The Newest Poll (For now anyways)
Polls
KABC released their newest poll last evening. As many of you have already commented, the various camps are either
A) touting their success, or
B) Discrediting the hell out of the firm who ran it.
The results are:
Antonio Villaraigosa 36%
James Hahn 19%
Bernard Parks 15%
Bob Hertzberg 14%
Richard Alarcon 6%
Other/Undecided 10%
No matter how you dice it though, it appears Tony is in, Hahn is in deep sh*&%t, and Hertzberg is moving up.
The funniest part as Mack Reed points out is the posturing and sparring between the camps.
Villaraigosa blasts and posts away as if the poll is the holy grail of politics (Note that Hertzberg's camp even got a word in edge wise their as well). Hertzberg blasted discrediting the company and logic behind the poll, and Hahn is MIA. Nothing changes I guess...
Posted by Anonymous @ 2/23/2005 10:31:00 AM
26 Comments:
Survey USA has actually been about as accurate as other polling firms--correctly detecting Schwarzenegger's surge in the recall long before other polling systems, as the most memorable example.
In races where there is one candidate whom people may support but might be afraid to admit it (Schwarzenegger, and perhaps, Villaraigosa?) the Robo-polls can be more accurate than human polls!
Is there anything left to say on this subject? But once again, MEAT has proven himself to be a complete moron. Every expert - acknowledged expert, not the self-appointed type like MEAT, - has criticized the methodology of the Survey USA survey/poll.
I still prefer the robber-poll on the left.
SurveyUSA has been very wrong in LA primaries before. Just three weeks before the 2001 primary, SurveyUSA said that Hahn was beating Villaraigosa by 12. Villaraigosa ended up beating Hahn by 6.
SurveyUSA does not use a live person to administer their surveys. The questions are asked by a computer-generated digitally record voice. Responses are recorded via the keypad on the respondent’s phone. In the words of Michael Traugott, chair of the Communications Studies Department at the University of Michigan and an expert on political polling, one of the “limiting factors” in this kind of polling is that the polling firm, he said, “has no idea who is on the other end of the phone. It could be a kid or someone who doesn’t live at that address.”
SurveyUSA chooses who to call on the basis of their phone number, rather than by selecting from a list of actual voters. This kind of sampling, known as Random Digit Dial, relies on voters to tell the truth about whether they are likely to vote in the election in question. In high turnout elections, this is not much of a problem – the respondent really is likely to vote. But in low turnout elections like the one happening next month, non-voters are more inclined to lie and give the socially desirable response – “of course I plan to vote” – than admit that they never actually make it to the polls.
In low turnout elections, RDD sampling introduces bias. Candidates with low name recognition are even less well known by non-voters than they are by likely voters. In other words, an RDD survey in a low turnout election will overstate the strength of a well-known candidate – like Antonio Villaraigosa, Jim Hahn or Bernard Parks
Anyone who defines their own individual ANAL-ysis of a 3rd party poll as "definitive" is too full of themselves to be taken seriously by anyone not under 72-hour surveillance.
I'm sure the "Anal-yst" you reference, who has also posted blatantly racist stereotypes on this blog more than once, has been on a "72" on several occasions...
Harriman - You're going to make an ass of yourself if you keep using phrases like "I will respond to intelligent comments, not to crude character assassination. Here's an intelligent comment" when you follow it up with bull. Tony was already up on the air.
Mystery Pollster has a good analysis and interview with the Survey USA people that everyone should read before citing just one example:
http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2005/02/the_hotlines_su.html
I'm praying to the Virgin Mary, Allah, Buddah and so on that big Tony V. is the highest vote getter and becomes are Mayor. Yeahhhhh, Tony V.
And I'm praying to "pope Tony" that he settle down and learn one job at a time. He's still in "remedial councilmember" stage, and if failing miserably at running 1/15th of the city.
If you think any mayor runs the city you are foolish. It's really about the chief of staff and his/her assistants. Tony V., while he has his flaws, will accomplish that much. Don't hate. Join the coronation of Tony V.
"Don't Hate"
Sorry, I will always reserve to right to "hate" being used by any politician for purely political gains, especially when there's no upside for the faithful but "warm fuzzies." I will always "hate" being lied to; I'll "hate" watching nothing get done for almost two years in CD14; I'll "hate" being sold a 8-year-supply of snake oil - which is criminal in and of itself - but then to have the supply run out after only 2 when there's no real medicine to replace it; I "hate" hero-worshipping superficials who just want to hold hands and "bring consensus" until progress grinds to a halt.
Continue to join the "coronation" as you see fit. This emperor has plenty of clothes -- but they're all empty suits.
If you believe critical analysis of the fact that a city councilmember lied to get into office, and hasn't told the truth yet about doing nothing since is "hate" -- then I guess I "hate" you, too! Hating fraud and criminal neglect is a "good" thing.
Heard at a breakfast meeting that the ADV staff has been shouting at constituents for not listening and doing what they say. Constituents were threatened for not wanting to participate in clean up. When seniors call they are rudely dismissed. Assholes! I can hardly wait til that four eyed fool named Paul Hernandez, that rude, disrespectful, threatening B---h Lisa Sarno, Jimmy, and that little arrogant uppty fool Doria Garcia and Andreana all get canned for being without a doubt the worst field staff amongst all council districts.
Hey, they'll probably all get promoted to deputy mayors. . . then the Westside can "enjoy" them, too! Ha!
Interesting that KABC didn't even mention this poll in their evening news broadcast last night, just a few hours after the numbers broke. I suppose they'd rather make the candidates pay to air their campaign commercials (at least 3 did during that 30 minutes), than give them free airtime. The station has to pay for the poll somehow.
It's still not on the station's news website. How serious are they taking any of this??
I just got polled.
they said auto dial poll.
I felt like somone was polling on behalf of one of the candidates. I wonder if polls are used as a way of campainging , does anyone know.
They really really wanted to know who I was going to vote for.
I gave hahn a 10 , hertberg a 8 , villaraigosa a 1 , and parks a 10. and Alarcon a 5. I am a moderate.
They asked about the vignali issue, guess what to me it doesn't matter anymore. The Enron issue is another thing altogether.
I could have lied my butt off on this poll. HOw can these things be accurate? And I wonder if it was Hahns campaing calling to get this poll. They told me they don't know who was polling.
But thye sure did have a lot of dirt on hertzberg when theybwere askng questions. I guess because I rated him a 8.
if this is an omen , it looks like Hahn may start going after huggy bear.
or it may just be a coincidence. Because I gave hertzberg an 8 the dirt sure did come out about him. They didn't ask about any dirt on Hahn.
sorry I posted in the oother thread, with so many posts on the home page I guess I keep getting confused.
Hey, a very good source tells me that the Mayor is polling right now and may hit tomorrow with new television commercials, dependent upon the tracking (another easy piece vs an attack piece on Hertzberg and perhaps Tony V. lumped together).
Rumor from good source also has it that this isn't the first of polls done by Hahn, but he hasn't released them because............his numbers are low and he wouldn't be able to claim they were inaccurate since his poll.
Last intelligence is that there is a rift in his camp between his two top campaign people as to strategy. One wants to hit hard and hit hard now and the other wants nothing to do with it because of last year and feels it will hurt more than help and it is overkill to get Hahn into the final battle....where they will have shot their wad.
They also don't know how to handle Hertzberg's proposal for clean campaign and are trying to say the Hertzberg campaign is negative....but that doesn't stick .
Interesting times ahead.
I suppose that's Hertzberg's spin on it anyway
So, since you hate anonymity, "Ginn14." we can only guess "Ginn14" is the name on your driver's license (first or last, little hypocrite?), and is the picture there a "?" - too?
GINN! Before you rant on, and say there was no money (another lie fed you by Tony's transplants), go back and read the transition memo from summer 2003 and see where most of those projects now stand. The only substantive "change" in the district in almost two years has been the name on those blue metal signs out in front of the council offices (the city did that) and the repeatedly updated "completion" dates for funded, approved CD projects that constituent groups worked to move ahead for years BAV, many of them didn't even NEED much city money to move ahead - just attention. If you really are from the district, you also do a huge disservice to your hard working neighbors when you say Tony V. has been responsible for any positive change. Activists have been going AROUND the CD staff more than through them, or else nothing would have moved forward. The council office has been on auto-pilot for at least the past year (before that, they simply claimed "we don't know HOW to move anything ahead, yet... give us time to learn our jobs"), while AV made plans to parachute out and become mayor.
Now, all his little starry eyed staff members are keeping busy doodling their hopeful "new" 3rd-floor titles on their current business cards, like some lovesick schoolgirl handwriting "Mrs. Tony Villar" on her Peechee folder instead of listening in class.
I would love to see all the anonymous posters who bash Villaraigosa's Staff to go head-to-head with them out in public. War of the Worlds! Blood In Blood Out! The Rumble in the Jungle!
Look, I know that there are legitimate claims against his office (I have my own), but I have to admit that I have seen more people out there that are a few eggs short of a dozen complain than people who really care about the area and are not just blowing hot air.
So, are you anti-Tony V bloggers ready to come out and openly criticize the staff? I'm sure that you have done so in our own way or place, but with having YOU be the people here talking, I want to know WHO is doing the walking.
RIGHT... so we can swap very POOR consituent service for NONE at all. You have me (anyway) confused with some gullible ADV supporter that thinks he just wants to "build consensus" and have everyone get along. His staff's vindictiveness is legendary. Pass!
Look they're either on their way to the 3rd floor, or facing a recall, or lame duck in some form (because ADV is not sticking around here if he loses for mayor). The next joker in that office could not possibly be any worse in terms of selecting staff...
I wonder if the pole would change much if Walter Moore were on it?
er. Poll
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