What to Expect in '09: Taking It To Our (New) Leader

January 20th, 2009. The swearing in of the United States' first (sorta) African-American POTUS is imminent. The world is heralding the new dawn. Enjoy while it lasts everyone... because 2009 is going to be a bitch!

The President-elect may hail from a half-African heritage, but he is far from 'the black guy,' that mere conversation raising the specter of Colin Powell, circa 1988, who, despite appearances, is not sorta-black, but actually, completely 100% African-American... from Harlem! Surprise! And really, doesn't anyone else consider 'Bubba' Clinton the first black president anyway? Obama's really led at least a semi-charmed life compared to either of them.

As that relates to our current financial mess: don't expect (as a shocking number of people seem to) that Obama will push for slave reparations, welfare, or any of those other cliched, poverty perpetuating implied-substitutes for '40 acres and a mule.' Expect the more naturally centrist Obama to justify the Bill Clinton and JFK comparisons while taking heed of the Jimmy Carter warnings. Expect accountability as well as user fees and other forward-thinking measures in lieu of increased taxes. Expect a renewed national dialogue about free trade agreements and the North American Union. Expect his economic team, comprised of mostly moderate, non-partisan global tycoons, to run America as if she were a business, and with any luck, a very profitable one.

Taxes are always a sticky issue whenever a Democrat is elected to the executive, and fear and paranoia run rampant. Contrary to the plentiful selective interpretations in circulation, only those making over $250,000 a year potentially have to pay a little more, and probably only temporarily. To those very lucky few who make this kind of coin, this will likely not necessitate a change in lifestyle, but will likely go to help a working single mom pay for day care - so they can come to work for you!

And remember, unemployment is still rising. Is it because taxes are too high as so many cry? Of course not: thanks to Dubya, the tax climate for business has been highly favorable for years, not to mention that some companies (oil companies come immediately to mind) have been seeing record profits. If you think Obama is a monster for considering higher taxes on the rich, remember that the only thing worse than Robin Hood is Uncle Scrooge, especially in a time of an ever-widening class-gap.

The Dow is hovering around 8500 points, a level unseen since the dawn of the Bush era. What will Obama do about it? I suspect nothing. Yeah, that's right. Nada. The memory of the American people is short indeed as we collectively forget every 4-8 years that the market regularly holds its breath in the downtime between administrations, just as it did after 9/11 (prompting Shopper-in-Chief Bush to encourage the American people to blow money at the mall in defiance of terrorism... ahh, sayonara Bushisms - I hardly knew ye!). It's natural and normal. Expect the new president to take a hands-off approach to the markets. It might be a bit of a cold war between business and policymakers for the first month or so, and what happens next will depend on who strikes first. Will energy speculators and other market bullies run rampant again or will the administration stare them down once and for all? Will policy turn against business and cause investor panic or will consumer confidence somehow rise? Stay tuned on this one. Only time will tell.

Integrity, honor, and habeus corpus will all be making plenty of appearances in 2009 as Leon Panetta takes over at the CIA and Eric Holder, a Deputy Attorney General under President Clinton, fights for, and ultimately wins, the big job at Justice. Gone are the days when torture is used arbitrarily to determine whether or not a foreign detainee even has any intel. I mean, isn't taking soldiers out of terrorist networks in and of itself an effective way to disrupt them? Remember, we don't need to do the impossible and kill all of the world's bad guys to win the War on Terror, we simply have to keep them running, and that's really all we can do. Coincidentally, this reasonable strategy was ignored in the brouhaha leading up to the invasion of Iraq, and ultimately the recent resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan and hostilities between India and supposed anti-terror ally Pakistan.

What of Israel and Palestine? Remember when the so-called 'conventional wisdom' predicted that Obama would bail on Israel? Well he won't... at least no moreso than Bush 43, who, like many of his Republican predecessors, made no real major commitments to the cause, acting more like a steward of the status quo only to dump the problem on 'the next guy.' Obama is the next guy, and I'm inclined to believe that the President-elect isn't particularly happy about the flaming pile of dog shit that's been dumped on his front lawn. Prediction? On Israel, Obama will 'stay the course' in the face of a probable prodding to defend Israel by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Will Obama be a good president? I think we'll know the answer to that within 100 days as his ideals and mettle will be put to the test - the efficacy of many of his proposals realized or at least moving towards becoming so. With all the talk of hope, justice, and the American way (which is what in 2009?) throughout the campaign, Obama has set the bar particularly high in the direst of circumstances. Is it better to burn out or to fade away?

That was a question I've been asking myself a lot during my self-imposed blog silence of the last 6 weeks. I've decided against both... and here I am again. Welcome to 2009.

SMS