Matt Szabo has lead in CD 13 Election Poll

Mayor Villar staffer/confidant Matt Szabo has lead in early CD 13 Poll

CD 13 City Council Candidate Matt Szabo.

Could Matt Szabo next office number be a lucky "13"?

According to this poll, that may come to fruition.

MEMORANDUM

January 18, 2013

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: PAUL GOODWIN
Goodwin Simon Strategic Research

RE: Key Findings – Voter Survey in LA Council District 13 

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A telephone survey of 301 likely March, 2013 voters just completed by Goodwin Simon Strategic Research finds Deputy Mayor Matt Szabo already in the lead for the open seat in L.A.’s 13th Council District.

An initial vote question, giving voters only the names and official ballot titles of five of the leading candidates, yields the following:

So Szabo starts ahead based on his name and his title of Deputy Mayor. But the survey suggests that this initial edge is only the first of Szabo’s several advantages in this race.

Second, we see that Mayor Villaraigosa, who has endorsed Szabo in this race, is very popular – with a 69% favorable rating overall and 79% favorable among voters undecided in the council race.

Third, we find Szabo has a wide lead over Choi and O’Farrell after we read voters positive paragraphs about the candidates. We told them about Choi’s excellent record delivering quality services to millions of residents and his labor background. We told them about O’Farrell’s close ties to this district as senior advisor to Councilman Garcetti. And we told them about Szabo’s experience working with and for Mayors Riordan and Villaragosa and the City Attorney. The result: a 12 point lead over O’Farrell and a 15 point lead over Choi, as shown on the next page.

We don’t pretend that such “informed” vote questions are totally neutral, but we do try to give the best themes from each candidate, drawn from their own campaign materials, to see where voters go initially -- before turning on the positives for our candidate as we move farther into the poll. That Szabo takes such a substantial lead in a question like this suggests not only that his background is very appealing to voters, but that they were just not that interested in what Choi and O’Farrell are telling voters about themselves so far.

Fourth, the range of positives that Szabo brings to the campaign is broad and so impressive that our main challenge in the polling analysis is to narrow it down to a handful of the most effective and persuasive items. In a district in which the right track numbers are the highest we have seen so far in the city (compared to the other districts where we are polling), and in which 80% of the voters think the Council is doing at least a fair job, we can feel confident that voters are looking for experience and accomplishments. Szabo fits their bill perfectly.

Szabo is very likely to finish first in March, and that this will leave him secure for the May runoff.

Methodology

The telephone survey, using both English-speaking and Spanish-speaking interviewers and both land line and wireless numbers, was conducted with 301 likely March voters between January 13 and January 15, 2013. It yielded a margin of error of about plus or minus 5.8% at a 95% confidence level.

Your thoughts ................
Scott Johnson in CD 14