The LA Times Poll
Three candidates for mayor of Los Angeles are locked in a statistical tie for the lead in next week's election, with incumbent James K. Hahn and challengers Bob Hertzberg and Antonio Villaraigosa battling for two slots in a likely May runoff, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.Hertzberg has got to be happy with the result. The wave he is riding is quickly overcoming the entire field. Things will probably change when Hahn goes negative (I'm guessing today after the yelling subsides on the third floor)
The survey found a surge in support for Hertzberg, a Sherman Oaks lawyer and former state Assembly speaker. Over the last month, as he has aired distinctive television ads, his popularity has risen across a range of constituencies that helped propel Hahn into office four years ago: whites, San Fernando Valley residents, Republicans, conservatives, moderates and Jewish voters.
Hahn has clearly plateaud. He has spent over $900,000 on an ad buy that hasn't bought him a single point in the polls. The buzz is clearly that he is in real trouble.
Villaraigosa is once again validated as the front runner, but needs to tread cautiously, as Hertzberg's momentum and another last minute smear from Hahn could drag him down within striking distance.
Posted by Anonymous @ 3/01/2005 07:29:00 AM
61 Comments:
Oh, hell yeah! Run with the wind Antonio and shut the circle of jerk of recallers up....
Wrong, Mayor Sam.
This is not a 'three horse race'.
Thisis a 'two horse race + one existing jack ass'.
Hahaha. Every expert I've heard thinks Villaraigosa is finished. Hahn beats him for sure in the runoff and Hertzberg probably does. The "circle of jerk recallers" are very flattered to have so much attention from Villaraigosa's supporters (or staffers or advisors). As was said on another post on this site, the recall has a better chance of succeeding than Antonio has of becoming mayor!
Hey, thanks for the truly insightful analysis, everybody!
Every expert I've heard thinks the Earth is flat and that pigs can fly, too. So watch out!
To the 8.52 poster. We are talking to different experts. You must be talking to MEAT.
Everyone calm down. Hahn has picked up with Latinos and Westsiders. Antonio is not doing as well with this poll as he did in 2001. Let's not forget that LAT endorsed ADV and Huggy and you can bet they want to fudge those numbers so they don't look like IDIOTS. Sorry previous poster. I hear Antonio is so disliked in council chambers everyone is hoping he goes to WA DC. Hey, MEAT where is your boss these next couple of days he asked for days off from council?
Well, 9:11... MY experts will kick YOUR experts' ass!
Also, yes, I wholeheartedly agree with conspiracy theorists like the 9:16 poster. I'm sure the LA Times is fudging their polling numbers. Totally makes sense to me!
Again, you guys go ahead and believe whatever you need to to make yourselves happy and satisfied. Don't let some troubling facts get in the way... especially when you can round up your "experts" to tell you what you want to hear!
Sacramento:
Hey, did you get a look at Villaraigosa's favorables among Latinos in the LA Times poll?
81%.
As much as I support and admire Villaraigosa (and he will get into the runoff), the poll is not as signficant as the results of next week's vote. This is a close race between seasoned politicians. So keep your campaign spin till the day of the election. Your predictions are noted in my little notebook for the post-campaign spin.
Sacs...many of the Hertzberg supporters were and are Villaraigosa supporters...both those in the Valley and the Westside. They are supporting their friend and local boy. There's nothing new to that. There's nothing you can spin on that. Some of these people will have a real challenge if Villaraigosa and Hertzberg make the runoff...but don't give me this divisive bs.
The dynamics of this race have changed from the last election...pure and simple so unless your Raphael Sonenshein (who is always right) don't give me your halfass campaign analysis.
Capice?
Have you noticed how the Villaraigosa supporters have brought the posts on this issue down to the gutter? I think it's just sinking in that their boy probably won't win in a runoff. Didn't I hear Raphael say that on the radio this morning?
Sorry about the redundancy, I just like that number 81% for some reason.
Sac, you could take a lesson from the lillies of the field, clearly you do not toil, you might consider dropping the spinning too. Your attempt to paint a gloomy portrait for AV by comparing general election results with a pre-primary poll are truly hysterical.
Gee I would have thought the way Huggy and ADV have been bragging those pol numbers would be in the high 70's. There not even after all the shit they've been attacking Hahn on. Hahn has picked up a lot of support on the Eastside and CD14. Especially because he ignored his constituents and voted against giving them a voice. I hear they are livid and will show him.
To the last blogger, you should pay closer attention to what's going on. Hahn hasn't moved for months despite spending nearly a million dollars. In fact, he lost a point, although it's within the margin of error. He hasn't picked up diddly-squat.
As for Hertzberg and Villaraigosa, for this campaign, if you understood campaigns, you'd realize that they're doing exceptionally well in a field of 5 democratic candidates.
I hear this, and I hear that... BLAH BLAH BLAH. Look, I hear that:
1) Hahn likes to play with goats in "interesting ways"
2) Villaraigosa would put a King Taco in every community in L.A>
3) Alarcon is using his commercials to try out for NBC's "The Contender 2"
4) Hertzberg loves to give hugs because that's what Michael Jackson uses to get kids to drink the Jesus Juice.
5) Bernard Parks is really a robot.
Does any of this have any credibility??? There's a reason why newspapers like L.A. Times and Daily News are more credible than the National Enquirer. While some of you have legitimate criticisms about Tony V's office, I KNOW that there are several cry babies in the area that don't have any real reasons why to oppose him other than because they are high-maintenance people. I tend to believe that those posting on here are more cry babies than constituents with real concerns.
I find no validity in whatever "SacramentoNighties" says on this blog. I thought this person was making sense early on when our discussions were meaningful, but this person who is quite informative and well-connected (so I presume) must have a personal bone to pick with the "worst CM in the history of CD 14." I won't ask why or who cause its meaningless to me.
By the way SacramentoNighties...you remind me of Dennis Miller...you always have a rant. How about keeping the long and redundant comments for the Sunday opinion section of the LA Times or Daily News?
Rant away...
How come the high maintenance "cry-babys" only cry when Tony V's in office, then? Is it (maybe) because he's been an "absentee" daddy?
He asked for the job, didn't he? Didn't he kick somebody else out to get it? Did the big bully really not want the toy he stole from the other kid who was playing happily with it on the beach? Was it just because he COULD take it? Now he's throwing it away because there's another shinier toy he wants to grab for.
To bad that new toy's eternally out-of-reach.
Hey Sac-hater, you accused his of being long, but you post 100+ words just to say "I don't believe you, shut up, go away." Practice what you rant.
sac: I know you want to believe the misinformation you spew, but it is unsustainable.
AV is much stronger than he was in 2001. He has, by far, the highest favorables of any candidate -- 66% favorable to 22% unfavorable.
He is 76 - 13 among Democrats, 61 - 27 among whites, 81 - 11 (there's that number again) among Latinos. 61 - 26 in the Valley. He's even 43 - 40 among Republicans.
And here's the big difference, he is 65 favorable to 13 unfavorable among African Americans. Hahn is 56 - 35 and Hertzberg is 19 -17.
If AV splits the African American vote with Hahn in the run-off, he wins.
...and you don't have to be a deist to quote the bible. After all, you've proven you don't have to be intelligent to quote Gertrude Stein.
rant away
is that short enough?
I think Sacramento may be gaining on MEAT as the most insulted poster on the blog. Maybe that race will end up being as close as the mayors.
I totally agree with Sacramento. He is smart when he posts his arguments. IF ADV was so great why has Hahn picked up major Latino support? No doubt LAT is exaggerating the numbers on the Latinos (45% no way for ADV) and ADV can kiss his voters from CD14 goodbye. Huggy would love to think he has Latino support on the Eastside but that's just not true. I think the big yellow bus tour scared the Latinos away.
WHOA, just checking back in. That KABC bot-poll is looking WAY the heck off base now that some other, larger samplings show the race close. That one had AV up by 17 over Hahn and by 22 over Hertzberg. Who the heck was that machine dialing? Someone's gonna look really bad in a week, one way or the other. If it does come down to the wire, SurveyUSA may have to rent itself out to do MovieFone tapings instead of surveys. That's a HUGE, maybe even suspect differential.
WHOA, just checking back in. That KABC bot-poll is looking WAY the heck off base now that some other, larger samplings show the race close. That one had AV up by 17 over Hahn and by 22 over Hertzberg. Who the heck was that machine dialing? Someone's gonna look really bad in a week, one way or the other. If it does come down to the wire, SurveyUSA may have to rent itself out to do MovieFone tapings instead of surveys.
Since all the big media's been heard from -- anyone care that the LA Downtown News freebie endorsed Hahn yesterday? (Worth a shot).
Tony V. launched his final primary TV ad. It's entitled "Dedicated" and features his wife. (Does this guy have big bronze one's or WHAT?)
--------
3/1/2005 - Antonio launches final primary campaign TV ad
Today the Villaraigosa campaign launched its final TV ad of the primary campaign. Entitled “Dedicated,” the new ad introduces Corina Villaraigosa, Antonio’s wife and a teacher for 20 years, while highlighting a primary theme of the Villaraigosa campaign – restoring trust and confidence in Los Angeles city government.
Holy crap, are you kidding me - with that title? Doesn't anyone on his media team check the juxtaposition of these elements, for "snicker" effect. I think his campaign's still trying to bait someone into going personal so they can play victim.
That is so ballsy of him. Especially cause everyone knows he has kids out of wedlock andhas cheated on her more times than I would want to count. Its interesting that you never see Corina with him at events but Bitter Bernie's Bobbi always goes with him. Does he really think he can play all of us for fools as if we don't know any better?
I don't want to get into the personal stuff, other than to comment on the campaign tactic. Since some of the background has been in every major profile done on him, he's takes a risk here by holding up his spouse like some campaign prop to show that she's behind him (read between the lines - "in spite of everything you read in the Times, DN, etc.") and that he's a changed man, just like all the references to going back to church, etc. Being mayor isn't like president -- it's not like the "first lady" plays a major role and needs to run the gauntlet for voters. She could just as easily stay in the background, no harm done. It could just as easily backfire and alienate some, that he's putting her on display for political gain -- news profile details considered. I'm sure advisors told him just the opposite -- "it'll show you're a good family man," but it may not be as "gutsy" as it is foolhardy if it reminds people of something other than "dedication."
I doubt think they're thinking "changed" as much as "still together" (vs. the personal and marital history of other candidates).
He needs to get a share of the Republicans voting for him. Ace Smith told him to do it.
What ADV has done though is open the door to "personal stuff." I can tell you this may backfire with female voters. We all know what he did because like someone said its all documented and the media went crazy with it. Pathetic he is using his wife (and she being that dumb) for his political career. She sure wasn't good enough to put out there when he cheated on her in Sacramento. Females see Corina as a very weak vulnerable woman. Yes some will say she is loyal to ADV but damn how many times do you have to be publicily humilated to realize you're just a pawn?
You anonymous smearmeisters commenting on Antonio's marriage are despicable. A whole lot of people in this world have had rocky personal lives - probably some of you poster poseurs as well. And a number of the other candidates as well.
The story here is that AV and his wife stuck it out and kept their family together. And the relationship is very strong, loving and mutually supportive. Corina doesn't need your hypocritical sympathy or assistance.
You sicken me.
FROM MEAT:
Couple of fun things today.
So if you were asking yourself why haven't i posted today -- very, very simple. I went to Hahn's press conference today to see him have a total meltdown. He looked at Mark Coogan right in the eyes and went insane. "i'm tired of the mudslinging, i've lost my patience, i've had it". Looking like an insane tiger, with his staff trying to keep reporters from asking any more questions, he then goes on a tirade on Ace Smith, who i am sure had a nice big smile on his face.
Then i hop on over (in my 87 honda civic) to Bob's press event, where i get to go into the channel 7 news van and have them show me how they are going to edit lil jimmy into an insane mayor today. Damn those editors!
As for people talking about Corina, let's not forget she was in Antonio's ads 4 years ago, so everyone calm down. She campaigned at the Northeast Dem event and handed lil jimmy his butt, when Antonio got the endorsement for not even being there.
As for the LA Times poll -- and everyone else's wrong assumptions let's do this.
Mayor Sam -- create a new post where its all predictions and nothing but. People can e-mail them to you or post them on the comments section -- basically only people that ID themselves get to play.
Give your predictions and the reason why you believe what you believe -- so on election day i can laugh at everyone who was wrong or you can laugh at me. Buuttt this also means that besides the actual vote totals which we will know on election night, we are all going to have to rely on the LA Times exit poll to show us how each candidate did with Latino's, Dems, Reps, Valley and non-valley and so on.
Mayor sam or chief parker -- if you start that post today - it should be a popular one.
here are my numbers
Antonio-32
Hahn-24.2
Hertzberg-24.1
Parks-12
Alarcon-6
Others - 1%
Valley -- Bob, Antonio Hahn
Non-Valley-- Antonio, Hahn (parks and bob too close)
Lats -- Antonio, Hahn Alarcon
Dems - Antonio, Hahn, Bob
Reps -- Bob, Hahn Antonio
blog away dum-dums
p.s. love to see what hahn dropped today at 1pm when his ad flight changed.
Here you go MEAT..On Tuesday, we recommend that Los Angeles voters stay the course and re-elect Mayor James Hahn.
Anything that has been in the media is open season and hell yes ADV's life has been an open book cause he doesn't know how to be discreet. Have you ever noticed how he gropes and kisses women whenever he attends an event? Women hate that and have told him not to touch them or take it upon himself to think its ok. Its sexual harrassement.
MEAT you are such a loser yet amaze me how you just prove what others say about you. That you don't have a life. Stalking the Mayor! Hey, we're not the ones who posted the ad about Corina. It was a ADV supporter. Women I know citywide really feel sorry for her. WE don't blame her. ADV is the one to blame for all the cheating and carousing he does behind her back.
Oh MEAT that endorsement for Mayor Hahn was from the Daily Breeze. You know that WESTSIDE PAPER.
This is a tough one. On one hand you have to respect every candidate's personal life, particularly when spouse and kids are involved. Most agree those attacks are off limits.
But what do you do when the candidate uses their spouse as a "character reference" and the public history doesn't match up with what the spouse is saying?
I'm not passing judgement on anyone and don't claim to know how some candidate's personal relationships work. But I'm not sure if I'd choose to put my spouse in a tough situation.
I don't like Bitter Bernie at all and he's a joke in this race. However, I didn't like how the LAT made fun of his wife Bobbi and their marriage of 35 years. I don't particularly care for her either but I do give them both credit for keeping it together that long and not one time have we ever heard of Bernie straying. LAT actually made fun that they have been together that long. This is the same newspaper that endorsed ADV and Huggy. Go figure!
MEAT, you lost the right to challenge anyone here - "identified" or no - with numeric information. Not until you show the 81 percent approval rating ADV has in district 14 (your numbers). Not until you prove you REALLY know how many people are behind the ADV recall and have signed the petition (your claim). Not until you can back up all your other spaced out, wannabe-induced calculations.
So you post some absurd numbers here today, and you're WAY off base next Tuesday. All you gotta do then is swap out your fake online identity for a new one and start over, bashing whoever you are against in the runoff, as a "new" poster. VEGETABLE or MINERAL. Big deal! Go play with yourself, AND your numbers until you can deliver on past BS figures. People here have already been keeping "tallies" on you, and your math sucks bigtime.
I just saw the (new) Villaraigosa ad, and all I could think is: Hasn't he put this woman through enough? Now it's PAINFULLY clear he's using his wife to look like he's into what, "public education." He "feels her pain." What comes across is, here's his well-intentioned wife (teacher) used to show AV's compassion, (but only for the camera). Yuk,yuk,yuk!!!!
For the anonymous poster upset about comments on the candidate's marriage -- just remember, he's put it out there, on TV, now. The comments are about his USE of his marriage.
But I have to agree with one point. They seem very "loving." After watching ADV in action for almost two years on the Eastside (elapsed time in office, 28.4 days), I'm sure they both love Antonio very much.
We're all adults in here. Let's all be honest I'm sure all of us have seen ADV at one time or another at events and the way he acts with women when Corina is not around. I'm sure even MEAT has seen it. He's very touchy feely, he kisses passionately when greeting women, and gropes them where his hands shouldn't be touching. Now he wants to pretend he's the nice honorable family man? I don't think so and neither will women who know better
"Have you ever noticed how he gropes and kisses women whenever he attends an event?"
I think you are mistaken for Bob Hertzberg
You guys are worse than the paparazzi on Robertson and Beverly in LA...scum, pure scum
"4-5 ADV® groupies that post on his own campaign blog (it's a GRAVEyard over there..."
That was funny SackFullofNuts. You should be in the Def Comedy Jam. I think the 4-5 groupies post on this site to counter the 4-5 groupies such as yourself who have found a career in bashing Villaraigosa
RE: "just remember, he's put it out there, on TV, now."
Don't delude yourself. Do you really think that because Villaraigosa's wife, a teacher, appears in an ad about education that you have free reign to post whatever slimy, anonymous charges you can concoct about their family?
Pathetic. Shameless.
Sure he put it out there. Corina is one of the nicest women I have ever met. She is a good woman. Screw you for slamming her. I take that personally as if she was a member of my own family. So watch your back
Hello, Mr. Idiot poster, complaining that MEAT doesn't have sources for his 81% approval claim among Latinos?
Why don't you spend a little time... ummm... what do you call that... READING? I know it's a foreign concept to you, but you really should do a little bit of research before spouting off.
If you did, you'd have already seen the LAT poll internals, which are found at:
http://a1022.g.akamai.net/f/1022/8158/5m/images.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2005-02/16491406.pdf
To hold your hand so all those numbers don't make your head explode, check out the top of page 13 (question 27), that breaks down Antonio's approval numbers among different groups. You'll see 81-11 favorable/unfavorable numbers among Latinos.
Enjoy, dum dums.
I don't think people are insulting Corina.
Corina shame on you batter girl! I guess when you been marry for 20 years to a cheater and lair I guess it rubs off on you. First, you do not even teach for LAUSD. Second, your kids go to private school. Finally, what balls you have lying to the voters of Los Angeles about your cheating husband. Corina, have more respect for yourself, and do not defend his sad ass.
I guess some people have a problem with making sure that they spell-check their posts. I'm sure that hooked on phonics didn't work for them.
These babies need to either get their baby bottles or go back and suck on their mother's nipples. Grow up, talk about shit that matters, or get back to your circled room and try to find a corner where to sit down at.
Attacking the candidate's wife for non-political issues is a sign of fear and cowardice in the opposition. Those people who post non-supported attacks on candidates, and I say especially in this case on Villaraigosa, are signs of futility and childishness.
To the pathetic anon who tried to back up MEAT's false claim that he had PROOF there was a job-approval poll earlier this year that showed ADV had an 81 percent approval rating IN HIS OWN DISTRICT:
Get a clue, moron, CD14 is NOT L.A. City; CD 14 is NOT all Latino; all Latino's don't live in CD14; generic "favorable impressions" in a mayoral poll of a few dozen Latinos are not JOB approvals for a city councilmember. You're nearly as racist as you are mathematically and ethically challenged to even suggest some of these. This Times poll taken last week that shows ADV's campaign losing steam is NOT the fake Mellman poll MEAT re-invented in his lovesick, pea-brain weeks ago.
I have a "favorable impression" of my mail carrier, but I don't want him performing a heart bypass on me.
You're not grabbing at straws, your clutching your own genitals. Your lies pale in comparison to those of your mentor, "Two-faced Tony Villaraigosa," but you're learning. Keep spinning, and in May when he has to go back to being a lowly CM in a district that has nearly as much distaste for him as he has for his job, you can both "pretend" he's your mayor, too.
(Nice try, mini-MEAT; reduced by shame and disgrace to posting anonymously. You are still on the hook for this and many other false claims). Your numbers for the primary are a JOKE!
At least MEAT had the balls to post his predictions for Tuesday... so far all I've seen from you is bluster.
Why don't you put your money where your (considerably large) mouth is?
Easy to take potshots at other people's predictions when you're not going out on a limb yourself, dum dum.
MEAT...I'm sure the polls would have been a lot different if the stories in today's LAT about your boss ADV and Huggy taking money from special interests and Huggy's law firm were printed on Monday. Gotta be a little worried by now MEAT..
NO, "easy to take potshots at other people's predictions" - when those people have NEVER been correct with anything numeric. Should we APPLAUD this moron for consistently posting BAD, unsupported numbers, simply because he's done it again? I'd hate to see the employee incentive program where you work. Failed again? "Good boy" - we applaud your effort, move to the next level!
Sounds like a LAUSD teacher speaking.
MEAT's new numbers only prove again he a bad, unlucky, compulsive gambler. Make up some more numbers, throw them out there, hope you guess right (for once), and hope nobody notices when you're wrong again. Take your "system" to Pachonga -- you'll have better luck beating the house there.
FROM MEAT:
Not worried, sorry. I posted a guess people, i was challenging others to do the same. If you want to take shots at me, great. There's nothing in today's LA Times that worried me, what Antonio raised money for the democrats, people in democrat leaning LA read this and are suppose to revolt. Please.
I think the story that worry's me most is Doane Liu claiming the next city budget will include more police, how exactly? Who knows, apperently the mayor doesn't.
Whatever, bring election day here, so i can focus on one person. One candidate, one target, one dirty little hump to roll over.
blog away
"...one dirty little hump to roll over."
Please don't provide us with information about your physical deformities or bad hygiene. They're not related to the subject matter here.
Of course it was a guess -- that's what we've been saying all along; you have no insight, and a very bad track record. You also don't own up to your mistakes and misstatements when caught.
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