One for the Money, Two for the Show, The Other Three just Get Ready
One With The Money: Villaraigosa raises $658,022 in the last period for a total of $1.3 million and $1.6 million cash on hand
Two For the Show: Hertzberg raises $473,165 in the last period for a total of $1.5 million and $1.6 million cash on hand. Hahn raised
$472,882 for a total of $2.7 million and $2.4 million cash on hand.
The Other Three: Alarcon has $417,000 in the bank; Parks has $459,000 cash on hand; and Moore has $94,000 (loaned to himself).
Stories: LA Times, Daily News, Daily Breeze
Rather than drive your opinions, let's just have the free-for-all begin!
**The others who commented on the Mayoral Round-Up post regarding fundraising might want to re-add their posts here. I have copied "Meateaters" post already. This is the type of commentary we should strive for...
Posted by Anonymous @ 1/11/2005 06:10:00 AM
31 Comments:
FROM MEATEATER:
1) THIS FROM LA OBSERVER (read on after this for my analyis)
"Fast and loose *
Antonio Villaraigosa's campaign sent email to supporters this afternoon claiming that he's leading the race for mayor based on a poll released today by the Hertzberg campaign. The first problem is, Hertzberg didn't release a poll today (or any other day). Second, Hertzberg's spokesman Matt Szabo says their internal polling doesn't agree with the numbers Villaraigosa is claiming. When I called to ask what gives, Nathan James at the Villaraigosa headquarters couldn't explain the quite specific wording in his candidate's email, but he did say they were just passing along numbers published in CalPeek [the political newsletter by Dick Rosengarten in Beverly Hills]. Below is what CalPeek actually says, and what Villaraigosa's people made of it:
First the Calpeek item:
New Poll in L.A. Mayor's Race: This recent poll for former Assemblyman Bob Hertzberg was conducted by Andre Penada—that much has been confirmed by the Hertzberg campaign, but nothing else. Here are the numbers: Antonio Villaraigosa 24%, Mayor Jim Hahn 20%, Councilman Bernard Parks 15%, Hertzberg 10% & State Sen. Richard Alarcon 6%.
Andre Pineda (correct spelling) is indeed Hertzberg's pollster. Szabo would not discuss what their polling does find, other than to say "all the internal numbers we have show that Hahn is in trouble." Trying to read between the lines, I suspect there is a poll with these numbers or something very close. It's not surprising that Hertzberg's people won't confirm it—it's not flattering to his chances. But caveat emptor: We don't know when the poll was taken, what the question was, what the margin of error was or who got polled. Basically, it's pretty useless out of context (or else I would have led with the numbers.)
With CalPeek the sole source on the poll, what Villaraigosa did with it is surprising:
Dear Friend,
We have some great new news to share with you: Antonio Villaraigosa is leading the 2005 race for Los Angeles Mayor -- even in the polling released by our opponents!
Earlier today, the Bob Hertzberg campaign released the results of their just completed mayoral poll. Here is what it showed:
Villaraigosa 24%
Hahn 20%
Parks 15%
Hertzberg 10%
Alarcon 6%
This latest poll is certainly great news, and it confirms what our own polling shows and what we've been sensing over the past few weeks: Antonio's message is resonating with the voters, and our campaign has the momentum....
The email was signed by Senior Advisor Parke Skelton.
* Advantage Villaraigosa on fundraising: Hertzberg, on the other hand, just issued a press release claiming to be the best-funded challenger to Hahn. But the numbers from Villaraigosa's camp show that he did better in the latest reporting period and now has a bit more cash on hand than Hertzberg.
The relevant numbers:
First column: Amount raised 10/1-12/31
2nd: Total raised so far
3rd: Cash on hand
Villaraigosa $658,022 $1.307 M $1.614M
Hertzberg $473,165 $1.573 M $1.604M
Hahn $472,882 $2.74 M $2.434M"
MEATEATER ADDS SOME MORE ANALYSIS:
If you look at how much each of the leading mayoral candidates has raised, look at a couple of other statisitcs:
RAISED THIS PERIOD:
AV: $658K
BH: $473K
JH: $472K
RA: $188K
BP: ? (not posted yet)
WM: $94K
OVERHEAD (EXPENSES) ON AMOUNT RAISED THIS PERIOD:
AV: 13%
RA: 48%
JH: 57%
BH(Bob Spendsberg): 67% (WOW!)
BP: ?
WM: 6% (BUT DONATED HIMSELF)
Now, some folks may have spent money out on all sorts of things, some good (slates, like Maxine Waters' mailer to S. LA) and some bad (blogads, expensive consultants, etc.). Some may think there is no way AV's true expenses can be this low (in other words, he is waiting for the bills from his fundraisers, from his consultant, and to pay his campaign staff). Others may think this reflects fat in the Hahn and Hertzberg campaigns.
OK, so this brings us to the next point. How much will folks have to spend, as money is king and will put all this carping on the Mayor Sam blog to rest?
If the race were today, this is how is would break down:
Hahn has raised $2.7 million, received another $400,000 in matching funds ($3.1 million total) and has $2.4 million on hand, but as someone who has accepted public matching funds, he can only spend a total of $2.25 million. He has already spent $776,000, which means he has about $1.5 million left to spend on the campaign unless the spending ceiling is lifted (see below).
Blogsberg has raised about $1.6 million, received another $646,000 in matching funds ($2.25 million total--the maximum you can spend, by the way). But as another matching funds person, he has accepted a ceiling of $2.25 million and he has spent out $662,000, leaving him with about $1.6 million to spend, a little more than Hahn.
Villaraigosa has raised about $1.3 million, received an additional $428,000 in matching funds (for a total of $1.73 million). With expenses of just $120,000 Villaraigosa has about $1.6 million to spend as well, a little above Hahn.
HOWEVER, Villaraigosa is the only person who can raise more to spend more. He is the only one who still has another $500,000 to raise (take out some money for expenses and you net let's say $400,000), giving him somewhere in the ballpark of $2 million to spend.
Either AV is running a very bare-bones, shrewd campaign, or else he has put off a lot of his bills. On the other hand, Hahn and Hertzberg do not seem to have low overhead.
Now, none of this means squat if the expenditure ceiling is lifted. What does that mean? It means that the voluntary cap of $2.25 million that candidates who accept public matching funds have can be lifted if one of two things happens. First, if a rich guy spends the amount of money for the cap (spends at least $2.25 million) from his or her own funds. Since we don't see that millionaire on the horizon who hasn't accepted matching funds (Moore has for instance), Martin Luther King Aubrey Sr, Ted Crisell, or Addie Mae Miller would have to win the lottery really soon for the ceiling to be lifted in this way.
Which brings us to way number two. If an independent expenditure or expenditures for one specific candidate reaches $200,000 in this race, then the ceiling is lifted. Now in the Pacheco-Villaraigosa campaign, individual IEs (independent expenditures) reached this level, so there is little reason to doubt that this will happen in the mayor's race. So, for example, if SEIU 347 dumps $200,001 into the campaign for Hahn, or Ron Burkle does the same for Villaraigosa, or if an Indian tribe did that for Hertzberg, then EVEERYONE'S (yes, everyone's) ceiling is lifted.
Under this scenario, the big pile of cash that Hahn is sitting on suddenly comes into play. And Hertzberg isn't done fundraising (as he would be under a cap today).
So, if the IEs come rolling down the hill, they have a dual impact: 1) they help a candidate out and 2) they lift the expenditure ceiling, helping that candidate (and his/her opponents) out as well.
So this would seem to put Hahn back in the driver's seat financially, with Hertzberg in second only if the ceiling is raised. Otherwise, AV is going to have the most dough to get his message to the voters.
# posted by Anonymous : 1/10/2005 07:23:53 PM
FROM MEATEATER:
One last note. If those poll numbers are ballpark correct, if I were Bernard Parks and really wanted to be mayor or if I were Hertzberg, I would be spending (or more likely, my Indian friends) would be spending money coming after Villaraigosa to knock him into second. Parks probably doesn't care enough about being mayor (and doesn't have the contacts/support), but I bet some friends of Hertzberg or the campaign itself starts going after Antonio Villaraigosa. I would be on my guard if I were AV. And if BH or his friends don't, he is able to get into third with his money, but I agree that his campaign will be known as Soboroff 2005.
# posted by Anonymous : 1/10/2005 07:26:25 PM
Now that post actually had Meat to it. Very impressive. One might note that Hertzberg has a higher overhead because he doesn't have a built in staff of schedulers, staffers, city cars, etc.. that all four other current electeds have to capitalize on (and don't tell me that doesn't happen). Hahn is just bloated period, just like his PR budget. Villaraigosa did raise a huge amount. This should get interesting now that the field is quickly dwindling to three.
We all know where Hahn's money comes from -
http://www.dailynews.com/Stories/0,1413,200~20954~2646212,00.html"
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/los_angeles_metro/la-me-abrams11jan11,1,5219064.story?coll=la-commun-los_angeles_metro
How weird is the spending? How the hell has Antonio only spent $120k vs. $165k fo Alarcon, $775k for Hahn, $661k for Hertzberg, and $344k for Parks. Meat must be right when he said he wasn't paid, because it looks as if no one is. What's he hiding?
Villaraigosa is a snake and I wouldn't believe anything he says. Word is he's using his council staff to do a lot of legwork for him. Thus, doesn't have to pay from his mayoral campaign. More importantly though can't count out the LA Business Journal poll of last week putting Hahn ahead of AV and Parks. AV has proven to lack integrity and credibility so I hope someone researches exactly where he got his money. Interesting there is a family of 6 on his campaign donations that each gave a total of $1,000. However, no one has ever heard of them.
Villaraigosa is a snake. Hertzberg has the campaign that can't shoot straight. Hahn's looking good.
Hahn looks good? Where are you looking? Today's news stories are the usual suspects of Hahn backers making illegal campaign contributions, and if anyone is using the advantages of their current office (more than Antonio), its Hahn. I'm anxious to see how 'steamlined' a campaign AV and Poopy run when they have to pay the piper. Bob is like traditional voting blocs; what used to be cut and dried isn't up for grabs like it used to be. AV and Poopy thought they had the race locked up as a re-match, and I'm thankful he's throwing a wrench into the spokes to mix things up and keep everyone on their toes.
Hahn looks good? Where are you looking? Today's news stories are the usual suspects of Hahn backers making illegal campaign contributions, and if anyone is using the advantages of their current office (more than Antonio), its Hahn. I'm anxious to see how 'steamlined' a campaign AV and Poopy run when they have to pay the piper. Bob is like traditional voting blocs; what used to be cut and dried isn't up for grabs like it used to be. AV and Poopy thought they had the race locked up as a re-match, and I'm thankful he's throwing a wrench into the spokes to mix things up and keep everyone on their toes.
He wants to keep them on their toes or WIN!
Sit back folks and watch the show. I'm told things will heat way up very very soon. We haven't even seen the tv ads yet. There's a ELA Democratic Club mayoral debate this month. Rumor hs it Gloria Molina is organizing it for Antonio. Talk about sneaky. Why would the other mayoral candidates debate when the host are from the county?
Just read this update on LA Observed-
* Add Parks: The councilman was the only candidate to spend more than he took in during the last period. Looks like hiring a big team of Democratic consultants from out of town didn't pay off. Eric Jaye's Storefront Political Media in San Francisco got $61,000, campaign manager Carol Butler $36,000 and consultant Mark Fabiani $30,000. Parks spent double what Villaraigosa and Alarcon did, during the crucial period when he should have been stocking the treasury.
Got you finally Meat. Look at the host committee for Antonio's birthday. Can you believe he has the nerve to be asking for campaign donations instead of presents. How desperate. Look who's on the host committee Meat....,Co-Host, Cynthia Ruiz, former commissioner who's been saying she has nothing to do with Antonio's campaign....also on host Roland Aranjo,Luis Ayala John Brown,Martin Farfan,Jorge & Maribel Gonzales,Don Jones,Clare and Mark Kenyon,Suzanne Manriquez, Linda McGuire,Ana Medina,Tammy Membreno,Pete Navarro,Jim Pinon,Irene Ponce,Santos Rodriguez
Oh and isn't Alvin Parra the one LA Times nailed big time for doing something illegal with his wife's campaign. Anyone remember what that was? Antonio is as guilty as the company he keeps
FROM MEAT:
Gotten me finally -- the only thing you got is a bad case of MISTAKES.
Let's see, Cynthia Ruiz doesn't donate a single penny to Antonio's campaign, yet according to folks on this blog she was campaiging for him. Now that she was booted off the commission and replaced by Yolanda Fuentes (who by the way missed her 2nd week on the job, nice start yolie), she helps a candiate for mayor now that she's allowed too, and yet somehow this proves your old point of her campaiging for Antonio when she was a commissioner? I don't get it.
As for Alvin Parra doing a stupid thing during his wife's campaign -- ok i'll give you that. He wrote a memo that he shouldn't have, but to say that because of a bad memo written this somehow makes Antonio look bad -- wow, wheres the beef?
If its a case of who you hang with is who you are like -- than Hahn hanging out with a bunch of corrupt people like Fitzgerald (a hahn donor now a fugitive, since he has left the country) and O'Donnell where there's a huge investigation on him. Nevermind the fact that some of the largest fines ever issued by the Ethics commission are being handed down one by one to Hahn's donors, must mean by your thinking that Hahn is a criminal, money-launderer and corrupt politician. If you think that -- then you sir, agree 100% with me.
blog away.
FROM MEAT:
fyi from the WAVE newspapers - a South LA publication.
http://www.wavenewspapers.com/default.asp?twindow=Poll
Who would you vote for in the L.A. mayoral race?
13% Jim Hahn
28% Antonio Villaraigosa
10% Robert Hertzberg
46% Bernard Parks
4% Richard Alarcon
The people who read that rag would vote for OJ Simpson if given the choice.
MEAT, or FAT, still hasn't provided lists of either the 72 neighborhood watch groups set up under Villaraigosa or the bar owners who have, according to FAT (Fan of Antonio Tautology), given to the recall effort. Until then, FAT, you have no credibility.
*For FAT. Tautology = And empty statement which can be false or true but basically means nothing. Needless reptition of the same old thing.
Again, another lame poll on their website where anyone can vote a hundred times. Parks is looking so bad these days poor Jr. probably had to sit there and click them in.
FROM MEAT:
Thanks for holding me accountable -- didn't realize i was on your timeline for this much needed info.
I can't believe that the poster had the balls to say that MEAT doesn't have credibility. He, along with MEATEATER and one or two other serious posters are the only people who come on here and make statements and arguments that they attempt to support with some sort of supporting references or facts. If anybody needs to be labeled FAT, it's the posters who come on here and start talking without stating opinions or facts and just bitch about Antonio spending alot of time out of the city supporting Kerry and making statements of his staff making trips to campaign for him (which if they did on their own time, more power to them) - none supported by any firm evidence presented on here.
It's clear to anybody with any level of common sense who is lean meat on here and who needs to be processed for bacon.
I am cracking up at the visual of Jr. clicking away at the on line poll. His father most likley doesn't know how to use the computer himself.
To FAT: Why is there a timeline? You make statements, you need to back them up. In fact, you were the one who said you would provide the inofrmation. So, where is it?
In the meantime, you have NO credibility.
MEAT makes one statement with two items in it that he hasn't brought up the figures for, and you say that he has NO credibility??? He's one of the original posters from the good ol' days of the 4th Floor Blog, where he numerously went up against anybody willing to go toe-to-toe against him, and you claim he's got NO credibility because of 1 statement?
To the blogger making the remark: what topics have you participated in by blogging, and what comments did you make in them along with the facts and information that you provided to make your point? You're surely somebody to talk when you have yet to make an identifiable presence like MEAT, MEATEATER, and the other knowledgable bloggers.
Should FAT get a pass when he makes statements, false statements, I believe, that 1) Villaraigosa set up 70 odd neighborhood watches since he has been councilmember for CD14 and 2) bar owners in CD14 are financially supporting the recall? If a Hahn supporter or a Hertzberg supporter or a Parks supporter was making such statements about your buddy Villaraigosa you, and FAT, would be shouting for all you are worth: "Where's the proof?" Isn't that a fact? So, why doesn't the same rule apply to FAT? FAT said he would post the proof, read his earlier postings. I am the person who calls Meat FAT. So I have an identifiable presence. And when I make a statement, unlike FAT, I will have the documentation to back it up. In fact, I will post something that will be of interest to you Villaraigosa fans in a few days.
Regarding Parks and the Wave:
Nice racist comment about O.J. I’m sure ALL black people agree on ALL things, minus, of course, Clarence Thomas, Colin Powell and Condaleeza Rice. Seems, however, that the numbers on the Wave’s poll show Parks can’t even get a majority of African Americans to support him.
And if you think the Wave loves him, read Betty Pleasant who blasted him for voting against the $500 million community mitigation money for LAX. Soul Vine column – Dec. 30, 2004
Or the article on Parks’ “plantation” campaign: Soul Vine Nov 18, 2004.
Or how Parks’ poor campaign might marginalize the black vote in LA: Soul Vine Nov. 11, 2004.
Or the article in last week’s edition on how he went AGAINST the community in supporting a liquor license in a South LA neighborhood plagued by crime:
http://www.wavenewspapers.com/default.asp?sourceid=&smenu=78&twindow=Default&mad=No&sdetail=3591&wpage=1&skeyword=&sidate=&ccat=&ccatm=&restate=&restatus=&reoption=&retype=&repmin=&repmax=&rebed=&rebath=&subname=
The real story in all this is that Villaraigosa is in second place in this non-scientific poll. If he were to get into a run-off with Hahn, be prepared to see Martin Ludlow, Karen Bass and Mark Ridley Thomas to push Villaraigosa in the black community. Also, anticipate that Maxine Waters will jump behind him . . . given the rumor that Hahn screwed her after she endorsed him in the last election.
Well, Antonio will need that support to offset the losses he will suffer on the eastside. Approximately 71-72% fours years ago. Any bets this time? I say under 50%.
I would be embarrassed to have Maxine "b---h" Waters behind me. She's an embarrassement to her own district. She's emotional and hasn't done a damn thing for the violence in her own backyard. She told her district to vote NO on Measure A. The following week they're asking for more police officers. She wrote a letter in support of Surge Knight before they sentenced his ass to jail. Knight, the one who calls his wife, girlfriend, sisters whores on his songs. This is a woman I want the endorsement of. It's a lot different from 4 years ago. Antonio has lied to his community and people in the South don't like him as much because of that. Word is getting to South about the trouble Antonio is in CD14. Word travels fast. They're not going to jump until the recall stuff goes away. ITS NOT GOING AWAY
Sorry to burst your bubble, but the only folks who care about that joke of a recall are you and the two or three of the “recall committee members.” No one in South LA has heard about or cares about that ruse. Nice try. But again, no matter how many times you say it, it don’t make it so!
As for Maxine, regardless of how YOU feel about her or what she has or hasn’t done, she moves the voters. And in this game, that’s all that matters.
I was in the South at a big community meeting. Everyone there knows about the recall effort and they all agreed if Antonio LIED to his district and made false promises, they should nail his butt to a cross. Blacks and Latinos feel they've been wrongly attacked in this city many times. IF the Latinos have one of their own giving them empty promises and lies then the Blacks agree to recall him. Maxine Waters is a loser. Larry Elder sure humilating her during the whole Parks issue.
Below are 2 comments….
FROM MEAT:
Wow its unusually testy here today – someone must not be taking their meds. You guys need to calm down on the neighborhood watch stuff, its coming. If you want to be a harpy and attack me on it everyday or hour its not on this “wonderful blog” go ahead.
As for his council staff campaigning on city time – I triple dare you to find that – in fact I’ll pay you 100 bucks if you can prove it. Because it ain’t happening – they are taking a leave of absence, so calm down dum-dums.
As for hiring new staff – all you guys have to do is call their office and ask – unless you think they are too rude for you. As for getting mad when people disagree with you, well no defense for that except to say we are all humans. You know Gray Davis got criticized for not having any emotions, for being too much of a robot. As it stands I know people in every council office who can be replaced – for being rude. But that’s what happens when you hire humans. Now I am not trying to defend them all, but come on give me something better. You are attacking Antonio for something you can’t prove, a fact that can’t be researched, just opinion.
But that’s what blogs are for –
Blog away
FROM MEAT:
Hmm let's see a guy has a mtg with the Governor and he gets blasted and his name changed. Nice.
Rough and Tumble world of blogging i suppose.
As to the above references of me -- whoever remembers me from the 4th floor - wow, but yes there will be a ton of info coming out for you guys to digest and call me a liar over -- as you tend to do.
So Antonio got himself a blog, and i even noticed they published a small criticism that the campaign even answered. Perhaps I shall post on their and as well – Since mayor Sam doesn’t let me have my own posting only comments. But if I post, what happens to the untarnished reputation I’ve built up claiming to not be an Antonio staffer? Nothing, because I am not on their payroll. Dum-dums.
THIS WAS POSTED ON 1/11 FROM MEAT AND IS WORTHY OF REPEATING. READ BETWEEN THE LINES...
Let's see, Cynthia Ruiz doesn't donate a single penny to Antonio's campaign, yet according to folks on this blog she was campaiging for him. Now that she was booted off the commission and replaced by Yolanda Fuentes (who by the way missed her 2nd week on the job, nice start yolie), she helps a candiate for mayor now that she's allowed too, and yet somehow this proves your old point of her campaiging for Antonio when she was a commissioner? I don't get it.
As for Alvin Parra doing a stupid thing during his wife's campaign -- ok i'll give you that. He wrote a memo that he shouldn't have, but to say that because of a bad memo written this somehow makes Antonio look bad -- wow, wheres the beef?
If its a case of who you hang with is who you are like -- than Hahn hanging out with a bunch of corrupt people like Fitzgerald (a hahn donor now a fugitive, since he has left the country) and O'Donnell where there's a huge investigation on him. Nevermind the fact that some of the largest fines ever issued by the Ethics commission are being handed down one by one to Hahn's donors, must mean by your thinking that Hahn is a criminal, money-launderer and corrupt politician. If you think that -- then you sir, agree 100% with me.
TALK ABOUT OUR CURRENT CORRUPTION OF MAYOR STAFF AND HIS COMMISSIONERS USING CITY TIME TO HELP HAHN WIN SO THEY CAN ALL KEEP THEIR JOBS. I DON'T HEAR ANYONE SAYING ANYTHING ABOUT THAT. THEY ARE ALL PROBABLY READING MAYOR SAM'S BLOG ON CITY TIME. GET IT!
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