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Monday, May 20, 2013

On Eve of Election, Things Look Good for Garcetti, Feuer; Controller's Race Too Close to Call

The latest edition of the USC/LA Times poll, which appears to be the most reliable of an otherwise paucity of surveys during the recent municipal election cycle, shows City Council Member Eric Garcetti sliding to a likely win in tomorrow's election. The poll, released Friday, has Garcetti up seven points on opponent, City Controller Wendy Greuel, comfortably outside the margin of error. Garcetti appears to be up in every demographic group with the exception of African Americans and self-described "moderate" Republicans. Remarkably, the left leaning Garcetti has a significantly wide lead with conservatives, likely the result of hard core campaigning by former Mayoral candidate, Republican Kevin James, whose stand that Garcetti is the more trustworthy of the two, has clearly resonated with an Anglo Republican voter base in the San Fernando Valley, a block Greuel clearly counted on, and needed, to win. Our internal analysis of numbers from the primary election, combined with voter turnout projections show that Greuel's support is extremely soft in communities in her former Council District such as Sunland-Tujunga and North Hollywood, and that where there are intense City Council runoffs (thus boosting turnout), such as CD 1 and CD 13, these are areas where Garcetti pocketed the lion's share of votes in the April primary.

An even bigger blowout appears to be shaping up in City Attorney's race where former Assemblyman and Councilman Mike Feuer has a commanding 18% lead over incumbent Carmen Trutanich. Unless something is wrong in the methodology there, or Feuer's consultant "private citizen/political consultant" John Shallman has screwed the pooch on the get-out-the vote-effort, it's difficult to see where Trutanich wins at this point. As well, the better Garcetti does, expect that to lift Feuer's boat as one can surmise the bulk of Garcetti's liberal leaning voters will go in droves for the former Councilman. Winner here: Deputy District Attorney and full time Trutanich critic David Berger who's beat a one man drum for the ouster of Nuch ever since the two had their famous falling out a few years back.

Up in the air though is the City Controller's race. Polls show the battle between activist/businessman Ron Galperin and City Council Member Dennis Zine to be a dead heat. While Zine has out raised Galperin (who did front his own campaign a significant amount of his own personal wealth), Galperin, a registered Democrat, has the full support of the local Democratic party establishment, while Zine, who slid from red meat Republican to RINO to now, decline to state, isn't getting much help from the Republican Party since his well publicized bolting from it. Expect all the Garcetti voters to go with Galperin, including a significant number of the James inspired "Garcetti Republicans" as the former mayoral candidate endorsed Galperin as well. As Garcetti rises, likely so does Galperin. One thing of note, if elected, as far as we know, Galperin would be the first openly gay citywide elected official in Los Angeles. While Dennis Zine has ridden his motorcycle dressed in full leather regalia in many a Gay Pride Parade, it's likely the gay community will swing here for one of their own.

It will be an interesting - and long - evening for sure.

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2 Comments:

Blogger Rumpole said:

Removing Trutanich from the City Attorney's office makes all Los Angelenos winners. Nuch has proven, time and time again, that he cannot be trusted and that he has a troubled relationship with the truth. Los Angeles is better off without him. By rejecting Trutanich voters will send a powerful message to his successor and other politicians; there is a real price to be paid for breaking promises, betraying our trust, and treating us like fools.

Mike Feuer may not be everyone's ideal choice for City Attorney (I supported Greg Smith), but at least you know who he is, and what he believes in. The LA Times called him an 'honest broker' and Laura Chick said he was one of the most honorable and decent men in politics. Having met Feuer, I have to agree.

But with Nuch, as personable, charismatic and manipulative as he is, you never really know what he stands for. His support for AB109 was for no other reason other than to get Gov. Brown's endorsement for his DA campaign. He supported giving driver licenses to illegal aliens and not impounding cars driven by unlicensed illegal aliens, to appeal to the Latino community. For the same reason, he signed off on a $4.2M payout to the two women mistakenly shot at by LAPD during the Dorner manhunt, faster than you can say 'vote for me!' I'm not saying they did not deserve compensation, but the speed at which he settled that case was astonishing. He didn't even take a deposition!

Every other case he handles get's the 'Porcupine Defense,' a foolish strategy that delays and obstructs settlement of cases, many of which deserve to be settled. The timing of that settlement stinks, and everyone knows it. There was no earthly reason why it could not have waited until after the election, but Nuch pushed it through for his own political reasons.

Nuch does not care about public safety or protecting the 'treasury.' He cares about protecting his political career by pandering to whoever offers him a chance of hanging onto the job he did not want last year when he saw himself as heir apparent to the DA's office.

Voters saw through Nuch last year, and they will do the same thing tomorrow.

May 20, 2013 11:06 PM  

Blogger Unknown said:

A small point, but when a poll says it has a four percent margin of error, that is four points at both ends, so the numbers for Garcetti/Greuel are within the margin of error.

May 21, 2013 6:46 AM  

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