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Wednesday, January 19, 2005

Mayoral Endorsements** - They Both Lose

endorsementOne of the more sought after endorsements in LA politics after the County Federation of Labor is the County Democratic Party, and tonight we learn it's decision.

The top two players in this saga play-out a rematch from four years ago. In that fight, Villaraigosa out-campaigned Hahn to win the party endorsement. Hahn has had non-stop problems with his democratic party relationship since. He was shunned by Davis and the state party in that battle as well. As payback, you will note that he held off support for Davis through his travails and has continued to infuriate the party players in other vindictive schemes over his grudge. Regardless, this battle is different, and he has no choice but to play nice. The only other blip on the radar is Hertzberg, who has done his due diligence and made his calls, but has never had the grassroots support in his corner, and it is unlikely he could ever garner the needed 60% needed of the parties most active and faithful.

This time Hahn has the unions which Villaraigosa had four years ago. This time Hahn is an incumbent who has bent over to every other group who can help him stay afloat, so I'm sure he has done the same yet again in his personal pleas to party delegates this go around.

What's at stake? For Hahn it is yet another feather in his cap against Villaraigosa. For Villaraigosa, it is one of his only last big shots to counter the labor endorsement. For Hertzberg, can he disrupt enough to help play spoiler. In this battle, every vote counts. Can anyone get the needed 60% to land it? That is the question answered tonight. Who has the muscle to grassroots organize the party faithful?

***The vote went down last night and the winner is..... NO ENDORSEMENT ***

Both Hahn and Villaraigosa end up losers, as this is devastating to both. How can an incumbent leader and highest elected democrat in the city not get the party endorsement? How can Villaraigosa the self-professed king of grass roots organizing let Hahn block him. The only winner I see is Hertzberg by default, since he is the only one who didn't get damaged last night. See LA Times and Daily News for more info on the fallout.

30 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said:

No endorsement tonight and that is not good for Antonio.

January 18, 2005 2:46 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Ha!

If you think its a no endorsement than you know nothing.

I think with what Kuwata said about the democrats "laundering money" proves that the Hahn campaign has given up on every Central Committee member tonight.

That statement right there proves Hahn has no campaign strategy -- just wear and tear.

Alarcon thinks he has 30 votes so far -- too bad 7 of them aren't his after the financial reports came out.

Hahn can't clearly track where anyone is -- constantly using his time to call perceived undecided folks when they have committed weeks ago.

Lastly, the Hertzberg campaign not realizing that 80% of their 1st round votes are going to vote for another competitor in the 2nd round. This no endorsement strategy clearly has no legs. These are activists not strategists - and activists endorse.

Alarcon has also been pushing this no endorsement thing around too -- no one is biting except for his daughter who serves as an alternate.


From the Dem King.

January 18, 2005 4:46 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Kuwata's role is to call them like he sees them, just the same way Ace Smith does it for Villaraigosa.

Anyone who doesn't see the hundreds of thousands of dollars that were given to the Democratic Party in 2001 just prior to the Mayoral primary and general election as laundering doesn't know what they are talking about.

This was clearly a way around the ethics commission and it worked. It worked because it was commingled with an existing Dem. Party account and it was washed through that pool of money.

Clever and successful.

January 18, 2005 6:25 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

The Dem King is dead. Dead wrong. It's official. No endorsement. Devastating for Tony V.

January 18, 2005 11:58 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

To Dem King: You are full of it. No endorsement. No endorsement. No endorsement. It's just not the same campaign as it was four years ago for Villaraigosa. Antonio has an incumbent mayor and a recall to contend with this time. I don't think you will be earning much money as a political consultant DEM KING!

January 19, 2005 12:00 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

no endorsement -- wow this is the 2nd time lil jimmy has gone to the party for an endorsement and this is the 2nd time they've rejected him.

For a sitting DEMOCRATIC incumbent mayor this is a huge vote of NO CONFIDENCE.

Poor, poor jimmy the corruption is getting everyone scared.

In today's LA Times kuwata said we can see antonio's base crumbling -- mr kuwata apparently forgot to look behind him and notice that valley voters and african americans (hahn's old base) aren't even in the room anymore. Nice try kuwata at spinning the very wound thats really inflicting your campaign.

sad, sad day for the mayor, but it seems everyday is sad for them.

January 19, 2005 9:32 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

It was a bad night for Villaraigosa. Period. So, let's look at Antonio's situation. 1) Unlike last time didn't get the County Fed endorsement. 2) Unlike last time didn't get the County Dems endorsement. 3) Now facing a Recall. 4) Opinions polls taken on the eastside have a massive number of undecideds (just under 40%). Antonio panicked last August. He should have waited another four years.

January 19, 2005 10:03 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

What a major slap in the face to Tony Villar. He thought he had it all sewn up. He grandstanded talking about things he did years ago and slamming the Mayor of front of the voters last night. What an idiot!!! If they thought so highly of him why didn't he get the endorsement? I'm sure Tony's camp is asking the same question. A "no endorsement" is the same thing the SFV Democratic org. also did and that's the way to go. Word is that this has really devasted little man syndrome Tony Villar. Maybe he should get lifts in those shoes and start acting like a real man.

January 19, 2005 10:03 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Wow. This is a body blow to both Antonio and the Mayor. With Bitter Bernie's campaign coming apart at the seams, it looks like its a Hertzberg-Hahn runoff.

January 19, 2005 11:03 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

The decision hurts Villaraigosa more than anyone in the group mainly because this was part of his base last time. However, it doesn't bode well for the incumbent democratic mayor. Is this devastating for Villaraigosa? No. Setback? Yes, because it certainly would have helped secure a position for him in the run-off. And remember, there's going to be a run-off, which means that the party may get to hold another endorsement vote, but this time without three other dems to choose over.

January 19, 2005 11:23 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

The decision hurts Villaraigosa more than anyone in the group mainly because this was part of his base last time. However, it doesn't bode well for the incumbent democratic mayor. Is this devastating for Villaraigosa? No. Setback? Yes, because it certainly would have helped secure a position for him in the run-off. And remember, there's going to be a run-off, which means that the party may get to hold another endorsement vote, but this time without three other dems to choose over.

January 19, 2005 11:25 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

The SFV Biz Journal had a poll last month that had Bitter Bernie ahead but now Hertzberg is way out there.

January 19, 2005 11:27 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

In the CD11 race, Bill Rosendahl got over 80 percent of the vote for that endorsement.

In CD5, Jack Weiss got the nod on the second ballot. Vahedi had enough votes to keep him under 60 percent on the first ballot.

January 19, 2005 11:36 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I am confused, Hahn is happy to not receive his party's endorsement. Isn't he a sitting DEMOCRATIC incumbent mayor of the 2nd largest city in America?

Last night Jim Hahns only line was that he is like his daddy. Wellll his daddy wouldn't have turned his back on African Americans like lil jimmy. His Daddy wouldn't insult the Adrican American community during Black history month (dumping parks). His daddy would insure that more South LA residents served on the city's boards and commissions as oppose to lil jimmy making sure that the good ol boy network is still in power.

As for the Valley (hahn's other base) i don't see how he comes back to them after calling folks who cared about their neighborhoods the equivalent to a shady vegas casino during the secession campaign. I don't think snubbing the valley -- is something his daddy would ever do.

As for Antonio - polling from 3 weeks ago has Antonio's favorables in CD 14 at 80% his unfavorables at 13%, yet these recall loonies need to get 15% of the voters to sign a recall petition -- not happening.

As for 40% being undecided, this is good news for Antonio, lets be honest every poll has Antonio either tied or in the lead everytime. The fact that Antonio hasn't gotten 40% of the eastside is great considering there is an 80% approval of him, this just means there is more low hanging fruit in the run-off.

Lastly, if the Hahn folks are feeling great with a vote of no confidence from his own party and are trying to spin this as Antonio's base crumbling. Than Hahn needs to look behind him and see that the base he created 4 years ago -- isn't a base, its barely an ant hill.

January 19, 2005 11:44 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

With Hertzberg's commuter bill of rights and his dead on analysis of how Jimmy the Poop has failed miserably on public safety, you got to believe momentum is going Huggy's way.

January 19, 2005 12:54 PM  

Blogger FromDaCheapSeats said:

A vote of no confidence, give me a break. That is good spinning, but the reality is everyone is waiting for a magical, exciting, energetic campaign to step up and take on the Mayor.

We all know the Mayor is boring and so we are not surprised by his boring campaign.

Unfortunately, not one of the challengers has created any buzz regarding their efforts to unseat the Mayor.

Here is a quote from Steve Lopez's article in Sunday's LA Times:

"I don't feel like the city would be in bad hands with any of them," said Fran Grossman, who liked state Sen. Richard Alarcon and City Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa in the debate, while her husband, Joel, gave a thumbs up to Mayor Jim Hahn.

If this sentiment continues, then the Mayor will get re-elected.

January 19, 2005 1:23 PM  

Blogger FromDaCheapSeats said:

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

January 19, 2005 1:26 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I don't think Hahn is happy he didn't get the endorsement of the Democratic Party. He's happy he can stop Antonio from using them again to launder thousands of dollars for his campaign.

Even this is a little bit of a stretch. Antonio's deep pockets from 2001 are not with him this time around. Eli Broad is with Hahn. Riordan is out of it with the Governor. Ron Burkle by himself is not going to go out there and make up for the other two missing.

That's why the Hahn people feel good about blocking the alleged "grass roots" advocate, Antonio.

January 19, 2005 1:29 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Let's not forget this time 4 years ago Antonio had a name ID of 4%.

So when it comes to an energetic campaign -- i think folks need to remember that Angelinos aren't paying attention yet - they won't until the last two weeks. Let's give every campaign (yes even Moore) a chance to prove themselves until two weeks before the election. We all know that everything that happens now is just inside baseball.

January 19, 2005 1:50 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

come on - antonio still got over 50%. this is hardly devastating - the same people that worked for him before will work for him agains.

besides, he only needed the endorsement before because he had no name id - now everbody knows him.

for hahn to mount the effort he did last night and still barely crack 40% of the vote is embarassing.

he'll be lucky to make the runoff.

and hertzberg the winner? he got a grand total of 9 (NINE) votes - 5 less than alarcon, for god's sake.

jimmy hahn should be embarassed. last night, to watch him claim victory for narrowly preventing antonio from getting the endorsement was humiliating.

--fridge

January 19, 2005 2:00 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

come on - antonio still got over 50%. this is hardly devastating - the same people that worked for him before will work for him agains.

besides, he only needed the endorsement before because he had no name id - now everbody knows him.

for hahn to mount the effort he did last night and still barely crack 40% of the vote is embarassing.

he'll be lucky to make the runoff.

and hertzberg the winner? he got a grand total of 9 (NINE) votes - 5 less than alarcon, for god's sake.

jimmy hahn should be embarassed. last night, to watch him claim victory for narrowly preventing antonio from getting the endorsement was humiliating.

--fridge

January 19, 2005 2:01 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Antonio was telling anyone who would listen yesterday all day that he was a shoe in. Yeah right....A shoe in right out the window. I agree victory for Jimmy. If they thought so much of endorsing Antonio 4 years ago then what made them decide not to this time round is what everyone should be asking themselves? Could it possibly be they believe the recall is a very real thing? Could it be they heard those horrible rumors that should be coming out in the next week or two?

January 19, 2005 3:56 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Mayor Sam is the advertisement to the left of this site that says "LA's First Latino Mayor" a paid ad from Villaraigosa's campaign?

January 20, 2005 7:09 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Mayor Sam is the advertisement to the left of this site that says "LA's First Latino Mayor" a paid ad from Villaraigosa's campaign?

January 20, 2005 7:09 AM  

Blogger Chief Parker said:

The ad is placed on our site through the Google AdSense program. The content of the ad box is selected by Google using Google AdWords. Read more about it here:
http://www.google.com/ads/
To answer your question, Both Villaraigosa and Hertzberg pay Google for the ad words and for every click through, and Google pays us if people click on those ads.

January 20, 2005 10:19 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

That's interesting..thank you. Antonio has been saying "he's not the running on race rather for ALL Angelenos," Yet somewhat hypocritical placing this ad...

January 20, 2005 10:26 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

No endorsement from the County Fed, no endorsement from LA County Dems, and no ringing endorsement from the LAT this morning. Antonio has problems.

January 20, 2005 11:32 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Antonio is having real problems isn't he? Raising more money than everyone else since he's entered the race, being first in every poll since he entered the race. I like the fact that the LA Times basis's their energy criticsm on the fact that 3 white guys (sorry for the racial note) Eli, Riordan and i am including Burkle since it was noted in an earlier post.

So if Antonio is having problems -- i think there are other candidates that wish they had his problems rather than theirs.

I find it really funny -- that all four canidates were in Sherman oaks to debate each other last night. A debate whose invitation was issued months ago - hahn says he can't attend because of scheduling issues. Then 2 weeks ago, long after the Sherman Oaks invite the Northeast Dems invites the candidates for Mayor to attend a candidate forum with them for their endorsement. All the candidates send their Reps accept Hahn, who shows up himself. Antonio wasn't able to attend because he accepted the Sherman Oaks invite months in advance, so he sends his wife, who then goes on to clean Mr hahn off the floor.

Hahn ignores the valley (not new) lies about a scheduling conflict when it obviously wasn't a scheduling conflict. Then gets his butt handed to him by Antonio's wife. Lastly, makes a person wonder if the recall was so formiable and folks were really for it, why did these folks (residents and voters in the district) make the choice they made?

Must be a conspiracy, has to be right crazies?

crazy crazy, dum-dums, why do you even wake up in the morning.

January 20, 2005 12:23 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

You back FAT? Where's the list of over 70 neighborhood watches Antonio claims he set up? Where the list of bar owners who are supporting the recall? You promised to deliver the lists FAT. Another broken promise from the Villaraigosa camp.

January 20, 2005 3:59 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

What does it say about the NEDC when they suport a guy who lied to them. According to George Skelton in today's LAT the most damaging questions that can be asked about a politician are: "Can you believe him? Can you trust him? WILL HE KEEP HIS WORD?" Skelton gives an example. That of former Gov. Pete Wilson who promised he wouldn't run for president if voters gave him a second term. You guessed it. He ran and suffered the consequences. Well, Antonio didn't keep his word to the people of the 14th district. And, according to Skelton in relation to Wilson, that's pretty "egregious". And yet the NEDC still endorses Villaraigosa. Fortunately, the NEDC is comprised of less than 1% of the registered voters of CD 14. I think Antonio is gonna be recalled.

January 20, 2005 6:13 PM  

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