Exit Polls
Our friends over at LA Voice have already dissected some of the most important key pieces of data.
So I am pasting from their website what they posted.
There's been a lot of data to analyze following last week's Mayoral Primary election. Here are some interesting features that struck me as important iin the exit poll conducted on March 8, 2005 by the Los Angeles Times (2789 voters with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points):
52% of actual voters were white, followed by 22% Latino, 16% Black, 6% Asian
Hertzberg got 36% of the White vote (followed by Villaraigosa 27% and Hahn 23%)
Hahn got 59% of the Asian American vote
Villaraigosa got 64% of the Latino vote
Parks got 54% of the African American vote
8% of the respondents said they were gay or lesbian
Villaraigosa got 43% of the gay/lesbian vote ...
51% of respondents said they were liberal, 25% conservative, 24% moderate
The gender split was 50-50 (unusual since women usually make up the voting majority)
Villaraigosa had a +4 "gender gap" (35-31 male-female split), Hahn had a -2 (23-25)
Villaraigosa won 825 precincts, Hertzberg 474 , Parks 185 and Hahn a mere 102 (but he placed second in more than all of the other three)...Loyola Marymount University also conducted their own exit poll and also found some interesting results. 1200 Primary voters were asked as they left the polls:If no candidate wins 51 % today, and there is a runoff election who would you vote for?
Hahn Villaraigosa Don't know
City Total 29.7% 57.5% 12.8%
Group
White 30.4% 56.5% 13.0%
Black 33.3% 49.0% 17.6%
Latino 19.9% 74.2% 6.0%
Asian 51.1% 29.8% 19.1%
The margin of error is +/2.8 percentage points. The numbers indicate precisely what a deep hole Hahn is in. He started off the campaign to the May 17 run-off election down 28 points! His only chance is to depress turnout so that his advantage with absentee voters can have a bigger impact on the final result. In the primary election, there were 408,069 votes cast (26% of the 1,474,186 registered voters in the City of Los Angeles), 104, 959 (25.72%) were absentee ballots. These votes were reported first and led to much consternation among the chattering media since Hahn led with 30%, Hertzberg had 26% and Villaraigosa trailed with 23%.In the 2001 race, turnout was 33% in the primary and barely increased to 36% in the run-off. If we get the same effect this year we could expect a 28% voter turnout on May 17. Being generous and giving the Mayor a 15 point lead among absentee voters, Hahn would have to limit Villaraigosa's lead among election day voters to 5 percentage points to have any chance of preventing Antonio from becoming El Alcalde.
Now before folks blast away at the fact that we would ever post exit polling data because of the Kerry debacle - let me remind everyone that all those wrong Kerry numbers were still within the margin of error. So look at the numbers above and remember that even within the margin of error it's not looking good for Hahn.
Lastly, I'll post them if I haveto, but recall the LA Times exit polling from 4 years ago, it showed that Antonio was going to have a tough time in the run-off and he did. So using the LA Times as the barometer, it is still not looking good for Hahn.
Posted by Anonymous @ 3/16/2005 12:04:00 PM
34 Comments:
All it takes is one truth (tv ad) word to get out how bad a person has been (Antonio) and you can kiss your exit polls out the window. That's exactly what's going to happen to Antonio. In 2001 the exit polls were taken before the crack pipe ad.
Ah, the November 2nd Exit polls, don't remind me. It made me sick on election night and it still makes me sick today. Here's the deal though. Hahn did better among absentee voters then he did on election day, but this is not a strength neccesarily. Remember, he only got 30% of the absentee votes. That means that 70% of absentee voters voted against him! Now that's less than 77% of election day voters voting against him, but it's not very good. Also keep in mind that Hahn was weak prior to the election but Hertzberg steamed up at the end and Villaraigosa also began gaining(although not as much as Hertzberg). Those Hahn votes could have come well in advance.
The only thing I wonder about is the real strength of Hahn among Asian American voters. I don't know why, to be honest with you. Oh and one more thing, the exit poll numbers of who voted is most devastating for Hahn. Mind you, the official population of LA is 47% hispanic (it's probably more though), Villaraigosa received 33% of the vote despite the fact that a majority of voters were white and only 22% of voters were hispanic (mind you , he only won 64% of the hispanic vote).
This doesn't mean Hahn will not go down without a fight (and a big cry). He will throw everything he has at Villaraigosa. And it could work one last time for Hahn. We shall see.
Yeah and your exit polls showed Antonio getting more votes from the blacks then Hahn. IN fact, Hahn got 23% and ADV got only 15%
The LMU poll is laughable. They used an experimental sampling method, designed by someone who admitted in the LA Times that he voted for Villaraigosa. The poll predicted Hertzberg to finish second by a wide margin. That taints the rest of their "findings."
The LA Times exit poll is equally dubious. Their questioners did not ask respondants to describe their own ethnicity; rather, the questioners just looked at the person and guessed at his or her ethnicity. They also never revealed who won their exit poll, leaving in doubt as to whether they also predicted Hertzberg to finish second, which would again taint the rest of their numbers.
The reality is the 2005 primary results look very similar to the 2001 primary results. Antonio still has to get to 50% + 1, and that will be no easier in 2005 as it was in 2001.
Hahn should take a page from Ira Reiner's playbook.
When Incumbent D.A. Ira saw that Gil Garcetti had bested him in the primary (not too different than the recent vote), Reiner decided he did not want to go down to defeat in the run off, so he did the honorable thing, he withdrew.
Let's see, who was Ira's main advisor then?
You guessed it, none other than The Mayor's Main Man, Bill Wardlaw.
Will history repeat itself?
Give it up, Jimmyboy, your fifteen minutes are up.
The LMU poll is laughable. They used an experimental sampling method, designed by someone who admitted in the LA Times that he voted for Villaraigosa. The poll predicted Hertzberg to finish second by a wide margin. That taints the rest of their "findings."
The LA Times exit poll is equally dubious. Their questioners did not ask respondants to describe their own ethnicity; rather, the questioners just looked at the person and guessed at his or her ethnicity. They also never revealed who won their exit poll, leaving in doubt as to whether they also predicted Hertzberg to finish second, which would again taint the rest of their numbers.
The reality is the 2005 primary results look very similar to the 2001 primary results. Antonio still has to get to 50% + 1, and that will be no easier in 2005 as it was in 2001.
The LMU poll is laughable. They used an experimental sampling method, designed by someone who admitted in the LA Times that he voted for Villaraigosa. The poll predicted Hertzberg to finish second by a wide margin. That taints the rest of their "findings."
The LA Times exit poll is equally dubious. Their questioners did not ask respondants to describe their own ethnicity; rather, the questioners just looked at the person and guessed at his or her ethnicity. They also never revealed who won their exit poll, leaving in doubt as to whether they also predicted Hertzberg to finish second, which would again taint the rest of their numbers.
The reality is the 2005 primary results look very similar to the 2001 primary results. Antonio still has to get to 50% + 1, and that will be no easier in 2005 then it was in 2001.
The LMU poll is laughable. They used an experimental sampling method, designed by someone who admitted in the LA Times that he voted for Villaraigosa. The poll predicted Hertzberg to finish second by a wide margin. That taints the rest of their "findings."
The LA Times exit poll is equally dubious. Their questioners did not ask respondants to describe their own ethnicity; rather, the questioners just looked at the person and guessed at his or her ethnicity. They also never revealed who won their exit poll, leaving in doubt as to whether they also predicted Hertzberg to finish second, which would again taint the rest of their numbers.
The reality is the 2005 primary results look very similar to the 2001 primary results. Antonio still has to get to 50% + 1, and that will be no easier in 2005 than it was in 2001.
The LMU poll is laughable. They used an experimental sampling method, designed by someone who admitted in the LA Times that he voted for Villaraigosa. The poll predicted Hertzberg to finish second by a wide margin. That taints the rest of their "findings."
The LA Times exit poll is equally dubious. Their questioners did not ask respondants to describe their own ethnicity; rather, the questioners just looked at the person and guessed at his or her ethnicity. They also never revealed who won their exit poll, leaving in doubt as to whether they also predicted Hertzberg to finish second, which would again taint the rest of their numbers.
The reality is the 2005 primary results look very similar to the 2001 primary results. Antonio, the coalition builder of liberals, democrats and latinos, still has to get to 50% + 1, and that will be no easier in 2005 than it was in 2001.
Mayor Sam, aren't you getting sloppy. Don't you know who was behind these polls at LMU. None other than Fernando Guerra and David Ayon, probably the only two Latinos in academia that Tony can turn to. Fernando is a registered lobbyist and has for years been on the take. First with Alatorre and now with Tony. Research the contracts he has lobbyied for, it's in the Times. And as for David Ayon, poor David never could get that Ph.D. and has now conceded to playing second fiddle to Fernando. Whenever the Times needs a nice quote from an "educated source" Fernando always turns David loose. And David also happens to be Monica Lozano's mantenido, which the best enlgish translation is "kept women." Monica is the main person at La Opinion.
Do us a favor and research your sources first. None of these guys have ever set foot in a campaign office and couldn't analyze themselves out of a political paper bag.
I've had to call and have a word with Fernando on some of the idiotic quotes he has in the LAT. He always says they "misquoted me." He has even admitted in the LAT that he supports Antonio. I'm sure Ace and Parke tell him how to speak.
"...questioners just looked at the person and guessed at his or her ethnicity."
Good thing they didn't stop me - I "look" like a GAP (giant albino pygmy).
Hahn may have been MIA from some debates, but he's spent more time in the last two years running the city than Tony V. has helping out CD14. You may like one office holder better than the other, but you wan't do the work if you're not around.
Mayor Hahn came out first with his support of the Smaller School Alliance. Now all of a sudden Antonio again jumps on the bandwagon.
Antonio: "Our public schools gave me the opportunity to achieve the American dream."
Interesting he would say this even though both his kids attend private catholic school. Obviously the public schools aren't good enough for this kids to attend. Hahn's kids go to public school. Isn't Antonio on the Education and Neighborhood Committee?
If Tony said this, "Our public schools gave me the opportunity to achieve the American dream", obviously it was one of his consultants trying to shore up his image. What kind of dream is he talking about - flunked out of Roosevelt High, 1.8 GPA at UCLA and the last time I checked, The People's College of Law was not a public school. So much for your public education.
The only reason Tony ended up at a public school is because he got kicked out of a private one. In his Times profile of 2001 written by Matea Gold he says that he got kicked out of Cathedral High because he wouldn't snitch on his fellow classmates who got involved in a racially motivated fight against the white boys of St. Francis High. What a load of bullshit. Everyone in Tony's old neighborhood knows that he got expelled from Cathedral for doing drugs.
Listen up bloggers,
Word is there is some angry city folk lurking around these parts trying to uncover all you bloggers.
So before they get the pleasure lil boy from south la is about to uncover all the masks.
Armando - Roberto Salazar
Anon-N-the-know - Terry Valdez
MEAT - Jaime Garcia
Mayor Sam - Stuart Waldman
Chief Parker - David Phelps
Sacramento Nighties - Henry Lozano
Halogirl - Dennis Zine staffer (still unclear)
Hahn "O" - Rolando Cuevas
Other names that have looked at this website...
Cynthia Ruiz
Jeff Millman
Yusef Robb
Brian Hay
David Koenig
Ulysses Sanchez
Ace Smith
Bill Carrick
Mayor James Hahn
Councilman Bernard Parks
Councilman Dennis Zine
Councilwoman Janice Hahn
Councilman Tony Cardenas
Senator Richard Alarcon
Matt Szabo
and the list goes on and on....
No one is innocent -- everyone is guilty.
Before the powers that be go head and try to kill this blog like they did with the 4th floor. This little boy wanted to make sure that the proper folks got some mud on them so no one is innocent.
Richard Acosta
EXCLUSIVE
HERTZBERG TO ENDORSE VILLARAIGOSA.
To the annoyance of Cynthia Telles, Huggy's wife, Bob has agreed to endorse Villaraigosa - after much pressure from consultant John Shallman and Laura Chick. Stabbing early supporter Jack Weiss in the back, Antonio has promised to support and endorse Hertzberg in Bob's quest to become City Attorney. That could be in 4 years or just over 2 if Rocky beats Jerry Brown! Bob should worry if Antonio will keep his promise, however!
Hertzberg'll never get another vote from me, for any position, if that's true. And to think, I walked precincts for that "Sacramento Politician!"
SacramentNighties is Henry Lozano - Ha Ha Ha. That old playboy doesn't even know how to turn on a typwriter. But I can see where Henry would be pissed at Tony - when Henry was Chief of Staff to Roybal and widely known as the kingmaker, he gave Tony his start. Bringing Tony along at the Congressman's speaking engagements and letting Tony take the mike to get some practice. Funny thing is, old man Roybal never has endorsed Tony - gotta love that man's intuition. Tony stabbed Henry in the back as soon as Parke took over Tony's reigns and ordered Tony to cut loose all his little Mexican friends. I wonder if Tony's been circumcised yet?
This outing game is great...but you are wrong on most of the names.
Yeah, it is true. El Sereno residents have always thought of themselves as a cut above East L.A. or Boyle Heights. Maybe because they speak with less of an accent or because they practice birth control. But more than likely it is because they are closer to South Pasadena and Alhambra. So close but yet so far! It is true that the grass is always greener on the other side, or in this case, "whiter." Is it any wonder that El Sereno is "ashamed to be Mexican" Tony's base.
Bob H, Its a dam shame! If it is true that you are endorsing Villaraigosa, A Dam shame!
At this point in the game, that endorsement's worth 2-3 percentage points -- tops. Any day not, voters are going start saying, Bob who? It's certainly not going to drag any of the 25+ percent "conservative" that voted further left (than BH) into ADV's far-left camp. Villaraigosa still has to get more than two thirds of everything that's left after that untouchable block, just to post 50+ percent on May 17.
Stuart Waldman would not take a piss without consulting with Bob. Poor guy did not run against mr. super duper personality, dry as a fish and arrogant as a prick, andrei cherny, and lloyd levine snuck in and got himself a job instead of working for his dad.
As for bob, city attorney?? your shitting me. you guys do not get it. he ran to get business and some decent clients. he is done in politics unless his drop at mayer brown drops. he will now spend the next few years gaining more weight.
as for an endorsement of ADV, that proves that none of the bloggers here are jewish men married to latinas. Jewish men do whatever latinas tell them. period.
Good Evening, I'll like to take this opporunity to introduce myself. My Name is Rolando "The Big O" Cuevas. Its been brought to my attention that a coward is using my good name on this site to attack various individuals.
Anyone who know me will tell you the following: I supported Jim Hahn for Mayor 2001, and I will do the same this election. I do not need to hide behind some anonymous name to express my thought or suport for a candidate.
I do not have blogger name or user name, so box that request my identity only allows me to click anonymous.
Good Evening, I'll like to take this opporunity to introduce myself. My Name is Rolando "The Big O" Cuevas. Its been brought to my attention that a coward is using my good name on this site to attack various individuals.
Anyone who know me will tell you the following: I supported Jim Hahn for Mayor 2001, and I will do the same this election. I do not need to hide behind some anonymous name to express my thought or suport for a candidate.
I do not have blogger name or user name, so box that request my identity only allows me to click anonymous.
Get REAL, all you "endorsement" hunters. Why would anyone (else) who ran against Hahn want to endorse Villaraigosa and possibly increase his chances of beating Hahn. The perfect scenario now exists for those who wanted that job and want another crack at it, ASAP. If they sit it out, and Hahn pulls it out one last time -- the most they have to wait for another chance is four years, maybe less (if he's as "corrupt" as they all say and gets "indicted" or even recalled, a la Gray Davis). In 4 years or less, Villaraigosa is a two-time loser who's proven he can't win, and Hahn's out regardless. The also-rans are next up to bat.
BUT, if Villaraigosa wins (and they help him), they have to wait as much as eight years for another shot at the brass ring, and they're all too old and too easily forgotten by the electorate for that kind of delay. Given that timetable, why would Hertzberg, Parks, etc. want to help anyone beat Hahn, unless they're ready to retire from politics entirely (and risk alienating the more conservative portions of their base at the same time). Note that Riordan, Hertzberg's patron, didn't jump on the Tony V. bandwagon right away, either. He's been telling media he thinks Villaraigosa might (might?) be too liberal to win -- laying the groundwork for his own endorsement announcement (or lack of one).
The non-endorsements of all these political animals will speak volumes. . .
MAYOR SAM'S GHOST TOWN!!!
Why in the hell would ADV align himself with a man who helped divide this city with succession? Doesn't he know that it will hurt him with those of us who fought hard to keep this city in one piece? I guess he was just desperate to get any white guy to back him. Typical Antonio. MEAT tell your boss to stop stalking Hahn. Word is Antonio has his people scrambling to find out where Hahn is going to be then all of a sudden showing up. But then again Antonio has never done anything on his own.
You guys all get caught up in the petty stuff and ignore the fact that the entire city sees Hahn as a loser. The two things he has done in his entire political life that required some guts have both backfired on him, alienating his central core constituencies.
His black vote is in trouble with Yvonne, the most popular black offical in Los Angeles having left the ship for Antonio and the Valley still miffed at his aggressive opposition to the secession and his failure to do anything for them for four years.
About Hahn, in the words of Gertrude Stein (talking about Oakland), "There's no there, there".
Antonio wins because he is the hope for the future, and despite the unhappy few Latinos who have not been able to get along with him, Antonio remains a popular figure with the rank and file.
Step back, boys and girls, this thing is likely to turn into a rout, especially if Bernard and Bobzilla both endorse Antonio, he could literally run away with this election. They will endorse, because they don't want to be left behind, and Jimmy's promises mean nothing. Just look at the last four years.
AV - 54%
JKH - 46%
ADV I'm sure is very very worried about the black vote. HAHN GOT 23% ADV ONLY 15% and that was with Bitter Bernie endorsement. Burke is hated in South LA cause she and her husband did nothing to help King/Drew from all the trouble it was in. Now the commnity is suffering. There's been a lot of blacks who have come out and said emphatically they will NOT vote for a mexican. Like I always say everything is in "timing." A little bird told me when the rest of the city realizes what a clown ADV has been in his own community and the truth about his taking money from the poorest community in the city, allowing illegal vendors to prosper while hard working legal businesses suffer and on and on....we'll see who they decide to vote for. All anyone has to do is compare HAHN's record and experience and that lowlife Antonio's record. He doesn't have one.
LOSER!
Hahn could win on his record on housing, low crime and after school programs; and let's not forget the neighborhood councils. Have yet to think of what Villalagrosa has done for the city.
There are sure a lot of bitter and "Anonymous" folks here.
Get a pair of balls and post your names.
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