Cindy's Response to Alex's Poll Spin

A couple of weeks ago, we posted an internal memo regarding intial polling into the 20th Senate District Democratic primary battle between Assembly Member Cindy Montanez and LA City Councilman Alex Padilla. Here is the response from Montanez putting Padilla's spin into perspective.

In a confusing, contorted and ultimately misleading release and memo, the Padilla campaign claims an internally commissioned poll shows that Councilmember Alex Padilla starts the race with a lead because he is “better liked” throughout the district than Senate opponent Assemblymember Cindy Montañez. The numbers cited are clearly out of context and ultimately reveal nothing other than the candidates’ name identification.

To put name identification measurements in perspective: in the recent election in Los Angeles to fill Antonio Villaraigosa’s vacated City Council seat, candidate Nick Pacheco held a more than 2-1 lead in name ID over his opponent Jose Huizar.

Jose Huizar defeated Pacecho by a margin of more than 28% of the vote.

So while "better liked" may be a meaningful measure of voter sentiment in the Junior Class President election at San Fernando High, it is essentially meaningless in this race for the State Senate. What is important, however, is the informed vote.

Below you will find the two paragraphs read to voters during a poll conducted in December by the respected polling firm of Goodwin Simon Strategic Research. With just this information about Montañez and Padilla, the race is a statistical dead heat.

[ ] Alex Padilla [pa-DEE-ah] is an L.A. City Councilman representing the San Fernando Valley. Raised in Pacoima to working class immigrant parents, he worked hard and graduated from a top Ivy League university. In 1999, he became one of the youngest people ever elected to the City Council. As Council President, Padilla provided critical leadership to the city after nine-eleven and in the hiring of Police Chief Bill Bratton. He brought a new police division headquarters to serve the San Fernando Valley, as well as the Children’s Museum in Hansen Dam. He is endorsed for the Senate by Chief Bratton for his work to fight crime, and is also endorsed by U.S. Senators Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein.

[ ] Cindy Montanez [mon-ten-YEZ] is a state assemblywoman who represents much of the San Fernando Valley and is former mayor of the city of San Fernando. Despite growing up in poverty, her long history of volunteerism and her commitment to improving our community helped her become one of the most effective legislators in Sacramento. She’s written more bills to help people than almost any other state lawmaker. She helped create local parks, clean up the environment, expand access to health care, improve our schools, and protect consumers from fraud and identify theft, including the landmark Car Buyers’ Bill of Rights. That’s why she is endorsed by city firefighters, Nurses, and by City Controller Laura Chick.

Additionally, after voters are reminded of Padilla’s straightforward and well-publicized negatives, such as “he received the largest ethics fine in Los Angeles City history,” his vote collapses, and Montanez finishes with a significant lead.

This is why the Padilla campaign is panicked, and why they are scrambling to spew out confusing numbers – because their poll shows precisely these same results. Results they are understandably unwilling to release.