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Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Why Whitman Wins Big in November

It’s simple: More volunteer boots on the ground.

Last week’s headlines missed the point. Instead of focusing on the amount of cash Whitman has injected into her campaign, let’s look at more telltale topics like how Meg measures up in traditional voter confidence indicators.

Facts are facts, and these ones are black and white.

Whitman’s grassroots support exceeds that of Jerry Brown in quantifiable benchmark categories like community fundraising and volunteering.

Volunteers are a campaign’s bread and butter, and Meg’s got more than Jerry. Whitman reported 20,000 volunteers donated their time to her cause through the primary. Brown has yet to disclose his number of unpaid workers, suggesting his recruitment efforts have seen less success.

Whitman also maintains a comfortable fundraising edge over Jerry Brown, declaring $1.5 million to Brown’s $1.1 million raised in the first ten days of September. Donating to Whitman is like bringing sand to the beach, as KRLA’s Kevin James pointed out last week, but this hasn’t stopped voters who prefer Whitman to Brown from adding their own checkbooks to her famously well-funded war chest.

Since beginning her bid in 2009, Whitman has earned a considerable grassroots advantage over Brown that goes beyond her own cash.

At the end of the day, money doesn’t buy poll results – which Whitman leads by up to 7 points. And judging by the remarkable grassroots campaign she’s engineered, Meg Whitman knows her cash won’t buy her votes in November.

So let’s set finances aside. In six weeks, Whitman will pull out a comfortable win over Brown because her supporters are sacrificing and engaged in the fight.

That should give Meg more confidence than money can buy.


Anonymous Anonymous said:

One other thing Meg has going for her - she's not Jerry Brown!

She doesn't have a record of raising taxes, increasing unemployment, and appointing judges like Rose Bird.

Meg is not committed to abolishing Prop 13, the only thing that saves Californians from tax and spend democrats.

Good start Ali!

September 21, 2010 6:39 AM  

Anonymous trojan2002 said:

That's a very tame first post.

Whitman wins big?! She'll win, and a republican win in CA is always a big win. BUT, it won't be with spread wider than 4-7%.

And, she's not winning because of her grassroots. That is a contributing factor.

Poizner & Brown campaigned poorly. Poizner was the choice of fringe, but he showed the rest of the state he couldn't get the swing vote.

Brown's problem? Other than being Jerry Brown, he didn't start campaigning until now. He really believed he could win on just his name. He thought he could knock off whitman just as he did Newsome, just by running.

Looking further down the line. Whitman has taken up the mantle of a CA Republican (sorry fringe, but that means moderate on social issues & immigration, while conservative on fiscal issues), so if she fails as governor she will set us back much farther than the supposed republican Arnold did.

Come on Alexandra... get out there with a more substantial post. Prognosticate a Fiorina win. It will happen by a less than 3% spread.

September 21, 2010 6:49 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Higby, I thought you hired a new blogger, not a spokeshole for the billionaire candidate!

September 21, 2010 7:06 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

This crap reads like a damn press release Mayor Sam. Where did you find this hack?

September 21, 2010 7:13 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I think I'm going to throw up now.

September 21, 2010 7:38 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Meg is however anti gay. No experience in govt or voting, shifts positions daily so I guess she is great for the job.

September 21, 2010 7:41 AM  

Blogger Phil Jennerjahn said:

Even though I find her repulsive, I agree that Whitman is going to win. She is committed to the effort and over $100 million of her own money means that she is not in this race to lose.

Plus, Brown has nothing and is nothing.
A career politician in a year of unrest and unease.
And he acted really weird talking about Clinton the other day.

Brown is acting like he wants to lose.

September 21, 2010 7:46 AM  

Blogger Michael Higby said:

From the home office in Oakland, CA here is how Jerry Brown might win...

1. Joe B made a video of him in East LA
2. Suzanne Lewis keeps posting one word statuses on Facebook that say "JERRY"
3. Phil is out there calling Meg Whitman detestable
4. Jerry can get on his knees and grovel for Billy Clinton to drop him a million.
5. Benito will become a regular blogger on Mayor Sam and drive SEO results for Jerry Brown through the roof
6. Linda Ronstadt may make a comeback
7. Saturday Night Live will re-run that 1992 Presidential Star Trek Convention Debate skit turning out the Federation vote
8. David Bowie will release "Sacramento Oddity: Ground Control to Jerry Brown"
9. Some drunken Silicon Valley billionaires donate to Jerry as a goof
10. Meg Whitman gets last minute offer to appear on "Dancing With The Stars"

September 21, 2010 7:56 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Well done, Ali. Interesting insightful pragmatic assessment of MW's chances, based on raw facts: volunteers and fundraising. Add to those remarkable indicators the fact that Meg's right and he's just more of what has run California into the ground already. Welcome, Ali. Looking forward to more of your posts.

September 21, 2010 7:57 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

LOL Good post Michael. I was going to vote for Jerry Brown but when I and a lot of other Latinos saw him standing with the failure Latino politicians at Cal State LA I changed my mind. Guilt by association. If Jerry Brown is dumb enough to not know the politico climate and the back last against our city council members like Cardenas, Alarcon, Huizar, Cedillo, Roybal Allard, Romero, Molina, Reyes, Molina and the rest of the illegal loving supporters then Brown is dumb enough to be out of the loop and clueless. He has lost a lot of the Latino support and we're headed over to the Meg Whitman camp

September 21, 2010 8:02 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

How insightful? What a waste of blog space. And blog space is free. You are still forgetting why people come to this blog.

September 21, 2010 8:10 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Phil Jennerjahn wrote, "Brown is acting like he wants to lose."

Phil oughta know.
He came in LAST PLACE in:
1. The mayor's race
2. Congress
3. City Council, where he refuses to state what his platform is, although the other day he claimed his platform included things that CITY COUNCILMEMBERS CAN'T DO!

Phil, why don't you go back to gambling and stealing URLs, then pledge to give back the URL, and then go back on that promise.

Or are you too busy being booted out of The Westside Republicans?

September 21, 2010 8:44 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I agree with Alexander's conclusion that Meg will win, but I don't see anything particularly new or revealing in her analysis.

We already know she's going to win.

September 21, 2010 8:47 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Phil, please leave the discussion to the adults in the room.

Aren't you late for a poker tournament down in Commerce while the rest of us work and pay taxes?

September 21, 2010 8:51 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Since you're injecting yourself into the discussion Phil, why don't you take this opportunity to tell us how you make money to pay your rent?

Listing yourself as "entertainer" doesn't tell us what specific revenue generating work you do.

If you want our votes, you need to fess up. It's not like the question is going to disappear.

September 21, 2010 8:52 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Higby, why don't you give Aly a chance to defend her own points without your sticking your enormous ass into the discussion. Are you afraid that she can't muster all that "internet radio intellect" to defend her points? GODDAMMIT, THAT'S WHAT'S SO FUCKING ANNOYING ABOUT YOU AND JOE B. IT'S NOT ALWAYS ABOUT THE TWO OF YOU!!!!! When are you going to get that through your thick fucking noggin?

September 21, 2010 8:58 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I think 5 of the first 10 comments are either from Joe or Higby.

September 21, 2010 8:59 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:




September 21, 2010 9:00 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Now I know why Earth's poles suddenly flipped and the weather sucks today: This post is too intelligent for Mayor Sam. Let us all pray that Red Spot will roll out of bed soon and bottlecap this with an illegible, jealous rant about Councilman Huizar so the sun will come out and my iPod will work again.

September 21, 2010 11:16 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Well Meg has a lot going for her without a doubt but those that discount the power and deep pockets of the unions are fools. Though Brown has tangled with the unions before - they understand that he will be much easier to manipulate than Whitman and as 90% of his media has been paid for by the unions so far - expect a battle royale next month.

Remember how Schiff bused in the union members for his "town hall"? Brown will have thousands of paid members bused in for every photo op while Whitman will have to depend on actual supporters showing up.

Ali c'mon now give us something a little more edgy

September 21, 2010 11:27 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

What is it with California? Feinstein, Boxer, Whitman, Fiorina, all this and the best the men can come up with is Jerry and Gavin ???

And when is Southern California going to get into the game? Whre are the Ron Burkles or Rick Carusos? I hope our legacy isn't just Arnold/Maria - - -

September 21, 2010 11:38 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Cooley grandstanding this morning after arresting 8 Bell City 'officials.' All of them appear to be Latinos, and probably democrats too. So how come Joe B. isn't screaming "racism" and accusing Cooley of getting the jump on ole Jerry Brown? Come on Joe, Meg's got this sown up unless you can stir it up a little.

September 21, 2010 11:47 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Brown was afraid to issue warrants for Bell officials until his books could be washed - never a good idea to arrest folks that may be seriously contributors. Also rumor is several of them were working on pleas with the help of several of Browns friends in Calpers -

September 21, 2010 12:19 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

12:19, you are conspiratorial. The actual reason Cooley waited was because he wanted to leak it to the media so the actual people of Bell would be in the uproar they did end up whipping up. Why? To combat "Chief 11:47" comment on them being Latinos.

Appears as though Latinos don't like when Latinos rob them blind, either. (But keep pushing that angle. Because you have been so successful in recent campaign efforts.)

September 21, 2010 1:23 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Great article John [Thomas]!

But I gotta say, patting yourself on the back as Anonymous - 7:57 AM is overdoing it. It's a bit much John.

"Well done, Ali [aka John]. Interesting insightful pragmatic assessment of MW's chances, based on raw facts: volunteers and fundraising. Add to those remarkable indicators the fact that Meg's right and he's just more of what has run California into the ground already. Welcome, Ali [aka John]. Looking forward to more of your posts." ???

Good grief John!

Seriously Thomas, at least try not to make it so blatantly obvious for Christ sake!

September 21, 2010 2:15 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Look out below ya'll! I predict that Ali's [John Thomas'] next blog post will drop soon and this time it'll be a shameless positively fluffy promo piece praising Mattie Fein and opining as to why she is gonna win too! Go ahead John, oops I mean Ali. Get your propagandizing, I mean blogging, on Sista!

September 21, 2010 2:52 PM  

Blogger Michael Higby said:

Warner Chabot looks like a man of the people.

September 21, 2010 3:00 PM  

Blogger Michael Higby said:

Why is it that Mike "The Situation" Gatto is so obsessed with a candidate that he beat by 20 point, in a District gerrymandered like 70% Dummycrat and until maybe a couple days ago none of us even knew whether he was actually running or not?

Gatto makes me laugh. He's even funnier than Lloyd Levine, Bob Blumenthal and Mitchell Englander.

September 21, 2010 3:03 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I'm giving this new blogger 6 weeks tops before she's gone.

September 21, 2010 11:07 PM  

Anonymous g said:

Big win for Meg equals big loss for California. I can just see it, but people have been blindsided before. What is her record? She didn't vote, She's friends with Goldman/Sacks,She was released from running E-bay due to lost profits for the company. Some resume look it up it's not hiding somewhere. Who really supports her?I know she really cares about you! RIGHT!

September 22, 2010 3:36 PM  

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