Boyd's Republican Gambit
You may also remember that Doug and Linda were part of the group that denied the Republican endorsement to Walter Moore. Wonder what Walter, McIntyre, Netkin et al think about now being on the same ship, on the poop deck of course.
Speaking of ships, you know that some Republicans have gone overboard when they jump into shark infested waters trying to save Mayor Hahn. Note the link at the bottom of the article to "People's Weekly World", not exactly a leading Republican or conservative publication!
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The following new item on the Los Angeles mayoral race from our friends at the LA County Lincoln Clubs is provided for your information.
The following poll shows the race for Mayor of Los Angeles is now dead even! While we like to think that the Lincoln Club's endorsement of Mayor Hahn is responsible for his rapid rise, it is more likely that our backing is but one of the many factors that are melting Villaraigosa's soft support faster than an ice cream cone in Death Valley.
The Mayor is very appreciative of our assistance, and that of the overwhelming majority of Republican leaders throughout LA County.
The Los Angeles County Lincoln Clubs
To: Bill Carrick
From: Gerry Tyson
Date: May 5, 2005
Re: Citywide Sample
We drew a citywide sample yesterday, calling in daytime and evening periods. Interviews were conducted with 1,515 voters drawn randomly from a sample of 15,000 voters that Jim Hayes selected from a universe that he believes represents the voters most likely to vote on May 17th.
The gross numbers for the sample show Hahn with 28.3%, Villaraigosa with 27.6% and "don't know, won't say" at 44.1%. If we look at just the decided vote, however, Hahn wins 50.6 percent to 49.4.
The sample is not balanced for gender (we have 59% female content), but if we weight it to reflect 51 percent females, Hahn wins 50.7 percent of the decided vote. Some voter subgroups in our sample under-represent the proportions that are likely to turn out on Election Day. However, if we adjust the proportions to match Donnie's Victory Formula and apply the "Hahn/Decided" percentage from our sampling, Hahn gets 55.2 percent.
There is one internal trend that we can specifically track. A week ago (April 24-27), we blind-sampled Republicans (n=978) and white non-Republicans (n=10,566) as part of our targeting analysis for the final weeks of the campaign. It's instructive to compare Hahn's decided-vote percentages in those samples to what we found yesterday, after the Florida fundraising scandal became news:
SUBGROUP Ap 24-27 4-May
Republicans 61.5% 79.4%
Non-Repub Whites 51.7% 56.2%
LA mayor's race: Hahn moves to the right
People's Weekly World - USA
Republican Party of Los Angeles County
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Commerce, CA 90040
Phone: (323) 215-4505
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