But "NOONE" should be surprised that he garnered just 410 votes.
And while I am no fan of Phil's, and I think he is something of a crackpot, he really looks like he gave it his all and he should be commended. I still think he is someone looking for a career or something he is good at, but his dedication to cover the entire election is commendable. But I wish he would have refrained from tarnishing the name of that women who held that event in that church. If anything, that woman is a patriot who was trying to get attention focus on the people who were going to come in 1, 2 and 3. Someone should note that they did come in 1, 2 and 3. I think Phil owes her an apology for her work, even if he disagrees with her views. Only children act like that. But good job otherwise Mr. Jennerjahn.
Tamar didn't run a phone op. She concentrated on her on name ID, mailers, bloggers and forums. And I guess some walking.
Tamar did a lot of walking, and meet & greets. She told me she didn't have the money to promote for the absentee vote at the time it was needed. This probably hurt her a lot.
Sunland-Tujunga-Shadow Hills-Van Nuys-Valley Glen Sheftel signs are already down. Lankershim and Victoy, coming down in an hour.
PS those were put up with the permission of the new owner of the restaruant that is about to open up. Ribbon cutting next month.
Working on the rest of Valley Village and North Hollywood. If you see any we missed please call 818 754-1398.
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Walking and meet & greet is fine but not enough. If Tamar had run a phone bank she could have probably overcome Essel's advantage in AVs. Looks like an anti-Krekorian vote that Galatzan should have pulled.
Louie had no money and ran a great phone op. He came within 500 votes of Nury who had $1 million of Villar's money and the unions.
It sounds like Tamar just made some bad choices. As did most of the candidates.
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Comments are being posted in reverse order now? What the deal? Lemme delete since they don't make sense now.
Higby what's up with Charlie? Is he a retard?
359=phil genderjane
You're picking on Charlie becuz why, he is polite and refers to people as Mr. or Miss?
I know for certain that there many people in Sunland-Tujunga who are in the entertainment industry and wouldn't think of voting form anyone who is not. Especially one who claims they will bring back the industry to it's former luster. Those people were only focused on their jobs.
"The Walter Moore Debacle?"
Puh-lease!
Cindy Montanez would have won the whole damn race!!!!
Are you crazy!!!! Cindy Montanez? She wouldnt even take the Latino areas , if there are any.
I hear she is helping out a candidate in San Gabriel area, Monica Garcia (not school board member). The same Monica Garcia that was let go from the Mayor's office. The same Monica that worked for developer Murello who made and lost millions on LAUSD land.
Michael is right Walter.
Your arrogance overrode your common sense. Assuming you possessed any to begin with.
My conversations with several people who supported you early on all confirmed it.
I think Higby is giving you too hard of a time however you completely failed in your campaign.
Walter is sorta like Herpes, he really never goes away for good.
Tamar is endorsing Krekorian.
"Paul is in deep trouble. Based on his own poll, Chris has all the momentum having come from 3% all the way to 29%. This is Greuel - Cardenas II only Paul will have less money and more to overcome in terms of people hating on Suckramento."
September 23, 2009 1:03 PM
Love the Essel staff spin, did Essel's own poll not have her leading Krekorian 16-15 a month out?
According to Essel's own poll, Paul has picked up 20 points to her 12 over the last month of the election.
Candidates have to take down their signs. It's the law. If they don't, the city will remove them and bill the candidate. It happens every election. Someone could have fun with a PRA to find out who the negligent people have been.
5:09 p.m. says: "Candidates have to take down their signs."
That's like saying "people HAVE to pick up after their dogs."
There are still signs up in my area for the last SCHOOL BOARD race, COMMUNITY COLLEGE race, the CD1 COUNCIL race, PRESIDENTIAL race -- you name it.
That's something right out of the old Monty Python "Bruces" sketch.
"Faculty rule #2: 'No maltreating the Abos (aborigines) in any way. . . "if there's ANYONE watching.")
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_f_p0CgPeyA&feature=fvst
Yes, yes, little one, go on believing. Candidates have to take down their signs. It's the law. Meanwhile, you could pile the floor of the Staples Center a foot high with the ones still dangling from fences all over the city for the last 5-10 years.
You also didn't mention that it's ILLEGAL for them to have put them up in any public space in the FIRST place. I don't recall that slowing anyone down even a little.
1:03 - Concessions? What the Hell are you talking about?
Mary ran to try to put a crack in the Oligarchy. Is it so hard to believe that Mary Benson is an honest person? Well, believe it.
Would Essel put in writing that she will save the Verdugo Hills Golf Course?
Would she put in writing that she would fight to establish a moratorium on all new development until the services and infrastructure problems are solved?
Would she put in writing that she would fight against further CRA projects?
Would she put in writing that she would fight to save the watershed, stop the gouging of residents via the water, electric, sewage, and sanitation rates?
Would she put in writing that she will look for new sources of water?
Would she put in writing that she would really be transparent in all city business?
For that matter would Krekorian?
Mary would have!
It's hard to tell who that map is worse news for. Objectively, I think it's Krekorian. The fact that Essel won all the "Sizzler precincts" along Foothill that Benson didn't means that Benson drew at least as many votes from Essel as from Krekorian up there. And of course Essel will win the Tamar precincts. Bottom line is, if the election is mostly among those who voted yesterday, Essel will draw much closer.
If she gets another $500K to blow and can keep cashing in voters at $80/vote.
I don't think it's a shoe-in at all that "Essel will win the Tamar precincts." It was Shallman who came out nastiest and hardest on Tamar, for the mailer, saying "this is corruption, pure and simple," as reported by his lackey Maeve Reston at the Times. She just may hate him enough to throw her support to Paul. What has Essel done for her? Krakorian was also sought out for a quote by Maeve, but wasn't as gratuitously going after the worst soundbite.
Essel's saving grace is that as a person she's nice, not nasty, let Shallman handle that role for her, the good cop/ bad cop routine. Paul has to be careful not to look like the mean male as he goes after her. However, he's a very mild-mannered type so that's not likely a problem.
6:30
Krekorian won the Foothill Blvd, Precincts. Essel won the stuff away from the Boulevard.
Look at the map one more time, I think your wrong.
doug mcIntyre is going back to new York to do a show that precedes Imus in the Morning on ABC radio (KFAN New York)
Maybe Zooma can get a job, even if he couldn't get an endorsement.
It would be great for all concerned, no?
Peter Tilden will take over and endorse his friend, Chris Essel!!!
Forget I said anything about Benson and influence. She "won" one of those precincts with a whopping 26 votes, to 24 for Essel and 20 for Krekorian. Her top precinct count was 69 votes.
But wait, maybe that was impressive. This is really amazing, at least to me: NO CANDIDATE GOT MORE THAN 100 VOTES IN ANY PRECINCT. Closest was Sanchez with 98 in the precinct he won. This election cost over a million dollars! They could have had a quarter of the precincts.
And Essel? I can't find a single precinct in which she got more than 37 votes. And she lost that one to Benson almost 2-1!
6:03
The reason I mentioned that it's illegal for the candidates to post signs is because of the second part of my posting that the City will remove the signs and bill the offenders. If you asked the City, you could find out who, the Mayor maybe?, failed to take down their signs, and who is still deadbeating the City on paying their charges.
The biggest flaw in these post-primary analyses is that they are assuming that the same pot of voters will show up for the runoff election. All this talk about who will gets whose voters becomes more insignificant if either of the two candidates are able to turnout any part of the 89% of the voters who sat out the primary.
The analyses of where the votes for each candidate came from would have more meaning if each of the areas were canvassed equally by each candidate. But they weren't. It's important to know where each candidate focused their efforts, and then to look how effective those efforts were.
Ironic how doug's going east without having said anything as recently as the night of the election - without endorsing anyone - just after he's been speaking out about realizing that he got suckered into endorsing someone who's not only all Laura Chick and Greuel says he is, a liar and demagogue who defrauded everyone to get their votes, but an all-out pathologically unrestrained obsessive-compulsive bully. Who's misusing his post to
"threaten to ruin" paid and unpaid people who don't do what the says. Coincidence, maybe? Who's Tilden? Is he a rightwing nutjob or possibly moderately sane?
You give "props" to The Foothills Forum however, you do not list it in the Neighborhood Blogs area. Why?
If Mailander can't find the precincts where Essel got more than 40 votes than he is much more drunk than usual. Drink water dude
9:02
You should check what your drinking.
If Mailander can't find the precincts where Essel got more than 40 votes than he is much more drunk than usual. Drink water dude.
I'll say. Maybe you can help me out and give us the numbers to the ones in which she got more than 40 votes.
This should help:
City clerk precinct vote chart
What are you talking about? Krekorian, Sanchez, and Benson all posted precincts with 100+ votes.
Out of the 3 precincts that Benson carried, she got 108 votes in one, 54 in another, and 10 in the third.
That's not very impressive to me in a community of 60,000.
I was talking about walk-in precinct votes, and not counting mailed in votes.
Paul has to be prepared for the sleazy, outright lies that Shallman will throw at him. He should immunize himself ahead of time,
before the shit hits the fan on Friday before election.
Foothills Forum is not a blog.
Speaking of signs, Essavi had more signs than votes. What an amateur.
Yep, she's an amateur. nuch was an amateur as well, remember?
Amateurs get elected; Pols go back to whence they came, Sacramento.
Jack, do you agree?
If Tamar throws her support to Paul, he wins for sure. She didn't have a mail or tv presence, so didn't reach the folks who don't go to debates or know her. Essen benefited from the Times slanted endorsement, but with Jim Newton the Shallman-John Roberts lackey booted out, it's one less of their lackeys to count on. Score point for Paul.
Tamar could have one and should have, too bad she didn't run a campaign.....
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