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Thursday, April 25, 2013

Survey USA Reports Good Numbers for Wendy Greuel in Poll her Consultant Calls "Bogus"

What does private citizen/political consultant John Shallman say about Survey USA, which just reported some good numbers for his client, candidate for Mayor Wendy Greuel, from their latest robo-poll?

This poll is bogus and contrary to every public and private survey we've seen. Everyone knows that robo call polls are inaccurate. In fact, ABC's polling director Gary Langer was quoted in the Hill Newspaper in 2011 saying, "We don't regard autodialed, pre-recorded polls as valid and reliable survey research." The Survey USA poll is misleading and projects a 63% turnout which would nearly triple the voter turnout from previous municipal elections.

Of course, Shallman said that in January when Survey USA had Eric Garcetti up several points over his client. But still, when you get some good news, even if it's an anemic lead, you have to praise it and say that those Survey USA rascals must have their act together!

Of course, to be clear, past Survey USA polls giving an edge to Garcetti were praised by the Council Member's team, and now, Garcetti spokesman, Jeff Millman is poo poo-ing the latest survey. 

The LA Weekly does point out some potential problems and unexplainable shifts in the current Survey USA poll and indeed, it's not at all in sync with a LA Times/USC poll, that shows significant problems for Greuel. The bottom line is that reality is somewhere in the middle, and confirms the ground observation of many political watchers that Garcetti has a lead with key groups and that Greuel is being forced to fight a ground game on turf where she is supposed to be strong and thus not able to concentrate in communities where she is weak and needs to pick up votes.

When more polls come out in next several days we'll see if the Survey USA poll has weight or is just robo-called noise in needs of lot of "sanity check" justification.

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Blogger Paul Hatfield said:

I have to assume the USC/LAT poll is the better engineered of the two. It is based on far superior local knowledge. Plus, a 60+% turnout assumption is just plain science fiction.

April 26, 2013 12:51 PM  

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