Battle Shapes Up in 21st Senate District
Last week we took a look at the likely to be bruising Democratic primary battle for the 25th State Senate seat between Assembly members Fran Pavley and Lloyd Levine. A similarly charged race is shaping up in the 21st district seat currently held by Jack Scott. Former Assembly members Carol Liu and Dario Frommer each hope to be the Democratic standard bearer.Political observers say that the race should be evenly matched between Liu and Frommer, however California Progress Report highlights a poll by EdVoice that shows Frommer has an uphill battle:
However, a recent survey commissioned by EdVoice indicates that reality does not line up with conventional wisdom.Your thoughts?
Liu currently holds a commanding 22-point lead over Frommer, receiving 45 percent of the vote compared to 23 percent for Frommer. The remaining 33 percent are undecided, which is actually a small number for a legislative district in Los Angeles County.
A few key elements highlight Liu’s strength entering this contest:
• Liu has a much stronger base in her former Assembly District than Frommer does in his. Among voters in the 44th Assembly District she once represented, Liu garners an astounding 73 – 5 percent margin. Frommer’s lead in his home district (the 43rd Assembly District) is a much more modest 47 – 23 percent advantage. This gives her a solid foundation on which to build support.
• Liu is much better known and more popular than Frommer. More than half the electorate (52 percent) knows Liu, and three times as many voters have a favorable opinion of her (29 percent). Frommer, while not unpopular, has a lot more to do to build his profile in this district. Currently, only one third of voters can identify him (35 percent), and he receives just 15 percent favorable ratings.
• Support for Liu goes beyond any gender gap. While women favor Liu heavily in the initial vote (48 percent, compared to 22 percent for Frommer), men also give Liu a large advantage, with Liu receiving 42 percent support to Frommer’s 23 percent. Liu’s strength among both men and women bodes very well for her candidacy.
Posted by Mayor Sam @ 4/24/2007 12:15:00 AM
26 Comments:
Dario is going to get his sorry ass handed to him on a platter...the 44th AD covers most of that district so he's going to need to raise a shit load of cash to try and up his name ID. Considering all the favors he cashed in to get his butt-buddy quintero elected to replace him in the 43rd (and lost by a landslide!), not likely he can compete.
Dario knew that he had lost any chance at a seat in the State Senate around 9:30 pm, June 6, 2006.
By losing both of the elections that matter in the Senate race - the 44th with Portantino over Peterson-More, and his own 43rd with Krekorian over Quintero - he locked himself out of having any political support from incumbent state legislators.
In addition, Dario screwed himself with the growing Armenian population in Glendale and Burbank. This is a population of voters that he should have been nurturing for the 6 years of his legislative career, but instead he disrespected their political leadership and repeatedly snubbed folks like Krekorian. So, even in his own backyard he is going to have an active opposition. Hardly the kind of thing that a smart politician would do.
Fortunately for Dario he has a great job with a pricey lawfirm. He can talk about running and attempt to throw his weight around, but he is nearly as forgotten as Scott Wildman.
nicely said Bobo, right on target
73 - 5 !?!
She is beating him 73 - 5 in the 44th?
Holy Landslide Batman!
The key with a race like this is simple: Whichever candidate does a better job holding on to their own base voters will win.
All the outlying areas will more-or-less split, and even if one candidate won the outlying areas by big margin, say 15%, the fact that it is only 20% of the district means that this gap only has a 3% overall impact on the race. (had to bust out my mad calculator skillz for that one!)
So, look closely. Which candidate will do better in their base?
And there's your answer.
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I saw Dario and Ricardo Monroy cruising West Hollywood last weekend with Art Torres and Jose Huizar....
Don’t know why people need to lower themselves to inane/homophobic insults hurled at Dario and his political allies. Lest we forget that Dario Frommer was the Majority Leader, chair of the Health Committee, and a potentially valuable legislator with all the “health reform” talk in Sacaramento nowadays.
It is a shame that good Democrats get elected to this district then are trashed like Wildman and Frommer after they are termed out. What is it about this district? Do they need to go back to electing Republicans in order to develop some Democratic Unity?
Democratic unity? Go fuck yourself 9:35. Frommer was the most divisive and arrogrant legislator the 43rd has had for a long time. He constantly triedto divide the democratic party in the 43rd. When the Glendale Young Dems didnt endorse him, he started his own young dems group. What kind of shit is that?
Fuck dario in the eye socket and fuck you for being his apologist.
Some powerful guy he was, couldnt even get slime-ball quintero elected to replace him.
Higby --
Where's the 25th Senate District again? You mean Ed Vincent's seat?
Wow, Anonymous. Something I said must have really hit a nerve.
I do appreciate that you were able to make your comments without the homophobia of the other poster, and I understand your point that Dario didn’t play nice in the district with the insiders. Many people have suggested that he was a better Sacramento legislator than a District representative, but he did get stuff done.
Glendale/Burbank voters largely don’t know about what he did with some Young Democrats club, or which political consultants he aligned with, or even who he supported in the last Assembly campaign.
But they do seem prepared to put him on a shelf with Wildman and forget about him. That is sad given how successful he was as an Assemblymember (not any Joe Legislator gets to be Majority Leader). It’s not like he was part of any scandal that made it into the public consciousness. He was just unfortunately serving a district that uses their representatives then throws them overboard.
Dario is not running. This seat is Carol Liu's.
Yes, the information here is indeed old.
Dario is not running. Liu likely commissioned that poll to have this precise effect.
Why leave a $1m a year gig at Mayer Brown for a shot at a State Senate seat?
The seat is Mrs. Peevey's.
Dario has hired Hacopian to do his race.
7:09 Dario is not a guy to get into the gutter. He has no reason to hire the likes of Hacopian.
why would dario hire the consultant who beat the shit out of quintero (dario's boy) in the last Assembly election?
hacopian would never work for dario
gorgonzola cheese is great, i love it.
what what in the butt
The biggest mistake I see here is anyone putting Wildman in a closet or on a shelf. I'd like to hear some of his wrong doings. I admit I only know the good things he's done.
Dario is a good guy and a good legislator. He did an excellent job as Majority Leader.
But Carol has a husband who can finance the race out of his hip pocket, so he'll sit this one out.
Don't worry, he'll be back in politics, just not this time.
By the way, his associate at Mayer Brown is none other than Huggy Boy himself, Mayor Sam's main man. I guess no one has drafted him to be City Attorney, huh? Another smart pass.
April 24, 2007 10:19AM
You like to use the F word often. Why don't you bend over and I will give you a good F.
April 25, 2007 7:25 PM
Go fuck yourself! how bout them apples you fucking fuck!
Does the word fuck bother you? Maybe its because you've never fucked!
FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK
by the way, FUCK
April 25, 2007 9:10PM
SHHHHHHH, you are inturupting the FUCK I'am giving your MAMA she is pretty sweet and tasty, yummy.
April 25, 2007 9:10PM
If I never Fucked how do you think you were born, you jackass.
10:45 and 10:56
I fucked both your mothers in the ass then made them suck my cock - they are like dogs, they eat their own shit.
fuck you in the eye socket bitches
12:08AM
The only dog that eats their own shit is you.
You are a reject with no life and you are a joke in the political world. Your own MAMA ignores you and prostiutes herself to financialy support your sorry ass political career. You are a weak cheap Democrat.
Your mothers mouth is full of my sweet cream she charges .50 cents a blow.
ZUMA DOGG IS GAY?????????
Wow, do we need to call in Dr. Phil?
Setting aside the angry missives,
it's interesting that Edvoice didn't release the actual poll questions -- I suppose if a fluffy push poll is written the right way Satan himself could sound like a family values candidate.
I'm also not sure that having the support of the incumbent legislators is such a big plus in this particular case. Just ask Glendale City Councilmember Rafi Manoukian how having Paul Krekorian's support worked out for him earlier this month. In fairness, Krekorian might have been too busy raising money into his legal defense fund to campaign for his old pal.
At the end of the day, this race isn't even a race yet and as the old saying goes...those in glass houses....
ZUMA DOGG & DR. PHIL ARE GAY??????
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