New Hampshire Prediction: Barack and Mitt

"I am so honored to have had this opportunity. Though this campaign is ending, I will continue to fight for change for working families and to elect a Democrat in November."

Okay its doesn't take much in the way of genius to predict that Barack Obama will win the Democratic Primary. Obama's margin of victory will be big, somewhere between 11-13 points. This will add further fuel to the Hillary is dropping out stories that began floating today. Hillary didn't help matters any by crying.

On the other hand John McCain will not - as conventional wisdom might say - win the primary. This is due to the same factor that boosts Obama's margin - maverick, moderate Republicans who will - as is allowed under New Hampshire law - cross over to vote for Barack. Partly, due to the rock star appeal of Obama, partly as a way to stick it to the Clinton's. The loss of moderate voters in the Republican primary boosts Romney's chances; as well as the fact that Romney is quite popular with Republicans in this state that neighbors his home of Massachusetts.

Within the next seven days - maybe as early as Wednesday we'll see Fred Thompson and Bill Richardson drop out. There will be no need yet for also rans such as Dennis Kucinich, Mike Gravel or Ron Paul to drop out - that's one of the advantages of being a lower tier candidate - you can stay in longer.

The upcoming Michigan GOP primary will go to Romney (his father was Governor there and his brother, a former candidate for Attorney General servers on the Board of Trustees for Michigan State University). Hillary once had a commanding lead there but with African Americans making up a significant portion of the Democratic electorate, Barack will repeat his winning formula.

Following that, wins in South Carolina should go to Huckabee and Obama and Nevada shows promise for Clinton (unless a major contingent of California Democrats led by Valley Doll manage to travel to the Silver State to stage a major effort for Obama) and will be an easy win for McCain. All that leads up to Florida where Giuliani will appeal to former New Yorkers and Cubans and likely win. Hillary should have won Florida big - and could still best Obama - but the three weeks between now and then will be very tough on her and she will have a hard time restraining Obama-mania from infecting the Sunshine State.

I predict that Hillary will drop out just after Super Tuesday when Obama will likely kick ass in just about every state but perhaps New York and New Jersey.