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Wednesday, November 03, 2010

Guess Which Poll Nailed it?

It was the one that Meg, Big Journalism, and many anonymous posters tried to discredit the most;

From Political


"In the final 10 days before the election, 14 polls of the races for governor and U.S. Senate in California were released by 10 nonpartisan polling organizations. Those pre-election polls divided into two noticeably different camps.
One group, which included the L.A. Times/USC poll and the Field Poll, projected hefty wins by Democratic candidates Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer. The other, which included polls by the Rasmussen organization and Public Policy Polling, showed both Democrats likely to win, but by much smaller margins. Some showed the Senate race in particular getting closer.
Republican candidates and strategists were, of course, eager to draw attention to the surveys in the latter group. The Republican candidate for governor, Meg Whitman, directly attacked the Times/USC poll in several speeches, saying incorrectly that Times polls always favored candidates the paper had endorsed.
In the end, Brown won by 12 points and Boxer by nine. The poll that came closest to nailing the results: The L.A. Times/USC survey, which had projected a 13-point margin for Brown and an eight-point margin for Boxer. Field, which had projected margins of 10 points for Brown and eight for Boxer, came in a close second.
The worst record? The Rasmussen surveys, which were conducted for Fox News and Rasmussen’s own survey website. Those polls projected a Boxer margin of three points and a Brown win by four."

Read on

19 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said:

And in a comment to that article, Mark DiCamillo who runs the Field Poll, says "There are still over 1.5 million and perhaps as many as 2 million mostly mail ballot and some provisional votes yet to be counted."

November 03, 2010 2:13 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Good to remember for the next election cycle.

November 03, 2010 2:15 PM  

Blogger Red Spot in CD 14 said:

The "Old Gray Hag on Spring Street" could do no worse after their "Governor Cruz Bustamante" Poll during the Recall Campaign.

November 03, 2010 3:28 PM  

Anonymous Retired LAUSD said:

I know you're disinclined to post comments that you don't agree with, Joe, so if you don't want to post this one, I'll repost it with Higby tomorrow.

But here's a little reminder of how out of touch you are.

Last night, you wrote, "WHERE'S THE BLOODBATH?"

Today, Obama called it a "shellacking."

Even far leftie Katie Couric called it a seismic shift.

How can you be so out of touch with your far left loonies? Do you ever research things before you write them, or do you just post whatever random thought crosses through your mind?

November 03, 2010 3:42 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Now I know why Joe likes San Francisco. They're business un-friendly too.

Yesterday, S.F. banned Happy Meals, rather than letting people choose to buy them or not.

November 03, 2010 3:56 PM  

Blogger Joe B. said:

Retired Lausd,
Oh, it was a shellacking all right.
Seismic Shift, I'm not so sure.
But it would only have been a bloodbath, in my opinion, if the Dems had lost the Senate. Fortunately that did not happen, so I'll go with shellacking. Meanwhile is it a beautiful day in California or what?

November 03, 2010 4:20 PM  

Anonymous trojan2002 said:

Joe,
It's a bloodbath because a lot of higher up congressional dems got the boot, or in the case of obey and dodd, retired before being embarrassed.
Reid survived because casinos and unions went to bat HEAVY for him.
Boxer & Brown won because we're a state of brainwashed voters who follow the donkey off the edge of the mountain.
Brown is NOT a good person.

Brown has NO plan. His plan is to negotiate with unions. He won because of unions. His whole political career and the personal fortune of his family is attributed to unions... how is going to be an honest broker for you and me?

And Boxer... in 3 terms in the senate, what has she done for this state? Even dems in DC ignore her.

DO you know what she's done? She turned off the water and Jim Costa paid for her asinine way.

Personally, in reflection, I'm glad Gov. Geriatric won. When he screws up like O(NO) he and the dems will pay the price. Geriatric is going to make Davis and even the Actor look like GREAT governors.

November 03, 2010 5:02 PM  

Blogger Joe B. said:

I'm sticking with "shellacking".
Oh, and that's "Governor Brown" to you trojan.

November 03, 2010 5:13 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I'm not that worried about Brown. He's always been stingy, and he's smart enough to read the tea leaves and look at the state's balance sheet.

With a Democratic legislature, he has an opportunity to convince them to smarten up and hear what the voters are saying.

It will be interesting however to see what the Party of No does in California when Brown starts dealing with the fiscal problems.

November 03, 2010 5:25 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Joe, perhaps you should recalibrate how bad it was.

You didn't mention at all the critical takeover of a huge majority of the nation's governorships by the Republicans.

Those are the people who oversee the redistricting of Congressional seats. They'll be the ones in charge prior to the 2012 election. That's under-reported, but huge.

I think that takes it to the Bloodbath level.

With respect to the Kamala Harris story, they're going to do a recount since it's a razor thin count right now. It's disingenuous of you to suggest it's hers and it's official.

November 03, 2010 5:40 PM  

Blogger Joe B. said:

5:40pm- I hear you, but bloodbath to me means House & Senate in an election, not future redistricting.

As to Kamala, if and when a recount proceeds, then we'll announce that. Thanks.

November 03, 2010 5:45 PM  

Anonymous Montana said:

Nutmeg was lousy at national politics as was the Carly, so what who cares, they can still run again, someday. They both were tagged with outsourcing US jobs to foreign lands and lets face it, Arnold did not do a great job, so why act surprose?

November 03, 2010 8:17 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Now maybe you all get a lesson in real politics and the reason as to why POTUS moved so fast on health care, stimulus and programs. Yesterday was no bloodbath. The new house is powerless to either repeal anything OR pass anything. Meanwhile there are two years to further implement the laws that have already been put on the books.

Imagine- fifty years from now a mother caressing her young child who has just been given a new life through an organ transplant or complex surgery. The child asks, "Mom, where did my new liver come from?"

Thanks to the haters, their villain's name will be reverently invoked eternally.

She will answer "Obama, baby. Obamacare gave you your new liver."

November 03, 2010 11:44 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Oh boo hoo... whiny retired LAUSD is cranky.

It doesn't feel good to be a loser huh?

November 04, 2010 2:33 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I never did agree with Trojan but I respected him. Now after that whiny Brown bashing claiming that Brown will be SO pro-union? I guess you were too young to live through his last term when he didn't always back unions.

November 04, 2010 2:39 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I was polled in the LA Times/USC poll. Today I got a letter saying there would be a follow up.

Thank god I got every CA candidate right!

November 04, 2010 2:41 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Katie Couric is a "far lefty?" Geez...some of you people here are SO paranoid. That's the most absurd, funniest thing I've read all week. Yeah, let's all hide and quiver in fear when the big bad lefty Katie comes on the screen! She's gonna brainwash our children!!!

November 04, 2010 9:03 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

If you are afraid of Katie Couric...you're just a weenie wimp, no offense!

November 04, 2010 11:36 AM  

Anonymous g said:

I HATE POLLS THEY INTERFER WITH THE PROCESS. PEOPLE NEED TO GROW UP AND MAKE UP THEIR OWN MINDS WITHOUT THIS SOCIALIST POLLING. THIS IS WHY THIS COUNTRY IS GOING BAD. ALL POLLING SHOULD BE OUTLAWED AND THE MEDIA NEEDS TO LET VOTE COUNTS PREDICT OUTCOMES. MANY VOTES ARE NEVER COUNTED IN ALL RACES ABSENTEE OR PROVISIONAL BALLOTS, THAT ALSO SHOULD END BY LAW. NONE OF US GET A TRUTHFUL RESULT, THAT SACRIFICES OUR POLITICAL PROCESS.

November 04, 2010 4:01 PM  

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