Now that the race for Mayor seems to be settling down a bit, with both campaigns taking shots over education I thought it would be a good idea to dissect some of the exit polling data that's coming out.
Our friends over at LA Voice have already dissected some of the most important key pieces of data.
So I am pasting from their website what they posted.
There's been a lot of data to analyze following last week's Mayoral Primary election. Here are some interesting features that struck me as important iin the exit poll conducted on March 8, 2005 by the Los Angeles Times (2789 voters with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points):
52% of actual voters were white, followed by 22% Latino, 16% Black, 6% Asian
Hertzberg got 36% of the White vote (followed by Villaraigosa 27% and Hahn 23%)
Hahn got 59% of the Asian American vote
Villaraigosa got 64% of the Latino vote
Parks got 54% of the African American vote
8% of the respondents said they were gay or lesbian
Villaraigosa got 43% of the gay/lesbian vote ...
51% of respondents said they were liberal, 25% conservative, 24% moderate
The gender split was 50-50 (unusual since women usually make up the voting majority)
Villaraigosa had a +4 "gender gap" (35-31 male-female split), Hahn had a -2 (23-25)
Villaraigosa won 825 precincts, Hertzberg 474 , Parks 185 and Hahn a mere 102 (but he placed second in more than all of the other three)...Loyola Marymount University also conducted their own exit poll and also found some interesting results. 1200 Primary voters were asked as they left the polls:If no candidate wins 51 % today, and there is a runoff election who would you vote for?
Hahn Villaraigosa Don't know
City Total 29.7% 57.5% 12.8%
White 30.4% 56.5% 13.0%
Black 33.3% 49.0% 17.6%
Latino 19.9% 74.2% 6.0%
Asian 51.1% 29.8% 19.1%
The margin of error is +/2.8 percentage points. The numbers indicate precisely what a deep hole Hahn is in. He started off the campaign to the May 17 run-off election down 28 points! His only chance is to depress turnout so that his advantage with absentee voters can have a bigger impact on the final result. In the primary election, there were 408,069 votes cast (26% of the 1,474,186 registered voters in the City of Los Angeles), 104, 959 (25.72%) were absentee ballots. These votes were reported first and led to much consternation among the chattering media since Hahn led with 30%, Hertzberg had 26% and Villaraigosa trailed with 23%.In the 2001 race, turnout was 33% in the primary and barely increased to 36% in the run-off. If we get the same effect this year we could expect a 28% voter turnout on May 17. Being generous and giving the Mayor a 15 point lead among absentee voters, Hahn would have to limit Villaraigosa's lead among election day voters to 5 percentage points to have any chance of preventing Antonio from becoming El Alcalde.
Now before folks blast away at the fact that we would ever post exit polling data because of the Kerry debacle - let me remind everyone that all those wrong Kerry numbers were still within the margin of error. So look at the numbers above and remember that even within the margin of error it's not looking good for Hahn.
Lastly, I'll post them if I haveto, but recall the LA Times exit polling from 4 years ago, it showed that Antonio was going to have a tough time in the run-off and he did. So using the LA Times as the barometer, it is still not looking good for Hahn.