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Wednesday, January 26, 2005

Gay Democrats Go Villaraigosa

Tony Villar got himself an endorsement this time. Apparently Hahn staffers worked the room but to no avail.

By the way, we have heard rumors that some Democratic club somewhere endorsed Jimmy. But as much as the Mayor's staff loves to spend our tax dollars surfing this blog, they have not been kind enough to send us a press release to post as we offered. So we are not going to do their work for them since the other campaigns have no problems sending us stuff. If one of you morons know how to send an email to us, we'll post it.

By the way - aside to Fly on the Wall - any more screaming on the third floor lately?

Here is the word out of the Villaraigosa camp. They do know how to work with us.

Stonewall Democrats Endorse Villaraigosa

West Hollywood – The Los Angeles Stonewall Democratic Club voted to endorse Antonio Villaraigosa at their general membership meeting Monday night.

Supporters of Mayor Hahn, including City staff (driving their own cars this time), worked the room during the vote. In a move eerily reminiscent of Republican strong-arm tactics in the U.S. House, Hahn partisans repeatedly reopened the rolls to pressure members and line-up more supporters to attend the meeting.

In the end, Villaraigosa received 36 votes, three more than the required 60% threshold.

Villaraigosa expressed his gratitude at receiving the endorsement. “I am proud to have the Stonewall Democrats at my side in this race,” Villaraigosa said. “When I am Mayor, we are going to have an administration that looks like Los Angeles because I believe that diversity is our greatest asset.”

The Los Angeles Stonewall Democratic Club is a chapter of the national Stonewall Democratic Club, which supports gay and lesbian rights and endorses Democratic candidates. Villaraigosa also received the Los Angeles Club’s endorsement in 2001.


Anonymous Anonymous said:

Jimmy Blackman was there. Unclear if he's on Antonio's campaign payroll or draws government salary.

January 26, 2005 12:25 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Well, at what time is the meeting??? That's an important piece that the previous blogger didn't mention, as that would provide more information.

January 26, 2005 12:36 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Jimmy Blackman is getting paid by Antonio's staff. The meeting was Monday night. No city cars were involved either, at least on the Antonio side.

January 26, 2005 12:59 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Recall Group to Villaraigosa: "How much is your Pledge Worth?" The Recall Committee poses an interesting question. Why wait until you are mayor, act on your pledges now and "take personal responsibility for (your) own actions? We all remember Antonio PLEDGED to the people of the 14th. district that he wouldn't run for mayor! Therefore, the Recall Committee urges Villaraigosa to PULL OUT OF THE RACE FOR MAYOR or RESIGN from his council seat. Show some integrity Antonio. Show the people of Los Angeles that your list of pledges is not a political ploy.

January 26, 2005 2:45 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:


How can the recall follks have time to blog or even e-mail, you guys are WAY BEHIND on your signatures, don't you even care about getting those.

Oh yeah, i forgot you guys are funded (not with much money though) by sleazy alcohol peddlers using crazy homeless activist/Nadar supporters to do the dirty work of people that are too afraid to show their faces. Why else ask people to donate $99 bucks, the thresholod right before it becomes public information.

There is NO RECALL, its just a way to get folks all stirred up because when you are behind (like Hahn) you throw Hell Mary's like this a fake recall to see if that sticks.

In fact i read a fascinating analysis by blogger Martini Republic:


Noam Levey is talking to some political consultants who are either innocently misreading Mayor Hahn's true political strategy or sinisterly misleading the worthy scribe.

But the face-off between Hahn and Hertzberg is becoming a more pronounced feature of the campaign and might be an indication of how the beleaguered mayor is plotting to keep his job.

Several political observers and other campaign strategists speculated this week that Hahn's advisors would rather be in a runoff with Villaraigosa than with Hertzberg.

Noam Levey, Los Angeles Times, "As Race Heats Up, Hahn Aims Some Heavy Fire at Hertzberg," 1/24/04

Reporting this much, Levey is doing his job, and even responsibly, I think. But some graying Nestor on the op-ed page, however, might like to read the entrails here, and divine the true purpose of the Hahn heat on Hertzberg.


FWIW, I see things upside down of nearly everyone quoted in the article. It's all poker.

Hahn wants to run against Hertzberg, which is why he's singling him out.

By drawing so much attention to him, Hahn is only elevating Hertzberg, of course. This is a primary, not the big dance. In the eyes of those who are determined not to vote for the Mayor, Hahn's railing is counterpoint to its true political intent. He's actually marginalizing Antonio as best he can among the candidates.


From Hahn's POV, there are two kinds of voters at this point: for Hahn, and against Hahn. They're running about 30-35% for Hahn and 65-70% against Hahn right now.

Hahn has great brand recognition. But people who vote in apparent primaries aren't into brands, they're into quality of goods. The smorgasbord here has something for every taste. Primary voters get to vote their passion, not merely for a lesser among evils.

By singling out the third place candidate, and elevating him as best he can--maybe even turning him into candidate number two--Hahn can more easily splinter votes away from a weakened, defeated Antonio later.

Hahn in the runoff will need:

1) all the people who vote for him in the primary; and
2) about 35%, maybe even less (!), of the people who don't vote for either him or the other runoff candidate in the primary. (The percentage of voters who figure to vote for neither Hahn or the other runoff candidate figures to be about 45%).

So the question for Hahn is not precisely "Who can I do better against right now?" It is more precisely, Which losing candidate, between Antonio and Hertzberg, is more likely to produce a lesser-of-two-evils, Hahn-tolerant vote farm?


Answer: it's a losing, disgruntled Antonio voter, not a losing, disgruntled Hertzberg voter.

Among Antonio voters, Hahn can pander to and persuade eastside and northwest and south-central Latinos far more easily than Hertzberg can. At worst for Hahn, they simply stay home. But Antonio is way better equipped to pander to losing Hertzberg Vals than he was to losing Soboroff Vals this time around. Not to forget: in 2001, losing primary candidate Soboroff won the Valley; then, Hahn gobbled up the most third place votes in the runoff).

Also: losing, liberal Hertzberg Vals will not stay home in the 2005 runoff, which makes them a bigger problem for Hahn this time, the way losing Antonio Latinos are likely to stay home should the runoff pit Hahn against Bob Hertzberg.


Four years ago, Hahn beat Antonio in (Soboroff's) Valley by 12% and thereby won the election.

Since 2001, however, secessionist parochialism, decreasing xenophobia, slightly increasing liberalism, and inherent moral rectitude (F-H scandal is bigger in the Valley, whose voters sneer at it as yet more evidence that those folk downtown are up to no good) in LA's most conservative quarter will all conspire to make the Valley less warm to Hizzoner this time around.

Antonio makes up 6 points or so? I think so. And I think this is what Hahn people fear most of all.

Forgive me. Back to the hammock.

January 26, 2005 2:57 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Good points MEAT, but I think Hahn is toast against either Hertzberg or Antonio.

The Valley voters have not forgotten what Hahn and has done. And he has continued to piss off the most activist of them.

If its Antonio, the Hertzbergistas will join with the Latinos and others to knock out Hahn.

If its Huggy, sure the Unions will go to war not for Hahn but for their own survival, but business smelling potential victory will pony up for Bob. Bob puts together a wacky coalition of pissed off Valley folks (who are not only pissed off but love Huggy anyway), Blacks smelling blood for JH, Jews, Westside limousine liberals and a good chunk of Latinos who know Bob is a friend. Throw in the old folks - especially the old Jewish ladies who vote in higher numbers than anyone - and you have a Hertzberg victory.

Another thing in Bob's favor is that he's Bob. Sobroff was another empty republican suit like Riordan (who had the advantage of running against Mike Woo who made even Gray Davis and Jim Hahn look colorful). Bob knows how to charm the media, has interesting ideas, knows how to speak and doesn't come off like the usual LA pol. He'll have fun and people will warm to that.

January 26, 2005 3:39 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

New Frontier Democratic Club has endorsed Hahn (South LA club--big). FYI

January 26, 2005 3:56 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:



I will conveniently forget everything I pledged on the first day.

Antonio Villaraigosa

January 26, 2005 5:15 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

What we all want to know is why is Huggy acting so pussy with Antonio. We all know he has dirt on him and that stupid pact they made isn't going to get him in the run-off. Huggy needs to be more aggressive and want it bad enough. I just don't see him wanting it as bad as Antonio. If Huggy would have come out in the beginning with his cops budget plan he would be way ahead of Antonio. He needs to sticl to it now and move forward aggressively not like a whimp.

January 26, 2005 5:35 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:



If elected, I will serve a full 4-year term and will not run for mayor.


January 26, 2005 5:42 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Its because Bob values friendship and would never sink as low as James Hahn would.

January 26, 2005 5:43 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

There's a pact between Villaraigosa and Hertzberg? What is it?

January 26, 2005 5:58 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I got to be very careful. There are about a handful of us in the office that are MS (Mayor Sam not the gang - dum dum).

The city's IT people have been to our offices more in the last 2 weeks than in he last 3 years "Fixing Stuff". Bullsh**!!! I think they are tracking stuff.

Got to run...

More to follow...

There is whole lotta cussen' goin' on here. Full report to follow.

The Fly

January 26, 2005 8:20 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:


The reason why Hertzberg has his sights on Hahn is easy -- Hahn is tanking and is the weakest among the top 3.

As to why Hertzberg is nice to Antonio - simple, he knows if he gets in the run-off with Hahn he needs an Antonio endorsement to put him over the top. However, i believe Antonio is in the run-off and its a race for 2nd place between Hahn and Hertzberg.

Go hertzberg!

blog away.

January 26, 2005 10:52 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

An endorsement from Antonio will hurt Hertzberg. Antonio is slowly sinking and if Hertzberg was smart he would distance himself from Tony and quick. All this nice guy crap is going to hurt Huggy. Dumb move last week telling Tony, "I won't tell and neither will you." What kind of whimp shit is that? Tony has made alliances with that loser Parks. Bad move. Parks isn't being supported by his own district. A lot of the African Americans are going with Hahn. Hertzberg needs to get more aggressive, focus on one key issue and get going.

January 27, 2005 9:27 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I agree with the previous post. What was that "I won't tell and neither will you" thing. Hertzberg's misguided, badly run campaign is going to let Villaraigosa in.

January 27, 2005 10:01 PM  

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