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Thursday, January 24, 2008

Lawmakers Reach a Deal on Stimulus Plan

Friday 12/25 Update:

No on S (for Shady) hits AM drive radio today:
Bill Handle/KFI will be dissing "Yes on S", otherwise known as "No on S" (for shady). Maybe Antonio should call his next phony proposition "B" for "bamboozle".

The New York Times on Thursday endorsed Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton and Republican Sen. John McCain for their party's nominations to contest the U.S. presidential in November.
full story

StrategyUpdate.com Pre-Opening Bell report (Click "daily blog" link. Updates throughout the day.)

"Yes on S" Gets Endorsement of Matt "Guitar" Dowd!: The City of Los Angeles will be glad to know, that they have won the endorsement of Matt "Guitar" Dowd with his, "Yes on S" position . Here's his response video to ZD's "No on S" videos. click here (Matt knows the City needs the money for lawsuits they have to settle and he wants to make sure the money is there for the recipients.)

Lawmakers Reach a Deal on Stimulus Plan

By AP | 24 Jan 2008 | 09:12 AM ET


Democratic and Republican congressional leaders reached a tentative deal Thursday on tax rebates of $300 to $1,200 per household and business tax cuts to jolt the slumping economy.

The development came as the Bush administration, which also has been pushing for a deal, said agreement seemed imminent. "Our understanding is there is no final deal yet but they are making progress," presidential spokeswoman Dana Perino said early Thursday.

In the talks, Pelosi pressed to make sure tax relief would find its way into the hands of lower-income earners while Boehner pushed to include upper middle-class couples, according to congressional aides.

Pelosi's decision to drop expanding unemployment payments and more money for food stamps -- which many lawmakers had assumed would be included in the package -- could prove very controversial with Democratic constituencies, who were already stung by a decision to deny states more money for their Medicaid programs.

Pelosi, D-Calif., agreed to drop increases in food stamp and unemployment benefits during a Wednesday meeting in exchange for gaining rebates of at least $300 for almost everyone earning a paycheck, including low-income earners who make too little to pay income taxes.

Under the tentative plan, families with children would receive an additional $300 per child, subject to an overall cap of perhaps $1,200, according to a senior House aide who outlined the deal on condition of anonymity in advance of formal adoption of the whole package. Rebates would go to people earning below a certain income cap, likely individuals earning $75,000 or less and couples with incomes of $150,000 or less.

Workers would have to have earned at least $3,000 in 2007 to receive the rebates, the officials said.

Breaks for Business

Another element of the plan is a package of tax breaks for businesses that could cost $70 billion, far more than had been expected, said a senior House aide and a Democratic lobbyist said.

Bush has supported larger rebates of $800-$1,600, but his plan would have left out 30 million working households who earn paychecks but don't make enough to pay income tax, according to calculations by the Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center. An additional 19 million households would receive only partial rebates under Bush's initial proposal.

To Address Home Lending Caps

To address the mortgage crisis, the package also allows Fannie Mae
Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae)
FNM -- government-sponsored companies that are the two biggest U.S. financers and guarantors of home loans -- to buy home mortgages much larger than the current $417,000 limit. Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., and chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said that lending cap might reach as high as $700,000 in areas with the highest home prices.

Full Story

12 PM INVESTOR UPDATE: I have blogged tons of update on my stock market blog, so it doesn't overpower this political blog -- but here is something that I feel qualifies for a Mayor Sam update. You see, if you remember two days ago, when Council missed a quorum because all hell was breaking lose on Wall STemplatetreet. What saved it? George Bush stepped in and said he was going to get to work on a bond insurers financial bail-out. (That is the single biggest reason I am begging everyone to be very cautious, if not pull out of the market entirely before Feb 1 '08.)

So on the good news of the bail out...the market rallied back and the coast appeared to be clear. Except ZD was not buying the smoke and mirrors -- and even if it was true, it wouldn't be able to prevent the inevitable.

But here's what just hit the ZD Batcomputer chatter alert: Word on the street is that there was zero (0.00%), none/nada consensus on any kind of package. That's not to say there will not eventually be one (because there sure as hell will need to be for the sake of global humanity) -- but if the news prevented the market from dropping a possible 1000 points as they were talking about on Tuesday -- the consider that news just smoke...not even mirrors. So what do you think will happen next? I may be crying wolf on this one. Gotta research it more and take it all in...but now I know why they call it a "gut" reaction. I just got a nervous-butterfly, icky feeling just thinking about it. (Investors trying to get rich in the stock market: HOLD. Investors worried about losing it all: SELL and don't worry about it. Does it really look like it's gonna be a good first quarter for the stock market. That's up for you to decide. I'm just trying to help you make these decisions.

Massive stock market updates at strategyupdate.com. Click daily blog link. I set up the blog so I don't have to post it here, so don't start crying that I posted the link.


Anonymous Anonymous said:

Who suffers most from inflation? Who suffers most from rising prices? It’s the poor, not the rich. The rich can protect themselves from inflation; poor people can’t.

January 24, 2008 9:23 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Just wanted to compliment ZD on a well organized post. I could read and understand it today!

January 24, 2008 9:35 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Yeah, me too, didn't realize it was Zuma. THANKS! Could be he is seeing a nice girl?

January 24, 2008 10:10 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

For the year, sales of single-family homes were down by 13 percent, the biggest drop since a 17.7 percent plunge in 1982. The median price for a single-family home dropped 1.8 percent to $217,000.

January 24, 2008 10:17 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

The Feds have a real nerve screwing up your dump the stocks plan, didn't they Zuma?

So now you change the subject and become a reporter for a while instead of a prognosticator.

Good choice. You suck as a stock advisor. At least you can cut and paste.

January 24, 2008 10:21 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

What should you do with the rebate?

1. Start that emergency fund, pronto.

2. Wrestle your bills to the ground.

3. Pay down credit-card debt.

4. Invest in the future. How have you been doing lately when it comes to saving for your retirement?

5. Give your ride a little TLC. You also could use your tax-rebate check to take care of some important car maintenance. Are you approaching the time for a 30,000-mile full service for your vehicle? If so, why not get that behind you?

January 24, 2008 10:22 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

They said $600 initially, but that was just a tease. Send my$300 to Sparta. crap this shit.

January 24, 2008 10:27 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

The Hollywood writers' strike has lasted 11 weeks — and has cost the Los Angeles economy $1.5 billion.

January 24, 2008 10:33 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Gulp! 7-Eleven unseats Subway as top franchise
First-timer knocks out the sandwich giant, after 15 years in No. 1 spot.

January 24, 2008 10:40 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

With the economy falling apart, the Federal Reserve is in the middle of a campaign to cut interest rates and help get things moving again. But the Fed is also in charge of keeping a lid on inflation — something that usually requires raising rates. But why, some readers are wondering, is the Fed still worried about inflation in the first place?

Why is the Fed worried about inflation when typically it is caused by too few goods being chased by too many dollars. Isn't the problem now is that inflation is tied to the rise in energy costs — something over which we have little control?

January 24, 2008 10:42 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

While oil remains high and higher, it oblitereates all positive news.

January 24, 2008 10:44 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

the Fed is worried about inflation because that’s the Fed’s job. Just because there are no house fires burning at the moment doesn’t mean the folks at fire department can all go home. And, yes, higher energy costs are a big cause for concern. As you correctly describe it, the problem is that are too few barrels of oil for all the consumers who need it (or want it now to hedge against future price increases) and are willing to pay whatever the last barrel sold for. That's helped push the so-called "core" inflation rate (which leaves out food and energy) above two percent a year — which is higher than where the Fed would like it to be. A lower dollar doesn’t help either. If you go to buy a product made in country with a currency that is getting stronger compared to the dollar, you have to pay higher and higher prices for that product. One reason this impact hasn’t been felt more directly is that much of the stuff we buy is made in China, which has until recently tied its currency closely to the dollar. The slide in the dollar has also boosted oil prices: if you’re a U.S. refiner bidding for oil against someone paying with euros, you have to pay more dollars to keep up.

January 24, 2008 10:49 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

At the moment, the Fed is betting that it can cut interest rates further — and not risk higher inflation. The reason is that if, as now seems apparent, the economy is slowing down, that should tend to cut demand for energy and other commodities and take the pressure off prices for the moment.

The problem with that approach is that it assumes that if the U.S. economy is slowing so is the rest of the world. That’s been the pattern for most of the recent past. But if emerging economies in Asia and elsewhere continue to push full steam ahead, the demand for commodities and other raw materials — food, energy, steel, etc. — will remains high. And so will the risk of higher inflation.

January 24, 2008 10:51 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

We may have a shortage of refineries when gas is cheap, but higher pump prices have begun to have the kind of impact you would expect: people are figuring out how to get more out of every gallon of gasoline. Some are switching to higher mileage cars. Others are taking public transportation if they can. Still others are combining trips and skipping the Sunday drive.

January 24, 2008 10:54 AM  

Anonymous tj shondell said:

Did you hear about this? A French bank said Thursday it has uncovered a $7.14 billion fraud — one of history’s biggest — by a single futures trader whose scheme of fictitious transactions was discovered. He is 31 years old. Their are stupid people (bankers) in every field, every nation, crystal blue persuassion.

January 24, 2008 10:59 AM  

Blogger Zuma Dogg said:

ZD doubter...all my predictions are on my strategy update blog for all to see. Predicting the market is the most easy and predictable thing I have ever seen. I couldn't disagree with you more. Again, check the blog. I said gold was going to shoot right past $900 today and mosaic would open at 85, potash would open at 130...my special pick SNCR was up 20% at one point today, you douchebag...what more do you want...I could go on all day...check the blog and learn how it works.

January 24, 2008 11:24 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Thanks, stupid Dem's, for taking away the $1600 household rebate Bush wanted to give me, and instead, giving most of that away to "poor" people who didn't even pay income taxes, and giving extra credits of $300 per kid for upto 4 kids ($12oo).

I don't have 4 kids because I can't afford them and I don't sit around counting on Medicaid, weldfare, food stamps, and occasional "gifts."

My husband and I are both teachers at a private school and make barely $90,ooo even with overtime. Our two little kids are in preschools that cost a bundle, and we could have used that money wisely. Now, it will go to illegals with 4 kids they can't afford to raise, educate or buy health insurance for -- while people like us, who have no choice but to carry some credit card debt but don't take out mortgages we can't afford, and don't know how we'll educate our two kids in this Hispanic city (my private school discourages teachers' kids from going there to avoid possible patronage), have had a little relief dangled before us and had it taken away by the Dem's.

Guess we're too "rich" for their taste. I can hardly wait to see what else they'll do when they get into office, which seems inevitable.

January 24, 2008 12:07 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Many economists predict that America will move closest to a downturn since the current expansion began seven years ago. If the economy does contract, economic seers expect a shallow retrenchment, most likely in the first six months of the year. Most see only limited improvement in the latter half?

January 24, 2008 12:19 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"Bush wanted to give me, and instead, giving most of that away to "poor" people who didn't even pay income taxes, and giving extra credits of $300 per kid for upto 4 kids ($12oo)."

I'm poor, cant get a job,, so I wont get anything. For Christmas my friends gave me food cards. I get nothing, have nothing and need a lot.

Where are the kids when I needed them...if I only had known...

January 24, 2008 12:20 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Oil jumps on stimulus plan agreement.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil futures jumped more than $2 a barrel Thursday after the Bush administration and Congressional leaders agreed to an economic stimulus plan that will give most Americans tax rebates of $600 to $1,200, or even more if they have kids.
Prices were already higher after the government reported a drop in heating oil supplies and as investors anticipated a stimulus plan. But futures took off, posting their largest gains in over three weeks, on word that an agreement had been reached.

"What's boosting us up today is a little economic optimism because people are going to get a little free money," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp., in Chicago.

"People are feeling the pain of high energy prices," Flynn said.

January 24, 2008 12:30 PM  

Anonymous matt dowd's secretary said:

Bill Rosendahl and the Mayor cancelled their Day of Service this Saturday.(local event, see below). Is it because of the weather, or maybe because Mike Hunt was waving around the flyer in chambers and talking up the event and his planned participation with the Mayor???

this public notice confirming just came by epigeon:

Arturo Piña
Office of Councilmember Bill Rosendahl
Office (310) 568-8772 - Fax (310) 410-3946

>>> Stephen Cheung 1/23/2008 1:33 PM >>>
Hello All,

Unfortunately, there is a 70% chance of rain on Saturday. After
speaking with the planning committee members, we realized that many
projects, such as painting and planting, will be impossible if it does
rain on Friday or Saturday.

Working with Len, we found that the Councilmember and the Mayor will be
available on March 15. At this point, we are postponing the Day of
Service until March 15.

We are in the process of contacting all the committee members and city
departments to stop the projects. We will be sending out an e-blast
shortly after.

Please let me know if you have any questions or concerns. My cell
phone is 213.447.7111. I apologize for any inconveniences that this
have caused. Thank you very much for all your work and your support in
the past few months.

this office says:

January 24, 2008 12:30 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Those $300 checks start going out in May.

January 24, 2008 1:11 PM  

Blogger Santiago said:

Super Tuesday Won't Decide Nominations. Here's why: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton leads the race for delegates to the Democratic National Convention this summer. She has 236, including separately chosen party and elected officials known as superdelegates, giving her a 100-delegate lead over Sen. Barack Obama. There will be nearly 1,700 Democratic delegates at stake on Feb. 5, enough to put a candidate well on his or her way to the 2,025 needed to secure the nomination. But even if somehow either Clinton or Obama won every single one of those delegates, it wouldn't be enough. And with two strong candidates, the delegates could be divided fairly evenly because the Democrats award their delegates proportionally - not winner-take- all. The biggest prizes among the Democratic states are California (370 delegates), New York (232) and Illinois (153). All three states award Democratic delegates proportionally, with most delegates awarded according to the popular vote in individual congressional districts, and the rest based on the statewide vote.

January 24, 2008 1:19 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

I was happy to see that the House of Representatives have agreed on a tentative stimulus package for the economy. I was less happy with comments about the compromise package. It good to see that representative of the two parties in the spirit of the nations health can agree on a comprimise. However, comments made by individual congressmen such as follows tend to make me a little sick to my stomach. said Rep. Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, the Democratic Caucus Chair. "It wasn't what the Republicans wanted to do, and we made them do it."
Why do we elect such small people with small ideas to public office?

January 24, 2008 2:19 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Latinas for Hillary & Friends
Please join
Congresswoman Hilda L. Solis
Congresswoman Grace Napolitano
Congresswoman Lucille Roybal-Allard
Labor and Civil Rights Leader Dolores Huerta &
local elected officials and community leaders

Yeah, go out there and ask them what the hell have they done?????

January 24, 2008 2:36 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

ZD is the new Milton Friedman. He should sign up for an intership with the great Tom Sowell. Learn from the best.

January 24, 2008 3:07 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

ON JANUARY 14, AT A SPECIAL meeting of the city of Los Angeles' Board of Neighborhood Commissioners in a middle-school auditorium in South Los Angeles, the board voted 4-1 to put the Vernon/Main Neighborhood Council out of business. It was a curious night in the annals of community empowerment, as the commission appointed by Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa gave the local residents, who have been meeting regularly for years to improve their community, just five days to shut down operations and return all city-owned office equipment.

In the past several months, some neighborhood members of the Vernon/Main council have crossed swords with City Council Member Jan Perry. In one instance, President Donald Barnett showed up at a South Park gymnasium for a meeting about an Environmental Impact Report for a "wetlands park" at Avalon Boulevard and 54th Street.

Barnett publicly raised several questions that annoyed Perry, who is advocating the park: Can you really call it a wetland, when the plan is to gather filthy storm-drain water and let it seep into the earth? Is this the best land use in an area desperate for development? Could the $19 million slated for the storm-drain purification project be used for homeless housing instead?

According to Barnett, Perry became so vexed that she abruptly ended the meeting. Perry denies his allegation, telling the Weekly that she allowed the meeting to "finish"— but won't say how.

Perry's influence aside, "BONC"— as the board of seven Villaraigosa political appointees is called, is starting to earn a reputation for trying to silence boisterous neighborhood councils — with help from the Department of Neighborhood Empowerment (which people actually do call "DONE").

January 24, 2008 3:32 PM  

Blogger Christopher Hain said:

The $625k is huge. It's going to have a huge impact on re-fis in L.A. I think the fed rate cuts, stimulus and loan limit increases mean we likely won't see DRAMATIC price drops in housing in desirable places like the Westside. http://terrafirmala.com

January 24, 2008 4:37 PM  

Blogger Santiago said:

Yes 3:07 PM, you have made your point. As it happens 3:07 PM, I know a bit about the truth of what you say, from studies long ago. Still your total refusal to engage with others in any way outside of your validating your obsessional techniques, tells me that while you may be almost as smart as a chimpanzee, you are also indubitably shallow.

January 24, 2008 5:04 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

How the heck can someone do something this outrageous without one single person stopping before he lost all this money????

...Jerome Kerviel named in €5bn bank trading fraud
Jerome Kerviel has been named as the Societe Generale rogue trader who allegedly lost the bank €4.9bn in a huge scandal

January 24, 2008 5:42 PM  

Blogger Santiago said:

5:42 PM,
RE:Jerome Kerviel
Agreed, and this proves one of my basic propositions; Intelligence is no cure for stupidity. (-:
He being identified as the lone wolf behind French investment bank Société Générale's staggering $7.1-billion loss Thursday

January 24, 2008 5:53 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

If you are so smart, Zd, why aren't you rich?

Why do you live in a van and beg for money?

We are all waiting for the answer to this one.

January 24, 2008 6:22 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Zd will be asking the same to you momentarily.

January 24, 2008 6:52 PM  

Blogger Zuma Dogg said:

6:22 pm,

Don't worry, I AM indeed inconsolable. Can you imagine sitting back and being able to predict gold will be skyrocketing above 900, and all these other predictions but not be able to cash in. Just because I am able to call things, doesn't mean I had money in any of these predictions.

Some folks are meant to be rich and everything goes nice and easy and they are blessed. Not ZD. This is nothing new at all.

Again, just because I can predict things, doesn't mean I cashed in, cause I ain't got no cash.

So I thought it might make you feel better to know that I'm a wreck and basically in tears at this point, now that I cannot stop waking up each day only to call the stock market to a "T", without being able to cash in.

But while you are out to try and rub things in and make people feel bad...I'm pushing hard the other way trying to make sure people don't lose their shirts. (Even the people who try and knock me down.)

Of course I'm a loser's, loser...
I woke up yesterday and said Apple would drop to 129....IT DID. (Not too many people agreed.) Then today I wake up and say, Potash will open at $130 (a ten dollar opening bell gain)...that's where it opened - Mosaic would open up at $85 or higher...it did (up 12% today, when people said agro was over).

Yeah, bro...there isn't enough chronic in the world to chill me out. But this is nothing new in my life. I'm used to all of this from the radio biz, where I was told rap music would never be played on the radio -- and groups like Red Hot Chili Peppers and Nirvana would never make it either. And then I am always criticized and attacked for the prediction.

SUMMARY: Just because someone is good at reading a clock...doesn't mean they can afford to wear a watch of their own. And I've had enough of this curse that I can't shake. Anyone else want it?

January 24, 2008 7:31 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

You rock Zuma! Putting out the word like you do here. Ignore the hater. Lot's of people are with yo and hope you get your own radio show one of these days for all your efforts.

January 24, 2008 8:01 PM  

Anonymous zuma's press deputy said:

Breaking News?: The New York Times on Thursday endorsed Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton and Republican Sen. John McCain for their party's nominations to contest the U.S. presidential in November.

full story under "news wires" at strategyupdate.com (click blue link)

January 24, 2008 9:18 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Hey Zuma. Here's the solution: Go get a J - O - B.

Then you can save alittle and start betting the market.

Pretty soon you'll be richer than Buffet. Warren? Nah, Jimmy.

The trouble with being a good loser is that if you scratch a good loser, you'll find a loser every time.

Give it up, Zuma. Go get ajob flipping burgers if you need to. At least you'll eat well.

January 24, 2008 9:26 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Take your own advice 9:26. What goes around comes around.

January 24, 2008 10:07 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

A van is cozier than a pt cruiser.

January 24, 2008 10:20 PM  

Blogger Zuma Dogg said:

9:26 pm,

Thanks for the advice. I didn't know my relatives commented on this blog.

January 24, 2008 10:22 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Hi Cousin Zuma

January 24, 2008 10:23 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

hi son!

January 24, 2008 10:24 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Uncle Zuma, we found you!

January 24, 2008 10:25 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Hey Loser -

It is about time for you to predict a huge layoff by Ford Motors for the coming year.

January 25, 2008 1:39 AM  

Blogger Santiago said:

What really scared Bernanke into action

With global investors running scared, he had to protect Brand America, says EDWARD HELMORE

The Great Depression is the subject of US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's considerable scholarship. "If you want to learn about seismic activity, you study earthquakes, not tremors," he is apt to say. But as an expert on how to prevent crises from spinning out of control, his emergency rate cut of three-quarters of a point before breakfast on Tuesday was puzzling.

With no new economic data to act on, it looked to many like a purely political manoeuvre designed to reduce volatility in the market. Yet Bernanke prides himself on being an academic above the fray of politics. So why send such panicky signals just as world leaders gather at Davos?

The answer is he had no choice. Few believe that President Bush's $150bn economic stimulus package will have a long-term effect. Nor is it likely the US economy (70 per cent of which is domestic consumer spending) can be tricked into higher gear: consumers who propelled growth during Bush's war-spending, tax- cutting presidency, are tapped out. The Dow Jones, some believe, could drop 5,000 points to 2001 levels over the next 18 months.

What unnerved Bernanke was that Monday's global sell-off was driven not by small and retail investors but by investment banks and hedge funds. Faced with what amounted to a wholesale depreciation of US foreign-held assets, Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Jr simply abandoned decades of monetary fiscal policy that preached fighting inflation foremost, and decided to protect Brand America.

January 25, 2008 6:38 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

The New York Times really is endorsing Bill Clinton since he's been out there campaigning for himself.

January 25, 2008 7:03 AM  

Blogger Santiago said:


January 25, 2008 8:50 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Anonymous said...
The New York Times really is endorsing Bill Clinton since he's been out there campaigning for himself.

Confucius not amused!
How bout you try to engage, -like human to human some time? Your inner social child is itching to get out. Mature adult act like chimpanzee teenager

January 25, 2008 9:07 AM  

Anonymous don quixote said:

Z Dogg, hey man don't listen to the haters you have been right on as far as the stock market, ecomomic situation and the rising price of metals like gold and silver and I made some dinero due to your smart observations, Thanks!

Keep on keeping on ZD, stay smart and keep helping people with your insigt, what goes around comes around, and you'll be on the receiving list soon.
Remember the lyrics to the song by the great Bob Dylan? "When you ain't got nothing you ain't got nothing to lose"
You may be in a better position than you think Z Dogg!

Hey this article I found is a little long but is one of the best and most precise explanations of our past, current, and future ecomomic situation. It's like a ecomomic 101 class although from a certain point of view that maybe all would not agree on but I do.
If it's too long and you got to delete it that's alright, I can dig it.
The worst market crisis in 60 years
By George Soros

Published: January 22 2008 19:57 | Last updated: January 22 2008 19:57

The current financial crisis was precipitated by a bubble in the US housing market. In some ways it resembles other crises that have occurred since the end of the second world war at intervals ranging from four to 10 years.

However, there is a profound difference: the current crisis marks the end of an era of credit expansion based on the dollar as the international reserve currency. The periodic crises were part of a larger boom-bust process. The current crisis is the culmination of a super-boom that has lasted for more than 60 years.

read more

January 25, 2008 9:30 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"A Loser's Career in Government; a Classic Study"

Unable to get traction with the Los Angeles City Council, our hero turned his attention to the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors.

Shortly after becomming an unpaid, unheeded and unneeded advisor to the BOS, our hero then moved to the LAUSD, where the obtained a similar position.

A few weeks of advising the LAUSD Board without results convinced him to move to financial advisor. He obtained a job as an unasked, unneeded and unheeded financial advisor to the Blogging Burro Community.

Each night, he carefully flipped his coin and it determined the course of the markets in the coming day.

But wait, that fizzled out, because the government interfered with his predictions, causing them to be totally wrong.

This has caused our hero to become a reporter on the fiscal actions of the Federal Government, where he is now employed as an unpaid, unneeded and unheeded reporter and prognosticator of Federal Fiscal Policy.

This is a classic case of A.D.D.; a person who, over a year period, cannot stay focused on any one mission or assignement.

What's next? Your guess is as good as mine, or his. I guess, wherever the failure of his current assignment seems to come from will be investigated.

January 26, 2008 2:49 AM  

Blogger Zuma Dogg said:

2:49 am,

Were my predictions totally wrong? Carefully flipped a coin, huh! LOL! It's all there for the record on the blog. LOOK AT THOSE PREDICTIONS!!!


A week ago last Monday, I predicted that the market would drop to the high 11,000 range -- and it dropped to the high 11,000 range to the day!!! (When everyone was sure we were moving back to 13,500.) THAT'S HUGE!

Posted about the subprime/housing foreclosure crisis in May '07, predicting a party-popping bubble-bursting recession starting in six months. That would have been November '07. (Clears throat: "A-hem!") Check the headlines and do a timeline, y'all. TO THE WEEK, Y'ALL!!!

Did I say Apple would drop to $129, the day it dropped to $129.

The day I picked SNCR it skyrocketed 20% at one point in the day. (It was nothing but down, down, down until that day.)

In October, I told people sell Starbucks at $23, it was going to $18. They told me I was full of sh*t and to shut up. It went to $18.)

I told people back in the day to buy Apple -- AT $15!!! (FIFTEEN DOLLARS!!!) Of course when I said sell at $200, they didn't. It's a $129 and falling.

Q: Did I say Gold was about to skyrocket at 12mid -- 9 hours before the opening bell...only to have it close at an all time high.

A: Yes! (If you wanna know where it will be on Monday, call me.)

And you gotta admit...the day i predicted doomsday on the market, it did indeed happen, causing the fed to come out and make an emergency rate cut. (Unheard of!)

So I obviously called that one!!!

The next day, before the bell, I said the doom ain't over, the Fed can't save it -- and the market dropped 300 points on the bell -- and Bush had to rush out with his bond insurance bail-out package -- only to find out on Thursday (the media covered it on Friday) that it was all B.S. (no talk at all) -- and the market returned a 100 point gain -- and went south another 171 points.

And the Fed cut didn't ruin my plans, anymore than a wind change causes an airline pilot to make a change in the course due to wind conditions.

Check the two gold stocks I picked about on Friday: PAL & VGZ and see if you can find any other two gold stocks that went up more. (There was only one gold stock up more than these two (based on new CEO news) -- so I picked 2 of the top 3 most up gold stocks on the planet -- AND I ONLY PICKED 2!!! (As opposed to picking eight and having two place)...

and they were up ALOT more than the rest of the pack. (Check the charts!) PAL up 9% Friday, when the market was down. And it is a $4.00 stock, so you could have bought tons!)

Regarding my recent study of the stock market....excuse me, but a close family member of mine inherited a stock portfolio -- so it kinda became my problem, to some extent. (Only if you care about someone other than yourself, so you won't understand.)

And that's why I started looking into it, and being some kind of genius in my own right...we started to see that my predictions were becoming hauntingly true.

So i started putting it on the blog for my friends and family to see, so i didn't have to repeat the info five times a day.

And if someone is a public advocate, it is because they don't like to see people get burnt...and you gotta admit -- although no issue impacts every reader, all the time -- the economy and stock market has kinda moved to the front of the burner so far in '08. (And if companies tanks, so does your job.)

So I put some updates here, and hits are up on my strategy site, so people are checking. Not HUGE amounts of people, but about 100 new people checked out the site, this week, when I hadn't had a new readers in a month, previously.)

So I don't see why you make it seem like it's a change in direction for me, instead of expanding into new issues (and they ARE political) that affect readers. (At one time, I only spoke about Venice Beach!?!?)

All that other stuff about LAUSD/BOS/CC...you're just insane. Look how obsessed you are with me. Everyone can see this.

If someone were to read this blog for the first time, they would think "Zuma Dogg" is some kind of huge central figure in the city, otherwise why would people be so obsessed.

You think you know a lot about me, but I guess you know just enough to come off as a buffoon.

Meanwhile I think it's clear: You continue to suffer from the same problem...bad reading comprehension.

I continue to say the reason you are so angry and so wrong all the time, is because you suffer from low reading comprehension. You do not read things in their entirety, or you are not able to focus, or whatever. Then you end up taking things out of context and you get burnt.

But you are obviously projecting your fears and frustrations on me...so I am sorry you got burnt by the emergency Fed cut. And I stand behind every word and every prediction I made.

AND I'M TELLING YOU NOW...THE MARKET AIN'T IN GOOD SHAPE AND YOUR AVERAGE IDIOT LIKE YOU IS GONNA LOSE IT ALL. READ THE BLOG. (Check the predictions vs your own time line charts/research against it.)


You think every time there is a closing bell, that it is the final closing bell of all time.

Regarding LAUSD/CC/BOS...is there anyone reading this who thinks I was ineffective as a one-man, unpaid political activist this past year? Hmmm...maybe I better double up my efforts.

FINALLY: Is there anything I can do to help with your emotional problems? I'm here for you. Believe it or not, I don't like to think anyone is so hot-headed over my day to day actions. I don't get it: If I'm such a loser who is so ineffective, why are you paying attention to me. Even American Idol fans have forgotten about William Hung.

StrategyUpdate.com: comclick "daily blog" link

disclosure: ZD owns PAL

January 26, 2008 7:13 AM  

Anonymous William Hung said:

Eat shit and die!

January 26, 2008 8:09 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

Ye Gods, man, have you no shame?

ZD go get a job.

January 26, 2008 2:29 PM  

Blogger Zuma Dogg said:

Can you come up with any other response other than, "ZD get a job?"

First of all, that doesn't make me wrong. And do you realize how weak and judgmental that is of you?

If I had a job and posted the same thing, would that be o.k.? How about if I was independently wealthy.

Or maybe I should just let you humiliate and intimidate me into allowing you to say whatever you want about me, whenever you want, 24 hours a day -- without clarifying for people who may see it.

I was just going to just delete your empty post. Next time, I'll just do that.

And by now you should know whether I have any shame or not.

January 26, 2008 3:34 PM  

Blogger Zuma Dogg said:


I WANT everyone to see that shameless posts...this is no time for fun and games in the stock market. How much have people lost since Jan 02, 08 when I begged everyone to pull out.



My friend told me he was down 67% this year -- and added, "There's no way anyone could have known the market could tank this hard. We've never seen anything like this."

This of course, after all I did was warn him for the previous month -- only to have him argue with me on how wrong I was because it always comes back around -- and he is the one who made a million in the stock market already.) Again, down 67%.

Now everyone I know is all cranky and bitter all the time, just like me now...and everyone is canceling plans and cutting back. BUT...the worst part is...

THEY THINK IT CAN'T GET ANY WORSE -- AND EVEN THOUGH I HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALL ALONG -- NOW IS WHEN I START BEING WRONG. (They said that when Apple was at $200, Google was $750 and the market was at 13,500 on the way to 14,000.)

If I can keep one person from losing their life savings, then it was worth it. Even if it's you.

AND THAT'S THE POINT. So I'm glad everyone saw my shameless post, so next time chicken little blogs that it's time to open the umbrella, you open the umbrella, instead of focusing on the personality and lifestyle conditions of the author.

January 26, 2008 4:01 PM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

"When Merrill Lynch speaks...people listen."

When Warren Buffet speaks, people listen.

When Alan Greenspan speaks, people listen.

When ZD speaks, pople laugh; not with him, at him.

January 27, 2008 2:31 AM  

Anonymous zuma's press deputy said:

Dear 2:49am (person who is angry at ZD about his global economy predictions),

Here is an article I came across today, that I think you may benefit from.


Sure, you have to be confident in one scenario if you're going to take action in the markets. But you also need to be open to the possibility that you could be wrong. That way, as new information comes out, you'll be able to quickly change direction if necessary.

This realistic approach is a trader's best friend, especially in the kind of volatile markets we have today.

full article

Hope it helps, and hope it makes you feel more confident.

January 27, 2008 6:29 AM  

Anonymous matt dowd's economy watch said:

here's the problem with the stimulus package:

every joe dummy consumer is gonna run out and buy an I phone or an Ipod or a computer or device of some sort that has invariably come from China.
thinking that by buying something their stimulating.
its really just more billions to China.

America: stop buying 'things', and start saving your money in the bank. Pay off your mortgage and credit with the money. Avoid interest payments. Thats an immediate way to stimulate and promote a better economy.
Everything starts with NOT getting suckered into buying the latest 'thing'.

how many Made in China electronic items have you bought lately?

January 27, 2008 10:08 AM  

Anonymous Anonymous said:

When you don't have a job and you don't have any money to invest, why waste time reading the financial pages?

Why not just get a job so you can invest some money and then read the pages and make some bets of your own, instead of suffering in poverty and begging for gas and coffee money?

You are one stramge dude.

January 27, 2008 2:46 PM  

Blogger Zuma Dogg said:

Yes, I am one stramge dude. I don't think it's a waste of time though. I've kept some friends and loved ones from losing some money. And some made a lot. And if I ever come into money, I'll be ready and know what to do on that day. Some people follow the sports pages, but will never touch the ball. But they are experts on every stat. Talk about a waste of time! Meanwhile, it's been tremendously gratifying these past three months, watching the market. It's better than Vegas and more compelling than any reality show. LOVE IT! Even if I am just watching from the sidelines, for the mostpart -- except for a little PAL, AUY and EGO. (Pray for a rate cut!)

But regarding being one stramge dude...you are right. I'm just as obsessive compulsive as the rest of you wackos. I just channel it in a different direction.

January 27, 2008 6:51 PM  

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