Riordan Endorses Hertzberg
It might have been no surprise, but this evening on KFI's John and Ken Show, the 39th Mayor of the City of Los Angeles, Richard Riordan, endorsed former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg to take Jim Hahn's seat.Riordan, a popular two term Mayor who like Hertzberg was an unknown amongst the masses prior to being elected, might bring some cachet to the hugging man's campaign.
But then again, Hertzberg shouldn't get too excited. In 2001, Riordan endorsed his protege, Steve Sobroff, in the primary who LOST and then Tony Villar in the general, who, uh LOST.
Now if Huggy can get Tom Bradley to endorse him, that would be a good trick. Tom - you there?
Posted by Mayor Sam @ 2/10/2005 07:22:00 PM
22 Comments:
that's something - it seems as if the blogs are falling this way:
Mayor Sam - hertzberg
Boi from Troy - Hertzberg or anything male that looks good in underwear
LA Observed - Hahn
LA Voice - Villaraigosa
Martini Republic - Parks
Any blogs supporting Alarcon?
April 10, 2001
Antonio Villaraigosa 30.43%
James Kenneth Hahn 25.05%
Steve Soboroff 21.25%
Joel Wachs 11.01%
Xavier Becerra 5.97%
Kathleen Connell 4.82%
March 8, 2005?
Hertzberg - 28%
Villaraigosa -24%
Hahn - 23%
Parks - 15%
Alarcon - 8%
Moore - 1%
All others - 1%
So Villaraigosa lets another endorsement from 2001 slip away. No to worry, the newly organized "Northeast Progressive Alliance" (A Tony V. Joint) based in Mt. Washington is polling heavily in his favor. Following their "We (heart symbol) Tony" Valentine's Day reception this weekend up the winding hill where he jogs for the benefit of naive local newspaper reporters, all 14 are expected to give their blessing for his camp to send out another spam piece on that endorsement.
Well, that's the kiss of death. See 2001. And see recent polling citywide on Riordan, whose numbers have sunk dramatically since calling that girl a stupid, dirty girl.
Hertzberg will pull in a tad over 30%, followed by Hahn with 23%, followed Tony V. with 21%, The surprize will be Alarcon with 14% and a smaller than usual turnout will give Parks an 11% showing with the rest scattered.
May - Hertzberg will ride to victory on a Hahn TKO of 65% to Hahn's 35%.
And so it was blogged and so it shall be....
Reality check:
Hahn 27%
Villaraigosa 26%
Hertzberg 19%
Alarcon 15%
Parks 11%
Moore 1%
All others 1%
If exploited properly (targeted mailers, etc.) Riordan's support can add another 3-4 points to Hertzberg's column from the Republican numbers that have been wandering away from Hahn but weren't sure whether to try Hertzberg or Parks (or sit this one out). Tony V. still can't touch this group of 20-25 percent of the total, land-locking him more and more below 25 percent in the primary -- once all others split up the heavily fractured Democrats.
"...Riordan, whose numbers have sunk dramatically since calling that girl a stupid, dirty girl."
That's wishful thinking from the anybody-but-Hertzberg's -- most people barely remember that non-story in the first place, and the one's that do also remember the over-the-top outcry was exposed quickly as boomerang effect race-baiting from the far lefties.
FROM LA Times, on new mailers: "In response to Villaraigosa's mailing, Hahn campaign advisor Kuwata said, "So much for his promise to keep this campaign positive."
"Neither of (Hahn's) mailers mention Hahn's rivals."
Thought Villaraigosa's fundraising letter said Hahn was beating up on poor Tony ("again")? Another campaign lie!
Hertzberg's willingness to take a huge pay cut to become mayor and help the city will start sinking in with the undecided and give him even more traction as the race goes along. The Times really should have done their polling after their own pieces -- since most of the challengers showed low recognition numbers, but no doubt they will reprise, or an indie poll is due soon. Look for a major shift in numbers -- Hertzberg up by as much as 5 points, Alarcon up by 3 to 4 due to debate viewing, Hahn and AV sliding 2 to 3 percentage points each in the larger pie that includes more (new) decideds and Parks holding steady.
Trust me, Anonymous, I work for a campaign (not mayoral) and I saw the numbers in 2001, when Riordan had a 60 percent positive rating and now, when three weeks ago, he had a thirty to sixty positive to negative rating. The crosstabs showed it was that low among dems and repubs (who have never really trusted Riordan). I have no beef against Bob.
did riordan give a reason why he wasn't endorsing villaraigosa this time? i heard it was because of the recall.
ANONYMOUS SAYS:
"Trust me, Anonymous..."
So much anonymous trust -- it just gives me CHILLS! ("Wait up driver, I just fell off your turnip truck!")
Works for me, let's meet in a dark alley and I'll show you the new credit card I just go in the mail.
Northeast Progressive Alliance is a bunch of Attention Deficit Villaraigosa supporters on his campaign. Who are they trying to kid. They made up this group really fast to say Tony Villar got another endorsement. I'm sure Cynthia (get a better dye job) Ruiz is in that group.
YAWN.
Hertzberg takes Sobroff's, Wachs' and some of Becerra's votes. He comes out of nowhere and Tony Villa and Hahn say "Wha happened?"
Latinos disgusted with ADV will also throw some bones to Alarcon and he will best Bitter Bernie. Pro business types who like Bernie can't go with him because it will be a disaster for the LAPD. So they like Bernie, but their only safe harbor is Huggy.
Huggy just needs to make sure someone is getting the little old Jewish ladies out there voting for him and not Antonio because they think Antonio is the 22nd reincarnation of FDR.
SacramentoNighties seems to actually know a little less than nothing. That "get prepared" statement means nothing if your unwilling or unable to deliver even a hint of what's to come. For someone who writes a lot, there's very little substance.
Sacramento don't you think Huggy has some real dirt on ADV as well? Interesting that neither one of them want to talk about the affair ADV had while being roommates with Huggy. I have a feeling Huggy has a hell of a lot on ADV and it will come out if Tony goes that route.
Hey, lay off Riordan. It was just a joke. Can't anybody take a joke?
Tony V. has nothing to lose from having someone else throw dirt on him -- he plays victim better then anyone in town. "I slime you, I gain; you slime ME, I gain more ('poor, poor, Tony, people are trying to hurt his beautiful innocent family') my OWN people slime me, anonymously, I STILL gain" - ADV.
Win at any cost. If he really cared about the "beautiful family" he would have never entered this race and subjected them to the possiblity of the crap they had to handle last time -- all over again. They're a tool to advance, like his forgotten district has been... like the stories of his hard working mother (dressing him in "holey clothes"). She would be in tears to know he painted that kind of "poor me" picture after working herself up from the bottom; to have a son say that kind of self-serving drivel about her care of him -- just for more political gain. He is the ultimate cynic and opportunist.
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