Alger Leads In Poll
In internal polling conducted by his campaign, Jim Alger is showing a significant lead in his race for the Democratic nomination for the 38th Assembly District.In numbers released by the campaign, a telephone poll of 1000 likely Democratic voters in the District gives Alger 63.8% of the vote. His nearest competitor, Human Services Administrator Lyn Shaw, comes in at 18%. Physician/Administrator Sid Gold pulls 13.6% and Mediator/Arbitrator/Businesswoman Jane F. Lowenthal comes in at 4.6%. The poll is said to have a margin of error of plus or minus four points.
Posted by Mayor Sam @ 4/12/2006 12:09:00 AM
52 Comments:
How can Alger afford polling?
He doesn't have any money, does he?
It doesn't suprise me that Alger is leading, Shaw hasn't spent any money yet and he has been all over the district.
It is interesting that Shaw is even a blip on the screen given that the average voter doesn't know her.
Also, one would believe that the front page story on Alger in Santa Clarita and his non-stop coverage in the Daily News has got to help on name recognition.
Not to mention I have seen Alger's lawn signs beginning to pop up in Simi Valley. Sounds like that is all that poll would reflect, name recognition as opposed to policy discussion.
Of course that is what wins races, name recognition so the question is can he hold it when his opponents unleash their cash or has he spent what little he has and peaked too early?
Does not matter, a dem will never win, i repeat a dem will never win!!!!
So why does it matter how far ahead he is he will mess up sooner or later, and i want to know who they polled, the council, the renters who are fighting the home owners.....
Alger began tracking polls some time ago. If done internally they aren't expensive. Assuming the demographics are chosen, (Matt Waggner is his field ops guy and a whiz at that stuff) all you need is someone to make the calls and he has been phone banking for months.
I am curious if the numbers are changing (I assume they are). I would also be worried about any opponent showing 18% if he was the only candidate campaigning. That means that the floor for his opponent is 18% while in all liklyhood Jim is at his ceiling.
If Alger drops 10-15 points once his opponents figure out there is a campaign going on and begin getting in front of voters the primary could be anyones game.
Of course he could be so far ahead that the other side can't catch up but I would never take that bet.
12:11 your an idiot. if the poll was of 1000 voters, then it would take alot more then his council to sway numbers that far (which is probably why they did 1000) That is a less scientific but more reliable (and less expensive) way to poll.
11:37 anon - I don't think any of the dem candidates have much money which is why they polled internally.
He probably had volunteers call 1000 high propensity voters (actually probably called more but you would only count those that respond) and simply ask who they would vote for. That is the easiest way to do it.
I am sure it was slightly more structured than that but with decent demographic people and a good adviser it doesn't take much to put a poll together. I am just impressed he bothered to do it. It does demonstrate he is remaining "plugged in" to the district while here we are at less then 55 days to the election and no other candidate is doing much of anything.
I do agree with the previous poster that Alger risks peaking before he would want to if Shaw gets up a good slate mailer campaign, which she is going to do. But Alger has been cultivating these voters for a year so my money goes on Jim winning, but not by that large of a margin.
Oh look... Alger made Mayor Sam again... Someone go wake up Mitch and Hilfenhaus so the Alger bash-a-thon can get started post haste.
I'm assuming that 68% is among voters with a preference. The vast majority of people I talk to have no idea what AD they live in, who represents them in Sacramento and Washington, let alone who is running in a primary leading up to a quixotic general election.
That being said, the 68% number doesn't surprise me. Except for the CDP vote that's about the margin he's been getting in his endorsement votes.
12:19
Ta very much. I am fascinated with polling, but this particular one was not my doing.
Also, Lyn has spent some money, as I understand.
12:10 - Name ID is right, name ID plus association with certain issues in the aim of course. ("The guy on the sign" isn't as good as "the guy who stopped that Walmart".)
That said, I wanna thank Mayor Sam for misspelling Smythe's name wrong all the time :)
12:11 - I guess that means we won't be getting a donation from you, eh? Who knows, maybe even if he doesn't mess up we'll lose. But the likely Republican nominee is pretty far out there on all sorts of issues, and we don't intend to lose: it'll be close either way.
12:33 - If Alger were "peaking" with 63% of the Democratic vote, we would fold up our tents right now. Lots still to do, pre- and post-primary.
Wow. Jim is really kicking ass. Less than 20% of "likely voters" are undecided. That is amazing. And when you put that into context. Apad and Cindy M. have over 35% undecided in their latest polls. They have both spent several hundred thousand dollars. Sent out more than one million pieces of mails. And had volunteers walk and call thousands of voters. They must be doing something wrong. Jim Alger is either a political genius - watch out Parke Skelton, Larry Levine, John Shallman - or he is just so completely full of it that he is making numbers up.
Sam! Stop drinking the Kool-aid.
What has Lyn spent money on? The only stuff I've seen from her is photocopied information packet that wasn't very professional looking and looked like it was produced in Word Pad. Oh, and the donation envelope she gave me (which I didn't return). I guess she's saving up for a slate mailer. Jim H is probably going to get his union to spend some bucks as well.
Jim Alger has glossy fliers and bumper stickers. He may not have any money but at least the money he's spent are for things that give the appearance that he has more money than he does, and lends more legitimacy to his campaign to those people who don't pay as much attention as we do here.
Its all about name ID. Why do you think those brain dead little old ladies in Studio City keep voting for Howard Berman? Cause they have his potholders. If Alger has this high a name ID, that's as good as money in the bank.
I got some info on that poll... here were the details...
Democratic Primary 38th AD Poll
Total Calls: 6264
Total Respondents: 1000
Target: Democratic 100% voters in last 5 election cycles
Precincts: rotated/random
Question: “Which of the following candidates for the 38th California State Assembly District would you vote for if the Election were held today?”
Candidates names and ballot designation were rotated evenly.
RESULTS:
Jane F. Lowenthal
Mediator / Arbitrator / Businesswoman
Total Responses: 46
Overall Percentage: 4.6%
Jim Alger
Senators’ Field Representative
Total Responses: 638
Overall Percentage: 63.8%
Sid Gold
Physician/Administrator
Total Responses: 136
Overall Percentage: 13.6%
Lyn Shaw
Human Services Administrator
Total Responses: 180
Overall Percentage: 18.0%
So undecideds were specifically eliminated from this particular poll. This was basically a Name ID and 1st impression from Ballot Designation poll.
Since neither side has overwhelming cash on hand I would expect that these numbers might stick.
9:10
Alger isn't a Senator's Field Rep anymore. He was for 3 months a few years ago.
"non-stop coverage in the Daily News"
Puh-leez.
Very true, actually it was 6 months (Feb - July) but he can legally use it.
Smart move on his part.
As for the Daily News... what other candidate for the 38th was in the DN 3 times last week alone?
Very true, actually it was 6 months (Feb - July) but he can legally use it.
Smart move on his part.
As for the Daily News... what other candidate for the 38th was in the DN 3 times last week alone?
> Total Calls: 6264
> Total Respondents: 1000
If it took 6264 calls to get 1000 people with an opinion then that's a response rate of 16%. So the math works out to:
Alger 10.2%
Shaw 2.9%
Gold 2.2%
Lowenthal 0.7%
Undecided/no response 84.0%
(numbers rounded)
It's still anyone's race though I agree that Alger has the upper hand.
Smyth, Smythe or Smith or whatever his name is should be concerned. Alger is getting heavy play in Santa Clarita. As someone who has been active in the area for some time, when the soccer moms out there here Cameron is for no abortion no how, they move to Jim.
Smyth:
# Believes marriage should only be between a man and a woman
9:48 That is true but I have never heard of a poll that includes those that didn't respond. I would like to see what the undecided number is.
This poll forced respondents to make a choice, presumably the same choice they would make in the ballot box given that they are 100% voters.
What is more important, that no-one is talking about, is that if Alger has the precinct breakdown he will know where his voters are and where he needs to shore up the vote. That gives him an amazing advantage in the primary. As for the general, that is a whole other kettle of fish. I do agree with the poster who said that soccer moms aren't going to like Smyth's anti-choice platform one bit. Even Richmond had the common sense to support freedom of choice. Then again he is a Doctor and believes in science.
Smyth makes the right wingers look moderate.
From what I heard, the polling was an in-kind contribution from some firm back east.
Nice
A handy Sm*th primer:
Smyth = Cameron Smyth, who Jim Alger will presumably face for the 38th AD in November.
Smith = Greig Smith, who Jim Alger will presumably face for the 12th Council District in 2007.
Jim has discounted all rumors at his running for City Council in 2007. He has said he is considering 2011 when the seat vacates.
10:33 anon - The speculation that Jim is running for city council in 2007 rests soley in the candyland minds of CD 12 staffers.
I wish he would, but he won't.
Mayor Sam drinks the whole damn pitcher of Kool-Aid. Hell, it seems as if Mayor Sam drinks anything that Alger puts before him.
Wait until Alger loses, MS will not post for about a week. He and Alger will be in bed crying together...LOL
and Mitchell keeps drinking that rotgut he is known to consume in mass quanities
Alger is leading because he has been working on issues in the community for years. Shaw-Hilfenhaus just showed up on the scene... well actually they haven't arrived yet.
Look at her literature.
- She has so few accomplishments she actually states that "speaking before City Council" was an accomplishment!
Alger has gone before council dozens of times.
- She doesn't even have a photo of her ANYWHERE! (You can draw your own conclusions as to why that is)
Basically, her entire "campaign" is "I am a lefty Democrat and these people support me so you should to." Oh, let's not forget her "supporters" bashing the hell out of Alger every chance they get.
She doesn't have one ounce of substance and can't point to one accomplishment in her life. Even with the party, she was supposed to raise $1,500.00 a year and she raised NOT ONE DIME!
I have been in party politics for nearly 5 years and I have yet to see or hear of one thing Lyn Shaw-Hilfenhaus has ever LEAD to any conclusion... let alone a successful one.
She picks up many titles, but then does NOTHING with them.
The fact that a community activist who just showed up on the radar of the party in the last year or two could match her vote for vote in the California Democratic Party pre-endorsement conference tells you how few accomplishments she really has. Now consider nearly HALF of her votes came from her and her family, which means Alger actually BEAT her!
That doesn't say much for her at all.
Alger has been running a pretty strong campaign for some time now. He needs to hope he doesn't run out of steam on the last lap.
A handy "to/two/too" primer for all you proud LAUSD grads:
to = preposition - connects one thought/phrase to another - DO NOT end a sentence with this word.
two = more than one, less than three
too = also
They are not interchangeable.
I guess I have two go back too skool two figure out how 2 use the word too.
LAUSD ya know.
Look, if the best you can do is check Mayor Sam for grammatical errors (which are usually based on shortcutting than actual ignorance of the English language) then you either need to get a life or go become a school teacher.
Alger = Mayor Sam
Get The Picture
The Poll is just another chance for Alger to make noise. Just like the call for a boycott. Did his staffs internal poll and his call for a boycott really accomplish anything but to pump up a shell of a candidate who has really accomplished nothing.
"I fought against the DWP and Walmart", that's it. These accomplishments make a candidate?
Still waiting for the Sunshine Canyon plan.
Still waiting for a transportation plan.
Still waiting to see how he would pay for univeral health care.
Still waiting to see how he would pay for expanded after school programs.
Empty shell of a candidate making noise without taking a real stand on anything.
No DemocRat has any chance in this race. Not even a retarded one. I love that you guys waste so much time on this useless race, and not targeting other districts where Demoncrats can actually build a base. You guys are so smart.
Nice blogging Stewart!
anon (of course)3:12
"I fought against the DWP and Walmart", that's it. These accomplishments make a candidate?
No dumb-ass but it is two things more than any other candidate has done...
Still waiting for the Sunshine Canyon plan.
He released the plan weeks ago - it involves charging each household 1 dollar more to cover the cost of moving trash to Avanol.
Still waiting for a transportation plan.
He has stated repeatedly that he aants corporate tax incentives for companies to encourage commuting as well as rotating hours (like we did after the quake) for companies that don't need to be open 9-5 (maybe 7-3 ect)
Still waiting to see how he would pay for univeral health care.
With a single payer system.
Still waiting to see how he would pay for expanded after school programs.
By streamlining waste out of the current system
You really should pay attention more!
Now, be sure to shoot down each idea here as fast as you can. But at least HE HAS IDEAS. What have we heard FROM ANY OTHER CANDIDATE???
NOTHING!
Anon 3:12 ***BREAKING NEWS***
CANDIDATE ISSUES PRESS RELEASE TO GET PRESS ATTENTION!
No shit sherlock, it is called CAMPAIGNING! Perhaps some other candidate in the 38th migh decide to do so some time soon?
3:27 your crude referal to individuals who suffer from mental illness shows how decrepid an individual you truly are.
You always get on and whine about an Alger Post while saying you don't care.
Well, here is a clue brainiac...
if Alger's picture is next to a post, or the post says "...ALGER..." THEN DON'T CLICK ON IT YOU DAMN FOOL!
he kinda has a point.
Here is a good story of Greig Smith putting his money (ok, his staffs money) where his mouth is...
According to financial filings by the Smyth Camp Phyllis I sold out the valley for a buck Winger and Jimmy I got fired from being a cop Dillinger are both listed as contributors.
Both of these characters are on Greig Smiths staff.
Why do people have to personally attack someone instead of debating them on the issues or what their vision is? The people who attack are immature and show how desperate and scared they are and having nothing substantial to compete with. Alger is well known citywide because of his fight against issues affecting all tax payers not just his community. He has a really good shot at winning.
Alger conducts his own poll and shows a lead - shocking! Sort of like loaning money you can't keep to spike your money totals. And you don't pay for Universal Healthcare with Single Payer unless you are an idiot that doesn't understand the financing system like Alger. Keep up the slogans without substance, the truth is out there and getting closer everyday.
6:08 Anon, because they are childish and their candidate has yet to speak one word about ANY issue at all.
Can't have a debate when Jim is the only one in the room. So far, with 54 days to the primary he is the only one with any plan at all.
Archie, I think you mean Smith. Zine will be termed out in 09.
As they say in Texas "all hat and no cattle"
Alger = Mayor Sam
Get The Picture
LOL That is funny... you said "if Lyn Shaw contributes". The only thing she contributions she makes is food down her piehole.
Why isn't her photo on any of her literature (ok her union printed kinko copied literature)?
Because then people would see that she is one hostile looking individual and that is putting it nicely.
If Mayor Sam and Jim Alger were the same people, how could MS suck JA's cock so much? Duh people.
My mistake...
Jim Alger + Mike O'Connell = Mayor Sam
Your an idiot
well... let's see here... alger didn't landslide his democratic opponents so either 1) his poll was amateurish bullshit or 2) he's a big fat liarhead...
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