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Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Cindy's Response to Alex's Poll Spin

A couple of weeks ago, we posted an internal memo regarding intial polling into the 20th Senate District Democratic primary battle between Assembly Member Cindy Montanez and LA City Councilman Alex Padilla. Here is the response from Montanez putting Padilla's spin into perspective.

In a confusing, contorted and ultimately misleading release and memo, the Padilla campaign claims an internally commissioned poll shows that Councilmember Alex Padilla starts the race with a lead because he is “better liked” throughout the district than Senate opponent Assemblymember Cindy Montañez. The numbers cited are clearly out of context and ultimately reveal nothing other than the candidates’ name identification.

To put name identification measurements in perspective: in the recent election in Los Angeles to fill Antonio Villaraigosa’s vacated City Council seat, candidate Nick Pacheco held a more than 2-1 lead in name ID over his opponent Jose Huizar.

Jose Huizar defeated Pacecho by a margin of more than 28% of the vote.

So while "better liked" may be a meaningful measure of voter sentiment in the Junior Class President election at San Fernando High, it is essentially meaningless in this race for the State Senate. What is important, however, is the informed vote.

Below you will find the two paragraphs read to voters during a poll conducted in December by the respected polling firm of Goodwin Simon Strategic Research. With just this information about Montañez and Padilla, the race is a statistical dead heat.

[ ] Alex Padilla [pa-DEE-ah] is an L.A. City Councilman representing the San Fernando Valley. Raised in Pacoima to working class immigrant parents, he worked hard and graduated from a top Ivy League university. In 1999, he became one of the youngest people ever elected to the City Council. As Council President, Padilla provided critical leadership to the city after nine-eleven and in the hiring of Police Chief Bill Bratton. He brought a new police division headquarters to serve the San Fernando Valley, as well as the Children’s Museum in Hansen Dam. He is endorsed for the Senate by Chief Bratton for his work to fight crime, and is also endorsed by U.S. Senators Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein.


[ ] Cindy Montanez [mon-ten-YEZ] is a state assemblywoman who represents much of the San Fernando Valley and is former mayor of the city of San Fernando. Despite growing up in poverty, her long history of volunteerism and her commitment to improving our community helped her become one of the most effective legislators in Sacramento. She’s written more bills to help people than almost any other state lawmaker. She helped create local parks, clean up the environment, expand access to health care, improve our schools, and protect consumers from fraud and identify theft, including the landmark Car Buyers’ Bill of Rights. That’s why she is endorsed by city firefighters, Nurses, and by City Controller Laura Chick.

Additionally, after voters are reminded of Padilla’s straightforward and well-publicized negatives, such as “he received the largest ethics fine in Los Angeles City history,” his vote collapses, and Montanez finishes with a significant lead.

This is why the Padilla campaign is panicked, and why they are scrambling to spew out confusing numbers – because their poll shows precisely these same results. Results they are understandably unwilling to release.

55 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said:

like i said, it's going to come down to the team with the best field and the only team i've seen has been Cindy's team out and about for the past year. lights out for Padilla aka "crookilla".

January 30, 2006 11:52 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

who's on Cindy'd team (field)? i don't know any. are they any good? what campaigns have they been on?

January 30, 2006 11:53 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

yeah.......who's on this "so called" team? they can't handle the big boys. Have you heard of the name Acevedo? these kids better watch out.

January 30, 2006 11:56 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

kick his ass Cindy, the boy needs it. he has forgotten how ugly looking he is. the power has gone to his head. he's starting to think girls like him for his looks.

January 30, 2006 11:58 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Yeah, I heard the name Acevedo...all over the LA Times for corrupt practices. Should we expect the same from Padilla?

January 31, 2006 12:34 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

U da man A-Pad. Dont listen to the haters.

Chico

January 31, 2006 12:38 AM  

Blogger Phil Krakover said:

When the going gets tough, the tough get going.

Bet on Acevedo and Padilla in this one; they've been there, done that.

The money will make the difference and Padilla has raised about twice as much so far and is pulling away.

He's gonna swamp her on election day, but you guys keep on having fun with this...

January 31, 2006 2:30 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Acevedo was connected to "La Colectiva" right?
Hmmmmmm??????

January 31, 2006 5:14 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

The positives about Alex included 2 policies while the entire positive about Cindy included lots of policies. And really...being endorsed by Chick? I'd be watching my back in case she has a knife.

January 31, 2006 8:11 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Of course everybody knows about O.G. James Acevedo and all the ass whoopings montanez has given him, she's made a career out of it.

11:53:
Word is bond they got ex-Hahn employee James Burkhardt running Padilla's field. Seems like that APAD team consist of unemployed and ex-Hahnistas. This is shaping out like Poopie's rematch if you ask me, since montanez put all her chips EARLY on in the SFV with AV. Same team...and you better believe same endorsements.

Free Crookie!

January 31, 2006 10:05 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

COS fuentes is a shenanigan away from a heart atack or going blind. he should just retire from politics and worry about his health.

save fuentes and free crookie!

January 31, 2006 10:08 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

There is no doubt about it - Cindy is hot. No wonder Fat Yolanda lost. She needs to stop chowing down on those free pork chops and carnitas with AV, A Pad and Felipe.

January 31, 2006 11:37 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

While Cindy's "team" is busy blogging Alex is getting the endorsers, money and support to win. Cindy is going to need more than a few votes from Mayor Sam to win this election.

January 31, 2006 12:42 PM  

Anonymous El Gringo said:

I just love this, mexicans or latinos going at it, beating each other up. There is a saying about latinos, they are traveling for their future on the path of yesterday. Carlos Fuentes even said latinos are their worst enemy...he spoke of the crab theory which in brief comments that if one latino has reached the top, he will only be pulled down by the rest of the latinos at the bottom. Latinos are all haters among themsleves. George Lopez makes parody of it as well. he says "chicanos are never happy to see each other, never happy to see other people". This is soo true, instead of helping each other they hate on each other. which is cool by my standards. Heck why stop there, I saw the article in the LA times and saw that the majority of students, latinos all, were having a hard time just trying to get by pre-algebra, haaaaaahaaaaahaaaa PRE_ALGEBRA. SHUT-UP!!!! Latinos in that school could not figure out for X when, X-1=36. This is the sign of the times, Latinos going after each other and hating, latinos cant graduate from high school and figure out x squared, oh boy this is great........

January 31, 2006 12:47 PM  

Anonymous El Gringo said:

Oh heck,,,, i even forgot, latinos are falsefying their college educations, saying they went to UCLA but never stating they graduated, HUH cindy...oh in reality did you go to UCLA but only work in the cafeteria.......

January 31, 2006 12:51 PM  

Blogger ubrayj02 said:

Here you go El Bigoto: an article about rural white people's dumb children.

I guess they'll be dancing in the streets of the barrio tonight...

It's pathetic that you would cheer ignorance and failure in our public institutions. I hope that one of those ignorant children is your home hospice caretaker in your old age. When they miscalculate how much medicine you need to take that day, will it be funny then?

January 31, 2006 2:00 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Anon 1242
That's what Jim Hahn's people said. But tell Alex their cutting and pasting isn't so good, they need to contact some of those dudes in CD14 if they really want to do it right.

January 31, 2006 2:40 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

el gringo = Padilla cut and paste team. The Eliseo of Pacoima.

January 31, 2006 2:41 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

12:42...
due AP endorsements: Tony Cardenas (oh my!), Howard Berman, Greig Smith & other non-Valley councilmembers.

yes, he's racking up those 'endorsers.'

January 31, 2006 2:43 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Phil,

I generally take your word on these races and feel you have a good grip.

I get a feeling you are way off on this race though.

Nobody wants Felipe to be our Councilman here in 7.

Forget the money. Forget the endorsements. This race is going to shock you.

Cindy Mon-ten-YEZ is going to kick Padilla's corrupt ass from here to Sacramento and right back down HERE again.

See you Alex.

January 31, 2006 3:52 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Burkhardt is good. But not good enough for this. Hahn dumped him, right? Acevedo's name is trash.

You can expect this race with the Hahn supporters to pretty much pan out the way the Hahn/AV race did.

The women will be out there for Cindy in droves. You can take that to the bank.

January 31, 2006 3:56 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Ubray02: I'm glad to see that there are white people like you that are offended by this.

Mil Gracias.

January 31, 2006 4:02 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Felipe won't make it out past 2006 after this race, and with his health condition...he should explore other career options.

- American Heart Association

January 31, 2006 4:15 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

this is no one... dont mind this

January 31, 2006 4:19 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

an insider in AP's camp was just overheard talking about AP dropping out of the race based on his fear of the results from the negatives in the poll. i think this isbest so he can extend his career.

January 31, 2006 5:20 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

The blogger is right, Cindy will do better than Alex with white voters, especially the Jewish yentas in Studio City and Sherman Oaks.

January 31, 2006 8:25 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

5:14 AM writes...

Acevedo was connected to "La Colectiva" right?
Hmmmmmm??????

Wasn't La Colectiva the operation that handled Maribel de la Torre's - Cindy's sister - San Fernando city council campaign against two candidates backed by Acevedo. If anything, La Colectiva was connected to Cindy. I'm sure there's proof of that somewhere.

January 31, 2006 8:28 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

8:25 PM:

How idiotic are you? Take out a map of their district and show me how much of Sherman Oaks/Studio City is in that Senate Seat? Thats all Kuehl's district.

And as for the Jew vote...last I checked, Jews love the Sherman/Berman powerhour (who endorsed AP).

And I think that as for political endoresements...Feinstein and Boxer beat anything that Cindy has gotten.

January 31, 2006 10:22 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

10:22
"Sherman/Berman Powerhour"!! WHO?
Berman got punked into endorsing AP.... "Endorse me or I'll run against you next." Sherman will be smarter.

January 31, 2006 10:37 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Sherman isn't going with Alex.
Berman did it out fear, Alex is going to run against him when he loses the senate race anyway.

Phil Kracker:
"The money will make the difference and Padilla has raised about twice as much so far and is pulling away."

.... Alex just posted 390,000 USABLE cash on hand.
Isn't this the same guy braggin' in the daily news about raising 250,000 during his Sept fundraiser? Apparently not. oh boy, Gameboy is in trouble.

- PSP player

January 31, 2006 11:16 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

10:22

AV looked lovely tonight on national TV, didn't he? wouldn't you agree?

January 31, 2006 11:21 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

ok children stop fighting. Cindy wins the senate, alex run for congress and wins, and latinos take over the valley. their is enough room for all of us. oh yeah, alacorn takes the assembly.

January 31, 2006 11:57 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

ok children stop fighting. Cindy wins the senate, alex run for congress and wins, and latinos take over the valley. their is enough room for all of us. oh yeah, alacorn takes the assembly.

January 31, 2006 11:58 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

390,000......didnt he say it would be 1,000,000 or 2 million? council prez and that it. isn't there more developers he can hit up? alex is in trouble.......

February 01, 2006 12:04 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

is felipe wife's yolanda? because i could have sworn i saw alex macking on her the other day.

February 01, 2006 12:06 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Has anyone noticed how you never see Ackly (french for ugly)and yolanda at the same place? could it really be that Ackly and yolanda are the same person? put a wig on fat boy and tell me they dont look alike.

February 01, 2006 12:09 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Is Alex really thinking of droping out? i've heard he was having some troubles with his campaign but drop out. what else can he do if he does?

February 01, 2006 12:12 AM  

Blogger Laborthug said:

12:12:
Things he can do...
Finish the 3 yrs. left on his term? Fix a sidewalk? Pave any other street besides his mothers? Build that affordable housing whose monies James Acevedo pocketed? Bring some diversity to Pacoima business'? Put his staff on a diet? Come out the closet?

Just some ideas.

February 01, 2006 12:20 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Brad Sherman is a pussy who loves to get support but rarely gives it. His victories are HIS and not often shared. I can't think of a single good thing this Congressman has done for his constituents.

AP can have him. They make a good pair.

February 01, 2006 8:52 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

LA DAILY NEWS

Fundraising numbers in
Padilla leads Montañez in Valley contest

SACRAMENTO - City Councilman Alex Padilla has taken a fundraising lead in his battle with Assemblywoman Cindy Montañez for the state Senate seat representing the northeast San Fernando Valley, campaign finance reports filed Tuesday show.

Padilla raised $550,000 last year and had $478,000 cash on hand as of Dec. 31, reports show. Montañez, D-San Fernando, raised $438,000 last year and had $320,000 cash on hand.

February 01, 2006 10:17 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

LA DAILY NEWS

Fundraising numbers in
Padilla leads Montañez in Valley contest

SACRAMENTO - City Councilman Alex Padilla has taken a fundraising lead in his battle with Assemblywoman Cindy Montañez for the state Senate seat representing the northeast San Fernando Valley, campaign finance reports filed Tuesday show.

Padilla raised $550,000 last year and had $478,000 cash on hand as of Dec. 31, reports show. Montañez, D-San Fernando, raised $438,000 last year and had $320,000 cash on hand.

February 01, 2006 10:17 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

LA DAILY NEWS

Fundraising numbers in
Padilla leads Montañez in Valley contest

SACRAMENTO - City Councilman Alex Padilla has taken a fundraising lead in his battle with Assemblywoman Cindy Montañez for the state Senate seat representing the northeast San Fernando Valley, campaign finance reports filed Tuesday show.

Padilla raised $550,000 last year and had $478,000 cash on hand as of Dec. 31, reports show. Montañez, D-San Fernando, raised $438,000 last year and had $320,000 cash on hand.

February 01, 2006 10:18 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Once again Alex has accomplished more in a few months than Cindy has managed since she started this campaign. Good luck keeping up.

February 01, 2006 10:36 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Those are moderate #'s for BOTH candidates. A lot of Padilla's endorsements are based on the perception that he was into the hundreds of thousands of dollars & had AV's support--all lies.


Check how much money either candidate can actually use, you will be surprised.

February 01, 2006 10:49 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

FYI-- very little (if any) sacramento money on Alex's behalf. He can't milk his presidency anymore for local money. dead heat.

February 01, 2006 10:52 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

How desperate is Padilla's team? Check out this email sent out by his staff, using official city email address!
-----Original Message-----
From: Lidia Soto [mailto:Lidia.Soto@lacity.org]
Sent: Wednesday, February 01, 2006 12:17 PM
To: DELETED TO PROTECT THE INNOCENT
Subject: Need your help, please...

Hello,

As most of you know, I work for Councilmember Alex Padilla & he is
running for State Senate in Senate District 20 (Valley). We need help!
On Saturday, 2/4 from 10am-5pm, we're trying to get a lot of people
together so that we can get as many signatures as possible on petition
to place Alex Padilla's name on ballot. Please let me know if you'll be
able to join us. Please, please, please!!!

February 01, 2006 3:08 PM  

Anonymous El Gringo said:

Heres the best part; all these people talking on this blog are nothing more than individuals who hide behind anonymity and vomit out repulsive, ridiculously incongruous language. Is this consistant with latin politics, like in Mexico, Central or South America or even Cuba? The Future is really vague when we have the majority of the latino kids doing poorly in school, and then people that are backing up these candidates spewing venomous rhetoric, which, inflammatory, only hurts their kind. And they say I single out these people. Shut Up!! Maybe we should close the borders and leave out the filth that tramples our country. Until I see, at least in this blog, that sound and critical thinking of the elections this june and of its candidates, I am forced to prejudge, based on the unconventional behavior presented here by the "brown pride." Correct me through your actions and not your insults, Mexica Warriors. I have been to Mexico and seen their pride, the only bad thing; those that cross the border to the US are the worst of their society. Are you one of those?

February 01, 2006 3:22 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

3:08 p.m.:
WOuld you be willing to forward this e-mail?

February 01, 2006 6:16 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Mr. Gringo, you are just a belligerent jerk. How do you contribute to a meaningful policy debate?

February 01, 2006 6:34 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I hear Lidia has too much junk in the trunk.

February 01, 2006 10:59 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Linda......bad girl. you know you're going to lose your job for this. AP wont have your back. he all ready has to many in-house problems to deal with.

February 02, 2006 2:03 AM  

Anonymous El Gringo said:

Lastima que no se sepan el valor de la cultura Mexicana o de las otras culturas en Centro o Sud America. Lastima que solamente se encuntra la "chusma" de aya, aqui en este paiz. Adivinan? Se las dejo de tarea! aver como les quedo el ojo.

February 02, 2006 2:30 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

El Gringo - I've got one word for you. Xanax. Relax.

February 02, 2006 3:12 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Cindy's Got It In The BAG!

February 06, 2006 9:42 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

did anyone catch wind of the little incident at the padilla campain HQ involving the not so "honrable" Mr. Fuentes assulting a "Volenteer"? the wheels are coming of the band wagon!!!! we'll see how long it takes for the rest of the dirt to come crumbling down now that someone shook felipe's bag laids now is the time to come out of the shadows!!!!! go cindy!!!!

April 28, 2006 10:25 AM  

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