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Sunday, April 21, 2013

Times/USC: Garcetti Surges to 10% lead over Greuel

Eric Garcetti joins LA River supporters Saturday
With the election looming next month to decide Los Angeles’ next mayor, Eric Garcetti has extended his lead over Wendy Greuel to a double-digit margin, according to results of a new USC Sol Price School of Public Policy/LA Times Los Angeles City Election Poll.

L.A. City Council member Eric Garcetti is favored by 50 percent of voters compared to 40 percent for City Controller Wendy Greuel.

The news comes on the heels of dueling public events held Saturday by both candidates; Greuel held an event with former President Bill Clinton at Langer's Deli while Garcetti met with locals in Tujunga at Joselito's Mexican Restaurant and in Atwater Village with supporters of the LA River.

Key findings of the poll:
  • Despite Greuel’s historic bid to become L.A.’s first female mayor, she trails among women. Half of female voters back Garcetti and 41 percent support Greuel, the poll showed. Men backed Garcetti over Greuel, 51 percent to 38 percent.
  • Latinos and younger voters backed Garcetti by still wider margins. The city councilman from Silver Lake has strengthened his standing in the central city and Eastside neighborhoods that he won decisively in the March primary. He has also built a solid lead on the Westside — a key target of Greuel's.
  • Most critically for Greuel, her support in the San Fernando Valley, her home base, is tepid at best. Fellow blogger and author Joseph Mailander, following an analysis of precinct by precinct results a few days after the March primary correctly predicted that the battle would come to be fought on Greuel's turf, not Garcetti, a tactical disadvantage for any candidate. Having to fight to shore up your base diverts from the effort to capture additional votes in communities where you may not have performed strongly previously.
  • Ironically, the liberal Garcetti has emerged with a lopsided lead among conservatives citywide, picking up support from many of those who voted in the primary for Republican radio personality Kevin James, now a Garcetti backer.
Despite this good news for Garcetti, the election is a month away and that's a lifetime in politics; anything can happen. So expect lots more TV, radio, Pandora, etc. commercials and mailers in your mailbox for another four weeks as the candidates seek to solidify - and gain additional - support.

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Blogger Joseph Mailander said:

Just for the record, there's a big flaw in that poll: the "likely voters" are self-identifying. I guess someone at the org felt that they should be identifying likely voters, so they just asked the respondents if they were likely to vote. Most polling orgs devise their own algorithms to determine who's likely to vote. I would estimate the MOE for this poll because of that single fact is approximately double what they state it is. It's still good news for Garcetti, but this poll is not as conclusive as it purports to be.

April 22, 2013 11:31 AM  

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