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Monday, February 14, 2005

Can I Get Your Digits?*

polling numbers
Being Valentine's day and all, how could I resist a headline like that. Back to the topic. The art of polling.

Odds are we will be blitzed with 18 different polls which can be disected in just about 100 different ways over the coming three weeks. The spinners wil be dizzy by the end of this, pulling out just the convienent nuggets of info they think project their likelyhood of winning. We already see it in our comments every time someone releases their internal numbers. The newest poll out is released from Hertzberg's camp which came quick on the heals of the Times poll two weeks ago.

Villaraigosa is touting the KABC poll here.*

Make of them what you will, because it sure produces a response from all of you (view comments).

*I would have included this earlier, but I think I was removed from their spam list...

.

29 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"Figures lie and liars figure."

February 14, 2005 9:21 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Remember that in a multi-candidate race four years ago, Villaraigosa had the highest showing in the primary (30 percent), and then head-to-head with a more moderate-appearing candidate only added 15 more points from the remaining 45 percent that favored lesser candidates in the primary. He will probably make the runoff, then fizzle as before. He has the narrowest appeal to the broadest audience in a two-way.

February 14, 2005 9:42 AM  

Anonymous boifromtroy said:

I wonder why Villaraigosa's poll leaves out Hertzberg?!?

In the LAT poll, Hertzberg's name id was 4-1 favorable.

February 14, 2005 10:23 AM  

Blogger J. Harriman said:

Hey Nony 2:

Finally, a coherent argument. Thank you.

The question is: How much of the 3rd, 4th, and 5th place vote can Villaraigosa consolidate in a general.

A big chunk of that vote will belong to Parks, mostly African AMerican vote at this point as Bob strips Valley Reps from Bernanrd. AV is clearly in a much better position to capture a big piece of the Af-Am vote this time.

The Alarcon vote mostly goes to AV.

So, in a runoff with Hahn, can AV capture 25% or so of the Hertzberg vote. I think so, pro-seccession Valleyites are increasingly disaffected with Hahn. Look at the Daily News endorsement of Bob on Sunday -- they were very positive towards Antonio -- and made it abundantly clear they were never going with Hahn.

And yes, the polls will be all over the map -- but look for the trends. So far the trends are: AV is solid, probably in first. Hahn is weak and dropping, Bobv is consolidating the Rep vote and Parks is suffereing as a result of Bob's movement.

February 14, 2005 10:31 AM  

Blogger J. Harriman said:

Boi:

It wasn't Villaraigosa's poll it was KABC's. They polled all five and reported the top three for some unknown reason. They did say that Bob and Alarcon were not as well known as the others. Ask them.

February 14, 2005 10:33 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Hey I heard the CM Zine is thinking of a dual endorsement. Villaraigosa (& Hahn). He was really upset over the arm twisting he got from the Mayor's office last week over the half cent sales tax measure. Anyone else hear that?

February 14, 2005 11:51 AM  

Blogger SacramentoNighties said:

"Finally, a coherent argument."

This is such transparent hack-speak for "finally, something I can easily spin to my partisan view." Anyone who believes that: 1) Attention-Deficit Villaraigosa ever had broad appeal in the FIRST place (see his pitiful pickup in points between the primary and general in 2001); 2) that the appeal of ADV® is even broader NOW -- after breaking a major 2003 campaign promise and drawing a recall movement in his own district; and, 3) ADV® is suddenly, somehow MORE palatable to the city now that he's mostly identified ss the "loser" last time -- has been smoking something. They better have an Rx and a obvious case of glaucoma to go with this obvious case of Tony V. Tunnelvision.

February 14, 2005 1:53 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

FROM MEAT:

So excited to see Sacramento nighties begin to acknowledge that Antonio will make the run-off guess he/she/it sees the writing on the walls.

Sacknite is already spinning that Antonio can't win the run-off, you've already conceded the primary. Nice.

Next, once Antonio wins, i am sure you'll be saying items like Antonio will be recalled mid-term or that he'll only serve one term, sad thing is, losers like nighties never will admit they lost.

blog away dum-dum

February 14, 2005 2:23 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"The Alarcon vote mostly goes to AV."

A totally Racist and condescending comment. It includes all faulty assumptions that provide proof of that. That Alarcon's vote is all Latino, and that all Latino’s will vote for another Latino (AV) if/when Alarcon leaves the race for whatever reason. How utterl insulting. The recall in CD14 is being led by Latino’s. Latino’s are among Villaraigosa's staunchet and most vocal critics, here and in the real world that you number crunchers have lost touch with. Alarcon’s camp includes many the leading activists (of all races) who are fed up with Villaraigosa’s lying campaign hacks playing out a rerun of the council race, then claiming that everyone else is being racist.

This kind of mindless stereotypical and bad assumptions drove Latinos to vote Bush and Republican in the largest numbers ever last year (and elected him). "Oh, Latino’s will all vote for Kerry, his wife some kind of Hispanic." Latino’s refuse to be herded back into the fold by the spelling of a last name or your racial profiling.

Apologize, you arrogant intolerant bean-counter! We are not chess pieces you can move around the board at will, or cookie-cutter numbers you can crunch to feed your consultat fees.

February 14, 2005 2:26 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"The Alarcon vote mostly goes to AV."

A totally Racist and condescending comment. It includes all faulty assumptions that provide proof of that. That Alarcon's vote is all Latino, and that all Latino’s will vote for another Latino (AV) if/when Alarcon leaves the race for whatever reason. How utterl insulting. The recall in CD14 is being led by Latino’s. Latino’s are among Villaraigosa's staunchet and most vocal critics, here and in the real world that you number crunchers have lost touch with. Alarcon’s camp includes many the leading activists (of all races) who are fed up with Villaraigosa’s lying campaign hacks playing out a rerun of the council race, then claiming that everyone else is being racist.

This kind of mindless stereotypical and bad assumptions drove Latinos to vote Bush and Republican in the largest numbers ever last year (and elected him). "Oh, Latino’s will all vote for Kerry, his wife some kind of Hispanic." Latino’s refuse to be herded back into the fold by the spelling of a last name or your racial profiling.

Apologize, you arrogant intolerant bean-counter! We are not chess pieces you can move around the board at will, or cookie-cutter numbers you can crunch to feed your consultat fees.

February 14, 2005 2:26 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"The Alarcon vote mostly goes to AV."

A totally Racist and condescending comment. It includes all faulty assumptions that provide proof of that. That Alarcon's vote is all Latino, and that all Latino’s will vote for another Latino (AV) if/when Alarcon leaves the race for whatever reason. How utterl insulting. The recall in CD14 is being led by Latino’s. Latino’s are among Villaraigosa's staunchet and most vocal critics, here and in the real world that you number crunchers have lost touch with. Alarcon’s camp includes many the leading activists (of all races) who are fed up with Villaraigosa’s lying campaign hacks playing out a rerun of the council race, then claiming that everyone else is being racist.

This kind of mindless stereotypical and bad assumptions drove Latinos to vote Bush and Republican in the largest numbers ever last year (and elected him). "Oh, Latino’s will all vote for Kerry, his wife some kind of Hispanic." Latino’s refuse to be herded back into the fold by the spelling of a last name or your racial profiling.

Apologize, you arrogant intolerant bean-counter! We are not chess pieces you can move around the board at will, or cookie-cutter numbers you can crunch to feed your consultat fees.

February 14, 2005 2:26 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"The Alarcon vote mostly goes to AV."

A totally Racist and condescending comment. It includes all faulty assumptions that provide proof of that. That Alarcon's vote is all Latino, and that all Latino’s will vote for another Latino (AV) if/when Alarcon leaves the race for whatever reason. How utterl insulting. The recall in CD14 is being led by Latino’s. Latino’s are among Villaraigosa's staunchet and most vocal critics, here and in the real world that you number crunchers have lost touch with. Alarcon’s camp includes many the leading activists (of all races) who are fed up with Villaraigosa’s lying campaign hacks playing out a rerun of the council race, then claiming that everyone else is being racist.

This kind of mindless stereotypical and bad assumptions drove Latinos to vote Bush and Republican in the largest numbers ever last year (and elected him). "Oh, Latino’s will all vote for Kerry, his wife some kind of Hispanic." Latino’s refuse to be herded back into the fold by the spelling of a last name or your racial profiling.

Apologize, you arrogant intolerant bean-counter! We are not chess pieces you can move around the board at will, or cookie-cutter numbers you can crunch to feed your consultat fees.

February 14, 2005 2:26 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"The Alarcon vote mostly goes to AV."

A totally Racist and condescending comment. It includes all faulty assumptions that provide proof of that. That Alarcon's vote is all Latino, and that all Latino’s will vote for another Latino (AV) if/when Alarcon leaves the race for whatever reason. How utterl insulting. The recall in CD14 is being led by Latino’s. Latino’s are among Villaraigosa's staunchet and most vocal critics, here and in the real world that you number crunchers have lost touch with. Alarcon’s camp includes many the leading activists (of all races) who are fed up with Villaraigosa’s lying campaign hacks playing out a rerun of the council race, then claiming that everyone else is being racist.

This kind of mindless stereotypical and bad assumptions drove Latinos to vote Bush and Republican in the largest numbers ever last year (and elected him). "Oh, Latino’s will all vote for Kerry, his wife some kind of Hispanic." Latino’s refuse to be herded back into the fold by the spelling of a last name or your racial profiling.

Apologize, you arrogant intolerant bean-counter! We are not chess pieces you can move around the board at will, or cookie-cutter numbers you can crunch to feed your consultat fees.

February 14, 2005 2:29 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"The Alarcon vote mostly goes to AV."

A totally Racist and condescending comment. It includes all faulty assumptions that provide proof of that. That Alarcon's vote is all Latino, and that all Latino’s will vote for another Latino (AV) if/when Alarcon leaves the race for whatever reason. How utterl insulting. The recall in CD14 is being led by Latino’s. Latino’s are among Villaraigosa's staunchet and most vocal critics, here and in the real world that you number crunchers have lost touch with. Alarcon’s camp includes many the leading activists (of all races) who are fed up with Villaraigosa’s lying campaign hacks playing out a rerun of the council race, then claiming that everyone else is being racist.

This kind of mindless stereotypical and bad assumptions drove Latinos to vote Bush and Republican in the largest numbers ever last year (and elected him). "Oh, Latino’s will all vote for Kerry, his wife some kind of Hispanic." Latino’s refuse to be herded back into the fold by the spelling of a last name or your racial profiling.

Apologize, you arrogant intolerant bean-counter! We are not chess pieces you can move around the board at will, or cookie-cutter numbers you can crunch to feed your consultat fees.

February 14, 2005 2:29 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"The Alarcon vote mostly goes to AV."

A totally Racist and condescending comment. It includes all faulty assumptions that provide proof of that. That Alarcon's vote is all Latino, and that all Latino’s will vote for another Latino (AV) if/when Alarcon leaves the race for whatever reason. How utterl insulting. The recall in CD14 is being led by Latino’s. Latino’s are among Villaraigosa's staunchet and most vocal critics, here and in the real world that you number crunchers have lost touch with. Alarcon’s camp includes many the leading activists (of all races) who are fed up with Villaraigosa’s lying campaign hacks playing out a rerun of the council race, then claiming that everyone else is being racist.

This kind of mindless stereotypical and bad assumptions drove Latinos to vote Bush and Republican in the largest numbers ever last year (and elected him). "Oh, Latino’s will all vote for Kerry, his wife some kind of Hispanic." Latino’s refuse to be herded back into the fold by the spelling of a last name or your racial profiling.

Apologize, you arrogant intolerant bean-counter! We are not chess pieces you can move around the board at will, or cookie-cutter numbers you can crunch to feed your consultat fees.

February 14, 2005 2:30 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

FROM MEAT:

I was about to say "yes you are" but you went and mentioned Bush, which means to me simply you are insane.

You claimed that Latinos would vote for Kerry because Teresa was some kind of latino --- odd, maybe they were herded to vote for bush because Bush speaks spanish, or maybe they were herded because Jeb married a latina and had mixed "little brown ones" as George Bush (the daddy) said.

That said, whoever posted the above comment must be some spiteful latino who believes in their heart of hearts that numbers don't tell the truth.

Just like Becerra's voters did 4 years ago, Alarcon voters will go to Antonio.

AHhhhh OMG are you saying that republicans follow the conservative line and progressives follow the progressive line. YES. Is that racist - NO you dum-dum.

Alarcon = Progressive
Villaraigosa= Progressive

this equals mostly Alarcon voters going to Antonio.

So while i am happy to continue this line of debate (if you can call it that) the above poster is a dum-dum which is evident by the fact that they can't post it once correctly.

blog away.

February 14, 2005 2:38 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Meat this divides Latinos into three groups:

- Villaraigosa supporters (smart?)
- the angry, stupid, an obviously insane
- sleazy bar owners

February 14, 2005 2:55 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Anybody notice that when MEAT get's upset and angry, his posts start to sound just like J. Harriman? Better watch your "blog" voices, they're running togther. Count to 10 - breathe deep before you start another one.

February 14, 2005 3:00 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

FROM MEAT:

You have it pretty much 100%.

blog away dum-dum

February 14, 2005 3:01 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Alarcon = Progressive
Villaraigosa= Progressive

But, Hertzberg also = Progressive

Kinda blows that tidy little, simple-minded formula all to hell.

February 14, 2005 3:07 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"...numbers don't tell the truth."

Maybe when some real comparable numbers appear, then people can decide. So far it's been bits and pieces of everything but a comprehensive, impartial poll that takes into account the latest developments, likely voters, changes in visibility (media buys), precisely worded questions that ask will you vote and for whom (not weeks old). Each camp is now pulling the shiny multicolor pieces they like best out of the rubbish - one sliver from the polls 2 weeks ago, another from an incomplete poll here - and making their own "proof" collage. None of these make very good mirrors, and the trends are useles since they are equally all over the map.

February 14, 2005 3:15 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I do think Antonio will get intot he run-ff, that is why he is playing it safe. Toobad for him that he will not win the run-off. He gets a maximum of 44-47% of the vote. Where Hahn lost in the African American community Antonio will lose the same or more in the latino community. The valley will look the same, even though they are mad at Hahn. I do not see republicans voting for Antonio in high numbers. Tony you will finish first in the primary but second in the general, again. Hahn knows this and this is why he is going to try and beat-up onHertzberg(He is more vulnerable than Antonio right now). You heard it here first, whoever gets into the run-off with Antonio will be the next Mayor). Antonio will not know what hit him in the general election, again.

February 14, 2005 3:43 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

LA still is not ready for a proressive liberal democrat like Antonio. LA likes its reformminded republicans who share similar views to moderate democrats. No matter how hard Tony V. tries, he will not win. Plain and simple. This is what the polling shows. Hahn and Hertzberg can't wait to face the fighter whose time has past. He will be on the mat once again come May 17th. I think he runs against Cedillo for State Senate after he loses.

February 14, 2005 3:48 PM  

Blogger SacramentoNighties said:

MEET spit out this oddity: "...begin to acknowledge that Antonio will make the run-off guess he/she/it sees the writing on the walls."

Shouldn't even bother to respond, but can't resist pointing out another of the meaty "81-percent-approval-rating" one's errors. So, my response is simply:

HUH?

What blog is MEAT "reading the writing" on? Mayor SPAM's? That might have been a snappy retort if my earlier post had anything to do with whether or not Attention-Deficit Villaraigosa can make a runoff. (Must be sharing the glaucoma Rx with that other love-is-blind supporter of ADV®).

ADV® made the runoff last time -- with pitiful results (came in first in the primary, then lost more than two-thirds of the also-rans' votes to come in way second). He can make it this time, too. CAN, but sure doesn't DESERVE to, based on his seldom-mentioned 2003-05 city service record.

One definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Same candidate (even less "mythic" than four years ago), same campaign managers, same tired-old Plan A tactics. (The only difference is the misfire timing, possibly knocking off Hahn too early). If he makes this runoff, look back 4 years to see what will happen next.

2001, ADV® got 30% in primary, plus 15 percent more in runoff = LOSER. Same campaign, same candidate = same general results in in 2005 (again, if he makes runoff). Significantly less than one-third of vote in primary, picking up no more than one-third of the votes that previously went to the also-rans, and AGAIN ending up WELL under 50 percent in the general. Sorry for the repetition from previous blogs -- MEAT must've missed those.

Hey call me a loser, I'm consistent; call me a LIAR, and I have 81 percent of a new problem... I'd have to join the ADV® camp, where the really BIG liars all go to roost.

Bottom line, anyone TRULY "ABH" who has a memory at least four years old, would not be backing the same "loser" again (see definition of insanity, above, again).

RIF, Meat, RIF.

February 14, 2005 4:25 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

*Reading Is Fundamental, if anyone's to young to cathc that last akronym.

February 14, 2005 7:10 PM  

Blogger Halogirlfromcity said:

What is the point of posting 7 TIMES!!! Are you psycho? You are wasting space.

The fact is that many people vote by ethnicity. Who are you fooling? That's the way people vote. It may not be right but it's a fact. Ask the average resident of LA? Are they even aware of who these candidates are? NOT! Just you folks who live and breath city politics. I still say ABH. Be it Hertzberg, Villaraigosa, Alarcon or Parks. Hahn is the one that should be recalled. What an embarrasment. He's the one that should be indicted. ABH!!!

February 14, 2005 10:11 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

This has happened to several people on the blog -- on all sides. The browser churns, and looks like the post didn't take, so you click again and then find out it did post after all. There have been 2-3-4 multiple posts one a number of topics.

The poster was obviously pissed, and if you read the dismissive tone of the original post he/she was responding to, you'll see it was insensitive and stereotypical, intentional or not, in terms of "you all do this." Recent elections have been proving some minority groups are less and less uniform in their "one of ours" voting.

February 14, 2005 10:22 PM  

Blogger SacramentoNighties said:

Mayor Sam's blog poll on "dumbest" CMs here really isn't fair -- including Villaraigosa like that. Unlike the other 14, he's only an "honorary" councilmember. That seat has been vacant for two years

February 15, 2005 12:22 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Good one Sacramento! I needed a good laugh. Compare Attention Deficit Villaraigosa's record in almost 2 years to Eric Garcetti and what he's done in his community. Amazing. I hope it rains hard this weekend on ADV's clean up. Will he ask the residents to get mops instead?

February 15, 2005 4:23 PM  

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