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Thursday, January 19, 2006

20th SD Polling Memo

I was going to come back on Monday and rejoin the dum dums blogging away in City Hall until I received the following memo on our ex-presidente Padilla's chances of going to the big white rotunda up in Sacramento. News like this needs to be passed along in the hopes of spreading my somber mood on to Padilla's henchmen. (Can you tell I came back a few days too early?) Anyways, read along and enjoy the memo...the long and the short of it is that Padilla's negatives kill him, and once those negatives are tested and made public, he is, in a word, toast. Butter anyone?

MEMORANDUM

January 16, 2006

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: PAUL GOODWIN
Goodwin Simon Strategic Research

RE: Polling in the 20th Senate District

A recent poll we conducted in the 20th State Senate District shows Councilman Alex Padilla with an initial lead over Assemblywoman Cindy Montanez (35% to 23%). The lead, based largely on Padilla’s initially higher name ID, dries up quickly once voters hear just a few words about Montanez .That lead is blown away once they hear about Padilla’s abundant negatives.
  • After voters learn a small amount about both candidates, Montanez takes a lead with 44%, compared to 39% for Padilla. Montanez moves well ahead of Padilla once voters learn about his voting record, ethics violations, and links to scandal-ridden developers. In fact, Montanez closes the poll with a 21 point lead.
  • Padilla’s share of the vote essentially does not change even when voters learn positive information about him, while Montanez’s vote surges as voters learn more about her.
  • Voters find Montanez’s record and background very appealing, with unusually intense positive responses to her record on protecting education, children’s health, and the environment.
One of the interesting and important findings from the poll is that the more reliable and numerous voters in the western part of the district – who are currently less familiar with the candidates – will be the strongest supporters of Montanez. Thus we see that in Congressman Berman’s 28th CD, Padilla starts with a sizable 15 point lead. But in Congressman Sherman’s 27th CD – including most of Sherman Oaks, Encino, Granada Hills, Northridge, and the west San Fernando Valley flats -- the Padilla lead is just 7 points. After voters hear balanced positive information about both candidates, Montanez takes a wide lead in CD 27, which comprises about 55% of SD 20.

In short, Montanez moves quickly ahead in this poll because the voters in the western parts of the district, where both candidates are largely unknown, are much more likely to support Montanez.

This survey of 400 likely June 2006 Democratic and DTS voters was conducted between December 9 and 14, 2005. The margin of error for the study is plus or minus five percent.

43 Comments:

Blogger Mayor Sam said:

Welcome back Mayor Frank! You were sorely missed by your fellow Mayor and our readers!

Sounds like Game Boy is in trouble!

Honestly, Cindy is WAY too liberal (I'm not happy with some things she and her sister have done in San Fer) for me and Alex is a little more moderate, BUT Cindy I think makes a better Senator. And its not like any Republican is going to get elected out there.

Not until Mayor Sam starts personally training some non-caveman, young, dynamic, moderate GOP potentials who have all decided they're better off in business anyway.

In the meantime, the Boyds continue to eat the profits and fiddle away while Rome burns.

Such a sad, sad state of affairs.

January 19, 2006 3:25 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Speaking of the Boyds, have they ever turned over the $35,000+ that the Jimmy Hahn campaign paid them to get the Lincoln Club endorsement and the endorsements of the LA County Republican Central Committee members?

Weren't they supposed to turn that over to the Republican County Committee of Los Angeles County?

I mean, it would have been unconcionable for them to just keep it and pocket it, wouldn't it?

The Boyds would never do that, would they?

Boy, that was some of the best money the Hahn campaign spent, wasn't it?

January 19, 2006 3:48 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

When the truth comes out its going to hurt for padilla for the rest of his political life... now it make sense why he's trying to bolt from city hall as fast as he can... all that acevedo corruption stuff is going to take him down... frankly he deserves as many black eyes as she can give him

January 19, 2006 4:08 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Alex Padilla started off his campaign apparently blowing steam, now we know it was all just an attempt to weed out Montanez early on. He knows head on, its over for him. He hasn't gained a single noteworthy endorsement from the area since the Fall of 2005, yet Montanez keeps piling them on. Now that he was REMOVED from the presidency, it will be much harder for him to gain any endorsements.

Atleast Alex can depend on Tony "Halliburton" Cardenas to back him up. Let's face it, Alex "Crookie" Padilla's political career is being slowly executed.

January 19, 2006 4:23 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I'm a big time Montanez supporter but I wouldn't take this poll as meaning that much. A push poll (like this one is) might be useful in helping a campaign decide on what positive information focus on for their candidate (i.e talk about Cindy's environmental record, or her efforts in consumer protection) vs. what negative information to focus on the opoosition's candidate (corruption, or the fact that Padilla little to nothing in the district) I don't think its a good forecaster of anything. Since we don't what positive/negative information was given and we don't know what would happen if you switched the order (positives about Padilla then postives about Cindy) and also even after the stuff is fed to the survey-taker Cindy's lead is still within the margin of error suggests the release of this poll is only useful to the extent that it makes fundraising easier for Cindy and harder for Padilla, to the extent that it helps her campaign to focus on and gives her campaign the apperance of momentum.

January 19, 2006 5:03 PM  

Blogger joseph mailander said:

Hey, Frank! Great to see you posting again. And I'm double relieved, as I can now slip back to Martini Republic to tend to matters there. Thanks for the opportunity---it was great to fill in!

January 19, 2006 5:09 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

5:00:
The West Valley is pretty conversative. I suspect that perhaps they aren't very fond of having a brown face representing them in Sacramento in the first place. Even the slightest appearance of being a crook & corrupt in addition to be being Latino is not going to fly in the West Valley...that's the reality. Alex will not be trusted, point blank (plus he's darker).

January 19, 2006 5:11 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

the fact is, word in the valley is that neither might run for the seat. it is still early in the race people.

January 19, 2006 5:21 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

the fact is, word in the valley is that neither might run for the seat.

January 19, 2006 5:22 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Everybody calm down. All this poll shows is that the race is a dead heat.

Now it's up to the campaigns to make it over the finish line. Personally, given his history and record, I have to handicap this one for Parke Skelton.

Who the hell is doing Alex's race anyway?

January 19, 2006 5:23 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

This is total B.S. OVER $200,000 OF OUR TAX MONEY BEING THROWN AWAY.
03-0534
CD 11 MOTION (ROSENDAHL - SMITH) relative to declaring the Brentwood Farmers’Market on Sun days from January 2, 2006 to January 2, 2007 a
Special Event (fees and costs absorbed by the City = $94,952).
04-0141
CD 11 MOTION (ROSENDAH L - SMITH ) relative to declaring the
Westchester Farmers’ Market/Vitalization Corporation on Wednesdays from January 1, 2 006 to Dec ember 31, 2006 a Special Event ( fees and costs
absorbed by the City = $64,688).
05-0703
CD 11 MOTION (ROSENDAHL -SMITH) relative to declaring the West LA Farmers’ Market on Sundays from January 8,2006 to January 8,2007 a Special Event (fees and costs absorbed by the City = $135,512).

06-0114
CD 11 MOTION (ROSENDAHL - SMITH ) relative to declaring the Pacific
Palisades Farmers’ Market on Sun days from January 5, 2006 to January 8,2007 a Special Event (fees and costs absorbed b y the City = $68,200).

January 19, 2006 5:25 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

5:25
why do you hate farmers markets?

January 19, 2006 5:34 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

5:11
Much of Northridge, certainly all of Porter Ranch, Granada Hills, and Chatsworth, the most conservative areas of the SFV, are not in Senate District 20. I live in Northridge in the western end of the 40th district but am in Republican State Sen Pete Knight's former district (tragically he died I can't remember who replaced him or district number). Alarcon has represented the district competently for years, so I think it's wrong to suggest people in the West Valley fear a 'brown face.'

Charlie Carnow

January 19, 2006 5:38 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Alex got beat by a girl....


Go Cindy!

January 19, 2006 8:17 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Does 5:25 hate farmer's markets? Or do they just despise the money that is spent on closing the streets when we are in the middle of a "supposed" budget deficit?

January 19, 2006 9:01 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Oh wait, did I mention OUR taxpayer money?

January 19, 2006 9:02 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Damnnnnnnnnnnnn.............Alex better raise a lot of $$$, because from the looks of it he's in for a ass whipping. From a girl

January 20, 2006 1:13 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Cindy continues to pick up more momentum. I hear Alex didnt raise the $$ he thought he was going to raise. And Cindy keeps getting those endorsements. It ain't looking good for "Crookie" Padilla.

January 20, 2006 1:15 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

4:23: "Crookie" Padilla. LOL. That's hilarious!!! It doesn't look good for Padilla. Anybody else notice he hasn't released any more endorsements because maybe they aren't coming in anymore?? Who's left..Greig Smith & Berman? Zine hmmm.

January 20, 2006 1:16 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Someone tell me how to Farmer's Market profit the city?????? I don't ever remember seeing one council member like this idiot Rosendahl have sooooooo many special event waivers on one agenda that cost taxpayers over $200,000. It looks like city council is just throwing away our money and gee I wonder how many cops they could get for $200,000???? HYMON DAVID Z. PLS RESEARCH AND DO STORY ON SPECIAL EVENT WAIVERS

January 20, 2006 6:30 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

The Capitol Morning Report has this: From the Alex Padilla for SD 20 campaign – ... [Los Angeles City Councilmember] Padilla has a commanding 25 point lead in the race for [SD 20] according to a poll conducted by The Mellman Group. The survey of likely primary voters showed that 38% favored Padilla while 13% favored his opponent, Asm. Cindy Montanez. Padilla has a more than 2 to 1 advantage over Montanez in every portion of the district, including [her AD 39]. ... Contact: Rose Kapolczynski 323 254 5700.

January 20, 2006 7:14 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

7:14,
Sounds like Padilla is playing catch-up.

January 20, 2006 8:58 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Mayor Sam, we love you. You can be a little more direct and say it:

Both candidates SUCK.

As a voter in the area, I am sorely depressed that these are my choices.

Montanez never finished college. She made it to her position only because of her multitude of relations with men in power. She is a poor role model for Latinas like me.

Padilla is a crook. He made it in his position only because his mentors wanted to show how ridiculously powerful they were at the time, that they could elect a 28 year old to the council. This, plus the dearth of talent in the district. Where else in the world is it a major qualification that you graduated from a good college?

How depressing that these two vie for a Senate seat.

January 20, 2006 10:03 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Obviously every poll shows padilla has a name id advantage... what's interesting is how quickly his lead dries up... in the midst of the battle its basically a dead heat... both will show about 1/2 million dollars raised and will ultimately spend about 1 million...

team padilla has been bragging about his fundraising prowess... apparently he and cindy are on par... too bad for him he's not council president anymore i think with her sacramento leadership position her fundraising will really catch fire now that the legislature is back in session...

as for the comments about cindy's "affairs" with powerful men... that about as Misogynistic as it comes... its very typcial to shoot down successful women with those kinds of comments...

Cindy works her district hard... she's everywhere... and is a very competent policy maker...Padilla's been give way more credit than he actually deserves...he's lucky Alarcon left him with enough projects to steal for his resume...

This race is going to be tight and real test for both of them... but without a doubt the real fighter is cindy

January 20, 2006 10:28 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Obviously not many of you have taken a Political Science class from a decent college. Any poll that has a margin of error higher than 3, ESPECIALLY in such a small sample of 400 people IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO ACCURATE. Not to mention the fact that Cindy's lead over Alex occurs only after positive things are said about her while negative ones are said about Alex.

Its a sad sad day when people who consider themselves to be politically astute can't even read a poll's numbers correctly.

January 20, 2006 10:55 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"She is a poor role model for Latinas like me."

albeit she's become the "First" woman, and not to mention LATINA, in almost everything in California.
I suppose that won't open doors for many others behind her, and I suppose she won't uplift as she climbs.

Sounds like jealousy to me.

January 20, 2006 11:00 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"She is a poor role model for Latinas like me."

albeit she's become the "First" woman, and not to mention LATINA, in almost everything in California.
I suppose that won't open doors for many others behind her, and I suppose she won't uplift as she climbs.

Sounds like jealousy to me.

January 20, 2006 11:00 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Cindy didn't finish college?

January 20, 2006 11:07 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

The margin of error is a little high (most polls have MoEs of about 3-4.5% these days), but 400 is a reasonable sample, provided it is representative of the district.

Cindy's gotten more impressive endorsements so far and the cash race is pretty tight. The issue is who has paid more attention to the district.

January 20, 2006 11:11 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Molina is another who didn't finish college and look how that has turned out. And there have been plenty of LATINAS before Cindy who have paved the road for her: Molina and Solis just to name a few

January 20, 2006 12:43 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Steve Jobs turned out pretty well too.

Hey has anybody seen that new iWEB????? Kick azzzz!

January 20, 2006 12:58 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Steve V. likes to think he owns San Fernando.

January 20, 2006 3:25 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Don't insult us college educated, successful Latina women by even mentioning, Cindy, Molina, Romero, Solis, Roybal-Alard and the rest of the so called Latina politicans who have done NOTHING for their own people but embarrass us especially the women. All anyone has to do is look in their own backyards and see the results. Cindy's people have big mouths and are not loyal so that's where all the rumors are coming from.

January 20, 2006 4:09 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

4:09

Well said, where's Crystal Arceo?

January 20, 2006 7:57 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Cindy does awesome work and her staff is completely loyal. What a crock.

Where does it say anywhere that you need a college degree to be a politician?? It doesn't.

College is for people who don't know what they want to be when they grow up. Obviously Cindy knew what she wanted to be and does an excellent job at it!

Cindy got their because of relationships with men? Sure.

Are you a fat, ugly Latina woman who went to Community College? Can't snag a man so you make up stuff about Cindy?

Or are you a Padilla staffer who is trying to knock her down?

Mayor Sam, I can't imagine what she and her sister have done in San Fernando that make you unhappy. All they've done is clean it up and bring in more business.

January 20, 2006 8:09 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Let me get this straight? The lady who called women out for sleeping to the top is anti-feminist and misogynist?

Call me nuts, but women should get where they are by brains and ability. Anyone who values the resource between their legs above brains and ability reduces women to just that.

Those women are the true anti-feminists and the true misogynists.

And they are not "rumors" or "attacks" if they are true.

January 20, 2006 8:16 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"Don't insult "US" successful latinas"

yeah, thats the elitist mindset we need in politics. *wink*
who gives a rats ass about your college degree--it just means you can follow instructions for 4-5 yrs. Don't fool yourselves kids, somebody in india & china will eventually take the job you earned with a college degree.

- sub-contracted CPA in India.

p/s Padilla is just another cholo from Pacoima.

January 20, 2006 9:41 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Puro Barrio Pacoima 13 ese! Click here to see the guy who jumped Padilla in

Free Crookie Padilla!

January 20, 2006 9:46 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

This lady will call you out. You are anti-feminist and misogynist.

If I were better looking with a better body, I would sleep my way to the top too! I'm not stupid.

I still would never believe that is how Cindy got to the top. You're just jealous of her, Ms. Latina Woman.

So many people love her. She's everywhere in the community. That is way more important that sitting in collge for a couple of years. She learned the hard way. Those women who would have been in her class (if she had gone) are probably working FOR HER!

January 20, 2006 10:48 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

How sad when we start putting down women because they do not have College graduate degree. What about men without a degree.

What about all those politician claiming they have degrees from two or three well know Univercity, however, when you hear them speak you wonder if those degrees were earned or paid for.

January 22, 2006 3:58 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

VOTE FOR PEDRO. HE WILL BRING HOLY SANTOS TO SACRAMENTO HALLS AND MAKE YOUR WILDEST DREAMS COME TRUE.

January 23, 2006 9:38 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"College Degree Concern"
Funny how we see those that are supporting cindy by stating that it takes a grass rootes effort to accomplish notarity in the community and not a college degree. hhmmm... Is this an admission to the fact that cindy NEVER finished school, yet she predicates her accamplishments with being a college grad! So, whos not telling the truth here. "otra mentirosa" "na-ha, shut up, dont lie" Oh and to all the homies that support cindy, you have to finish parole, and be pardoned by the judge to just register to vote. Orale. oh again, And working at Homes Depot does not count, you cant bring your orange vest to the polls.

January 23, 2006 9:47 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

And you 9:47 definitely did NOT get a college degree. Right? If so, then the country is in trouble.

Without a college degree, I can easily pick out your errors.

January 24, 2006 2:52 PM  

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